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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26388923 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
sirazimuth
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born once atheist


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October 02, 2020, 04:34:46 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

..... how many joints in a lid?

Quote from: Cheech and Chong “Lets Make a Dope Deal”

“One.......I roll big joints man.....”

“AND THE JUDGES SAY THATS OKAY, THEY ROLL BIG JOINTS TOO!!!”
Toxic2040
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October 02, 2020, 04:43:10 PM

the morning wall report

#dyor

as kitteh walks on a fence
1h




much resistance to claw back thru with clouds hovering close overhead
4h

#stronghands
JayJuanGee
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October 02, 2020, 04:52:44 PM
Last edit: October 02, 2020, 05:42:01 PM by JayJuanGee

Just throwing it out there that maybe Trump + wife don’t have covid & it’s a tactical play to help him win the election. Just an idea, either way he’ll be fine because he isn’t 80+ with moderate to severe pre-existing health conditions.

The timing is odd. Trump did say he was taking Hydroxy so he might just be taking over the news cycle so he can claim that he recovered fast w no symptoms due to Hydroxy.

Most likely he is completely fine and doesn't die of covid unless he is hit by a bus. That would be a coronasniffle death of course.

Im just glad he did have something actually dangerous happen to him like a snake bite.  Cheesy

And, I am glad that you, lambie bambie, were able to take the dick of the red-headed twat out of your mouth long enough in order that you could make your so eloquently-stated post (surely, we needed to receive such important information from uie pooie).


Serious question. In the (1 out of 10,000 chance) event that Trump dies, will Pence be forced to nuke China for taking out our Commander in Chief?

Or perhaps Trump could have caught Corona on purpose after doing so badly in the debate. His plan would be to go into a bunker, fight a nuclear war with China, then declare a never ending state of emergency and crowning himself President for Life for the surviving population.


Odds of death would probably be closer to 1/50, maybe even quite a bit greater than that for someone who is in such age group.. maybe even other underlying health factors that might not be being disclosed, also.

On the other hand, if we assume he gets the best of treatment (not blood letting because we are in "modern times"), maybe the odds would lower to something in the 1/100 to 1/200 arena... but 1/10,000 odds seems way too low.

Regarding your second question, of course, you are not serious... should not be treating trolls as if serious, even on the face of the question it could hardly be serious.





Learn to read and learn to count. There was only one question, not two, you retarded trollbot.  Wink 1 out of 10k chance of dying of the sniffles was actually generous, its likely lower.

Who is the retard?  

Of course, lambie bambie.. who elsie?

Just for clarification for your lil brain (to the extent that one exists?)

Question 1:  likelihood that your red headed buddy will not survive a positive covid result in the coming months

Question 2:  consequences of such non-survival, were such non-survival to occur.

I spot my lil selfie a retard, and it is not yours truly.   Tongue Tongue Tongue
vapourminer
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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October 02, 2020, 04:58:26 PM
Merited by sirazimuth (1), VB1001 (1)

..... how many joints in a lid?

Quote from: Cheech and Chong “Lets Make a Dope Deal”

“One.......I roll big joints man.....”

“AND THE JUDGES SAY THATS OKAY, THEY ROLL BIG JOINTS TOO!!!”

correct!

come to think of it, the answer always seems to be one no matter what the amount of weed. hmmm probably time to test those bed sheet size papers now. be back (probably much) later.
JayJuanGee
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October 02, 2020, 05:11:03 PM

he he

Now, that planB scheme is being widely criticized as unrealistic or even unscientific, the crowd will tend to become much less wild in anticipation...and then btc would outperform.
If everybody are sitting counting their imaginary funds at $100K or above by Dec 2021, it would NOT do it.

If you mean with everybody, the atm 1% or less involved in BTC from current population, then yes we wouldn't get their.... But I see more and more growing intrest... If the model of planB will not work out exactly as he says is probably 100% accurate. But how he sees things, compare things and write them down, thats exactly what people need to see, to understand what BTC is compared with already existing assets and just the S2F talk is something that opens eyes imo.... Of-course BTC probably will not ride the model exactly, still doesn't take away that his point of view is a nice approach and good speculation...

