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Question: Will we close Nov. at or above Plan B's posited minimum of $98K?
Yes - 43 (37.1%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25495901 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (158 posts by 14 users with 9 merit deleted.)
fillippone
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August 31, 2020, 12:27:32 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (1)

Offtopic / NFSW: From Kenosha, WI Riots: "Are we going to ignore the fact that a dude is suck off another dude in the background ? Wtf 🤣"

WARNING. Cannot unsee: https://i.imgur.com/bOAN10H.jpg
Mhh: although I would very like the above picture to be true, also either one of the two version is photo edited:


 https://nypost.com/2020/08/26/chilling-photos-show-moment-gunman-fatally-shoots-man-in-kenosha/

Also very likely all the pictures taken in the seconds immediately close to this one might have been edited.

Yes, I am fun at parties. Hope this doesn’t make me gain the ignore status 😑
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yes


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August 31, 2020, 01:20:00 PM

Good idea, unarmed but chasing and attacking a man carrying an AR-15.

Darwin at work  Roll Eyes
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August 31, 2020, 02:14:22 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Reset

BobLawblaw
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August 31, 2020, 02:32:20 PM

Voted $12-12.5 this round. Slow, seemingly organic upward momentum from last week, appears to be keeping mostly steady.
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August 31, 2020, 02:59:51 PM

Soon 3/4 of ATH...  Ummm, yawn?  Way to go out on a limb  Cheesy
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August 31, 2020, 03:33:59 PM

Voted $12-12.5 this round. Slow, seemingly organic upward momentum from last week, appears to be keeping mostly steady.

Same.

Slow & steady wins the race, it’s a marathon, not a sprint.
JayJuanGee
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ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin


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August 31, 2020, 03:51:39 PM


Vinny Lingham does not have much (if any) credibility in these here parts in recent years.  #justsaying



I'm no Crypto CEO, but I stand by my earlier, very conservative (near-bearish) predictions for 2020/2021:

2020 (Halving): $8500
2020 (EOY): $13,000 <-- Predicted
2021 (Q4): $30,000 <-- Predicted

I will be so happy to be proven wrong though...

You have more credibility than Vinny.
cygan
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in crypto we trust💎🖐start hodl.exe


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August 31, 2020, 03:53:35 PM


https://twitter.com/binance/status/1300070773655183362

its time for the next evolution Grin
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August 31, 2020, 03:53:55 PM

Tomorrow is the close of the monthly candle and will bring further clarity as what lies ahead.  #dyor

Do you really believe that there is any kind of material significance to monthly candles?

Are monthly candles used by anything?  Bots?   Sure, they might be displayed here and there, but really significance?

Remember, from time to time, we also have quarterly, yearly and even 4 year candles being touted about, too.

I am not proclaiming any kind of non-significance of these various candles, but I wonder if you are really seriously excited about such impending monthly candle close or you are just a tease?    Tongue Tongue Tongue

yes

My interest stems from the fact that monthly candles describe long term macro trends and that is where my interest in bitcoin lies...long term. As for material significance? I am not sure how much can be gleaned from monthlies for day to day trading..which I think is what the majority of hodlers in this thread are focused on. We dont even have 9 years of monthly candles yet..just over 100 candles maybe? That is not enough of a statistically relevant number to be making assumptions on. Each month closed reduces noise however..so again...yes, I am excited.
----

In approximately 2 to 6 weeks...miners capitulate and we see some form or another of a V pattern.

Do you really believe that miners are on the edge?  There is a lot of behind the scenes with miners, and surely over the years and the various halvenings, we have had a variety of nonsense miner death spiral theories spouted out that do not end up playing out, but seems that part of the underlying presumption of your miner capitulation theory would be that there is something unsustainable going on behind the scenes in mining.

Sure we could have a three gorges dam rupture or something catastrophic like that, but that does not seem to be being calculated in the scenario that you are conjecturing, toxic.

