Bitcoin Forum
December 05, 2021, 04:57:06 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 22.0 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Poll
Question: Will we close Nov. at or above Plan B's posited minimum of $98K?
Yes - 43 (37.1%)
No - 73 (62.9%)
Total Voters: 116

Pages: « 1 ... 27123 27124 27125 27126 27127 27128 27129 27130 27131 27132 27133 27134 27135 27136 27137 27138 27139 27140 27141 27142 27143 27144 27145 27146 27147 27148 27149 27150 27151 27152 27153 27154 27155 27156 27157 27158 27159 27160 27161 27162 27163 27164 27165 27166 27167 27168 27169 27170 27171 27172 [27173] 27174 27175 27176 27177 27178 27179 27180 27181 27182 27183 27184 27185 27186 27187 27188 27189 27190 27191 27192 27193 27194 27195 27196 27197 27198 27199 27200 27201 27202 27203 27204 27205 27206 27207 27208 27209 27210 27211 27212 27213 27214 27215 27216 27217 27218 27219 27220 27221 27222 27223 ... 29948 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25495853 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (158 posts by 14 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Philipma1957cellphone
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 418
Merit: 125


View Profile
August 31, 2020, 06:03:40 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

~ Am I missing something?

Not much really, just the fud that attacks mining all the time, whether China fud or USA, which stalls the ever-up hashrate sometimes.

CCP really wants bitcoin out of China (lol) and USA has mixed success getting it in.

Let's say that 2/3 of BTC mining got knocked out for a variety of reasons in the coming months, then of course, there would be drama and FUD spreading, but at the same time BTC difficulty level is going to adapt every two weeks as the hashpower changes, in order to adjust to whatever might be going on, and king daddy could give less than two shits about from where (or what jurisdiction) such hashpower comes, and king daddy gives less than two shits if 95% of the hashpower leaves.  Of course, if there is lower hashpower happens, then there could be means to attack it while using less amount of resources, too. 

maybe depends on where that hash that disappears from. what if its from mostly one or two of the top pools. if one of the remaining pools suddenly has over 51% of that remaining hashpower there could be some fear of that pool taking advantage of it for nefarious purposes. that type of drama did happen years back and although it was settled pretty fast (the pool that had near/over 51% prevented new miners from joining iirc) if it happens again maybe the price would be affected.

i dont really keep track of the btc pool hash distribution as i just mine shitcoins on auto exchange pools for btc. someone here will likely have some insight on that (philip maybe?).

Pools are not the issue.

Clarity and pool ownership is more important. They are not regulated no one knows the relationship  of the top ten pools.

As for just sha 256 coins viabtc alone can 51% all the lesser  256 coins anytime they want to do it.  In fact shared algorithms for any coin invite a 51% attack. I could for days about the downsides of only ten pools holding 90% of the sha 256 .  I FEAR the hashrate being squeezed more then I do the top ten pools combined to attack a coin.
1638723426
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1638723426

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1638723426
Reply with quote  #2

1638723426
Report to moderator
1638723426
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1638723426

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1638723426
Reply with quote  #2

1638723426
Report to moderator
1638723426
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1638723426

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1638723426
Reply with quote  #2

1638723426
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1638723426
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1638723426

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1638723426
Reply with quote  #2

1638723426
Report to moderator
1638723426
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1638723426

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1638723426
Reply with quote  #2

1638723426
Report to moderator
1638723426
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1638723426

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1638723426
Reply with quote  #2

1638723426
Report to moderator
jojo69
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 2296
Merit: 3015


1/21000000 , the only math you need to know


View Profile
August 31, 2020, 06:32:48 PM
Merited by explorer (1), Toxic2040 (1)

Indymoney
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 882
Merit: 236


View Profile
August 31, 2020, 06:41:06 PM

Toxic2040
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1204
Merit: 2386



View Profile
August 31, 2020, 07:19:28 PM


Just because we are talking about walls and BTC price movement in the short term, does not really mean that we give too many shits about short term BTC price movements - or that we are not keeping long term likely UPpity in mind.

There is no need to get all UPpity JuanSnowGee. The UPpity will come at its proper time and place.

You are participating in those same conversations and talking about what you believe about UP or DOWN in the short term, so shouldn't we lump you in the same category regarding what your concerns are because you are regularly posting about such?

No.

There should be no lumping what so ever...especially if I am the lumpee. I will however concede that I much prefer to be the lumper rather than the lumpee if we are going to have lumpage of the unwashed masses.


