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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26400318 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
nutildah
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October 02, 2020, 11:23:47 PM
Merited by 600watt (1)

So, yes:  Antifa are Communists.

Meh. You're talking about the original Antifa which was only in existence for about 2 years. They have technically been defunct since 1933. Modern day Antifa (as it pertains to the US) is not directly tied to any communist party, which have severely fallen out of favor starting in the mid 1940s. It's not directly tied to anything except the ideology of fighting fascism.

Not many people in the US or anywhere for that matter identify themselves as communists anymore, or even socialists. The majority of voting Antifa members are obviously going to vote for Biden and not Howie Hawkins, who is the socialist / green party candidate for this year.

Don't understand what the point of trying to pigeonhole an amorphous movement with no real leadership was.
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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October 02, 2020, 11:28:50 PM
Last edit: October 02, 2020, 11:46:34 PM by vapourminer

..... how many joints in a lid?

Quote from: Cheech and Chong “Lets Make a Dope Deal”
“One.......I roll big joints man.....”

“AND THE JUDGES SAY THATS OKAY, THEY ROLL BIG JOINTS TOO!!!”

correct!

come to think of it, the answer always seems to be one no matter what the amount of weed. hmmm probably time to test those bed sheet size papers now. be back (probably much) later.

+1 WOsMerit



I get about 25 or so on average. Depends on whats happening and potency to some extent.
I am not sure how many even remember what a lid is or how much it is.


uh wut wer wee tauking aboutt?? niiiiiiiice

lidzs? bout trtee fitty
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October 02, 2020, 11:33:05 PM
Merited by Amel (1)

https://nypost.com/2020/10/02/chinese-state-media-outlet-mocks-trump-for-contracting-coronavirus/?utm_medium=SocialFlow&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=NYPTwitter

CCP asking for it. I bet Trump does something to really piss them off like officially recognizing Taiwan as a country.

A little global uncertainty will be good for King Bitcoin.

I doubt that it is in anyone's interest (especially BTC HODLers) to really be asking for more societal drama in order for king daddy bitcoin to prosper..

Bitcoin would likely be much better served by fewer Armageddon-wannabe scenarios.

Bitcoiners will be able to see what transpires in 14 13 mo, and if btc is below 55K (the lowest prediction value), then the model is invalidated and there are no other models with any predictive value whatsoever.

I like the fact that, finally, S2F is being harshly criticized because, in my mind, it is making the predictive values more likely to be achieved, paradoxically.

That seems to be a bit of a strange claim about the model being supposedly broken if the BTC price is below $55k by the end of next year...

We will see, Biodom, but your claim seems to be a bit strong and wishful on your behalf, Biodom.. I mean in terms of you wanting to proclaim that the model is either worth very little or not worth anything.. and it is as if you are just rooting on an ongoing basis that the model is not true... ...

for what reason, it is difficult to know for sure..

Seems to me that you are just overly bothered by the model and you are ongoingly trying to figure out ways to discount the model and suggest that it adds little to no value to our thinking about BTC price dynamics, no?

Also, it seems to me that BTC prices could be manipulated down for 13-14 months or even extending 2 years from now or longer .. in order to cause the stock to flow model to appear to be broken.. and so what would that ongoing and persistent manipulation accomplish exactly, if it were to happen?  

Seems to me that such ongoing downward manipulation could cause an explosive BTC price move later on down the road, or maybe such ongoing downward manipulation would cause a shifting of the trendline of the model to get pushed downward within the model.. so I am not clear why you believe that such need to potentially tweak the model would necessarily cause the model to be broken or invalid.. because the model is likely NOT guaranteeing as much as you seem to be wanting to argue that such model guarantees.

It is not what "I claim", it is what the model's author (planB) have said repeatedly.

That sounds more like your interpretation to me, but hey, maybe PlanB did say something that is that dumb...

"My model will be invalid, if it gets manipulated into quasi-oblivion because maths and science rules the world."

That would be a ridiculous posuture in regards to a model that is based on various probabilities rather than certainties.


I see no point to cling to this model either (if it would be falsified).

Of course, you hardly see any value in the model anyhow, you have already asserted that several times and you tend to repeat your assertions at almost any possible opportunity that you can.

Time (Dec 2021) will tell...at least with regards to the original and the followup S2F model(s).

