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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25495886 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (158 posts by 14 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin


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August 31, 2020, 10:00:45 PM
Last edit: September 01, 2020, 12:09:53 AM by JayJuanGee



Two opposing forces:
  • Downward pressure: bigger market caps drags price action, as more money inflow is required to move the price
  • Upward pressure: every day the S2F holds, it gets stronger and stronger, so future appreciation gets discounted into price, providing a lift to prices.

It’s a battle.


I didn't look at this as simple as that, but you quite nailed it, imho.
You can see the increasing linear spread of market cap and price figures, for example on coinmarketcap graphs.
The more BTC get's recognized as what it is, the more inflow acceleration will occur as a logical result.
But i'm uncertain how increasing inflation will influence the latter. In critical times, people tend to fall back to traditional solutions, namely gold.

EDIT:
@JJG: Don't call me bearish just because of that statement about gold  Grin
Bitcoin should take over, imo. Only a matter when people will grasp this.

I might call you delusional, rather than bearish.

Sure there is a lot of sentiment out there regarding gold serving as a sufficient and adequate hedge against ongoing fiscal irresponsibility.. but you really believe that gold is providing anything that bitcoin is NOT going to be providing in the coming years?

Not only is bitcoin better than gold in terms of portability, divisibility, verifiability and a few other important characteristics, bitcoin also has the exponential s-curve adoption aspect, which surely is an unfair advantage for bitcoin to be going through early stages of adoption while gold hardly has anywhere to go in terms of actual adoption, but why would the market give any shits about the fairness of this particular situation... eg the lopsided circumstances favoring bitcoin?

So sure, maybe you won't lose your wealth as fast in gold as you might lose it in various kinds of fiat-based investments, but I still am NOT sure where you are speculating that you might be able to get something from gold that you cannot get from bitcoin... Seems to me that you are likely speculating about gold's value proposition based on longer history and the already existence of financial instruments that are going to easily allow traditional financial institutions to quickly get into gold, but really?  you believe gold is going to perform as well as bitcoin in the coming years?

What's coming first?  A $10k gold or a $60k bitcoin?  Both are around 5x price appreciation points from today's price.  Which one is getting there first?  You betting evenly on this? You have 50% in each?

How about after gold reaches $10k (hypothetically)?  You gonna get another 4x out of gold, to $40k?  you going to bet on that happening?

How about bitcoin?  Do you consider that bitcoin could arrive at $240k (that is 4x after reaching $60k) a bit more easily after it had already 5x'd as compared with gold arriving at $60k after it had already gotten to $10k?

I could keep going on with higher and higher numbers, and the upside still seems way more favorable for bitcoin as compared to grandpa coin (aka gold) reaching those higher numbers.

Make your bets however you choose, OOM, but I am having troubles appreciating how you might be so willing to suggest that gold is reasonable, feasible and necessary in light of where king daddy happens to be and where king daddy seems likely to be going in the coming years.

Edit:  Clarified a few points and fixed a few typos.
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ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin


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August 31, 2020, 10:09:17 PM
Merited by sirazimuth (1)

Oh don't be mean bud.
Lately it would seem the cat's got his tongue...

Jojo sent me a private message, and based on that, I am pretty sure that it was a duck that had his tongue. 



He seems to be attempting a recovery.
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August 31, 2020, 11:04:35 PM

Hopium.

My body is ready:

Quote

#Bitcoin  after the Halving
Aug. 31, 2020

111 days after the 3rd halving.
#BTC  at $11,732.

Looking solid 👇


https://twitter.com/ecoinometrics/status/1300448468377378816?s=21


Confidence bands based on past halvings.
I am happy with this slight underperformance, diminishing returns, I am ok with that.

It's unlikely we will see growth the same as the past halvings. I think ~3-5x the prior ATH (so 60-100k) is a reasonable peak this time around. 



Resistance futile
Supply is diminishing
FOMO then we moon


When the supply of resistance coins gets gobbled, the price just goes bananas.  There is no reasonable number.  FOMO is not reasonable. My expectations: 50k will be akin to 2017's ~4k.  Woohoo, sideways/down, then off again to moon.   :rollercoaster.gif
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August 31, 2020, 11:48:19 PM



Two opposing forces:
  • Downward pressure: bigger market caps drags price action, as more money inflow is required to move the price
  • Upward pressure: every day the S2F holds, it gets stronger and stronger, so future appreciation gets discounted into price, providing a lift to prices.

It’s a battle.


I didn't look at this as simple as that, but you quite nailed it, imho.
You can see the increasing linear spread of market cap and price figures, for example on coinmarketcap graphs.
The more BTC get's recognized as what it is, the more inflow acceleration will occur as a logical result.
But i'm uncertain how increasing inflation will influence the latter. In critical times, people tend to fall back to traditional solutions, namely gold.