Just to be a bit more clear dude, you likely realize that one of the assumptions underlying PlanB's model is a kind of steadiness in the demand curve aspect of the supply/demand curve.  Since future demand for BTC is NOT really known, PlanB's model assumes demand as a kind of constant... .and PlanB's model is criticized for such holding of demand constant.

Sure, I will concede that "holding of demand constant" is likely a somewhat valid criticism of the stock to flow model because it is actually true that we cannot really know future demand of BTC with any kind of precision.. but still, at the same time, there is a certain level of doing the best with the information that you have, but surely if something BIG happens with demand (in either direction), then such stock to flow model could be shown to having had presumed too much and based on incomplete information.. which surely future demand of BTC is not really any kind of thing to treat lightly, either... but how the fuck are we going to be able to estimate future demand with any kind of precision?

Therefore, in my humble bumble thinking, it does seem to me that Stock to Flow does take a largely reasonable approach to future BTC demand by merely holding such future demand as a constant, and personally I believe that both the: 1) four-year fractal model and also 2) the s-curve exponential adoption model based on networking and Metcalfe principles are good complementary supplement price prediction models to the stock to flow model in order to attempt to probabilistically account for the potential deficiency of the "constant demand" presumption that is embedded within such stock to flow model.
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October 02, 2020, 05:28:06 PM
Merited by 600watt (1)

4 year shift

16x price shift

Biodom
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October 02, 2020, 05:32:51 PM

Bitcoiners will be able to see what transpires in 14 13 mo, and if btc is below 55K (the lowest prediction value), then the model is invalidated and there are no other models with any predictive value whatsoever.

I like the fact that, finally, S2F is being harshly criticized because, in my mind, it is making the predictive values more likely to be achieved, paradoxically.

Toxic2040
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October 02, 2020, 05:38:38 PM

..... how many joints in a lid?

Quote from: Cheech and Chong “Lets Make a Dope Deal”

“One.......I roll big joints man.....”

“AND THE JUDGES SAY THATS OKAY, THEY ROLL BIG JOINTS TOO!!!”

correct!

come to think of it, the answer always seems to be one no matter what the amount of weed. hmmm probably time to test those bed sheet size papers now. be back (probably much) later.

+1 WOsMerit




I get about 25 or so on average. Depends on whats happening and potency to some extent.
I am not sure how many even remember what a lid is or how much it is.

Carry on.
JayJuanGee
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October 02, 2020, 05:38:45 PM
Last edit: October 02, 2020, 06:21:09 PM by JayJuanGee

EU is going full steam digital €

[etc... etc.... edited out for space-saving purposes..... ]

You are seeming to transition into a behemoth analyzer status, 600w...  Shocked Shocked

satoshi? Is that you?    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Thanks for your ongoing in-depth presentations regarding current underlying bitcoin-related dynamics.  Kiss #nohomo

Interesting to wake up this morning to news like that. Guess even the Presidential "Bubble" didn't keep it out.

Now we get to see what happens when reality invades this little bubble. Good chance he will be fine. Possible chance very sick. Small chance he will be in a coma or ventilator. Which will make for some interesting decisions.

Hm.

Yep.

Even early in the year, while he was telling the populous that the virus was "not a problem" blah blah blah, he was getting tested on a very regular basis, and anyone who was exposed to him was getting tested on a regular basis.

But, like you suggested, lightfoot, the virus does not give two ratt's asses whether you are taking half-assed measures... a bubble, like you said, but NOT anything close to enough of a solid bubble.

They always talk about an "October surprise" during an election year.

Trump gets diagnosed with Covid-19 right on October 1st.

His self-quarantine will last 14 days, and end exactly on the day before his next debate with Biden.

What an utterly...amazing...coincidence.  The odds. Roll Eyes

It could be God himself is writing this story.