Of course, similar with traders, there are going to be all kinds of variation within any identified group, so yeah you are entitled to having your doom and gloom theory about miners potentially being over extended, even though I do not really buy that theory, personally.

I am unsure if my statements...or theory as would have you, qualifies as something that falls into a doom and gloom scenario.


I believe that miners have overall been profitable, and sure they can hold back some coins in order to speculate on the BTC price going up, and likely they have always engaged in some conduct, but the longer and longer that bitcoin is in business the more and more the dumber miners have been getting screened out, and the more and more that miners have figured out ways to meaningfully balance their approach to cash out from time to time and also to hold back enough coins to speculate.

I believe this as well. If said miners tend to follow sound business practices and withhodl 3 to 6 months of operating capital for just in case, such capitulation theories become moot.

I doubt that the bitcoin space is getting less and less stable with the passage of time, even though BIGGER and BIGGER players continue to come into the space and attempt to throw larger and larger capital at the situation to attempt to get their way, but in the end, we are seeing longer term (you like long term, right? chart patterns that are seeming to show 4 year fractal and even the stock to flow model to be almost too eerily close to being 100% spot on...

Yes.

Yeah, I am not going to proclaim that the BTC price is guaranteed to continue to follow those 4-year fractal and stock to flow model patterns, but they continue to serve as some of the best predictors in spite a lot of the maneuvering and dickering around that either BIG money does or even crazy ass shit in the macro financial space.

This seems wise and I reluctantly agree.

So for example, let's say we get a hundred thousand BTC dumped over a variety of exchanges and BTC prices drop down to $6,500 again, how long is that drop going to last?  I will believe it when I see it.  I am not suggesting that it is NOT impossible, but largely we are seeming way more inclined for UPpity than DOWNity, currently, even if we experience a few more dumpenings of coins to attempt to shake out some more weak hands, but if even the weakhands are not being shook, then I suppose that they are NOT fitting in the definition of weak hands.

Personally, I would not mind witnessing of shaking some of the ethereum and some of that defi bullshit smoke and mirror froth.. those areas seem way more vulnerable than speculative seemingly lame-ass theories of purported BTC miner capitulation.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Stronghands are not shook...ever. I thought you knew this JuanSnowGee.


----

TypeError: must be toxic2040, not wordybot


Please stand by as we run heuristics and reboot toxic2040.exe


That is all.
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 2828
Merit: 5174


ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin


View Profile
August 31, 2020, 07:20:30 PM
Last edit: August 31, 2020, 07:42:48 PM by JayJuanGee

Regarding creating wealth, patience, financial independence, compound interest, leverage, etc etc. If you have 3.5 hours to spare (which I have because painting the house) would definitely recommend listing to the podcast by @Naval:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=1-TZqOsVCNM

(quite sure this is something you enjoy listening to JJG)

Thanks bitebits ... and of course, i am not the only one who posts on the financial management strategies topic.  Wink

Personally, I was not familiar with that particular guy or his podcast, and it seems as if currently, I have a bit of a podcast overload in my own life... there are more and more good podcasts, related to bitcoin.. and sure other topics, too....

Since I was able to find that same Naval podcast (and of course that particular episode) on Overcast, then I will be able to more easily add it to my cue and listen to it today or soon.tm..  

I will report back to you (on the thread) what I think of the episode and gosh/shit I will report whether I am intending to add that podcast to my list of regular listens (like I mentioned, I am starting to tentatively speculate that I may have too many podcasts on my cue.. but sure, i will try to keep listening and prioritizing.. to the extent feasible).  

On average, I also tend to listen to podcasts at 1.75x (which also can be done on Youtube, but I still prefer overcast, for some reason), and sometimes I can speed some of the episodes up even more than 1.75x, but if they are dense with information, or I am feeling that I  am having troubles following or comprehending some of the contents, then sometimes I have to even slow down the speed to a mere 1x.. or slightly above 1x -- like 1.25x or something like that.

...
If you have 3.5 hours to spare (which I have because painting the house) ...

Do you have 3.5 hours to spare becaise you are putting off painting the house, or because you are waiting for a coat of paint to dry?

I speculate that bitebits is technically watching such paint dry rather than mere waiting for it to dry.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy



Go figure what wall observers will do to show their dedication to the cause.   Wink
fillippone
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1274
Merit: 7354


Merit Rascal wannabe Merit Cycler


View Profile
August 31, 2020, 07:25:19 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2), 600watt (1)

Hopium.

My body is ready:

Quote

#Bitcoin  after the Halving
Aug. 31, 2020

111 days after the 3rd halving.
#BTC  at $11,732.