Sure of course.  As I said, I am not wedded to that particular model even though it does seem to have a lot of explanatory effect in terms of where  we have been and where we are.  Sure, it is less solid in terms of its predictive effect, but surely still decently co-integrated in order to be amongst the best of the models including if you supplement it too by taking into account the four-year fractal and the s-curve exponential adoption based on networking effects and metcalfe principles. 

Surely, in my self-described humble bumble opinion, no need to go whining if the supposed bare minimum thresholds either are not met by the anticipated date or if there are delays in meeting such thresholds... but hey, aren't we (the royal we) repeating ourselves?

S2FX model (the most recent one) does not have any time variable and could be ascertained only after a considerable time period, looking backwards.

Surely, good to be a bit flexible on the time frames, even though surely we have seen quite decent past correlation with a couple of the past four-year fractals.. and even though such 4-year fractals are not set in stone, they have tended to show quite remarkable similarity patterns.. take such info (and timelines) with a grain of salt and be a doubting Tomas if it makes you feel more better about some of us becoming richie (hopefully you are included in such becoming MOAR richie status since you are neither waiting to buy nor failing/refusing to adequately pee pare ur lil selfie for UPpity.. Cheesy Cheesy   even if you might be kicking and screaming the whole UPpity way towards getting materially closer and closer to fuck you and your mother status.... so long as you did not fail/refuse to adequately pee pare ur lil selfie..  Tongue Tongue Tongue ).
Biodom
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October 02, 2020, 11:55:47 PM

Sorry, did not follow that.

pee what?

...whatever.

I know what bitcoin is, but really don't know who planB is...a Galileo (or Kepler)-like figure or a Pied Piper?
At first (and for a long time) I thought the former, but now...

cAPSLOCK
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October 03, 2020, 12:13:21 AM


Not many people in the US or anywhere for that matter identify themselves as communists anymore, or even socialists.

Of course people are not going to identify with the failed political ideology responsible for more deaths than any other in the history of the world.

But one of the things the left is fucking good at?  Rebranding.

But that doesn't mean we are not staring at the same toilet full of shit.

Also... in my lifetime I can't thank of may words that seem to be more incorrectly used that "fascist".  I think most people using it have some smeary definition in their head that they equate with "the beliefs of people who I think are bossy and mean".  And this is the picture they hold in their head as they raise their fists and command some innocent couple trying to eat dinner repeat the words the (actual) fascists are screaming at them.

Irony abounds.
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October 03, 2020, 12:19:01 AM
Merited by JimboToronto (1), 600watt (1)

But one of the things the left is fucking good at?  Rebranding.

The Democratic party has never been the Communist party. They're two entirely different things. So its not a "rebranding" of anything.

Also... in my lifetime I can't thank of may words that seem to be more incorrectly used that "fascist".

Funny, I feel the exact same way about people who over-use the word "communist."
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October 03, 2020, 12:22:18 AM
Last edit: May 16, 2023, 01:18:20 AM by fillippone
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (3), 600watt (1), Karartma1 (1), Amel (1)

Fundamentally the market is scared for all the wrong reasons.

MEX did NOT get hacked. No traders will lose coins.

Futures exchanges will clean up their practices.

We'll see less volatility, less scam-wicking, more spot volumes, more organic moves, more institutional money.
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1311941304532627456?s=20

Meanwhile the on-chain fundamentals are showing more new investors are coming in than the mania phase of the last cycle (Dec 2017), without it reflected in price. This is because the unfettered trading games on derivative platforms is holding the price down.
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1311941306818555904?s=20

The CFTC just announced they are turning the volume down on unregulated derivative exchanges and their dominance on price.

BTC is going to pop.
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1311941309007970306?s=20

^Elwar said it to Tongue

This would be one of the most epic plot twist in history.
The icing of the cake is Elwar predicting it.

Adding a picture from one of Willy Woo Tweets:

Quote

The CFTC even hints of the future in the official press release.

https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8270-20



https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1311911779040067587?s=21

That would be awesome...
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October 03, 2020, 12:31:35 AM

the evening wall report



#dyor
1h



4h



D

#stronghands
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October 03, 2020, 12:50:08 AM


But one of the things the left is fucking good at?  Rebranding.



When I was a conservative it meant fiscally conservative and now it means socially (religiously) conservative.

The right has been hijacked.




