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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26404302 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Phil_S
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September 25, 2020, 07:23:17 PM

All non-public communications should be encrypted.  Period.

If you only encrypt selected things, then you are red-flagging those things as “something to hide”, leaking what is in practical effect contextual metadata, and inviting targeted attackers to seek specifically the things that you wanted to encrypt.  Oops.



W0rd.

If you don't mind red-flagging yourself as the-guy-who-encrypts-everything, of course...
Biodom
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September 25, 2020, 07:41:35 PM

today the dollar got stronger but bitcoin also was rising.  usually, when the dollar is strong bitcoin is falling and when the dollar is weak, bitcoin price rises. check the charts and look what happened in 2017 and also in the first half of 2020.

decouple from eth
decouple from dollar
decouple from gold
decouple from stocks

this will be fun.

BTC already has decoupled from those above and a variety of other asset classes too, such as property, collectibles, etc.



you keep saying this...let's see the data.
In 2020 bitcoin has a pretty good correlation with the stock market.
One can argue that non-correlation seen prior was a temporary phenomenon due to a small size and lack of the institutional investment.
It is plausible to suggest that with the increase of institutional investment, bitcoin will start to correlate more, not less, but I am eager to be convinced otherwise.
If bitcoin has 90-100% correlation to a stock market, it would be less attractive as a potential hedge.
Last of the V8s
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Be a bank


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September 25, 2020, 07:42:08 PM

https://twitter.com/Ragnarly/status/1309577154183622656?s=20

cute little 3d printed gun. 50 cal gun
friends1980
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nutildah-III / NFT2021-04-01


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September 25, 2020, 07:48:18 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

Lot of sadness and concern about, about Ron Paul having a stroke. One of the good guys huh?

https://twitter.com/RonPaul/status/1309567134222233601

I knew I wouldn't have to search very far for this one.

Proud hodler since 2008.

xhomerx10
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September 25, 2020, 08:06:06 PM


Damn in life there is always someone who has more Cheesy https://i.imgur.com/rMhiSPb.jpg

I will settle for my dinner, today I open the fall season with a raclette, a good red wine.

Right now I toast and share a beer with everyone, take care.


 

 

 
LFC_Bitcoin
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#1 VIP Crypto Casino


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September 25, 2020, 08:33:21 PM




Last of the V8s
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Be a bank


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September 25, 2020, 08:34:32 PM

Bitcoin is madly cheap. Absolute bargain Wink
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September 25, 2020, 08:53:29 PM

CryptoTwitter. absolutely bonkers. peak tribalism and a lot of fun.

Gee, thanks. Tongue

It did come off as weird.
I don't use twitter, so ... good luck with all that.
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September 25, 2020, 08:56:50 PM
Last edit: September 25, 2020, 09:08:03 PM by JayJuanGee

today the dollar got stronger but bitcoin also was rising.  usually, when the dollar is strong bitcoin is falling and when the dollar is weak, bitcoin price rises. check the charts and look what happened in 2017 and also in the first half of 2020.

decouple from eth
decouple from dollar
decouple from gold
decouple from stocks

this will be fun.

BTC already has decoupled from those above and a variety of other asset classes too, such as property, collectibles, etc.

you keep saying this...let's see the data.

It is worth repeating..... especially when peeps.. including long-timers like 600watt (who likely know better) seem to have gotten the characterization wrong based no failure/refusal to adequately zoom their lil selfies out a bit MOAR better... (no homo 600w)

You can look at the charts that go from 2012 to present...

For example, look at the DCA chart that makes the comparison between BTC, gold and equities on an 8 year time scale.  You can adjust the time period in order to show shorter periods, but here, we are talking about longer timeframes of 8 years or so.

Bitcoin has 70x price appreciation over that period, Gold and equities have 46% price appreciation.  Of course, there are up and down waves in there that you can see with bitcoin, and gold and equities appear to be flat because they are so god-damned minuscule in comparison to bitcoin.


