Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[allinvain]

But think about it this way, even if you have say BTC 1000 if the exchange rate went up to 100 you'd have 100,000 BTC!!!

Ah no, you'd still have BTC 1000 but they would be worth USD100,000.

Better make sure you don't get hacked or leave an old copy of your wallet lying around in memory somewhere ....

Ooops..my bad, I just noticed that error. Heheh..it's 6 in the morning here and I was half asleep when I posted that, so perhaps I can get some sympathy .

Yeah definitely. I'm definitely paranoid as it is right now..imagine me at 100 BTC/USD exchange rate. I'd build a Faraday cage around my  house to prevent the evil bitcoin stealing rays from getting through.

I hope in the future the bitcoin client will allow you to specify where the wallet.dat is located so I can load it from a secure jump drive (one of those "secure" ones - you know the ones that self destruct if tampered).

 

[Alex Beckenham]

I hope in the future the bitcoin client will allow you to specify where the wallet.dat is located so I can load it from a secure jump drive (one of those "secure" ones - you know the ones that self destruct if tampered).

The future is here today!

Just use the -datadir switch.

bitcoin -datadir=h:\data

[LMGTFY]

Anyone else wondering when we're gonna break out of this trading range?  To the upside? Downside?  I'd like to see a pullback to at least 2.5 . . .

My guess - and I stress that this is purely a guess, with no analysis put into it at all - is that it'll be to the downside, but not by much.

My thinking is that we'll see something similar to what happened after the last meteoric rise (to $1.10!) back in January - there'll be a slow, gradual decline over several weeks, while we all adjust to the new price and difficulty climate, then price will start to climb again.

The basis for this theory is (a) magic - it's happened once, it's bound to happen again, right? Right?! (b) luck - I'd really like price to keep climbing. I'm holding BTC and no USD right now. Generally when I'm in this position price falls or stagnates for protracted periods... :-)

[allinvain]

I hope in the future the bitcoin client will allow you to specify where the wallet.dat is located so I can load it from a secure jump drive (one of those "secure" ones - you know the ones that self destruct if tampered).

The future is here today!

Just use the -datadir switch.

bitcoin -datadir=h:\data

touche! I shall give that a go. What I had in mind though was a gui option..basically you'd tell it to "load" a specific wallet file manually when you launch the client, and it should also prevent the client from creating a fresh wallet.dat file if a specific flag is set in options.

Thanks!

[allinvain]

Anyone else wondering when we're gonna break out of this trading range?  To the upside? Downside?  I'd like to see a pullback to at least 2.5 . . .

My guess - and I stress that this is purely a guess, with no analysis put into it at all - is that it'll be to the downside, but not by much.

My thinking is that we'll see something similar to what happened after the last meteoric rise (to $1.10!) back in January - there'll be a slow, gradual decline over several weeks, while we all adjust to the new price and difficulty climate, then price will start to climb again.

The basis for this theory is (a) magic - it's happened once, it's bound to happen again, right? Right?! (b) luck - I'd really like price to keep climbing. I'm holding BTC and no USD right now. Generally when I'm in this position price falls or stagnates for protracted periods... :-)

So far it looks like price is stuck in a range. C'mon $4 ...we can do it

[LZ]

...and we can do $2 too.

[FooDSt4mP]

...and we can do $2 too.

But $4 would take less capital .  $48557.71 worth the asks to $4 vs.  $51948.89 worth the bids to $2.5 (mtgox isn't showing show any lower bids).  Of course, who know what the dark pools look like?

[FreeMoney]

Freemoney and bitcool:

Will do 50 btc with each of you.

On silver spot price trading below 30 at least intraday before may 31, 2011.

Consider it booked. I just want to know what source you consider valid for this. I watch Kitco, don't know if that's lame or rigged or whatever. 

Wow, when silver was at 49 I thought I had a lock. Not so sure at all now!

[S3052]

Freemoney and bitcool:

Will do 50 btc with each of you.