Quote
Irony abounds.


You got that right.
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October 03, 2020, 01:31:07 AM

Sorry, did not follow that.

pee what?

...whatever.

I know what bitcoin is, but really don't know who planB is...a Galileo (or Kepler)-like figure or a Pied Piper?
At first (and for a long time) I thought the former, but now...

I could give less than two ratt's asses about who is planB.

The ideas do not matter in regards to who he is.

Either you appreciate the ideas or you do not, and largely, PlanB is not saying anything differently than what had been previously said before he came onto the bitcoin scene.  Sure, PlanB is organizing the ideas, but largely he is not saying anything new.

You seem to be distracted in terms of being against ideas for the mere sake of it, and tying such ideas to a person, and the person does not matter at all.

In any event, any of us should appreciate that PlanB has attempted to statistically lay out where BTC price has been, to show where we are at, to account for various ideas in the BTC space and projections of BTC's stock in order to create a meaning and plausible trajectory where BTC's price is likely to go, but he is NOT saying anything more than what was already known before he came into the space (and what he was saying was already being said in differing kinds of ways). 

So sure, currently, PlanB is resonating with peeps and he is packaging up ideas and information in a nice and lovely digestible package... which concededly in the end does end up adding some kind of value and message in and of itself.. but who cares, right?

Part of the point should be that we should not be putting any particular peeps on any kind of pedestal, so of course you are correct in that regard, Biodom... but anyhow, there are all kinds of idea contributors in the bitcoin space, and some peeps are more eloquent than other peeps.

Further, as I said before, there could be a whole hell of a lot of deviation from the BTC price prediction model of PlanB too, based on actual human behavior (manipulations) and also strivenings to cause the BTC price prediction models to become untrue or to make it look like it is NOT true, but until such deviations from PlanB's price prediction model take place or there becomes any need to shift the terms of the model, the model continues to be amongst the best of the datafying of the BTC price predictions...

So sure, this particular PlanB price prediction model is true, until it is NOT.. and even if it might NOT appear to be true, it still might be true...

But still at the same time, fuck PlanB.  NO deifying of peeps - except maybe satoshi, and maybe even that is not appropriate, either? 

So maybe I should say, fuck satoshi, too... hopefully not appearing to be either blasphemous, bitter or ungrateful.. so there is some agreement about no need to deify peeps while still remaining appreciative of their contributions to the space and the ideas which are embedded into the contributions of many others besides Plan B and besides satoshi in order to come to these various kinds of grandeur ideas that have developed from many.  On the other hand, just like you might be suggesting, Biodom, together we can pray to king daddy.. not trying to put words in your lil mousie.. ....

pee pare ur lil selfie... and perhaps thank me later... Wink  Wink    Tongue Tongue
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October 03, 2020, 01:52:28 AM

Posting this without comment:

https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/1311926743784095746

Quote
S2F model is quite possibly an underestimate - model fails upwards, like Bitcoin, "failing" upwards since 2009. Then we'll need a new hyperbitcoinization model.
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October 03, 2020, 02:32:14 AM
Merited by Amel (1)

Posting this without comment:

https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/1311926743784095746

Quote
S2F model is quite possibly an underestimate - model fails upwards, like Bitcoin, "failing" upwards since 2009. Then we'll need a new hyperbitcoinization model.

You seem angry.. Biodom.

Note the expression:  "quite possibly"   Doesn't that give you any sense of assurances?  

You seem to want to proclaim that an overpromising has been going on, and you are going to be resentful if such projected happening does not happen and a bunch of innocent peeps (maybe not you) are mislead into being overly bullish about bitcoin.. and accordingly, a bunch of bulltards exist within the BTC space.. not only PlanB  (who you likely have engaged in the fallacy of misplaced concreteness with regards to his arguments) but also dragging Adam Back into your argument target zone of suggesting that he, too, is making overzealous promises in regards to underlying bitcoin price dynamics..

i.e another person you believe to be overpromising in regards to the future of bitcoin....

Be responsible and take these kinds of representations with a grain of salt - no one is being misled, except dummies.. no investment advice is being given, because each of us needs to conclude for our own lil selfies whether to invest in BTC or not, how much to invest and how to go about investing, if we do - because as you know.. peeps are responsible for themselves and there are no guarantees in bitcoinlandia, even if some peeps draw lines on papers or computer screens and present price prediction models in order to help you (and others) to pee pare ur lil selfies for UPpity (that may or may not happening)..  

