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961  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2023/24 on: January 27, 2024, 04:18:03 PM
If I remember correctly, oddly enough, Almeria is a slight favorite in this game (with a probability of winning something around 40%). Despite the fact that Alaves have almost three times as many points. Maybe the bookmakers don’t believe that the only zero in the standings (all other teams have at least one win/draw/loss) can last that long, or there is some information about injuries in Alaves, I don’t follow the basement in detail so I don’t I can say for sure.
Almeria have not won a single win so far in twenty-one matches and this is something that is very surprising and could be said to be their performance being the worst among other relegated team. Almeria only won 6 points because of the draw and were already 5 points behind the team above them and 9 point behind the team 3rd from the bottom (Cadiz).
Favoring Almeria there is nothing wrong because playing at home, maybe it could be their hope to catch up because Almeria has managed to hold Girona the current leader of the standing, to a draw and that is quite astonishing, while Alavés performance with Girona is different, so I think Almeria can beat Alavés and maybe with a score of 1:0

Various unpleasant series happen, for example, last year Cadiz could not score a goal for about 10 games, but in the end they learned  Grin and were even able to avoid relegation from La Liga. But 6 points for Almeria look like a death sentence, considering that everyone was wrong (including the bookmakers) and Alaves won 3-0. Almeria, in my opinion, no longer even has a theoretical chance of avoiding getting into the segunda.
To my surprise, after the first half in the Las Palmas - Real game, the score is still 0-0 and the odds for Real to win are already 1.61. Considering that I predicted a 3-0 victory for Real Madrid, the likelihood that I was wrong in my forecast is high.
962  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA World Cup 2026 :Canada/Mexico/United States: Discussion Thread on: January 27, 2024, 03:34:54 PM
I think since then professional sports have gone so far that we cannot compare players from those times with modern ones (I suspect that a team of modern average players would simply destroy a team of Maradona, Pele, Garinchi, Yashin, etc. simply due to training in team tactics and knowledge of statistics on the profitability of actions), it only makes sense to compare how much stronger they were than their generation. And here (again due to the lower level of team play) Maradona is definitely one of the tops in the entire history of football.
The few games I have watched where these players featured show that they had natural talents that set them above their peers. Maradona and Pele were extraordinarily gifted and their presence in a team tended to change the results. A key example is Pele whose efforts were instrumental to the winning of the 1970 World Cup. Another quality of these great players is their uncommon strength. They were able to excel in poor sporting facilities and other challenges that current footballers don't face. I assume that the olden days players will beat these modern-day players because of their uncommon strength and talents.   

No way. I think if the average modern footballer is sent back to the past, he will be like Maradona and Pele combined, progress has gone too far ahead, the ability to find himself in the right areas for a pass is now a calculated thing and not a scoring instinct as it was before, like many other tactical skills. As for the technique of working with the ball, dribbling, etc. then modern football players who have done nothing but work with the ball since childhood will be better than any master from the old days. The only thing I agree with is that comparisons in power wrestling may not be in favor of modern football players, since now the rules prohibit even potentially dangerous techniques (like tackles from behind), but previously wrestling was such that football players regularly received fractures and serious injuries. It is far from a fact that a modern footballer, after a couple of such injuries, would not end his career or would simply be able to play in such conditions.
963  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: January 27, 2024, 03:25:49 PM
As a Juventus fan I can say with certainty that the least I expect, as a fan, is that next year we can play in the European cups again, therefore the Champions League.
The scudetto would be nice, but I consider it a kind of bonus: it`s not easy with this strong Inter.

As a football fan I say, ok nice that at least two teams are fighting for the title. In short, there are many nuances about it.

I’m not a Juventus fan, but I would think the other way around - firstly, it’s more realistic to win the Scudetto than the Champions League and this is what Juventus is used to (although they haven’t been able to win this title for three years now). Secondly, participation in the Champions League itself does not mean anything, many clubs participate in the Champions League every year and there is nothing special about it (except for finances, of course, hehe), you need to think about winning the title, which Juventus last had 28 years ago. In fact, for such a high-status club, such poor results in the European Cups can be called a “great drought”.
964  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: January 27, 2024, 03:11:56 PM
In Europe League, Bayern Leverkusen have impressive performance not only unbeaten but also won 6 of 6 matches, its very fantastic achieving under Xabi Alonso Bayern Leverkusen success become strongest team not only in Bundesliga but also have consistency performance in Europe League. Usually injury will be serious problem for all manager but Alonso have doing well with composition teams and not large difference between main and reserve players.

