Martin Armstrong Discussion

[Kiwibird]

Just some points I found re using the ECM dates..

http://www.economicconfidencemodels.com

"..The primary mistake many make with the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is assuming it should be a perfect model for the stock market, gold, or some other market. It is a global model and does not track any individual market. It is tracking the phenomenon of international capital flows. There is a shift back and forth between PUBLIC and PRIVATE investment trends.

Capital concentrates into a single region and then into a single market. There is a cycle to this as well from within a region such as the hot market will be real estate, bonds, stocks, commodities, and then back to real estate. What makes a bubble is this concentration of capital. However, every market retains its own cycle and it is when that cycle lines up with the ECM that we get the big booms and busts.

The key to understanding the ECM is this global capital concentration.

ts proper use of the ECM is to understand that it is NOT a model based upon a single market and it should not be attempted to force fit this model to any individual market. The key is to watch the individual market that is lining up with the ECM and that is where the most intense capital flow will be moving.

So it is by no means geared to a single market nor should it be presumed to be a perfect model for an individual market. Each market has its own cycle. These are what we show in the Forecast Arrays which are not based on the ECM. It is the correlation of the individual market cycles to the ECM that we discovery where capital will flow to next.

By no means try to use this for a individual market unless that market lines up with the ECM. As you can see, all the things that turn with the ECM over years is based upon capital concentration. It is inherent within the economic structure that we live..."

So in relation to the ECM date 2015.75...he's said before it ferments the peak in Government (https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-bond-bubble-confirmed/) "..This 2015.75 turn should be the start of BIG BANG and this should be market with the low in interest rates that ferments the peak in the bond bubble. Each 8.6 year wave produces a bubble, yet in a different sector. It is never the same thing twice...."  And he wrote this months before that actual ECM date. 
He didn't say that date would be a crash of some sort, just the 'start' of the Big Bang.  But sometimes the actual date does relate to a high/low in a particular market as in 87. 
Ever since 2015.75 interest rates have started to increase.  The worm has turned with the ECM date related to that market.

[The Beast1]

Beast, as Armstrong says, just follow the numbers. You don't need ANYTHING else. If a Reversal is elected, it should test the next one. He adds commentary and such but that does not mean the commentary is a trade signal. When prices close above or below the point is he gives, that is the trade signal. I already mentioned, multiple times, how Armstrong clearly called this October crash near the end of September and the closes required to enter the trade. Reversals are black and white. There is no ambiguity involved. Arrays are different but you don't need them and Armstrong is hit or miss with those anyway. Follow the numbers and you make money. I really dont get what is so hard about that particular. Reversals can be measured objectively. I already posted the max P/L  structure of what would happen if one followed his call this October.

What post was this? The only blog post that I see where he called this was this one:

The Dow for Week of 09/24/18
By: Marty ArmstrongMonday, September 24, 2018



We did not OPEN above last week's high so we may move into a low next week to retest support. This is what we mean that the consolidation is not yet over. The Breakout Channel on the Weekly level stood at 26692.21 on the bottom and the market reached intraday 26769.16. It did close slight into the channel, but that was not yet enough to signal the breakout.






On the daily level, we are trading within the Breakout Channel but have not pushed through the top. This allows plenty of room to retest the bottom-side of the channel.

We have a Daily Bearish at 26067 and a closing below that will signal a retest of support. The first Weekly Bearish lies at 25877 so this is where key support begins. AT the end of this week we also have the month-end closing. The Monthly bearish do not begin until below 24000.

One of the curiosities of the market behavior relative to our Reversals has been how critical reversals once elected reverse direction and become critical support. We have stood by and watched the 1362 level in gold stand on a monthly closing basis and 1341 on a quarterly closing come hell or high water. Now the 25800 in the Dow may be critical in general as support. If we tend to retest that area yet hold into year-end, then we could be creating a platform for a Vertical Market. That is not yet confirmed. Just keep this in mind and observing the remainder of the year.\

For month end close this Friday, we see support moving into October forming at the 25500-25000 level. Closing resistance will stand 26620. A closing ABOVE that may signal a rally into November.

Keep in mind that while we have craziness going on in Washington with the Deep State Coup slowly becoming exposed, the insanity in Europe is not to be ignored. We also have the Democrats in the USA secretly advocating war against Russia behind the curtain as retribution for Hillary's emails. Keep in mind this is very much like being blamed for coming home early to catch a thief in your home and then he blames you for returning early.

