MrHempstock
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Activity: 140
Merit: 100
"Don't worry. My career died after Batman, too."
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August 04, 2013, 07:21:21 PM |
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Which made me think - is there a way to calculate difficulty based on network hash rate? They are linearly, functionally, related. That is, ignoring the transient network rate effects (which are what induce changes in difficulty in the first place) it is: 7158278 * D = Hash EDIT: This, BTW, is why difficulty in a trending network growth phase is, like any moving average, always the correct level for what was, not what is. Hence, the normalized "3600 coins per day" is actually often substantially higher, and a source of "gaming" in players' network participation. Loredo, can you expand a little more on the second half of the quote here, where I believe you are referring to pool hopping. This might be of interest to those purchasing KnC equipment trying to maximize their ROI. Thanks. +1 |
BTCitcointalk 1%ers manipulate the currency and deceive its user community.
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It is a common myth that Bitcoin is ruled by a majority of miners. This is not true. Bitcoin miners "vote" on the ordering of transactions, but that's all they do. They can't vote to change the network rules.
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Ytterbium
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August 04, 2013, 07:31:29 PM |
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Loredo, can you expand a little more on the second half of the quote here, where I believe you are referring to pool hopping. This might be of interest to those purchasing KnC equipment trying to maximize their ROI. Thanks.
No, he simply means there are more then 3600 coins mined every day so long as the hashrate is growing. It doesn't matter what pool you use. |
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sbfree
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August 04, 2013, 08:53:05 PM |
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Loredo, can you expand a little more on the second half of the quote here, where I believe you are referring to pool hopping. This might be of interest to those purchasing KnC equipment trying to maximize their ROI. Thanks.
No, he simply means there are more then 3600 coins mined every day so long as the hashrate is growing. It doesn't matter what pool you use. No, he simply means there are more then 3600 coins mined every day so long as the hashrate is growing. It doesn't matter what pool you use. [/quote] Ytterbium, I believe there are those that hop pools to maximize their returns....or mine more BTC. I imagine it is a risk to jump from mining pool to mining pool. no risk no reward! Loredo, please expand if this is the case. |
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Loredo
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August 04, 2013, 09:56:21 PM |
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Ytterbium, I believe there are those that hop pools to maximize their returns....or mine more BTC. I imagine it is a risk to jump from mining pool to mining pool. no risk no reward!
Loredo, please expand if this is the case.
With regard to pool hopping, I'll leave that to others who better understand the dynamics (or reference threads on the topic, which undoubtedly exist). But yes, there are advantages to pool hopping, for the same underlying reason there can be more or less than 3600 coins mined per 24 hours: one factor in ex-post revenue is fixed while you, yourself, may have a dynamic decision you can make against that factor. I was referring to the following, in which, again, I'm not anybody's idea of an expert. You can find, in the wiki's or elsewhere on line, the mathematics of the instantaneous probabilities of success in mining on any one hash. That's a function of difficulty, and the actual network hash rate at that time. A business reckons gross revenue per time interval. Quite uniquely in bitcoin, gross revenue across a time interval is a tractable stochastic function of the above probability; the linkage between that probability and revenue over a time interval is the outcome (actually, I believe, a stochastic integral of outcomes) of the binomial distribution of the number of successes, conditional on the input factors. Even that, however, is a one-stage calculation. If someone (think ASICminer) has the ability to increase their - and thus, the network's - hash rate in a meaningful way, they can affect an increase in their current revenue flow. But they also -for the next stage- affect the subsequent difficulty, which, all equal, might reduce their future revenue flow. Thus, entities who have significant hash power, and the ability to throttle that up and back, can view this as a multi-stage optimization problem. But it's not only stochastic; it's also game-theoretic if they are not the only actor in that play. That's what I meant when I used the term "gaming." Again, I'm not an expert on stochastic optimization, but the above is my somewhat naive understanding of the issue. |
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Ytterbium
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August 04, 2013, 10:28:07 PM |
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Ytterbium, I believe there are those that hop pools to maximize their returns....or mine more BTC. I imagine it is a risk to jump from mining pool to mining pool. no risk no reward!
Loredo, please expand if this is the case.