Torque does not believe in such god theory(ies), unless god happens to be some kind of a manipulator, who is screwing with various matters just to irk Torque-ie porkie.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Febo
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October 02, 2020, 06:03:02 PM

Last few days maybe not looks that good but last quarter was totally fine. 17% growth. Considering Q3 is traditionally bad.

JayJuanGee
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October 02, 2020, 06:12:46 PM
Last edit: October 02, 2020, 06:42:27 PM by JayJuanGee

https://nypost.com/2020/10/02/chinese-state-media-outlet-mocks-trump-for-contracting-coronavirus/?utm_medium=SocialFlow&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=NYPTwitter

CCP asking for it. I bet Trump does something to really piss them off like officially recognizing Taiwan as a country.

A little global uncertainty will be good for King Bitcoin.

I doubt that it is in anyone's interest (especially BTC HODLers) to really be asking for more societal drama in order for king daddy bitcoin to prosper..

Bitcoin would likely be much better served by fewer Armageddon-wannabe scenarios.

Bitcoiners will be able to see what transpires in 14 13 mo, and if btc is below 55K (the lowest prediction value), then the model is invalidated and there are no other models with any predictive value whatsoever.

I like the fact that, finally, S2F is being harshly criticized because, in my mind, it is making the predictive values more likely to be achieved, paradoxically.

That seems to be a bit of a strange claim about the model being supposedly broken if the BTC price is below $55k by the end of next year...

We will see, Biodom, but your claim seems to be a bit strong and wishful on your behalf, Biodom.. I mean in terms of you wanting to proclaim that the model is either worth very little or not worth anything.. and it is as if you are just rooting on an ongoing basis that the model is not true... ...

for what reason, it is difficult to know for sure..

Seems to me that you are just overly bothered by the model and you are ongoingly trying to figure out ways to discount the model and suggest that it adds little to no value to our thinking about BTC price dynamics, no?

Also, it seems to me that BTC prices could be manipulated down for 13-14 months or even extending 2 years from now or longer .. in order to cause the stock to flow model to appear to be broken.. and so what would that ongoing and persistent manipulation accomplish exactly, if it were to happen?  

Seems to me that such ongoing downward manipulation could cause an explosive BTC price move later on down the road, or maybe such ongoing downward manipulation would cause a shifting of the trendline of the model to get pushed downward within the model.. so I am not clear why you believe that such need to potentially tweak the model would necessarily cause the model to be broken or invalid.. because the model is likely NOT guaranteeing as much as you seem to be wanting to argue that such model guarantees.
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I fix broken miners. And make holes in teeth :-)


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October 02, 2020, 06:29:53 PM

Meantime....


Last of the V8s
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Be a bank


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October 02, 2020, 06:51:13 PM

Trump weighs 17 stone? What a lard-ass. Definitely going down.
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October 02, 2020, 08:21:39 PM

the noon wall report at 1:22pm


Heaving to sir..second battens in main and mizzen. Storm jib is set. Steady as she goes.


#dyor

1h



4h

#stronghands
nullius
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October 02, 2020, 08:30:36 PM

Meantime....


Are you seriously glorifying the guillotine as “Justice”?  Never mind that all three panels are nonsensical idiot-bait propaganda:  That takes the cake, so to speak.  What’s next?  Glorifying the justice of the Soviet dekulakization?

Something on the order of a million people were gruesomely massacred in the French Revolution, for no reason but a hellishly depraved sense of “justice” and égalité.  Mob rule plus “liberal” ideologues equals bloodbath—always.

Either you are completely ignorant of history, or you are a wannabe bloody murderer, or both.  Pick your poison.



Trump weighs 17 stone? What a lard-ass. Definitely going down.

What do you expect?  He is American, and therefore fat.  “#MAGA”, LOL.
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It's all mathematics...!


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October 02, 2020, 08:41:58 PM

Where dem dang Bargain boyz at...?
USA up dat crap creek witout da paddles
Printin trillions n dat chubby guy got a snake bite!
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October 02, 2020, 09:13:04 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Trump weighs 17 stone? What a lard-ass. Definitely going down.