I look at the recent halvening and the largely stable hashing power being thrown at bitcoin with even a slightly high point after this last difficulty adjustment:

https://btc.com/stats/diff?_ga=2.166892222.1079250679.1586286038-48233127.1586286038

In my potentially rosey eyes, mining hash rate continues to appear bullish as fuck on an ongoing basis, including the difficulty adjustments that were made before and after our most recent halvening and really how steady the ongoing upward pressures on difficulty continues to seem as UPpity.  Am I missing something?

yes

Perhaps I was not clear enough in my statements. I think there is a difference between miners turning off rigs due to profitability and affecting difficulty and miners having to dump coin to pay bills. Which the latter is what I was referring to. I believe some miners have been hodling coins on the possibility that there might be a significant rise in price and at some point selling capitulation might be a factor. Again..in my humble opinion.
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August 31, 2020, 03:59:18 PM

Voted $12-12.5 this round. Slow, seemingly organic upward momentum from last week, appears to be keeping mostly steady.

Same.

Slow & steady wins the race, it’s a marathon, not a sprint.

Right up until its a sprint...
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August 31, 2020, 04:01:23 PM

Reset




+1 WOsMerit

thanks info

JayJuanGee
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August 31, 2020, 04:02:43 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

~ Am I missing something?

Not much really, just the fud that attacks mining all the time, whether China fud or USA, which stalls the ever-up hashrate sometimes.

CCP really wants bitcoin out of China (lol) and USA has mixed success getting it in.

Let's say that 2/3 of BTC mining got knocked out for a variety of reasons in the coming months, then of course, there would be drama and FUD spreading, but at the same time BTC difficulty level is going to adapt every two weeks as the hashpower changes, in order to adjust to whatever might be going on, and king daddy could give less than two shits about from where (or what jurisdiction) such hashpower comes, and king daddy gives less than two shits if 95% of the hashpower leaves.  Of course, if there is lower hashpower happens, then there could be means to attack it while using less amount of resources, too. 

maybe depends on where that hash that disappears from. what if its from mostly one or two of the top pools. if one of the remaining pools suddenly has over 51% of that remaining hashpower there could be some fear of that pool taking advantage of it for nefarious purposes. that type of drama did happen years back and although it was settled pretty fast (the pool that had near/over 51% prevented new miners from joining iirc) if it happens again maybe the price would be affected.

i dont really keep track of the btc pool hash distribution as i just mine shitcoins on auto exchange pools for btc. someone here will likely have some insight on that (philip maybe?).


I largely recall that incident with Ghash.IO in mid 2014, and I thought that they largely discouraged continue movement into their pool, and it was easy to move from pool to pool, even in mid-2014

https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/184427-one-bitcoin-group-now-controls-51-of-total-mining-power-threatening-entire-currencys-safety

I think that these days mining is even more mobile, and sure it is possible that mining power could end up consolidating into a bad actor, but so far we have not been seeing those kinds of kill the golden goose kinds of plays -

I am not going to presume all of the miners are good, and I am not going to presume that there might not be attempts for bad actors to overtake hashpower, so then we get another test of who is in charge of bitcoin.. miners or nodes... yes, there could be drama 2.0 in regards, to who is in charge of bitcoin - even though currently, we seem to have more speculation about such evil miners then actually witnessing such evil miners play out (and of course, they are covertly stacking hashing power so that they can attack all of a sudden rather than gradually.... perhaps?  perhaps?  there is likely good hashing power stacking covertly, too, and again, back to nodes.. are the nodes going to be able to figure out the difference between good and bad?). 

We can always speculate that "bad things are going to happen" in regards to mining, and those theories have been batted around since at least 2014, if not before, but it seems that mining has become more and more distributed and even various miners are making efforts to invest in mining in order to be able to have some mobility (and ability to turn on mining power) in order to attempt to deal with a variety of potential attacks... and seems to me that if these variety of attacks were becoming more likely, then we would see fewer mining pools and less mining power with the passage of time, but instead we continue to see more mining pools and more hashing power.  Go figure.
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August 31, 2020, 04:25:58 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (2), infofront (1), OROBTC (1)

I can't even even about that. Things are getting crazy in parts of the country. Really don't like what BLM and Antifa are trying to foment.

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August 31, 2020, 04:31:51 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (2)

I can't even even about that. Things are getting crazy in parts of the country. Really don't like what BLM and Antifa are trying to foment.