Looking solid 👇


https://twitter.com/ecoinometrics/status/1300448468377378816?s=21


Confidence bands based on past halvings.
I am happy with this slight underperformance, diminishing returns, I am ok with that.
Toxic2040
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1204
Merit: 2386



View Profile
August 31, 2020, 07:28:51 PM

a now late wall report..minus the report

Just some charting against a backdrop that essentially looks fine imo. Not sure what is causing folks to feel bearish other than perhaps wanting cheap coins.
Bitcoin is trading over $11.7k..this seems fine.

#dyor
1h


4h

#stronghands
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 2828
Merit: 5174


ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin


View Profile
August 31, 2020, 07:34:32 PM

There has been systematic fucking around with regular people (who have turned into rioters) and even giving so many of the spoils to the rich, and lack of attention to the infrastructure of normies, so normies start to feel that they have nothing to lose - they turn into rioters.

normies are just like us
I don't care how frustrated they are, I have something they apparently lack... morality, ethics, compassion, and law-abiding.

Seems like you are merely engaging in generalizations, to me.

Individuals have all kinds of motivations, and lumping them all into some kind of amorphous group, as if they are the enemy, seems a bit lacking in understanding of what is actually going on... but hey, we are each entitled to our own opinions.

Anarchistic rioters and looters are not "peaceful protesters with a cause", they are criminals. So stop justifying their actions.

Aren't you hootie and falootie knowing about all things, including what is permissible and legal.... a self-assigned protest expert... yeah right. Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

By the way, there is no such thing as antifa, too.. it is a made up acronym that tries to suggest that rioters are some kind of organized entity, when they are just a bunch of frustrated and unorganized normies.. who don't have property or seem to have opportunities

Ok whatever you say Jay...  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes



My statements likely make more sense than your overgeneralizations, even though I will admit that I was merely responding to you and not really attempting to descriptively capture the whole space, as you seemed to have been attempting to do.
OutOfMemory
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 672
Merit: 1141


*Toxic Bitcoin Maximalist*


View Profile
August 31, 2020, 07:47:30 PM

Voted $12.0k - $12.5k.
Quite some resistance to take out until even touching $12k, though.
TheJuice
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 791
Merit: 546


View Profile
August 31, 2020, 07:49:19 PM

Hopium.

My body is ready:

Quote

#Bitcoin  after the Halving
Aug. 31, 2020

111 days after the 3rd halving.
#BTC  at $11,732.

Looking solid 👇


https://twitter.com/ecoinometrics/status/1300448468377378816?s=21


Confidence bands based on past halvings.
I am happy with this slight underperformance, diminishing returns, I am ok with that.

It's unlikely we will see growth the same as the past halvings. I think ~3-5x the prior ATH (so 60-100k) is a reasonable peak this time around. 

JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 2828
Merit: 5174


ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin


View Profile
August 31, 2020, 08:04:07 PM

Just because we are talking about walls and BTC price movement in the short term, does not really mean that we give too many shits about short term BTC price movements - or that we are not keeping long term likely UPpity in mind.

There is no need to get all UPpity JuanSnowGee. The UPpity will come at its proper time and place.

Surely, I am not rushing it.  I am willing to go with the flow.  You are the one who seems to be anticipating possible calamaties based on various unknowns that you seem to want to assign unduly high (relatively speaking) levels of probabilities

You are participating in those same conversations and talking about what you believe about UP or DOWN in the short term, so shouldn't we lump you in the same category regarding what your concerns are because you are regularly posting about such?

No.

There should be no lumping what so ever...especially if I am the lumpee.

Good job.   One of the most potent techniques of effective argumentation is to deny first and ask questions later.

I will however concede that I much prefer to be the lumper rather than the lumpee if we are going to have lumpage of the unwashed masses.

Well that's what you seemed to have been doing.

You lumped everyone else, and proclaimed that you were not part of such group.    Tongue Tongue Tongue   Another "great" technique.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Of course, similar with traders, there are going to be all kinds of variation within any identified group, so yeah you are entitled to having your doom and gloom theory about miners potentially being over extended, even though I do not really buy that theory, personally.

I am unsure if my statements...or theory as would have you, qualifies as something that falls into a doom and gloom scenario.

O.k.  we won't call it doom and gloom anymore, we will call it self-destructive urge.  Is that better?


I believe that miners have overall been profitable, and sure they can hold back some coins in order to speculate on the BTC price going up, and likely they have always engaged in some conduct, but the longer and longer that bitcoin is in business the more and more the dumber miners have been getting screened out, and the more and more that miners have figured out ways to meaningfully balance their approach to cash out from time to time and also to hold back enough coins to speculate.