EDIT:
@JJG: Don't call me bearish just because of that statement about gold  Grin
Bitcoin should take over, imo. Only a matter when people will grasp this.

I might call you delusional, rather than bearish.

Sure there is a lot of sentiment out there regarding gold serving as a sufficient and adequate hedge against ongoing fiscal irresponsibility.. but you really believe that gold is providing anything that bitcoin is NOT going to be providing in the coming years.

Not only is bitcoin better than gold in terms of portability, divisibility, verifiability and a few other important characteristics, bitcoin also has the exponential s-curve adoption aspect, which surely is an unfair advantage for bitcoin, buy why would the market give any shits about fairness.

So, sure, maybe you won't loose your wealth as fast in gold as you might lose it in various kinds of fiat-based investments, but I still am NOT sure where you are speculating that you might be able to get something from gold that you cannot get from bitcoin... and sure you are likely going based on longer history and the already existence of financial instruments that are going to easily allow traditional financial institutions to quickly get into gold, but really?  you believe gold is going to perform as well as bitcoin in the coming years?

What's coming first?  A $10k gold or a $60k bitcoin?  Both are around 5x price appreciation.  Which one is getting there first?  You betting evenly on this?

How about after gold reaches $10k (hypothetically)?  You gonna get another 4x out of gold, to $40k?  you going to bet on that?

How about bitcoin?  Do you consider that bitcoin could arrive at $240k (that is 4x after reaching $60k) a bit more easily than gold?

I could keep going on with higher and higher numbers, and the upside still seems way more favorable for bitcoin as compared to grandpa coin (aka gold).

Make your bets however you choose, but I am having troubles appreciating how you might be so willing to suggest that gold is reasonable, feasible and necessary in light of where king daddy happens to be and where king daddy seems likely to go in the coming years.

I mean:
Bitcoin would deserve a good amount of inflow of gold instead, but most of the grannies still love their "granny-coin".
It's them* who are delusional, not me.
I don't trade with, nor do i hold any PMs.

*not the grannies, but the gold holders.

EDIT:
#hodlsleep in 3... 2... 1...
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September 01, 2020, 01:20:53 AM

I don't trade with, nor do i hold any PMs.

*not the grannies, but the gold holders.

EDIT:
#hodlsleep in 3... 2... 1...

When bitcoin goes past $100k, it wouldn't be a bad idea to get a little bit of some gold bars huh... Silver might be too much.
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September 01, 2020, 01:27:59 AM

I don't trade with, nor do i hold any PMs.

*not the grannies, but the gold holders.

EDIT:
#hodlsleep in 3... 2... 1...

When bitcoin goes past $100k, it wouldn't be a bad idea to get a little bit of some gold bars huh... Silver might be too much.
Bitcoin will never see over 12k ever again as it slides into irrelevance
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September 01, 2020, 03:18:56 AM

 Roll Eyes

emptied bags too soon?  probably should forget this account as well



---------


JayJuanGee
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ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin


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September 01, 2020, 03:39:27 AM
Merited by bitebits (1)

Regarding creating wealth, patience, financial independence, compound interest, leverage, etc etc. If you have 3.5 hours to spare (which I have because painting the house) would definitely recommend listing to the podcast by @Naval:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=1-TZqOsVCNM

(quite sure this is something you enjoy listening to JJG)
.......

Since I was able to find that same Naval podcast (and of course that particular episode) on Overcast, then I will be able to more easily add it to my cue and listen to it today or soon.tm..  

I will report back to you (on the thread) what I think of the episode and gosh/shit I will report whether I am intending to add that podcast to my list of regular listens (like I mentioned, I am starting to tentatively speculate that I may have too many podcasts on my cue.. but sure, i will try to keep listening and prioritizing.. to the extent feasible).  

I will follow-up and say that I did listen to the 3.5 hour Naval podcast linked above.  I do agree that the podcast is good, educational, motivational, and it is directed at thinking through a variety of getting rich concepts, especially in modern times with modern dynamics.

 I may listen to more of them in the future, but I will say that I never really had similar kinds of thinking as Naval or even any kind of direct desire to get rich - so I might not be very fitting in terms of his audience... 

So probably for now I can reserve some judgement, and perhaps listen to some more of the podcasts later down the road.. .  I do not feel as if I am at a business or even wealth building stage in my life, so there is that angle of potentially differing interests, too.
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September 01, 2020, 04:59:31 AM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)

^ Thanks for reporting back, that was quicker than expected Smiley. I should try increasing the play speed as well, even though with podcasts like these I need some time to think as well what is actually being said.

It sure is different when at an older age already and not fully in the accumulation phase anymore. But perhaps when looking back you made a lot of (unconscious) choices that put you in the position you currently are? I did not have this laser focus either building some kind of product or brand to get me financially independent. But just being honest and reliable, living below your means, freelancing instead of wage slavery, buying equity, etc, apparently goes a long way. Using ‘leverage’ in many different forms is of course where the real profits are (unfortunately I can’t code, but still want to learn some Python one day to automate certain repetitive tasks).