So excited if Bayern Leverkusen win the Bundesliga tittle for this season with unbeaten record and have made by other top european teams Arsenal in season 2002 winning domestic league without get losses yet.

By the way, yes, not every top club has this rare achievement in their treasury (in fact, I don’t even know who besides Arsenal has such an achievement)  Cheesy it seems that Juventus and Barcelona have such an achievement (and if you dig deep into history, then probably many clubs).
But it’s too early to say that Bayer is close to this - they have 16 games left until the end of the season, and even if in each game their odds of winning or drawing were 1.1 (which is hardly a fair average), then the odds are that they will finish the season without defeats would be 1.116=4.59 If you calculate their chances with a more realistic figure of 1.2, you get about 18.5 - this is a small probability.
965  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: January 27, 2024, 02:55:42 PM
I think maybe Liverpool should prepare some suitable candidates to replace Klopp at the end of the season which will end in a few months. so that several of the selected candidates could immediately fill the coaching vacancy when Klopp left Liverpool. BTW, talking about Klopp having made the choice to retire from the world of football and stop as Liverpool coach really surprised everyone, especially Liverpool supporters.
~

Klopp notified the club's management that he would leave at the end of the season back in November last year, so it is obvious that they are already looking for someone to replace him. And I don’t think that Klopp is going to end his career and leave football completely - otherwise why did he promise that he would never coach any other club in the Premier League except Liverpool? Such a promise means that at the moment he sees himself in football after some time. Maybe after a rest he will really switch to coaching work in some national team, there is less workload and this may be a calmer job for his temperament.
966  Local / Oбcyждeниe Bitcoin / Re: Потребительские свойства биткоина on: January 27, 2024, 02:20:54 PM
~ Разговор о потребительских свойствах биткойна, как мне кажется, касается и производных инструментов на его основе, но ни как не касается философских рассуждений о "сущности бытия". Я - потребитель, именно из этого факта строю жизненную стратегию и своё отношение к окружающим меня вещам.

Вам как потребителю вроде бы важно уметь отличать колбасу от арбузов, сыр от лимонда и т.д., ну чтоб правильно (и с выгодой о которой вы печетесь) потреблять. И вот тут очень важно понимать что биткоин и его производные это не просто разные вещи, а скорее диаметрально противоположные по свойствам так как биткоин создавался для того чтобы не иметь в себе свойств которыми обладают его производные.
Именно поэтому я вам посоветовал в ваших смелых подсчетах транзакций битка учитывать еще и транзакции Визы и стейблов с троне/солане.
Вы в ответ начали рассказывать про битки которые вне сети биткоина циркулируют  Grin Дело конечно личное (с точки зрения потребителя, с технической точки зрения тут нет двух мнений, а есть одно правильное), но мне кажется вы сыр с лимонадом все-таки перепутали.
967  Local / Oбcyждeниe Bitcoin / Re: «Грязные» биткойны on: January 27, 2024, 02:05:52 PM
По сути "белый" Биткоин это только Биткоин непосредственно только что добытый майнерами, ещё совсем без истории.
~

Только вот если вы гражданин США (или множества других стран) а биток добыт в Иране, то за такой биток можно вообще в тюрьму уехать очень надолго за нарушение запрета иметь дела с санкционными странами.

Я же говорю, пока нет справки, не защищен никто (ну кроме крупных игроков или тех кто может провернуть такие трюки как обосновать свои транзакции пятилетней давности хотя и тут гарантий нет). Так что ждем появления такого сервиса, это будет красивой вишенкой на торте криптоанархии  Roll Eyes
968  Local / Майнеры / Re: Глобальные новости крипто-майнинга on: January 27, 2024, 01:52:57 PM

Не пойму в чем новость  Smiley Рентабельность майнинга всегда стремится к определенному эффективному значению (грубо говоря нулю за прибавкой инфляции), поэтому уполовинивание доходов просто обязано отправить в убытки вообще всех майнеров (при неизменности стоимости битка). Это уже обсуждалось миллион раз. После халвинга в деле останутся самые эффективные, а убыточные отключатся. Единственное что может сломать этот паттерн это рост цены битка.
969  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: January 26, 2024, 06:18:27 PM
Today I saw this sad news:


Jürgen Klopp has announced his decision to step down as #LFC manager at the end of the season, having informed the club’s ownership of his wish to leave his position in the summer.


source: https://www.instagram.com/p/C2j3-koNBj2/

 Sad Sad
~

I was surprised by how he justified his decision - constant fatigue and the realization that his resources were not endless, so he decided to leave before it became necessary. Extremely professional and gentlemanly approach. It turns out that he simply burned out (which is not surprising given his emotionality). I hope that a season or two of rest will do him good and he will return to football, because he is only 56 years old and he is far from the oldest coach among those who lead top clubs.
Now we are waiting for exciting news about who will lead Liverpool in the summer, today I have already seen several of these. I hope those who make up the news will concentrate on this issue and we will forget about Mbappe  Grin
970  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: January 26, 2024, 06:01:22 PM

Firstly, 4 points is a huge advantage, those who think otherwise are simply lazy - it's enough to look at how many points the two leaders lose on average per game to realize that 4 points is a lot.
Secondly, Dortmund is a bad example - they always have a large randomness of results no matter what. Even when they are not under potential pressure, they may unexpectedly lose to an underdog. Bayer, after they were led by Xabi, plays smoothly and I don’t see any prerequisites for mental problems (after all, this coach knows everything about this and will be able to support the team psychologically if necessary).

Mostly I have to agree with you.
But you are forgetting 1 thing, history. In Germany Leverkusen has a nickname, "Vizekusen" ( vice ) .
It's because several times in their history they have been there, with a chance to win it all, but they always failed.

Of course this is a different team now but still it might get to their head.
Also 4 points, that's not a lot if Bayern actually starts winning. They still play each other so even if they both win all other games and Bayern beats Leverkusen it's only 1 point. And we know what can happen if the nerves show themselves, we saw it with Dortmund last year.
You are so close, you can feel the cup in your hands already, and then it all comes crashing down.

Actually I am still convinced Leverkusen will throw it away and Bayern will win. I hope I am wrong because I am a Dortmund fan for 30 years now, and I if not BVB I want to see any other team on top other than Bayern, and Schalke of course but they are not relevant playing in the 2nd league.  Grin

History does not play on the field, if compared with the past, Bayern is also far from being the team that once won the Champions League and was in the final almost every year. I remember Ribery’s words that it was very unusual for him to watch the Champions League final on TV and not play in it.
Bayern may or may not start winning consistently, or Bayer may not drop points - there are many possible futures. I just suggest paying attention to the facts: at the current rate of scoring, 4 points in the confrontation between these teams is a lot.
By the way, everyone who believes in Bayern until the very end can bet that they will win the title - the odds are becoming more and more favorable
971  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: January 26, 2024, 11:40:27 AM
Interesting statistics from Deloitte: Last season, among the clubs with the highest income, 6 were from the Premier League. City lost first place to Real Madrid (actually the difference is insignificant), but what surprised me most was the fact that United is in fifth place, ahead of Bayern and Liverpool  Grin
https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/sports-business-group/articles/deloitte-football-money-league.html

Still, the strength of the brand is of great importance - United is far from consistently showing high sporting results, but at the same time in terms of business it is one of the best clubs. By the way, if you take away PSG (which is artificially pumped up with money through sponsorship contracts), then United is generally fourth.
972  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: January 26, 2024, 11:23:40 AM
Yes, you are right, but it also works the other way: no matter how well you play, you score a maximum of 3 points, so if Bayer plays well enough, then nothing depends on the efforts of Bayern, since even if they win in a head-to-head meeting, they will behind by one point. In addition, Bayern scored only one goal in two games with a large number of scoring chances, if this is a trend, then with such efficiency unexpected losses of points will be regular.

Even if Bayer Leverkusen can maintain their lead (which admittedly is not really big at 4 points) until the last few games, the question is whether they can withstand the increasing pressure mentally. A good blueprint is Dortmund last year, who had an excellent run and made up 9 points on Bayern and just had to win on the last matchday against a previously weakening team at home to become a long awaited Bundesliga Champion again, but they couldn't withstand the pressure and lost what they thought was a certain championship.