If you cannot recognize a lack of correlation within those kinds of longer term glances and you need it spoon-fed more to you, that is not on me..


In 2020 bitcoin has a pretty good correlation with the stock market.

Who gives a shit?

Zoom out, and I am not even denying that short term correlations have appeared to exist at several points in BTC's price history and I am not even suggesting to go back before 2012 because in some sense, bitcoin was quite a bit more immature in terms of ways to be able to engage in price discovery, and of course, more liquidity avenues and ways to price discover are developing in BTC on an ongoing basis.. but truly we gotta start somewhere, and 2012 seems to be largely fair for the moment, even if BTC has those others outgunned based on its immaturity that causes quite a bit of the lack of correlation, but of course there are other factors as well that contribute to bitcoin's lack of correlation.


One can argue that non-correlation seen prior was a temporary phenomenon due to a small size and lack of the institutional investment.

Of course, you can you can argue those points, and there are some odds that you could possibly be correct in your assessment.

I would suggest that the odds are against you in making such a bet, and it is on you whether you are going to make such a bet, right?  

Hopefully, you won't drag anyone (especially innocent peeps) else with you in terms of causing them to NOT buy bitcoin, sit on the fence and/or fail refuse to adequately prepare their lil selfies for UPpity.


It is plausible to suggest that with the increase of institutional investment, bitcoin will start to correlate more, not less, but I am eager to be convinced otherwise.

No need to be eager about being convinced because I am not even going to try to convince you ab out whatever the various factors that you are weighing in order to see either past correlation or to speculate about likely future correlation... because of course, those various scenarios that you describe are plausible.. and I am not proclaiming otherwise.

It remains up to you, and others how they are going to allocate their value into BTC as compared with other possible investments (to the extent that they have any value to allocate into BTC) in the event that bitcoin trends UPpity rather than sideways, down or some nonsensical largely correlation scenario.
 

If bitcoin has 90-100% correlation to a stock market, it would be less attractive as a potential hedge.

It is true that bitcoin would not be a very attractive investment under such a hypothetical.. and part of the reason that we hedge is that we do not know the future, exactly.

Historically, we have seen that bitcoin does not come anywhere even close to having had such levels of correlation, and regarding the future, it sure seems quite likely that it will NOT have anything close to having such levels of correlation into future.    Tongue


Sure, you are likely correct that as bitcoin matures, the level of its volatility seems to be coming down and likely to continue to come down.. which may also contribute towards more correlation between bitcoin and other assets (such as stocks, gold and other assets) rather than less correlation.
Biodom
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September 25, 2020, 09:43:26 PM
Last edit: September 25, 2020, 10:51:43 PM by Biodom

All of this verbiage is relevant only if you started LONG time ago.

If you started 1 year ago and DCA ($100/wk), then $$ in btc are amazingly, 100% (or close to it) correlated with Gold and 90% correlated with stocks.

Check for yourself at your fav link.

https://dcabtc.com?sd=2019-09-25&sda=1_year&f=weekly&d=1_year&ac=10000&c=true

Thereby, I pronounce btc "currently correlated"...until it is not.

The fact that it was not correlated in 2012-2019 is great for those who invested back then, including many here, but does nothing for the newcomers.
Maybe for newcomers it is just a better form of money, NOT a better investment vehicle.

However, if btc appreciate just 7% yearly from now on going forward, I would be largely content as long as it is limited to a 50% yearly draw-down, like a stock market and NOT 50% daily decline.

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September 25, 2020, 10:10:53 PM

All of this verbiage is relevant only if you started LONG time ago.

If you stated 1 year ago and DCA ($100/wk), then $$ in btc are amazingly, 100% (or close to it) correlated with Gold and 90% correlated with stocks.

Check for yourself at your fav link.

https://dcabtc.com?sd=2019-09-25&sda=1_year&f=weekly&d=1_year&ac=10000&c=true

Thereby, I pronounce btc "currently correlated"...until it is not.