If a pool is paying out based on the number of shares/block reward for each block then you can pool hop when a pool is taking a long time to find a block. There's no risk, however most pools no longer operate that way so it's not effective. |
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jspielberg
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August 04, 2013, 10:28:10 PM |
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I guess I can plug my simple exponential best fit curve which has been tracking pretty darned closely. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=236050.0Unfortunately I believe its days are numbered... the new projects coming on line are going to accelerate the hashpower being brought onto the network. That being said it is forecasting 1PH global network speed in early November. |
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erk
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August 04, 2013, 10:35:19 PM |
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I guess I can plug my simple exponential best fit curve which has been tracking pretty darned closely. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=236050.0Unfortunately I believe its days are numbered... the new projects coming on line are going to accelerate the hashpower being brought onto the network. That being said it is forecasting 1PH global network speed in early November. 1PH/s won't be a problem, it will result in a massive price drop in ASIC prices for manufacturers to remain in the game, currently the margins are huge after the first wafer run is paid off. Hopefully it will teach people not to pre-order and pay a premium for negative ROI products, though I doubt it as most crypto miners seem rather clueless about ROI. |
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jspielberg
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August 04, 2013, 10:57:01 PM |
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I guess I can plug my simple exponential best fit curve which has been tracking pretty darned closely. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=236050.0Unfortunately I believe its days are numbered... the new projects coming on line are going to accelerate the hashpower being brought onto the network. That being said it is forecasting 1PH global network speed in early November. 1PH/s won't be a problem, it will result in a massive price drop in ASIC prices for manufacturers to remain in the game, currently the margins are huge after the first wafer run is paid off. Hopefully it will teach people not to pre-order and pay a premium for negative ROI products, though I doubt it as most crypto miners seem rather clueless about ROI. Hopefully spreadsheets with expected delivery dates (and then add at least "Two Weeks" TM) will help people plan as to what is the maximum reasonable price. |
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KS
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August 04, 2013, 11:05:23 PM |
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I find your statement confusing/confused. If you are sending EUR from a EU bank (not the UK one, that other EU bank you mentioned) using IBAN+BIC to Bitstamp's EU account, it is a SEPA transfer and falls under the SEPA regulations (no fee, 1-3 days ETA). Bitstamp will do the EUR/USD conversion at a decent rate. I have never paid a fee for it and it gets there within 3 days.
You are confused, because you believe that all SEPA transfers should be free, which is not the case. For example UK banks will charge you  And the banks in this member state I'm talking about will also charge you  It's basically the right of each bank to set the fees - maybe because the official currency is not euro? What about: http://www.citibank.co.uk/personal/banking/international/sepa.htm (read: no fee) [a quick Google search, not like I'm endorsing Citi] |
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CYPER
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August 04, 2013, 11:49:39 PM |
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You will need to be present at a fixed address in that country to answer an automated phone call with a pin.
They will also deposit two minor payments in your account in the currency of the country the account is being set up in and will require you put those to amounts in as another pin code.
They can also ask occasionally for a scan of passport/drivers licence etc. the biggest ballache is waiting for the two small amounts to show on your bank statement. Faster if it's internet banking...
Edit: actually this applies to UK, so you probably know this, unsure if same verification steps apply elsewhere. I know Spain has very strict privacy laws typically a scan of National ID and utility bill from a fixed address that has to be verified by a member of personnel.
Scan of an ID card won't be a problem, but a utility bill might be as I don't live there. Might as well just do the bank transfer when I decide to as it looks like PayPal will be too much hassle. I had to verify my account for Paypal to let me use a CC to pay for a Jupiter. Wasn't a huge deal. Dunno if that applies in other countries besides US tho.
It probably does. I have a verified account in the UK, been using it for years. I don't think it's possible, no.
The problem with the exponential increases in the calculators' models is that while the diff has been rising exponentially it's doing so with mere linear inputs of money into mining equipment. And that exponential performance gains have come from bringing to bear modern computing technology on the problem, ie: ASICs.
Eventually we hit a wall where we've wrung the most efficiency out of existing tech and at that point, everyone's who already hit positive ROI on their equipment will be cemented in place with their existing market-share, because it won't make financial sense for others to jump into the game unless they can produce a far more efficient miner technically--and they won't be able to. We're looking at 1 or two more generations of mining products (barring some major tech advancement in the chip industry like carbon nanotube chips or something), and if the price of bitcoin doesn't rise dramatically again in the next years then that's the state of things, people mining late this year will probably still be mining late next year.
The bitcoin community doesn't have exponential money to put into miners. So those calculators are off with their projections by early next year, around June I'd say is where we hit the wall and there won't be anywhere else to go. That will be the new normal, probably around 500 - 750 million difficulty as an offhand guess.