Firstly, 4 points is a huge advantage, those who think otherwise are simply lazy - it's enough to look at how many points the two leaders lose on average per game to realize that 4 points is a lot.
Secondly, Dortmund is a bad example - they always have a large randomness of results no matter what. Even when they are not under potential pressure, they may unexpectedly lose to an underdog. Bayer, after they were led by Xabi, plays smoothly and I don’t see any prerequisites for mental problems (after all, this coach knows everything about this and will be able to support the team psychologically if necessary).
973  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: January 26, 2024, 11:14:20 AM
This season is best one for Juventus to lift Scudetto again because they only play in Serie A and can take advantage of it to beat Inter Milan through a long season.  Inter Milan are strong and stands at the first position but they might be affected more by Champions League matches in coming months. In contrast, Juventus won't have that distraction and with 100% focus on Serie A, they will potentially play better than Inter Milan and win the league.
~

I wrote a long time ago that Juventus has an advantage in that they concentrate on one tournament, while competitors during the playoff stage in European competition will give their maximum effort there and play “on a residual basis” in Serie A.
Bookmakers also greatly overestimate Inter now - I agree that Inter is the favorite, but before a personal meeting with Juventus (second), based on statistics (they really have the best in Serie A), giving them the title with a 70% probability is too unfair.
974  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA World Cup 2026 :Canada/Mexico/United States: Discussion Thread on: January 26, 2024, 07:59:07 AM
I have never seen Maradona play on live TV. All I have seen are a few recorded videos on YouTube and TV. But back then, the TV coverage was of poor quality and it is quite difficult to get a real measurement of his skillset. In case of players such as Pele, such material is even more scarce. All we know about them is sourced from a few match reports and books. Given this, it is very difficult to compare someone in this generation such as Messi, to someone from the old generation like Maradona. Only someone like Claudio Caniggia can make that comparison, since he has seen both of them in action.

I think since then professional sports have gone so far that we cannot compare players from those times with modern ones (I suspect that a team of modern average players would simply destroy a team of Maradona, Pele, Garinchi, Yashin, etc. simply due to training in team tactics and knowledge of statistics on the profitability of actions), it only makes sense to compare how much stronger they were than their generation. And here (again due to the lower level of team play) Maradona is definitely one of the tops in the entire history of football.
975  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2023/24 on: January 26, 2024, 07:48:24 AM
It is almost impossible for Almeria to survive relegation with the number of points gained by them at this point of the season ongoing currently. After 21 games played and still without getting a single victory, I think Almeria will continue their horrible performance and lose another game in front of their home fans when they play against Deportivo Alaves today.

If I remember correctly, oddly enough, Almeria is a slight favorite in this game (with a probability of winning something around 40%). Despite the fact that Alaves have almost three times as many points. Maybe the bookmakers don’t believe that the only zero in the standings (all other teams have at least one win/draw/loss) can last that long, or there is some information about injuries in Alaves, I don’t follow the basement in detail so I don’t I can say for sure.
976  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: January 26, 2024, 07:25:53 AM
PSG's new transfer is Gabriel Moscardo. The 18-year-old player was purchased from Corinthians for 22 million Euro, including bonuses. The Brazilian midfielder will remain on loan at Corinthians until June, before joining PSG the following season. I hadn't heard of other clubs for this transfer. PSG may have done an important job, but we will see in the future. It's too early to talk right now because what players are bought every year, many of them disappear because they can't deliver what they want.

Compared to the fact that, for example, Real bought 16-year-old Endrick for 70 million euros, this purchase really looks ordinary, especially considering that Moscardo is already 18 and his prospects as a player look more understandable. Probably, PSG are counting either on his rapid progress and then he will immediately receive playing time at PSG, or they will give him away for a season or two so that he gets used to Europe. But you are right, many such talented players end up in Europe every year and most of them do not become stars (which, however, does not prevent them from earning huge money).
977  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Europa League 2023/24 Season on: January 26, 2024, 07:16:50 AM
The news about Mohammed Salah's injury is really hot at the moment, both in the Premier League media and also in the Egyptian media because Moh Salah is Liverpool's star player so his injury is in the public spotlight. And yes, it is reported that he will be out for a longer time due to the injury he suffered is a hamstring injury, which means the injury is not playing games and we know that hamstring injuries are one of the injuries that many football players fear. Liverpool may still be doing well in the Premier League, but what would happen in the European League without Moh Salah? I hope that before that match, Moh Salah will recover and return to strengthening Liverpool.

Jurgen Kloop has brought Salah back to Liverpool to carry out better treatment so that Moh Salah can recover quickly because Salah is a very important player for Liverpool, therefore Liverpool provides good medical treatment. And hopefully the medical team can do their best so that Moh Salah doesn't miss the match for too long.