The fact that it was not correlated in 2012-2019 is great for those who invested back then, including many here, but does nothing for the newcomers.
Maybe for newcomers it is just a better form of money, NOT a better investment vehicle.

However, if btc appreciate just 7% yearly from now on going forward, I would be largely content as long as it is limited to a 50% yearly draw-down, like a stock market and NOT 50% daily decline.



i was indeed making a statement about presently occurring correlation/decoupling. JJG isn't wrong about the long term picture, you are correct regarding shorter terms  Smiley
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September 25, 2020, 10:25:31 PM


~snip

Edit again:  Oh, so was your link specifically to an Urban Dictionary definition of “whore” intended to suggest that I be a hypocrite for finding timeless old stories relevant to new problems, but not chasing idiotic, oftentimes politically motivated fads in language?  If so, that is such an absurd confusion of concepts that I could not guess what you did not say.

~snip


 I'm glad you managed to wade through the absurdity of it all and realize the error of my ways.  Expect the mind of ephemeral Homer when reading my posts.
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September 26, 2020, 12:10:01 AM

Haha, I also guessed that this coin will be promising enough, but seeing the market cap right now, well...
However, is this the biggest shitcoin? because I think that there are so many shitcoins that are more and more dumped and lost down to earth really. Many others have decreased very drastically that makes their holders frustrating. Let's see how some coins in 2017 has very high price and now the price really dumps so highly.
Aise from its shitcoin or not, I fact, the price keeps decreasing. But once more, is it because of the condition of the market today? or really influenced by their statement?
IT is the biggest shitcoin. Have you seen the latest inquest about how much of this LNK has been consistently dumping on to exchanges from one address.
They have determined $258 million usd are in possession and have been dumping since it's inception.
This wallet has recently "released" hundreds of thousands chainlink tokens onto exchanges and was found that the one who was FUDDING because of a short they were holding on an exchange wanted it to be dumped back to $0.50 again.
Follow up on Zeus capital and see what their story into this chainlink saga is all about.
You will see what market manipulation is all about. Undecided

Defi is but a meme money maker. Grin
https://www.coindesk.com/money-reimagined-memes-mean-money

Based seems to be promising project for all this defi nonsense put into one site...

"Based.Money is a project of the Ghouls, a loose consortium of crypto developers, artists, designers and meme makers. Friday night, the outfit will release its newest project since BASED, the rebasing game dropped this summer during the boom of Weird DeFi.
Based.Money is a game that riffs on Ampleforth’s rebasing mechanic, where it makes a daily readjustment in the supply of BASED tokens, adjusting the amount in everyone’s wallet. It’s a game of optimizing for the right time to get in and get out. "

source: https://www.coindesk.com/based-money-moonbase-defi-fair-launch-movement
If this is what your interested in. Cheesy

Let's all play a game!

from my chainlink is it a shitcoin? thread. Cheesy
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5269942.msg55264185#msg55264185

Chainlink team dumping millions in their tokens every week:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YPsut9E9Vo

This project is just like the Ozarks on netflix to the cryptospace. Angry
JayJuanGee
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September 26, 2020, 12:20:41 AM

All of this verbiage is relevant only if you started LONG time ago.

You can call it "verbiage" if you want.  I was merely attempting to give you an explanation and to respond to your various points.

If you started 1 year ago and DCA ($100/wk), then $$ in btc are amazingly, 100% (or close to it) correlated with Gold and 90% correlated with stocks.

Check for yourself at your fav link.

https://dcabtc.com?sd=2019-09-25&sda=1_year&f=weekly&d=1_year&ac=10000&c=true

Of course, I already looked at the various timelines.  The longer that you have been in bitcoin the BIGGER the disparities between bitcoin and the two other assets (gold and equities).

That is not saying anything different from what i said, or points that I was making.