The mere placement of those lines on the page / computer screen does not guarantee anything, even if such guarantees seem to be appearing as if they were concrete in your thinking about the situation.. because you see them on a piece of paper/computer screen.

Yes.. you are going to kick and scream while bitcoin is going up (why have we been stuck in $10ks for more than 3 years.. blah blah blah). and say that you have NOT been underinvesting in king daddy, but it is quite hard to imagine that you are NOT holding back some of your value because you remain skeptical and scared and so worried about supposed over guarantees that have been taking place in regards to bitcoin price UPpity.    

I must admit that you most likely need a batman slap.    Tongue Tongue Tongue  Kiss Kiss (no homo)
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October 03, 2020, 02:34:48 AM
Merited by JimboToronto (1), Hueristic (1), Biodom (1), cAPSLOCK (1)


But one of the things the left is fucking good at?  Rebranding.



When I was a conservative it meant fiscally conservative and now it means socially (religiously) conservative.

The right has been hijacked.




Quote
Irony abounds.




You got that right.

There were liberals in the republic party and conservatives in the democratic party.

Rhino 🦏 was a nonexistent concept.

The most dangerous thing possible has happened right wing and extreme right wing are all republican.

left wing and extreme left wing are all democrats.

Bipartisanship is shot. It is a fucking mess.
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October 03, 2020, 03:53:05 AM
Merited by bitebits (1)

GBTC premium is just 6.3% (5th lowest value during the last 5 years).
ETF "drums" are still at a distance, but getting louder.
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October 03, 2020, 05:30:39 AM
Merited by Amel (1)

GBTC premium is just 6.3% (5th lowest value during the last 5 years).
ETF "drums" are still at a distance, but getting louder.

Conclusion?

BTC prices stable now?  BTC losing volatility?

BTC prices are going to stay "stable" from here on out?  (let's say within a few thousand dollars - maybe $8,500 to $12,500 for a couple years, until October-ish of 2022, at least?) 

Upcoming "stable" BTC price movements are going to established earlier propagated BTC price prediction models as NOT valid?



I would NOT suggest such a BTC "stable prices" thesis to be completely out of the question, but gosh, what would be the odds?  Would anyone believe such thing to be possible?

The odds would likely be quite low.., no?

Something less than 20%?  Perhaps even lower, no?
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October 03, 2020, 05:55:49 AM

There were liberals in the republic party and conservatives in the democratic party.

Rhino 🦏 was a nonexistent concept.

So, you are not old enough to remember even the 1960s—a quite recent time, as these things go.

The most dangerous thing possible has happened right wing and extreme right wing are all republican.

left wing and extreme left wing are all democrats.

Bipartisanship is shot. It is a fucking mess.

Since when is “bipartisanship” a good thing?  That is simply an obscurantist way of saying that (a) nobody should have principles, and (b) officially permissible opinion is narrowly confined to a false dichotomy:  One-party rule, with two faces.  That is, in fact, what you have in America.

The only “extremes” of anything that you have in either official faction of your bipolar uniparty are extremes of criminality.  In both factions.  Dominating both factions with nigh unanimity.

The much-ballyhooed “polarization” and “end of bipartisanship” are only a ploy of media hype, to regenerate interest in an entertainment that had been faltering.  Voter turnout rates were plummeting, and that was not “apathy”:  It was wising-up!  More and more people were realizing that they are under one-party rule, and that the one party is a criminal gang hostile to the interests of the vast majority of Americans.

The illusion was being lost—and with it, the consent of the governed upon which the power of all régimes must ultimately repose.  Thus stepped onstage Trump, a professional showman, to stir the pot just enough to get the enthusiasms flowing both for and against him.

Yes, Orange Bogey is manipulating the idiotic left just as much as he is manipulating the idiotic right:  Without Trump, would anybody be eager to vote for Biden?  Both sides are stupid enough to believe that Trump means what he says in his Presidential Tweets!

I think this means that his opponents must be marginally stupider:  The Trump Derangement Syndrome crowd needs for me to explain to them that Trump is a liar, and his fans are fools, and all of Trump’s grandstanding rhetoric is meaningless.  In substance, Trump is approximately equal to Biden—and vice versa.  (As a matter of form, I will admit that Trump is much more amusing.)