This is really worst thing around the world we have riots in many countries with burning properties and killing innocent peoples just in name of peace love and humanity just because of this now I am not watching any news channel.
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August 31, 2020, 04:39:25 PM

...just because of this now I am not watching any news channel.

The MSM is complicit. I'm barely seeing 5% MSM coverage of the "boots-on-the-ground" reporting of incidents being posted on Twitter.
JayJuanGee
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August 31, 2020, 04:41:13 PM
Last edit: August 31, 2020, 06:56:34 PM by JayJuanGee
Merited by 600watt (1)

Tomorrow is the close of the monthly candle and will bring further clarity as what lies ahead.  #dyor

Do you really believe that there is any kind of material significance to monthly candles?

Are monthly candles used by anything?  Bots?   Sure, they might be displayed here and there, but really significance?

Remember, from time to time, we also have quarterly, yearly and even 4 year candles being touted about, too.

I am not proclaiming any kind of non-significance of these various candles, but I wonder if you are really seriously excited about such impending monthly candle close or you are just a tease?    Tongue Tongue Tongue

yes

My interest stems from the fact that monthly candles describe long term macro trends and that is where my interest in bitcoin lies...long term. As for material significance? I am not sure how much can be gleaned from monthlies for day to day trading..which I think is what the majority of hodlers in this thread are focused on.

Just because we are talking about walls and BTC price movement in the short term, does not really mean that we give too many shits about short term BTC price movements - or that we are not keeping long term likely UPpity in mind.

You are participating in those same conversations and talking about what you believe about UP or DOWN in the short term, so shouldn't we lump you in the same category regarding what your concerns are because you are regularly posting about such?

We dont even have 9 years of monthly candles yet..just over 100 candles maybe? That is not enough of a statistically relevant number to be making assumptions on.

Maybe that is why we might use monthly candles to see pretty patterns but not necessarily tie too much distinguishing characteristics from them that we cannot get out of weekly candles.

Each month closed reduces noise however..so again...yes, I am excited.
----

Not going to criticize you for being cccccciiittttteeeeee!!!!!!!

 Tongue Tongue Tongue


In approximately 2 to 6 weeks...miners capitulate and we see some form or another of a V pattern.

Do you really believe that miners are on the edge?  There is a lot of behind the scenes with miners, and surely over the years and the various halvenings, we have had a variety of nonsense miner death spiral theories spouted out that do not end up playing out, but seems that part of the underlying presumption of your miner capitulation theory would be that there is something unsustainable going on behind the scenes in mining.

Sure we could have a three gorges dam rupture or something catastrophic like that, but that does not seem to be being calculated in the scenario that you are conjecturing, toxic.

I look at the recent halvening and the largely stable hashing power being thrown at bitcoin with even a slightly high point after this last difficulty adjustment:

https://btc.com/stats/diff?_ga=2.166892222.1079250679.1586286038-48233127.1586286038

In my potentially rosey eyes, mining hash rate continues to appear bullish as fuck on an ongoing basis, including the difficulty adjustments that were made before and after our most recent halvening and really how steady the ongoing upward pressures on difficulty continues to seem as UPpity.  Am I missing something?

yes

Perhaps I was not clear enough in my statements. I think there is a difference between miners turning off rigs due to profitability and affecting difficulty and miners having to dump coin to pay bills. Which the latter is what I was referring to. I believe some miners have been hodling coins on the possibility that there might be a significant rise in price and at some point selling capitulation might be a factor. Again..in my humble opinion.

Of course, similar with traders, there are going to be all kinds of variation within any identified group, so yeah you are entitled to having your doom and gloom theory about miners potentially being over extended, even though I do not really buy that theory, personally.

I believe that miners have overall been profitable, and sure they can hold back some coins in order to speculate on the BTC price going up, and likely they have always engaged in some conduct, but the longer and longer that bitcoin is in business the more and more the dumber miners have been getting screened out, and the more and more that miners have figured out ways to meaningfully balance their approach to cash out from time to time and also to hold back enough coins to speculate.