Sad news, initially it was reported that Salah will miss only a couple of games of the African Cup and will help his team in the playoffs, but now it is obvious that he will not have time to recover even if Egypt reaches the final (which is very doubtful with the game they show - zero wins, three draws ). In general, Klopp should be super angry at how everything turned out: in fact, Salah went to the African Cup to get injured there and cause maximum problems for the club. Salah, along with Haaland, is the top scorer in the Premier League at the moment (they have 14 goals each), the second top scorer in Liverpool is Nunez (he has only 7 goals).
978  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: January 26, 2024, 06:50:56 AM
Controversial issue. PSG plays in the Champions League every year, but Sociedad plays with Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atlético several times every year (twice in La Liga + sometimes in the Cups). It’s hard for me to say which experience is more important - the game with Benfica in the group stage or the game with Real Madrid, which is fighting for the title in La Liga. In Ligue 1 there are also clubs that play in the Champions League, but you know very well that they never claim anything, these clubs change like in a kaleidoscope and PSG clearly cannot get in Ligue 1 the same experience that Sociedad gets in La Liga.

League experience is not sufficient for any team to have the final victory in this matchup. The atmosphere of playing in the champions league is different from what we see in the league games irrespective of the league they’re playing from. PSG have the experience of the champions league and have been dominant in Ligue 1 back to back yearly. Real Soceidad on the other hand have no much prior experience of the champions league than PSG, so also, they can’t say to be the most dominant in La Liga even though they finished in the top four last season. I will be much reserved in the outcome of this match but will all facts on ground, PSG are the best team to win this match in both legs they’re going to be playing.

And that PSG gains a lot from their dominance in Ligue 1 or from their “experience” in the Champions League? For the second year in a row, they cannot even win their group, losing to outsiders (last year to Benfica, and this year to Dortmund). Of course, Sociedad is the underdog in this pair, but as I wrote above, they have extensive and regular experience of playing as an underdog against top teams and I don’t think that these games will be a walk in the park for PSG.
979  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Do you believe in gambling experts predictions? on: January 25, 2024, 09:11:58 PM
Not only some, but the vast majority of them.

The most probable outcome when betting is to lose money.

Of course this is not something gamblers like to read or listen to. It makes the whole fantasy collapse and you see how the sausage is made sort of thing.

At the end of the day, as long as you have fun gambling, and you are not putting all your money into it, it's all fun and games.

Dreamers of big earnings find it difficult to listen to even “positive” truths like: if you work hard in this area, keep track of the best offers, count different options constantly to find a profit, then per year you can make 20% profit on your invested funds. From the point of view of dreamers, 20% is a ridiculous income per year (even if they live in a developed country where inflation is low and banks offer 2-3% profit on a deposit) and they are not ready to work for it. It’s easier for them to lose money (lose 100% of their investment), but then console themselves with the dream of how one day they will be lucky and get rich without working.
980  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Europa League 2023/24 Season on: January 25, 2024, 09:02:42 PM
If we take the season before this, there will also be an interesting pair in the final: Eintracht - Rangers. Although clubs such as Napoli, Barcelona, Dortmund, Lazio, etc. could be there. Now compare the randomness in the Europa League with the stability in the Champions League where not only the semi-finals, but even the quarter-finals consist of almost the same clubs every year. This is not an accident, but a pattern, so in the Europa League, betting on favorites does not compensate for the risk, I think here you need to bet on underdogs, either with a bonus or live to maximize your odds.

I think going with the underdogs can make sense because the teams that usually play in the Champions League seem to not be taking the competition seriously eough. Last season I was so sure that Arsenal would probably win the Europa League, but no. Teams like Barcelona got eliminated as well despite being such a big name, but Sevilla took the competition as serious as they could. Nobody expected them to eliminate all these favorite teams like Manchester United, but they were superior to all of them. It wasn't luck, it was serious effort by Sevilla.

If it weren't for Sevilla's status as a club that historically dominates the Europa League, I would say that they were just lucky, but unfortunately they won that final (by the way, Mourinho still thinks that Roma won hahaha) and this destroys the whole "logic" of the second tournament in Europe. In general, betting against favorites is good in such competitions that are not particularly interesting to the favorites, but do not forget that bookmakers also know about this and you can get favorable odds either with different boosts or live when they are jumping, sometimes it is completely illogical. This is not an easy market to make money, but it is quite interesting.
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