Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BobLawblaw]

May be for the last time we will see a test on $10k?

I've got a bad feeling we're going to briefly dip back into 4 digit territory today. I sincerely hope I'm wrong. Not liking the signs from that recent big red candle...

EDIT: Seeing shorts getting liquidated and large market buys, so maybe we are going up today. Too lazy to screencap Twitter right now.

Are you playing anything these days?

 Jumping back and forth between Path of Exile (trying to grind to level 100 with my main dude. Currently 32% through level 98), Torchlight II, and MS Flight Sim (mostly for silly shenanigans like trying to successfully barrel-roll a 747 without it tearing itself apart, or crashing into an ocean...)

 I tested crashing a 747 into our house before taking out Epstein Island.

[1642730681]

1642730681

[1642730681]

1642730681

[1642730681]

1642730681

[1642730681]

1642730681

[1642730681]

1642730681

[serveria.com]

Historians will one day spend years digging through this thread to understand the evolution of bitcoin in the minds of early bitcoin HODLers.

Hi there, future historians!

a gift for future historians (and bob)

Emmmm don't touch it... for reasons...  

[JayJuanGee]

It already dipped below $10k (I spotted $9,987.86 about 30 minutes ago... lasting for at least 3 minutes).  

You already had your chance.  

In other words: been there, done that.  

crap, just missed triggering a buy i had at 9920 then. catch it later maybe

Usually it is better to put your buy orders at above the BIGGER round numbers (in that case, the BIG number that seemed to have fallen pretty quickly was $10k), but sure, you never know because sometimes the spike does go temporarily past the BIGGER round number (which it did in this case).  

Historically, I have had plenty of orders (both buy and sell) that just miss by a few dollars and sometimes even missing by a few cents.. and sure, sometimes the BTC price does come back to that previous location, so usually it does not pay to change your order locations, unless you are changing your order locations for a different reason.. so overall, our mission as "swing traders" should be to try NOT to be emotional about whether our BTC orders are filled or not, but when they are "close but no cigar," we can become a bit irritated (which surely is a kind of emotional) because of how close the orders had come to filling (without happening).

You are right though, vapourminer.  It seems way too early to call the bottom for this particular cycle, currently - even though in my earlier post, I was playing around with BayAreaCoins about the bottom potentially being "in".... a little hopium on my behalf, probably.

By the way, this time around (the past 24-48 hours), I had BTC buy orders that were located about every $250 increment from $11,300-ish to $10k fill.. so my next buy order is around $9,800-ish... so when the BTC price moves a lot, then surely a lot of orders do end up getting filled (even in my case), and I try to NOT have any second guesses regarding all of the BTC that I bought all the way down the ladder, when I could have timed it and bought them all for lower prices (in theory).. In other words, I have no regrets about how it played out and glad that I was able to feel that I profited from the situation...

I kind of feel like I am supporting the cause and doing my "duties" when those multiple BTC buy orders are filling up all the way down the ladder, while at the same time satisfying my personal interests of stacking more sats along the way, too - even though in retrospect quite a few of them were bought at much higher prices than I "could have bought them" in theory.

Looks like we got our second dip below $10k, and this one lasted for only one minute (about 1 hour before this post), but it was deeper than the previous dip, described above.  So, if vapourminer did not change anything, then his buy order at $9,920-ish would have gotten filled because we got down to $9.902.43, and my next buy order $9,800-ish is still just sitting there... NO problema with me.  I remain neutral about my buy orders getting filled, except of course, if we come within a few dollars of my buy order, then I start to develop a bit of a small preference that it gets filled.. a short term rooting for down (against all reason, but the thought is that if we have gotten this far, what's a few more dollars?.... hahahahahahaha).  