The actual website does not really matter... it is just an easy peasy way of showing comparisons.  I doubt that it really differs much from other websites (except for there is an ability to plug in dollar cost averaging investment information), it is just easy to reference.    



Thereby, I pronounce btc "currently correlated"...until it is not.

You can live in a pie in the sky world too, and hope that you end up being correct.

The fact that it was not correlated in 2012-2019 is great for those who invested back then, including many here, but does nothing for the newcomers.

You are coming off as a bit of a wishful thinking goofball rather than someone who is really trying to account for actual facts.

These same claims of correlation had been made before, too.  You can take other periods of time in which bitcoin had been performing somewhat flat, like in 2011, 2012 and 2015, 2016, and the same kinds of claims of correlation could have been made.. and sometimes they were... at least in 2015/2016... but I was not around in 2011/2012 and of course, Bitcoin was much smaller back then, too.

Maybe for newcomers it is just a better form of money, NOT a better investment vehicle.

For newcomers it is better to take a long investment horizon and build your investment, and 10 or 20 years, will have good chances of appreciating against other assets or other investments..

that better form of money nonsense largely died with the BIG blockers and those nonsense narratives, even though those narratives continue to exist somewhat in a less predominant form.

On an individual basis, of course, you can find people who think all kinds of nonsensical things... so there is that angle, too.,, You can proclaim "maybe people think" blah blah blah..,. but seems like nonsense. Maybe you think those things, and you are suggesting that other people think those same things, too?

However, if btc appreciate just 7% yearly from now on going forward, I would be largely content

Personally, I am already prepared for that... so no problema with me.... I was thinking at least 5.5% when I got into bitcoin in late 2013, and it largely has performed way above expectations, even though it took a bit of time (3 years-ish) for my first purchased coins to be profitable.

as long as it is limited to a 50% yearly draw-down, like a stock market and NOT 50% daily decline.

Who knows... ?

Seems likely that BIG drawdowns will continue to occur... and those 50% daily drops could happen too.., from time to time... Maybe you should just get out of bitcoin now so that you don't have to worry about 50% drawdowns.. you could get out right now, or maybe slowly between now and $17k..   If you don't want to sell all of it, just sell most of it, so that you are not so psychologically bothered.. Perhaps you are a bit over invested since you are suggesting that some of those possible considerable volatility events happenings are too much for you?    

Ultimately, you need to find a comfortable balance for yourself.. could help you from overly worrying which seems to be skewing what you are saying in your most recent posts.

All of this verbiage is relevant only if you started LONG time ago.

If you stated 1 year ago and DCA ($100/wk), then $$ in btc are amazingly, 100% (or close to it) correlated with Gold and 90% correlated with stocks.

Check for yourself at your fav link.

https://dcabtc.com?sd=2019-09-25&sda=1_year&f=weekly&d=1_year&ac=10000&c=true

Thereby, I pronounce btc "currently correlated"...until it is not.

The fact that it was not correlated in 2012-2019 is great for those who invested back then, including many here, but does nothing for the newcomers.
Maybe for newcomers it is just a better form of money, NOT a better investment vehicle.

However, if btc appreciate just 7% yearly from now on going forward, I would be largely content as long as it is limited to a 50% yearly draw-down, like a stock market and NOT 50% daily decline.

i was indeed making a statement about presently occurring correlation/decoupling. JJG isn't wrong about the long term picture, you are correct regarding shorter terms  Smiley

Look  at 600w, the diplomat.