This relates to what I intended to post in P&S earlier.  Your whole reality-TV “election” is a dialectic between the followers of Lenin (D), who scream that Kerensky (R) is a right-wing extremist, and the followers of Kerensky, who scream that the extremist butcher Lenin has betrayed the revolution.  This circus would be merely a cheap comedy—if America were not a nuclear-armed rogue terrorist state, which also has had the whole world’s economy by the throat ever since the Nixon Shock, if not earlier.  The tragedy is that neither possible “election” outcome will change that.



Meh. You're talking about the original Antifa... They have technically been defunct since 1933. Modern day Antifa (as it pertains to the US) is not directly tied to any communist party, [...] Not many people in the US or anywhere for that matter identify themselves as communists anymore, or even socialists.

To cut a tedious argument against your habit of arguing from conceited ignorance, let us test your stated principle empirically.  Why don’t I change my nickname to “Sturmabteilung”, and my avatar to this:


Surely, you will be the first to say that that it has nothing to do with Adolf Hitler!  The original NSDAP, including the SA, has been defunct since 1945; and “not many people... identify themselves as [National-Socialists] anymore”.

Indeed, most of the people using Nazi symbols today have much less connection to Hitler than Antifa actually does to Communism.  I always find it remarkable that in 1930s Germany, the ilk of Anglin and r0ach would have been arrested as asocial and sent a labour camp to be made useful.  They come off as badly as if, by analogy, a Jew were to read Der Stürmer as a positive guide to Jewishness.  My first intended WO post, never published, was actually begun as a reply to the aforesaid entomonymous cretin; therein, I described a conversation I once with an old Jew about the worst humiliation to Hitler being entomoid neo-Nazis.  But that is another subject.

[—snip palaver that deserves a Pulitzer Prize...
...for it is more effective apologism than Walter Duranty—]



Of course people are not going to identify with the failed political ideology responsible for more deaths than any other in the history of the world.

But one of the things the left is fucking good at?  Rebranding.

Indeed, they rebranded so well that you suppose that Communism “failed”.  No, it did not fail:  It conquered the world.

Perpend the juxtaposition that in substance, America is today the most International-Communist country in the world, just as J. P. Morgan, et al. intended—and Red China is the most Global-Capitalist country in the world, with masses of proletarian wage-slaves ruled from the stock exchanges by giant global-international corporations.  It is no accident that Marx’s Bible is titled Capital.

The reason why “the left” so excels at “rebranding” is that Communism is not an ideology.  The ideological component is only idiot-bait:  A disposable tool, to manipulate other disposable tools.  At the highest level, the leaders have no ideology at all; they are only pragmatic.  They have no attachment to the espoused ideology which happens to be most convenient on any particular day—nor, of course, to the name “Communism”.  I still use the name “Communism” because a word is needed, and I do not chase after Communist-forced changes in language.  “Communism” concisely identifies the practical doctrine of world revolution by mass subversion that is still being run on a foundation systematized by Karl Marx, although it was not really invented by him.



When I was a conservative it meant fiscally conservative and now it means socially (religiously) conservative.

The right has been hijacked.

In America, before the rise of the 1970s Christian-televangelist New Right (which hijacked quite a few things), “conservatism” meant some concept of Constitutional ordered liberty, with respect for long-existing social institutions.  Obviously, the “liberty” part includes not having a Marxist government steal your money.

In Europe, before people became too Americanized, “conservatism” meant a respect for social class (not Marxist-American “socioeconomic class”), and monarchy and/or aristocracy.

Anywhere else, it means, by definition, conserving the existing order of things.

No “conservatism” can exist without cultural traditions; for otherwise, there is no foundation for anything else to conserve.  Fiscal policy does not exist in a vacuum:  To the contrary, it is only a secondary effect of the ordering of a society.  The worldview that holds economics as primary is actually Marxist, and is designed to dissolve a society to the point that Marxism can take over.
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October 03, 2020, 07:23:08 AM


$10,524
Dominance: 57.2%
#StrongHats
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October 03, 2020, 08:03:38 AM

^
It hurts me just thinking about it
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October 03, 2020, 08:25:12 AM

So far, Donald Trump has never been positive about anything, but he is positive in covid-19 test Cheesy



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