I believe this as well. If said miners tend to follow sound business practices and withhodl 3 to 6 months of operating capital for just in case, such capitulation theories become moot.

I am sure that there is variation, but the longer that we are in such business, the more likely that some of the BIGGER players are going to engage in more efficient practices in order to attempt to out compete the more reckless players, to the extent that they are able to profit from maximizing efficiencies through sounder business practices.

I doubt that the bitcoin space is getting less and less stable with the passage of time, even though BIGGER and BIGGER players continue to come into the space and attempt to throw larger and larger capital at the situation to attempt to get their way, but in the end, we are seeing longer term (you like long term, right? chart patterns that are seeming to show 4 year fractal and even the stock to flow model to be almost too eerily close to being 100% spot on...

Yes.

If you merely agree with me, then you are giving me nothing to argue with you about.

Yeah, I am not going to proclaim that the BTC price is guaranteed to continue to follow those 4-year fractal and stock to flow model patterns, but they continue to serve as some of the best predictors in spite a lot of the maneuvering and dickering around that either BIG money does or even crazy ass shit in the macro financial space.

This seems wise and I reluctantly agree.

ditto, my above response here.

So for example, let's say we get a hundred thousand BTC dumped over a variety of exchanges and BTC prices drop down to $6,500 again, how long is that drop going to last?  I will believe it when I see it.  I am not suggesting that it is NOT impossible, but largely we are seeming way more inclined for UPpity than DOWNity, currently, even if we experience a few more dumpenings of coins to attempt to shake out some more weak hands, but if even the weakhands are not being shook, then I suppose that they are NOT fitting in the definition of weak hands.

Personally, I would not mind witnessing of shaking some of the ethereum and some of that defi bullshit smoke and mirror froth.. those areas seem way more vulnerable than speculative seemingly lame-ass theories of purported BTC miner capitulation.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Stronghands are not shook...ever. I thought you knew this JuanSnowGee.

I can see that you are getting angry toxicmoxic, and I am sorry about that.   Cry Cry



----

TypeError: must be toxic2040, not wordybot


Please stand by as we run heuristics and reboot toxic2040.exe


That is all.

You better reboot and come back with some better proclamations.. .Maybe hook up with torque?  He's been coming out with some doosey conspiracy wannabe theories, lately.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Hopium.

My body is ready:

Quote

#Bitcoin  after the Halving
Aug. 31, 2020

111 days after the 3rd halving.
#BTC  at $11,732.

Looking solid 👇


https://twitter.com/ecoinometrics/status/1300448468377378816?s=21


Confidence bands based on past halvings.
I am happy with this slight underperformance, diminishing returns, I am ok with that.

It's unlikely we will see growth the same as the past halvings. I think ~3-5x the prior ATH (so 60-100k) is a reasonable peak this time around. 

TheJuice = pessimist (aka party poop)   Cry Cry

#thatisall
OutOfMemory
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 672
Merit: 1141


*Toxic Bitcoin Maximalist*


View Profile
August 31, 2020, 08:23:44 PM

Hopium.

My body is ready:

Quote

#Bitcoin  after the Halving
Aug. 31, 2020

111 days after the 3rd halving.
#BTC  at $11,732.

Looking solid 👇


https://twitter.com/ecoinometrics/status/1300448468377378816?s=21


Confidence bands based on past halvings.
I am happy with this slight underperformance, diminishing returns, I am ok with that.

It's unlikely we will see growth the same as the past halvings. I think ~3-5x the prior ATH (so 60-100k) is a reasonable peak this time around. 


In terms of market cap, i'd disagree. And then there's that thing about scarcity.
Acceptance is the key here. Derivatives might actually help, while slowing down market cap growth in the beginning.
Toxic2040
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1204
Merit: 2386



View Profile
August 31, 2020, 08:26:43 PM

Voted $12.0k - $12.5k.
Quite some resistance to take out until even touching $12k, though.


fillippone
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1274
Merit: 7354


Merit Rascal wannabe Merit Cycler


View Profile
August 31, 2020, 08:29:51 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (6)

Hopium.

My body is ready:

Quote

#Bitcoin  after the Halving
Aug. 31, 2020

111 days after the 3rd halving.
#BTC  at $11,732.

Looking solid 👇


https://twitter.com/ecoinometrics/status/1300448468377378816?s=21


Confidence bands based on past halvings.
I am happy with this slight underperformance, diminishing returns, I am ok with that.