I doubt that the bitcoin space is getting less and less stable with the passage of time, even though BIGGER and BIGGER players continue to come into the space and attempt to throw larger and larger capital at the situation to attempt to get their way (to manipulate up or to manipulate down or to push extreme price movements - if they can), but in the end, we are seeing longer term (you like long term, right?) chart patterns that are seeming to show 4-year fractal BTC price prediction model and even the stock to flow BTC price prediction model to be almost too eerily close to being 100% spot on...

Yeah, I am not going to proclaim that the BTC price is guaranteed to continue to follow those 4-year fractal and stock to flow model patterns, but they continue to serve as some of the best BTC price directional predictors in spite a lot of the maneuvering and dickering around that either BIG money does or even crazy-ass shit in the macro financial space.

So for example, let's say we get a hundred thousand BTC dumped over a variety of exchanges (from miners or retail or whoever) and BTC prices drop down to $6,500 again, how long is that drop going to last?  I will believe it when I see it.  I am not suggesting that it is NOT possible to achieve more large BTC price drops and to sustain them for lower and longer than seems feasible (or sustainable), but largely we are seeming way more inclined towards UPpity rather than DOWNity, currently, even if we experience a few more dumpenings of coins to attempt to shake out some more weak hands, but if even the weakhands are not being shook, then I suppose that they are NOT fitting into any kind of real world the definition of "weak hands" - they are not weak enough.

Personally, I would not mind witnessing a decent amount of shakening of some of the froth, baloney ethereum and some of that defi , yield farming, bullshit smoke and mirrors nonsense.. those areas seem way more vulnerable to getting some purging than speculative seemingly lame-ass theories of purported BTC miner capitulation.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

I can't even even about that. Things are getting crazy in parts of the country. Really don't like what BLM and Antifa are trying to foment.



Part of the reason that rioters are both so adamant and willing to riot is that they hardly have shit to lose.  In other words they do not have property.. so stop trying to act like they are burning property and they have their own property.. they do not.

That's largely why they are rioting.

There has been systematic fucking around with regular people (who have turned into rioters) and even giving so many of the spoils to the rich, and lack of attention to the infrastructure of normies, so normies start to feel that they have nothing to lose - they turn into rioters.

normies are just like us (even though many of us have bitcoin.. and many normies do not know about bitcoin)

By the way, there is no such thing as antifa, too.. it is a made up acronym that tries to suggest that rioters are some kind of organized entity, when they are just a bunch of frustrated and unorganized normies.. who don't have property or seem to have opportunities
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August 31, 2020, 04:46:53 PM
Last edit: August 31, 2020, 05:12:06 PM by bitebits

Regarding creating wealth, patience, financial independence, compound interest, leverage, etc etc. If you have 3.5 hours to spare (which I have because painting the house) would definitely recommend listing to the podcast by @Naval:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=1-TZqOsVCNM

(quite sure this is something you enjoy listening to JJG)
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August 31, 2020, 04:57:44 PM
Merited by explorer (1), BobLawblaw (1)

There has been systematic fucking around with regular people (who have turned into rioters) and even giving so many of the spoils to the rich, and lack of attention to the infrastructure of normies, so normies start to feel that they have nothing to lose - they turn into rioters.

normies are just like us
I don't care how frustrated they are, I have something they apparently lack... morality, ethics, compassion, and law-abiding.

Anarchistic rioters and looters are not "peaceful protesters with a cause", they are criminals. So stop justifying their actions.

By the way, there is no such thing as antifa, too.. it is a made up acronym that tries to suggest that rioters are some kind of organized entity, when they are just a bunch of frustrated and unorganized normies.. who don't have property or seem to have opportunities

Ok whatever you say Jay...  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

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August 31, 2020, 05:03:24 PM

...
If you have 3.5 hours to spare (which I have because painting the house) ...

Do you have 3.5 hours to spare becaise you are putting off painting the house, or because you are waiting for a coat of paint to dry?
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August 31, 2020, 05:54:35 PM

^ Finally bit the bullet and got myself some fancy Bluetooth earplugs. Can paint and listen to podcasts simultaneously!

(Jobs like house painting do not scale according to Nadal, not good to get wealthy. But it does help lowering my spending, free exercise and I find it relaxing for the brain.)  
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