Today, we have support at the 26315 level and we are trading at 26584 at the time of this post. A close below 26519 today will warn of a further decline tomorrow is possible. The key target in time this week  is split Wed/Thurs and this is followed by Monday Oct 1st with a Panic Cycle the next day.

Once again, the failure to open above last week's high signals a retest of support is likely.

All I see are three random outcomes with weasel words about what might happen. Not cold hard predictions.

Do you have access to his trader platform?

Just like the Farmer's Almanac, the last I checked, September and October are historically rocky times of the year for the stock market. Ironically, the "Stock Trader's Almanac claims that October months near a midterm were always seasonally rocky" https://www.marketwatch.com/story/should-investors-fear-october-a-historic-jinx-month-for-stocks-2018-09-26

I say let's do an experiment. You post the numbers for his next reversal prediction with clear instructions in plain English minus his crazy commentary and let's see if I make money. I don't want past P/L, I want a new play right now with real money as the stakes. I apologize that I am not smart enough. Please spoon feed me in the ways of this master because I really truly want to believe in his process!

Because if it is accurate, then there needs to be someone out there who can translate his ramblings into actionable advice. I'm getting sick of "following the numbers" when he's obscuring the numbers behind useless commentary.

Hopefully my disillusionment stems from my own inability to read between the lines of what he is saying. As it stands, he hides behind a lot of commentary and useless information which to me speaks volumes to me about the accuracy of what he is saying.

He should be letting the numbers speak on their own without padding each post with some useless political commentary. Yes I agree with it, no I don't want to read about it when analyzing the numbers!

[The Beast1]

Yeah, I was referring to the September 24th post. But also note the other one's week of 10/1 turning point call, which was the high. Again though, it's hit or miss.

Yeah I'll post the Reversal signals when they come. They don't happen often but only a few trades are needed anyway.

No, I don't have the trader version. I know of someone who claims to have the trader beta version from a WEC but I didn't see it.

See, this is what annoys me. If it's not then why bother? I might as well trade on a roll of the dye or go back to using MACD lines and fibonacci traces.

But really, I'm happy to play with some cash to see if his system works and I really appreciate your help in deciphering this.

[trc4949]

Hey beast 1  if you want more precision forecasts then I highly recommend you look into harmonic patterns .  This entire decline was tipped off by a huge bearish crab pattern with a very precise stop level , short entry right at the high

[The Beast1]

Bikefront and Trc,

Thanks gents.

Really my frustration stems from people who take his political predictions way too seriously and cite his market predictions as evidence he knows what he's talking about. Once I started really looking at what he said, I've started to really doubt everything he says. The fact he was arrested makes me think the feds really did have him on a crime.

Regardless, back to my classic charting techniques.

[MA_talk]

Just some points I found re using the ECM dates..

http://www.economicconfidencemodels.com

"..The primary mistake many make with the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is assuming it should be a perfect model for the stock market, gold, or some other market. It is a global model and does not track any individual market. It is tracking the phenomenon of international capital flows. There is a shift back and forth between PUBLIC and PRIVATE investment trends.

Capital concentrates into a single region and then into a single market. There is a cycle to this as well from within a region such as the hot market will be real estate, bonds, stocks, commodities, and then back to real estate. What makes a bubble is this concentration of capital. However, every market retains its own cycle and it is when that cycle lines up with the ECM that we get the big booms and busts.

The key to understanding the ECM is this global capital concentration.

ts proper use of the ECM is to understand that it is NOT a model based upon a single market and it should not be attempted to force fit this model to any individual market. The key is to watch the individual market that is lining up with the ECM and that is where the most intense capital flow will be moving.

So it is by no means geared to a single market nor should it be presumed to be a perfect model for an individual market. Each market has its own cycle. These are what we show in the Forecast Arrays which are not based on the ECM. It is the correlation of the individual market cycles to the ECM that we discovery where capital will flow to next.

By no means try to use this for a individual market unless that market lines up with the ECM. As you can see, all the things that turn with the ECM over years is based upon capital concentration. It is inherent within the economic structure that we live..."