 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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September 26, 2020, 01:04:20 AM

the evening wall report


#dyor
1h


tail hedl high...kitteh marks a tree
4h


Bitcoin closes out the day on a pretty strong note I think. Finishing the day at $10,689.81 bulls clawed back above the short term tenken sen support level of $10,660.66 
Stymieing bear attempts to drive price down under $10.5k and wicking a nice little rocket candle to boot.
Now on to November and to the rest of what has been a heck of a year. Stay strong gentlebeings. Well done.
D

#observethemoon


Tomorrow is International Observe the Moon night...just saying.   Cool
https://moon.nasa.gov/observe-the-moon-night/
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September 26, 2020, 01:07:19 AM

OK, @JJG, you have no counterpoint, basically.
Historical references are of limited value going forward.
I could give a rat's ass about the 20 year horizon, mostly interested in 3-7 years time frame.
In the time frame long enough, we are all dead and then ....the Universe is dead too.

nullius
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September 26, 2020, 01:11:10 AM

Expect the mind of ephemeral Homer when reading my posts.

I misunderstood your emoji, until I just checked the associated alt text.  D’oh!  I apologize for having come off as insulting to you about that issue.  I will edit my prior post to note this.

Homer Simpson is a cultural pet peeve of mine, for so very many reasons; but I would not have made that personal to you, if I hadn’t thought that you were ridiculing me for not being sufficiently “hip” and modern!

Interpretation of emojis, icons, and other pictograms:  Another modern problem. :-(


~snip

Edit again:  Oh, so was your link specifically to an Urban Dictionary definition of “whore” intended to suggest that I be a hypocrite for finding timeless old stories relevant to new problems, but not chasing idiotic, oftentimes politically motivated fads in language?  If so, that is such an absurd confusion of concepts that I could not guess what you did not say.

~snip


 I'm glad you managed to wade through the absurdity of it all and realize the error of my ways.

I object just as vehemently to the political correction of old stories as to the analogous butchery of language.

(A) Good:  Apply old fable, allegorical myth, or other literary scenario to new situation.

(B) Bad:  Bowdlerize old story because it’s XYZist.  A Newspeak of cultural semiotics, similar to the Newspeak of individual words.  Have you seen “modernized” versions of old stories?  Disgusting!

(C) Good:  Use old language in the modern day, with such minor adaptations and neologisms as rationally required to communicate about genuinely new things (e.g., “aeroplanes”, “motor-cars”, or the “Internetwork”).

(D) Bad:  Orwellian Newspeak.  Hardfork* the language without consensus, so that cultural scammers can hijack control of cultural values by artificially twisting and limiting the words used to express concepts.

You call me a hypocrite for embracing A, but rejecting D.  You thus hold that A is like D.

I say that A : C :: B : D.

Mmmm, analogies.


intentional non sequitur : humourous nonsense-analogy :: doughnut : olive branch


* Yes, hardfork.  Longstanding linguistic consensus has been changed in an irrational way; and the backwards-incompatible change is enforced by virtual lynch mobs, Kafkaesque persecutions, and socioeconomic terrorism.  Observe how people get attacked over using the “incorrect” pronouns, i.e. the correct pronouns!  If you refuse the hardfork changes, then there are zealots who want you universally shunned, fired from your job, and cancelled out of existence.  And they are gaining more power by the day—nobody pushes back!
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September 26, 2020, 01:46:20 AM
Last edit: September 26, 2020, 01:56:56 AM by JayJuanGee

OK, @JJG, you have no counterpoint, basically.
Historical references are of limited value going forward.
I could give a rat's ass about the 20 year horizon, mostly interested in 3-7 years time frame.
In the time frame long enough, we are all dead and then ....the Universe is dead too.

I thought that I responded to all points.   You were the one protecting the it is correlated thesis.. and I was saying nonsense.. and you believe that I needed to provide more evidence, perhaps?  which I believe that I provided more than enough..

 In any event, you likely realize that no one knows the future, but the three most dominant bitcoin price prediction models have some pretty decent ways in which you can be helped to determine how to allocate, if that is the problema on your mind, currently...

You know the models as well as me, even if you might not give much credence to any of them or their combined power... which are: 1) stock to flow 2) four-year fractal and 3) s-curve adoption based on networking effects and metcalfe principles.