Was not aware the Naval guy had more podcasts, his tweets are the short versions I guess. Will have a look at overcast.fm, bit afraid I soon need more houses to paint!
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September 01, 2020, 05:18:07 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), 600watt (1)

https://twitter.com/pwuille/status/1300572711312265218

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After many iterations (including the recent even-R change), it looks like the PR for BIP340 (Schnorr signature) in libsecp256k1 is getting close to being mergeable:  github.com/bitcoin-core/s...

If anyone feels like reviewing/ACKing, feel free!
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Welcome to Costco. I love you.


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September 01, 2020, 05:51:23 AM

Number going up. Shorts soiling themselves.
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September 01, 2020, 06:08:41 AM

Observing small-ish PUMP
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All good things to those who wait


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September 01, 2020, 06:17:56 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), 600watt (1)

US(hit)D crashing everywhere  Grin Poor mindrust, not only sold at 4K but decided to go from Eur into US(hit)D, which crashed against Eur 15% since then.

In my view the main reason is that Defi scam (as many call it DAO 2). It locked nearly 40K bitcoins on eth blockchain, which is crowded nowadays with huge fees. Thanks to it, with my home farm I am able to buy Bitcoins at half of the current price in the last month (i.e. more than 2x of what I used to buy with my salary). I used the rigs only for heating purposes in the last 2 years so I didn't sell them as most miners did. Thanks God I didn't! Hopefully, this will continue in the next  months. And in 2 weeks I will be able to buy more Bitcoins with another saved $1000. Getting much closer to my stash target  Grin

Of course, there are more factors: weak hands were rekkt, institutions are buying like crazy e.g. bakkt set a new daily record of 12K bitcoins the other day, etc. My expectations are that we will charge an attack of the ATH in the coming months, may be weeks. I agree with LFC about the $150K, but I expect it one year later - in 2022. Of course, anything can happen in Bitcoinlandia.  Wink
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September 01, 2020, 06:29:34 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I don't trade with, nor do i hold any PMs.

*not the grannies, but the gold holders.

EDIT:
#hodlsleep in 3... 2... 1...

When bitcoin goes past $100k, it wouldn't be a bad idea to get a little bit of some gold bars huh... Silver might be too much.
Bitcoin will never see over 12k ever again as it slides into irrelevance

Aaaaah ok one of the previous WO-trolls can't use his previous account anymore, we would laugh to hard as the previous account probably said never over 10K again, 9K, 8K,7K, .......

get a grip

have fun with a bit of trolling we aren't bothered.... only we have to scroll a bit more...

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September 01, 2020, 06:32:59 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), 600watt (1)

4 best months so far:

12/2017   average price=$14835
 1/2018   average price=$12891
 7/2019   average price=$10665
 8/2019   average price=$10612


5 best months so far:

12/2017    average price=$14835
 1/2018    average price=$12891
 8/2020    average price=$11634 <- NEW
 7/2019    average price=$10665
 8/2019    average price=$10612

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September 01, 2020, 06:42:21 AM

August 2020:  2nd highest monthly close ever (bitstamp)

observing 11859.

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September 01, 2020, 06:42:45 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), 600watt (1), Last of the V8s (1)

If you know anything about Bitcoin, you’re about to be bombarded with questions from friends and family in the coming months.  As a result, I have written a 1 pager that should assist in those engagements. If you don’t like mine, make your own, and share.



https://twitter.com/PrestonPysh/status/1300462461888401409?s=20
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September 01, 2020, 06:43:21 AM

August 2020:  2nd highest monthly close ever (bitstamp)

observing 11859.


You observing good my friend Cheesy
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September 01, 2020, 06:54:13 AM

August 2020:  2nd highest monthly close ever (bitstamp)

observing 11859.


You observing good my friend Cheesy


also observing a 100btc buy wall on stamp. good morning mic.  Smiley
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September 01, 2020, 06:57:21 AM

I don't trade with, nor do i hold any PMs.

*not the grannies, but the gold holders.

EDIT:
#hodlsleep in 3... 2... 1...

When bitcoin goes past $100k, it wouldn't be a bad idea to get a little bit of some gold bars huh... Silver might be too much.
Bitcoin will never see over 12k ever again as it slides into irrelevance

Aaaaah ok one of the previous WO-trolls can't use his previous account anymore, we would laugh to hard as the previous account probably said never over 10K again, 9K, 8K,7K, .......

get a grip

have fun with a bit of trolling we aren't bothered.... only we have to scroll a bit more...

Dude, you got to appreciate the max effect of a major joke. Roll Eyes
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