On silver spot price trading below 30 at least intraday before may 31, 2011.

Consider it booked. I just want to know what source you consider valid for this. I watch Kitco, don't know if that's lame or rigged or whatever. 

Wow, when silver was at 49 I thought I had a lock. Not so sure at all now!

I am happy to pay you the 50btc each if it does not fall another 4.9$ :-)
I made a very good trade as I shortened massively between 45-49 $ and now it is 34.9$.

[S3052]

http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/2011/05/bitcoin-market-analysis-may-5th-2011-by-s3052/

[bitcool]

Wow, when silver was at 49 I thought I had a lock. Not so sure at all now!

I am happy to pay you the 50btc each if it does not fall another 4.9$ :-)
I made a very good trade as I shortened massively between 45-49 $ and now it is 34.9$.

Silver is a great game, but you need the skill of cowboy Rodeo to play it.

[Current-C]

Silver is a great game, but you need the skill of cowboy Rodeo to play it.

Compared to bitcoins silver is an easy ride. 

I'd love to see silver touch $30 but if it does it won't last long.  My bet is a sideways consolidation from here till late summer then a push to take out 50.  Should be a good time to pick up some miners.

Anyone else think if we break down from here (btc) we could touch parity?   

[bitcool]

Silver is a great game, but you need the skill of cowboy Rodeo to play it.

My bet is a sideways consolidation from here till late summer then a push to take out 50.  Should be a good time to pick up some miners.

Anyone else think if we break down from here (btc) we could touch parity?   

Not sure if we need to wait that long. Fed needs a fairly significant correction in commodity complex before rolling out QE3 or QE2.5.

Once this is done and debt ceiling drama unfolds, silver price will be off to the race again -- assuming they won't botch the scripted show like 2008.

[Alex Beckenham]

Anyone else think if we break down from here (btc) we could touch parity?   

Stop teasing. Parity would be heaven at this point.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Parity ... it's gone baby gone.

.... we are more likely to see 10 before we see 1 again, my latest pick is for the next strong rally phase to take us in to the low 7s area ... unsure what will trigger that rally and how long it maybe away though, weeks or even months probably.

[NOTAL]

Wow, when silver was at 49 I thought I had a lock. Not so sure at all now!

I am happy to pay you the 50btc each if it does not fall another 4.9$ :-)
I made a very good trade as I shortened massively between 45-49 $ and now it is 34.9$.

Silver is a great game, but you need the skill of cowboy Rodeo to play it.

Wow, just looked at silver price today. I just sold most of my silver (which I bought at $10-$15) at $45, I timed that well.

[allinvain]

Wow, when silver was at 49 I thought I had a lock. Not so sure at all now!

I am happy to pay you the 50btc each if it does not fall another 4.9$ :-)
I made a very good trade as I shortened massively between 45-49 $ and now it is 34.9$.

Silver is a great game, but you need the skill of cowboy Rodeo to play it.

Wow, just looked at silver price today. I just sold most of my silver (which I bought at $10-$15) at $45, I timed that well.

Bitcoin is the next gold

[FreeMoney]

Parity ... it's gone baby gone.

.... we are more likely to see 10 before we see 1 again, my latest pick is for the next strong rally phase to take us in to the low 7s area ... unsure what will trigger that rally and how long it maybe away though, weeks or even months probably.

Pfah, any self respecting bitcoin rally is +200% at least.

Parity would be insane, I don't think that happens again unless there is a tech issue or something.

[eof]

if it goes up, i'm happy.

if it goes way down i'm happy (buy buy buy).  stagnating is boring.

I suspect up in four weeks.  Next big press hit; steady supply, increased demand: $10/btc

[pjwaffle]

http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/2011/05/bitcoin-market-analysis-may-5th-2011-by-s3052/

About the whole elliott wave thing... Maybe it would be helpful for the community if you'd do an in depth analysis of the bitcoin using that. Maybe you should put it on the poll?