So in relation to the ECM date 2015.75...he's said before it ferments the peak in Government (https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-bond-bubble-confirmed/) "..This 2015.75 turn should be the start of BIG BANG and this should be market with the low in interest rates that ferments the peak in the bond bubble. Each 8.6 year wave produces a bubble, yet in a different sector. It is never the same thing twice...."  And he wrote this months before that actual ECM date. 
He didn't say that date would be a crash of some sort, just the 'start' of the Big Bang.  But sometimes the actual date does relate to a high/low in a particular market as in 87. 
Ever since 2015.75 interest rates have started to increase.  The worm has turned with the ECM date related to that market.

You don't call something that you canNOT define.  What is the "start of the big bang"?  What is the peak of government confidence?  If I say that the confidence in Armstrong starts waning in 2015.75, that is just total BS!!  I can't even define or measure the confidence in Armstrong.  How can I even pinpoint the start?

So unless the government confidence is tied specifically to some financial instrument or a combination of some instruments, that statement alone is just baloney.  Did Armstrong EVER define the government confidence specifically?  No, because if he ever did that, the readers will most likely find out that his statement wasn't true.  So instead, it's far better to make the readers confused and hanging in there.

Just my opinions.  And you are free to think on your own.

[MA_talk]

MA, I did actually use a small account with real money to trade using purely Armstrong's predictions. I made a gain of 600% in 2 days before blowing up on a gap that went the wrong way on 0 day SPX options. Each trade was all in. It was excessively stupid, but an interesting experiment nonetheless. Of couse, it would be difficult to ascern validity with such a small amount of time and virtually no risk management. Had I used normal weekly options, I would have ended up with a gain. My own trading style is quite different, and I do not use the indexes.

So shall we claim success on the 600% in 2 days, or should we claim a failure on a blow-up after that?

My point here is that whether it's your performance or Armstrong's performance, it needs to be measured with a pre-defined criterion.

If we define gain as equal amount of trade entered on a daily basis, then based on that 3 day performance, that would average out to be (600%+0%) / 3 = 200%, not bad at all.

If we define gain as accumulative continual re-investment of the capital back into successive trade, then you would get -100% return at the end, which is not good at all.

Figuring out different hypothesis on Armstrong's writing to be tested will actually help one to sort out the best thing that one can glean from his confusing writing, and hone in the trading strategies.  It is certainly possible that there is something that can be fished out from Armstrong's trading experiences for real profits.  Unfortunately, I feel like it's far easier to look at MACD, RSI, Moving Average, and other technical indicators.  They are just black and white and well-defined.  I don't need to twist my brain around, and try to figure out that is the dip before the slingshot coming or not, or is this the dip, or ....

[sidhujag]

Sid, as I stated, the sample size for the number of trades was low. But at the same time, that doesn't mean it was luck. Only that it was not possible to derive a conclusion from said sample size. As stated, the trade would have been profitable had I used normal weekly instead of 0 day expiries.

TRC, as the other guy said, it's just a what if scenario. He comments on those, but he specifically said there is no indication of that. No Monthly Bearish Reversal has ever been elected so far in all this year's volatility.

Beast, as Armstrong says, just follow the numbers. You don't need ANYTHING else. If a Reversal is elected, it should test the next one. He adds commentary and such but that does not mean the commentary is a trade signal. When prices close above or below the point is he gives, that is the trade signal. I already mentioned, multiple times, how Armstrong clearly called this October crash near the end of September and the closes required to enter the trade. Reversals are black and white. There is no ambiguity involved. Arrays are different but you don't need them and Armstrong is hit or miss with those anyway. Follow the numbers and you make money. I really dont get what is so hard about that particular. Reversals can be measured objectively. I already posted the max P/L  structure of what would happen if one followed his call this October.

can you refer me to the post on this backtest? how many points and over how long? Again the edge isnt usually following some system blindly.. its YOU and thr money management YOU employ.. that is the secret to success..

[Thekees]

On Tuesday Socrates wrote this about the DAX

"Looking at the array, there is a potential for a further decline moving into 11/5 with the opposite trend thereafter into the week of November 19th."
Lines up with what we were discussing earlier about a 3 week rally back up to the bearish monthly reversal.

I have read these Socrates predictions a few times, some have been spot on while other the exact opposite happened, which is interesting. I haven´t traded them or monitored their success rate but I have saved the posts so I´l test win/success rate and post them here later today.

For Gold Socrates wrote that the two main targets to pay attention to are Mon. Nov. 19, 2018 and Mon. Dec. 3, 2018. Last week should have been a turning point which closed bearish, so according to this we should see a rally in to Nov. 19.