Anyhow, I remain quite biased in my preference for UP rather than DOWN... because even if I might be able to stack a few sats on the way down, it continues to be minuscule amounts of stacking as compared with how much of a benefit comes from purely straight UP.  So let's take this latest dip down from $12,000 to $10k... that's a $2k dip in prices that my system has caused me to increase my stash by .1% a most (after the down and the up takes place, I maybe have stacked an additional .1% through my system)... Pretty piddly in the whole scheme of things, and would be way better off by dollar cost averaging over the longer term and continuing to add value on a regular basis.  Problem with my current personal situation is that I no longer feel that I am in a situation to continue to inject value into BTC because I both overachieved my goal in late 2014, continued to add value after 2014 (even after I had already overachieved) and the value of BTC had gone up 78x since late 2015 - but then we are stabilized at a BTC value that continues to be around 40x (given $10k as an approximate current price) and 26x (if we consider $6,600 as our current approximate 200 week moving average - which would be the theoretical extreme bottom).

The punchline continues to be that systematic attempts to profit from volatility remain as a kind of insurance (mostly psychological and a wee bit financial) more than any kind of meaningful way to stack sats or to profit in BTC overall, and the best ways to continue to stack sats and to accumulate BTC value is mostly by periodically injecting value, whether calling it DCA or calling it buying the dip or calling it something else.  And, by the way, for anyone looking for a dip, when you get anything over 10%, you are likely witnessing a significant and meaningful buying dip, and maybe you do not want to blow all of your buying wadd (or dry powder) on a 10% dip, and in this circumstance, so far, we have seen about 18% dip from $12,061 down to $9,902, which should be more than reasonable to pull the BTC buy trigger for anyone buying the dip, and sure you can keep some more value available, just in case to buy if there were more of a dip, but such additional dip may or may not happen this time around.  

Ps.  I see that we are getting a pretty BIG bounce off of this latest dip:  Observing $10,457 as I type this Ps, but I am not going to proclaim that the bottom is "in" because I believe that it is too early to confidently make those kinds of assertions.

[SwayStar123]

I shall go to the himalayas to atone for my sins now

[ivomm]

Actually, I think the rusty pipe idea is good especially for trolls. Just give it without comment. They will be puzzled what is the meaning, but WO gang knows

Exhibit A:

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

May be for the last time we will see a test on $10k?

I've got a bad feeling we're going to briefly dip back into 4 digit territory today. I sincerely hope I'm wrong. Not liking the signs from that recent big red candle...

EDIT: Seeing shorts getting liquidated and large market buys, so maybe we are going up today. Too lazy to screencap Twitter right now.

I too have a feeling that we may see another 4 digit and like you I too sincerely hope that we do not go to that route. Observing now @ $10,390 so we can hope a quick recovery.

[JSRAW]

End of the WO thread if JJG can't find any post to reply, instead updating his own reply.....

[strawbs]

Wow, what a lot of silliness.

Complaining about the merit giving process on an obscure¹ corner of the interweb? I mean, merits are all good and fun and everything, but the day you start to give a flying fuck about approval from strangers² on the internet, is the day you need to go and slap yourself harshly with a wet fish.

And if you don't like a particular obscure³ corner of the interweb, go hang somewhere else. It's a big place.

I hardly ever go to any other part of the forum, only the WO really. I don't post too much here either, hence a low post to years active ratio. But that's fine. After many years, the characters become familiar. It's also a good place to pick up info sometimes.

And it has haikus.

¹no offence meant here
²no offence meant here either
³no offence meant here

In all their beautiful forms

Much love
#nohomo
#haikulove
#WOlove

And in the spirit of not giving a fuck about merits, I'll give my remaining 20 smerits to the best haiku (in my humble opinion) posted this coming Sunday.

# need more haikus

[JSRAW]

@Bob FPS players are gamer in your opinion?  if yes then I do have more than 15k hours of experience in TF2, COD and CS... to add some bonus  i worked in all 3 games..

FPS players are definitely gamers. Some of the most hardcore.

I'm entirely burnt out on the FPS genre... for... (ASSERT THROWN: OPSEC VIOLATION). Mostly enjoy playing ARPG's now.

LIkewise ( minus RPG) when i left Valve.

Watch out if you are into DOTA, its addictive af.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

End of the WO thread if JJG can't find any post to reply, instead updating his own reply.....