Thank you for your valuable input I'll post my own speculations a little later when I run some numbers Good find The financial landscape might have changed since I last checked, but I still believe most UK high street banks such as HSBC, Barclays, Nationwide, etc are still charging for SEPA payments. Some time ago they were even clueless as to what SEPA is. That is probably because euro is not the official currency in use and the same applies to the country where the finances for the ASIC purchase are. But as I mentioned earlier it is pointless to transfer the money to the UK - that will incur more charges. The best and cheapest way is direct SWIFT transfer in USD. |
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pyra-proxy
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August 05, 2013, 12:51:46 AM |
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As for the pool I mentioned starting it is open so if anyone wants to test it out with asic's and help me squash as many issues as possible before KNC starts shipping I'd appreciate it! For the time being it is at 0% fee while the pool is in testing phases (and I hope to keep it that way when the pool formally releases, but I have to ensure the pool will be self-sufficient when I need to move it to a more capable host for running a large p2pool node). Things to look forward to in the future will be more advanced web front end(s), possibly custom tweaked p2pool code to facilitate asic mining better and possibly multiple load balanced servers should the need arise, and of course I'm always open to suggestions!) In addition to 0 fee's, transaction fees are paid out as well and I have attempted to modify my bitcoind mining node so that transaction fees are maximized to improve ROI and compensate for the minor shortages that p2pool has over standard pools. Here's the link: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=268154.0 |
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Bitcoinorama
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August 05, 2013, 01:01:15 AM |
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As for the pool I mentioned starting it is open so if anyone wants to test it out with asic's and help me squash as many issues as possible before KNC starts shipping I'd appreciate it! For the time being it is at 0% fee while the pool is in testing phases (and I hope to keep it that way when the pool formally releases, but I have to ensure the pool will be self-sufficient when I need to move it to a more capable host for running a large p2pool node). Things to look forward to in the future will be more advanced web front end(s), possibly custom tweaked p2pool code to facilitate asic mining better and possibly multiple load balanced servers should the need arise, and of course I'm always open to suggestions!) In addition to 0 fee's, transaction fees are paid out as well and I have attempted to modify my bitcoind mining node so that transaction fees are maximized to improve ROI and compensate for the minor shortages that p2pool has over standard pools. Here's the link: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=268154.0Sweet! |
Make my day! Say thanks if you found me helpful BTC Address ---> 1487ThaKjezGA6SiE8fvGcxbgJJu6XWtZp |
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sbfree
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August 05, 2013, 04:31:20 AM |
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Ytterbium
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August 05, 2013, 04:33:28 AM |
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Anything in that article not in the WSJ one? |
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sbfree
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August 05, 2013, 04:41:22 AM |
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Didn't read the WSJ, but this article said they passed up BFL and KNC. They didn't say why.
But from that pic that was posted with SAM (KNC), Josh (BFL) and todays hero/villain (YIFU), YIFU Looks so dam smug, but i mean smug....like he knows he a bad mofo....bout to collect some of the 200 million headed his way. WOW.
I wonder if Josh and Sam knew of this deal during that pic (i doubt it)?
Notice Yifu isn't smiling.....
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Ytterbium
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August 05, 2013, 07:15:45 AM |
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Didn't read the WSJ, but this article said they passed up BFL and KNC. They didn't say why.
But from that pic that was posted with SAM (KNC), Josh (BFL) and todays hero/villain (YIFU), YIFU Looks so dam smug, but i mean smug....like he knows he a bad mofo....bout to collect some of the 200 million headed his way. WOW.
I wonder if Josh and Sam knew of this deal during that pic (i doubt it)?
Notice Yifu isn't smiling.....
Funny thing is they may all have thought they were on track to get the deal. Likely there are several other big investors interested in making investments in bitcoin mining companies. KnC, along with HashFast and Cointerra are likely to get in on the action. |
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Anenome5
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August 05, 2013, 07:19:57 AM |
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Didn't read the WSJ, but this article said they passed up BFL and KNC. They didn't say why.
But from that pic that was posted with SAM (KNC), Josh (BFL) and todays hero/villain (YIFU), YIFU Looks so dam smug, but i mean smug....like he knows he a bad mofo....bout to collect some of the 200 million headed his way. WOW.
I wonder if Josh and Sam knew of this deal during that pic (i doubt it)?
Notice Yifu isn't smiling.....
Need to see corroboration, that 'deal' simply doesn't make sense. Someone on Reddit said it was an idiot reporter doing a search on 'avalon' and got a hit for $200m for a company with the same name not even connected to bitcoin. It wouldn't make -any- sense to put $200m into bitcoin mining, that's 1/5th the total value of all bitcoin. If you mined all the bitcoin in a year that's $131m. I could see $20m. But $200? And why 20nm? 14 is the next process step, isn't it? What are they gonna do, strike a deal with IBM's fabs? Doubtful. And why announce it at all if true? If you don't need pre-order money your best business move is to take the entire network by absolute surprise by putting say 10000 terahash or w/e of power on the network some random day and freak everyone out and ruin their profitability. Anyway the article is paywalled for me. I'm laying this strictly in the rumor camp for now. |
Democracy is the original 51% attack.
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