The turning points give by Socrates are not that useful on their own because they are constantly changing. For example, there will be a turning point predicted on week 5 then the week after its week 4 then it changes back to week 5 and then when we reach week 5 and you think its the turning point Socrates will post the that the next turning point is week 6!

[Thekees]

Hmm. I haven't been checking Socrates much these days. The changing turning points doesn't seem very useful. I've been moving away from those and going for Reversals more frequently. Still a few hours till market open, but looks like a gap up against me

I asked the Socrates team if the low was in for the Dow as Armstrong predicted and also complained about the unclearnes and ambiguity of his posts. This is what Erwin sent me.

hello

we did drop to 24122 close to the next set of reversals. Bouncing of the enxt set is ll what is expected by electing reversals or we continue taking the next ones out But time was up so the market turned. Dont trade of verbage or any comment. Watch teh numbers and Turning points .they are quit precise

So even he says just trades the numbers and ignores the comments!

Today should be a turning point and so is this week so we could still make a high today and then move lower again.

This is what Socrates posted on the DOW "Our projected resistance stands above the market at 2590679 and a closing above that is necessary to signal any strong further upside advance." The trend line for weekly from his Oct. 26 post points to resistance around the 26200 level.

I don´t know if the 25906 number is for a weekly or a daily close though, but if we reject it today, then the high will likely be in for the week since today is a turning point.

[Thekees]

Where did you get the 25800 from, I have it on my chart as elected bullish reversal from a while back and as a elected bearish daily.

[Thekees]

The Dow stopped right where the weekly technical support seemed to be at 26200.
Also as confirmation Socrates Global Market Watch indicates its Top High Close. I am guessing it means the high close for now, so with a turning point in  the daily and weekly array, this is probably a good place to short.

I have found the GMW on its own to be completely useless but Erwin says in the WEC presentation that it can be used as a confirmation tool, lets see how it goes.

[trc4949]

Any crash signals from Armstrong yet ?  market looks like it is about to lose support...

[NotFromReddit]

Any crash signals from Armstrong yet ?  market looks like it is about to lose support...

He's probably busy preparing for the ECM and won't make any meaningful posts until that's done.

[NotFromReddit]

Nope. I think the low's been seen already for the month, for the Dow at least. December is a turning point for some, but we'll see what he says. I use his general trend thesis stuff, but I don't rely on him.

Made a few trades and lost almost on everything. Shorted the real estate high which made up for all the losers, plus a decent gain. Came close to shorting the CMG high but decided not to open the trade Cut losers, run winners, is how you win the game. Set alerts where the highs/lows should be, then open the trade where the algos trigger stops- that is, where your stop would be is actually the entry because that is cases is where they overextend into a reversal. Although it doesn't have to be. Armstrong's stuff isn't bad I think, but if one doesn't see the trade, there's no need to go after it. Supply and demand trading is where it's at, seriously. The 2016 consolidation highs of MMM can be drawn on the chart straight across. That was the recent volatility's low where I had set an alert. Some stocks will have an incredibly obvious bounce point, and MMM was one of them. During volatility, I try trading those super obvious and untested major spots. If it hasn't been tested, it shouldn't simply break through on its first try, it should have a bounce. Managed to catch the bottom. Sold it too quick, but you get the main point though. If XLU gets to 56.22, that should be a good short area and go down to about 55.3, for example. Google should bounce at slightly over 900. My trading style is different so I only go after the Armstrong ones when I understand the technicals involved on my own charts.

Are you up or down for 2018? (YTD performance)

[trc4949]

The pei key date of November 21 is fast approaching and I cannot help think the market wants to plunge down into that date

I am a bit surprised he has not contemplated that scenario

Nope. I think the low's been seen already for the month, for the Dow at least. December is a turning point for some, but we'll see what he says. I use his general trend thesis stuff, but I don't rely on him.

[NotFromReddit]

Nope. I think the low's been seen already for the month, for the Dow at least. December is a turning point for some, but we'll see what he says. I use his general trend thesis stuff, but I don't rely on him.