It's unlikely we will see growth the same as the past halvings. I think ~3-5x the prior ATH (so 60-100k) is a reasonable peak this time around.  


In terms of market cap, i'd disagree. And then there's that thing about scarcity.
Acceptance is the key here. Derivatives might actually help, while slowing down market cap growth in the beginning.


Two opposing forces:
  • Downward pressure: bigger market caps drags price action, as more money inflow is required to move the price
  • Upward pressure: every day the S2F holds, it gets stronger and stronger, so future appreciation gets discounted into price, providing a lift to prices.

It’s a battle.

👇 👇 👇 someone send merits to this men. I am dry.
LFC_Bitcoin
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 2646
Merit: 5725


One of the world's leading Bitcoin-powered casinos


View Profile
August 31, 2020, 08:31:48 PM
Merited by fillippone (2), d_eddie (1), ivomm (1), OutOfMemory (1)

I think we’ll top out at around $150,000 in late 2021. It all depends on how much the money printing effects fiat currencies & how badly traditional assets depreciate due to covid over the next 18 months. If bitcoin is seen as some kind of safe haven & people flock to it then the top end of what fillippone posted could materialise.

I’m saying $150,000 top though (current estimate).
OutOfMemory
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 672
Merit: 1141


*Toxic Bitcoin Maximalist*


View Profile
August 31, 2020, 08:44:00 PM
Last edit: August 31, 2020, 09:00:52 PM by OutOfMemory



Two opposing forces:
  • Downward pressure: bigger market caps drags price action, as more money inflow is required to move the price
  • Upward pressure: every day the S2F holds, it gets stronger and stronger, so future appreciation gets discounted into price, providing a lift to prices.

It’s a battle.


I didn't look at this as simple as that, but you quite nailed it, imho.
You can see the increasing linear spread of market cap and price figures, for example on coinmarketcap graphs.
The more BTC get's recognized as what it is, the more inflow acceleration will occur as a logical result.
But i'm uncertain how increasing inflation will influence the latter. In critical times, people tend to fall back to traditional solutions, namely gold.

EDIT:
@JJG: Don't call me bearish just because of that statement about gold  Grin
Bitcoin should take over, imo. Only a matter when people will grasp this.
jbreher
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2912
Merit: 1515


lose: unfind ... loose: untight


View Profile
August 31, 2020, 08:45:44 PM
Last edit: August 31, 2020, 09:05:11 PM by jbreher

By the way, I managed to withdraw everything from Bitmex before going through the latest KYC/AML doorway. Anybody still keeping funds with them must complete identification before they can trade, deposit or withdraw.

same story with Bitstamp some time ago (don't remember which year it was). Bitstamp switched to KYC/AML.

Still looking for a DEX that allows trading pairs of BTC:USD, BCH:USD, and/or BSV:USD, and is actually... you know... decentralized. Suggestions?

I think thats not possible, you need to use a stablecoin pair if you want to trade for fiat.

Yes, it seems fundamentally an unsquarable circle. I keep lookin' tho.

So, given stated constraints and preferences, how about a suggestion for a DEX for core:honest-stablecoin? Maybe for BTC:USDC? And actually... you know ... decentralized?
jojo69
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 2296
Merit: 3015


1/21000000 , the only math you need to know


View Profile
August 31, 2020, 09:10:10 PM

nutildah
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2296
Merit: 5254


Shitcoin 3.0 Distribution Now Underway


View Profile
August 31, 2020, 09:12:52 PM

^^^
reported to Moderator and Admin
sirazimuth
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2478
Merit: 2097


born once atheist


View Profile
August 31, 2020, 09:52:40 PM

Oh don't be mean bud.
Lately it would seem the cat's got his tongue...
Pages: « 1 ... 27123 27124 27125 27126 27127 27128 27129 27130 27131 27132 27133 27134 27135 27136 27137 27138 27139 27140 27141 27142 27143 27144 27145 27146 27147 27148 27149 27150 27151 27152 27153 27154 27155 27156 27157 27158 27159 27160 27161 27162 27163 27164 27165 27166 27167 27168 27169 27170 27171 27172 [27173] 27174 27175 27176 27177 27178 27179 27180 27181 27182 27183 27184 27185 27186 27187 27188 27189 27190 27191 27192 27193 27194 27195 27196 27197 27198 27199 27200 27201 27202 27203 27204 27205 27206 27207 27208 27209 27210 27211 27212 27213 27214 27215 27216 27217 27218 27219 27220 27221 27222 27223 ... 29948 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!