Sure, if you have been in bitcoin for a while, then you have already past what i had already suggested several times to be a minimum of a 4-year investment timeline for your bitcoins, and so if you are adding another 3 years on to your timeline, minimum, then what are you wanting me to suggest that you consider?  

You want to speculate correlation blah blah blah, and you seem to be worried about volatility in the future, especially that downside volatility could happen at various points that might not be convenient for you, either psychologically or financially.

I already suggested the possibility of lessening your investment in BTC if you are so worried that you might have too much in and you cannot tolerate the possible benefits of bitcoin might NOT be as great as the possible corrections, due to correlation theories, and if you believe that bitcoin is not any better than stocks, gold or whatever you are considering as a possible reallocation of the value of your investment.

Regarding timeline, you well know that someone in his/her 20s is going to have longer investment time horizons as compared with someone in his/her 30s, 40s, 50s or 60s... and surely someone in his 30s or 40s, might become a bit worried if s/he were to pull any kind of fuck you lever too early.. so might well be in a harder place to actually start to divest (or liquidate) any of their bitcoin so they may well be willing to stick to longer investment time horizons... so death woould not be immediately on the minds of the folks in the lower end of the age-spectrum.

I have surely NOT been suggesting that peeps should not have shorter-term plans to make your "we are all dead" statement make any sense.  

Based on ongoing comments from you over the past several months, you seem to be who has high expectations of your minimum portfolio value to need to be something like $6million and accordingly seeming to be way more reluctant to suggest the pulling of any kind of fuck you lever, as compared to me considering that $2million might be more of a realistic aim.. though I am not really against anyone who feels a need for some kind of cushion.. so I have been recently ongoingly considering the 200 week moving average as a good Bitcoin price calculation point.. which is currently at about $6,700.

 Surely, if you are not even considering the fuck you stage, then you would be merely considering how much of your value to allocate into bitcoin or to reallocate out of bitcoin in the even that you believe that the BTC price might be appreciating faster than you believe to be sustainable.. ..

In other words, you seem to be the one who is ongoingly fearing the blow off top and those kinds of ways to protect yourself from downside volatility.. which likely says more about your overallocation into bitcoin than anything or at least your need to get more comfortable with whatever allocation levels that you have chosen and your plan to deal with possible blow off tops or other kinds of downside volatility - especially if you are starting to contemplate that BTC upside scenarios might not even be coming to bitcoin.   Cry Cry Cry   which hopefully does not cause you to sell too much too soon or fail to sufficiently invest.., which could well happen when you have those kinds of fears, too.

In the end, I have hardly any kind of idea what you are saying, except that bitcoin might end up turning into being correlated to various other investment possibilities that you have such as stocks, gold blah blah blah, which surely might be true, but it might not as well, so hopefully you are adequately prepared for the scenario that bitcoin might not be as correlated as you are anticipating it to be.  Go figure what it is that you have been saying, exactly?  

Perhaps the below image captures the seemingly ambiguous position that you currently find ur lil selfie?



 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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September 26, 2020, 02:37:16 AM
Merited by friends1980 (1)

I am still buying, it's just I don't like the action since the summer of 2019.
Something changed and I can feel it, however it is difficult to convey intuition.
In 2017 everybody was very concerned about btc split,e tc, yet it went from 1K to 20K.
In 2019-2020 everybody (PlanB, PTJ, prominent bloggers, etc) keep saying how great btc is, invest half a bil $$ (the Saylor man), yet here we are, STUCK (and lower than in 2019, which is much earlier in the supposedly bullish cycle).
Nobody had rationalized these doldrums yet.
The fact that Pomp (with an unknown investment prowess) and Raoul Pal are now all in btc does not give me particularly good vibes.
They are good at blogging, NOT investment.
I look at Raoul Pal as a contrarian indicator...usually whatever he says moves 180 degrees (aka in the opposite direction).
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September 26, 2020, 03:05:25 AM
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