Made a few trades and lost almost on everything. Shorted the real estate high which made up for all the losers, plus a decent gain. Came close to shorting the CMG high but decided not to open the trade Cut losers, run winners, is how you win the game. Set alerts where the highs/lows should be, then open the trade where the algos trigger stops- that is, where your stop would be is actually the entry because that is cases is where they overextend into a reversal. Although it doesn't have to be. Armstrong's stuff isn't bad I think, but if one doesn't see the trade, there's no need to go after it. Supply and demand trading is where it's at, seriously. The 2016 consolidation highs of MMM can be drawn on the chart straight across. That was the recent volatility's low where I had set an alert. Some stocks will have an incredibly obvious bounce point, and MMM was one of them. During volatility, I try trading those super obvious and untested major spots. If it hasn't been tested, it shouldn't simply break through on its first try, it should have a bounce. Managed to catch the bottom. Sold it too quick, but you get the main point though. If XLU gets to 56.22, that should be a good short area and go down to about 55.3, for example. Google should bounce at slightly over 900. My trading style is different so I only go after the Armstrong ones when I understand the technicals involved on my own charts.

Are you up or down for 2018? (YTD performance)

Breakeven actually still learning a lot of things, but getting better I hope. It's not easy

I'd consider breakeven a win given all the big losses you had earlier in the year. You mentioned that you went all in August Puts and lost a good chunk of your account. Most people end up losing all of it trying to get back to breakeven. You're doing well imo. Keep it up man. Keep posting trades.

[Thekees]

I am now long the DAX at 11368 with a stop at 11260 and my target is at least 11868.

As we have been discussing in the past DAX should still complete the 1% rule and rally back to the 11868 level. We talked about a 3 day or 3 week rally, 
last week Socrates said there was likely to be a rally higher the coming two weeks. Socrates has now posted that this week is a big turning point and also a directional change which could mean an explosive move and as final confirmation the GMW says its a possible low close.

On the technical side its also off the 0.618 level from the low on Oct 26 and the high of Nov 2.

So now we just wait and see.

[Thekees]

Nope. I think the low's been seen already for the month, for the Dow at least. December is a turning point for some, but we'll see what he says. I use his general trend thesis stuff, but I don't rely on him.

Made a few trades and lost almost on everything. Shorted the real estate high which made up for all the losers, plus a decent gain. Came close to shorting the CMG high but decided not to open the trade Cut losers, run winners, is how you win the game. Set alerts where the highs/lows should be, then open the trade where the algos trigger stops- that is, where your stop would be is actually the entry because that is cases is where they overextend into a reversal. Although it doesn't have to be. Armstrong's stuff isn't bad I think, but if one doesn't see the trade, there's no need to go after it. Supply and demand trading is where it's at, seriously. The 2016 consolidation highs of MMM can be drawn on the chart straight across. That was the recent volatility's low where I had set an alert. Some stocks will have an incredibly obvious bounce point, and MMM was one of them. During volatility, I try trading those super obvious and untested major spots. If it hasn't been tested, it shouldn't simply break through on its first try, it should have a bounce. Managed to catch the bottom. Sold it too quick, but you get the main point though. If XLU gets to 56.22, that should be a good short area and go down to about 55.3, for example. Google should bounce at slightly over 900. My trading style is different so I only go after the Armstrong ones when I understand the technicals involved on my own charts.

Are you up or down for 2018? (YTD performance)

Breakeven actually still learning a lot of things, but getting better I hope. It's not easy

I am still at a loss as I also made some stupid mistakes and risked to much. I trusted Armstrongs posts to much and then when price went the other way I would just hold on because he said it was likely to reach price X so I held on longer and then when he would finally post something again he would say price rejected some technical level or reversal (that he had not mentioned before) and now its going down and I was stuck with a big loss.

What I have been doing lately is just combining what I know from price action and use the reversals and arrays as confirmation. I also place my stops at swing points and other technical levels

Lesson learned.

[olegrey]

I got answers about his arrays before.  The bars ACTUALLY do mean the price levels, as he emailed me.  And I forgot where he said this, but he said that the price levels are relative only in THAT timeframe that is being plotted.  So you cannot compare the price levels between two different array plots.

See at 2hrs 23mins - https://vimeo.com/198896912  which confirms what you have written above:

"the bars relate to price levels..the array has to match price level activity.."

The highest bars reflect the most amount of cycles hitting at that moment in time.
It's not just the top composite bar that highlights price activity by the highest bars, it's also high bars shown the other levels such as Empirical etc..

Does anyone have the password for this video? I'd like to see it, thanks.