I have no clue what am I doing here. Lost track. May be I will need one of your JS exclusive summary LOL

[Last of the V8s]

It's also a good place to pick up info sometimes.

you do know he's a married man?

[nullius]

Here is my latest Price Orientation Oscillation Prediction analysis. I hope some find it helpful. Consistent with the mathematical trend of the last ~3 years, this looks like another great price point to strongly short with high leverage. I have confirmed this analysis with the strongest science available so far.

Your argument could be stronger if you didn’t wreathe what’s at best educated guesswork in grand pronouncements about “the strongest science”.  Such rhetoric is a scientifically accurate indicator of quackery.

Furthermore, playing devil’s advocate, even if your predictions were correct, “to strongly short with high leverage” is a most excellent means to be wiped out on grounds that “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”.  Plenty of speculators have lost their shirts with highly leveraged shorts on fundamentally worthless shitcoins.  Which Bitcoin is not.

This goes far beyond a bearish SELL pronouncement.  Too-emphatically urging, with claims of “the strongest science”, that people should jump into a position of potential losses limited only by the amount that they can put up for margin calls—cui bono?

[Toxic2040]

It's also a good place to pick up info sometimes.

you do know he's a married man?

this doesnt make him less of a slut..i hear he is a cheap date as well..  get a few in em and your bound to score

[goldkingcoiner]

It's also a good place to pick up info sometimes.

you do know he's a married man?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgwlJIo0In0

[nullius]

I shall go to the himalayas to atone for my sins now

Protip:  Forget the moralizing histrionics about virtue and sin, focus on some subject other than whether WO is an “extremely toxic community” or you need a stint of navel-gazing, and do something that provides value to yourself and/or others.

(This is me being helpful.  Shrug.)

[d_eddie]

Code:

SMerits Balance=Received Merits/2-Sent Merits

[nitpick]
Should be

Code:

SMeritsBalance = floor(ReceivedMerits / 2) - SentMerits + floor( (Oldmerits % 2 + ReceivedMerits % 2) / 2)

The last term is to account for even/odd number of merits.
[/nitpick]

[SwayStar123]

I shall go to the himalayas to atone for my sins now

Protip:  Forget the moralizing histrionics about virtue and sin, focus on some subject other than whether WO is an “extremely toxic community” or you need a stint of navel-gazing, and do something that provides value to yourself and/or others.

(This is me being helpful.  Shrug.)

I will try to interact on this thread as nicely as i can to see whether or not that statement was true, as the toxicity i claim came from 2 main sources

1. The response to my first posts here
2. The fact that a long time member went as far to delete every single post he had on here because IIRC some needle broke the camels back

[BobLawblaw]

Watch out if you are into DOTA, its addictive af.

I played the crap out of DOTA 2 for a long while. Venomancer was my favorite guy to play. Ultimately, it was the length of time for some of the games to play out, that turned me off of it. Games sometimes lasting up to an hour was becoming tedious. Same reason I quit playing WoW; too much time to devote to high end play with raids and whatnot.

Tried playing Artifact, but it was an unmitigated trainwreck on release, and tossed it aside. Was big into Hearthstone for a while, before becoming bored with it as well. Have since nuked my entire Blizzard account over the Hong Kong Hearthstone tourney debacle.

Mostly into games where I can play in 15-30 minute chunks at times, if need-be.

[bitmover]

Wall Observer Meta Post!

I will do one more WO Meta post as well.

I just updated WO merit race with the last data from today. You can see the same data fillippone used, (thanks to LoyceV) but in a different format. I also added avatars.

You can see it in my personal domain:

https://bitcoindata.science/wall-observer-merit-race.html


To see your hat in the animation, the hat needs to be a .png file (because I generated all hats image addresses using an algorithm username.png, cause 90% of avatars are png files)

[Hueristic]

back to earth?  ~> $3500 reeeeee\\\\\\

Once more for the people in the back...bitcoin cannot sustain prices greater than $10k. It's nothing more than a fantasy. Proven by science and maths.

Nice, the bulls are showing up!