... yes I would say he is much higher risk of succumbing to the chinese bioweapon than Boris was, 1 in 37 of 74yo who catch it die
... Trump is overweight, highly-stressed but has best healthcare.
... his symptoms worsened rapidly now so he's had it for a few days already https://www.zerohedge.com/political/president-trump-has-covid-19-here-what-happens-next
...CIA wants him gone now that russiagate frame-up investigation is pointing back at G Haspel, Hicks is the honey in the field
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October 02, 2020, 09:59:25 PM



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October 02, 2020, 10:15:46 PM

https://nypost.com/2020/10/02/chinese-state-media-outlet-mocks-trump-for-contracting-coronavirus/?utm_medium=SocialFlow&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=NYPTwitter

CCP asking for it. I bet Trump does something to really piss them off like officially recognizing Taiwan as a country.

A little global uncertainty will be good for King Bitcoin.

I doubt that it is in anyone's interest (especially BTC HODLers) to really be asking for more societal drama in order for king daddy bitcoin to prosper..

Bitcoin would likely be much better served by fewer Armageddon-wannabe scenarios.

Bitcoiners will be able to see what transpires in 14 13 mo, and if btc is below 55K (the lowest prediction value), then the model is invalidated and there are no other models with any predictive value whatsoever.

I like the fact that, finally, S2F is being harshly criticized because, in my mind, it is making the predictive values more likely to be achieved, paradoxically.

That seems to be a bit of a strange claim about the model being supposedly broken if the BTC price is below $55k by the end of next year...

We will see, Biodom, but your claim seems to be a bit strong and wishful on your behalf, Biodom.. I mean in terms of you wanting to proclaim that the model is either worth very little or not worth anything.. and it is as if you are just rooting on an ongoing basis that the model is not true... ...

for what reason, it is difficult to know for sure..

Seems to me that you are just overly bothered by the model and you are ongoingly trying to figure out ways to discount the model and suggest that it adds little to no value to our thinking about BTC price dynamics, no?

Also, it seems to me that BTC prices could be manipulated down for 13-14 months or even extending 2 years from now or longer .. in order to cause the stock to flow model to appear to be broken.. and so what would that ongoing and persistent manipulation accomplish exactly, if it were to happen?  

Seems to me that such ongoing downward manipulation could cause an explosive BTC price move later on down the road, or maybe such ongoing downward manipulation would cause a shifting of the trendline of the model to get pushed downward within the model.. so I am not clear why you believe that such need to potentially tweak the model would necessarily cause the model to be broken or invalid.. because the model is likely NOT guaranteeing as much as you seem to be wanting to argue that such model guarantees.

It is not what "I claim", it is what the model's author (planB) have said repeatedly.
I see no point to cling to this model either (if it would be falsified).
Time (Dec 2021) will tell...at least with regards to the original and the followup S2F model(s).
S2FX model (the most recent one) does not have any time variable and could be ascertained only after a considerable time period, looking backwards.
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October 02, 2020, 11:03:44 PM
Merited by Arriemoller (1)

Whilst working on something else, I will just leave this here for now...

Most people don’t know the origins of Antifa.  Antifascist Action (Antifaschistische Aktion), or “Antifa”, was originally founded in 1932 as a merger of the private armies/militias of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands, SPD in the below photo), a “liberal” Marxist-socialist party—and the German Communist Party (Kommunistische Partei Deutschlands, KPD).



The current version of the original Antifa logo, seen above:



The banner in the centre reads:  “ES LEBE DIE ROTE EINHEITSFRONT”.  In idiomatic English, I think that that slogan should be rendered:  “THE UNITED RED FRONT LIVES!”

The banners on the left and right read respectively:  “As the SPD [Social Democrats]” and “As the KPD [Communists]”.

The hammer-and-sickle flags need no explanation. ☭

So, yes:  Antifa are Communists.  It’s not merely my opinion that they are Communists; it’s not that they are like Communists, or maybe crypto-Communists:  The group originated as a merger of a self-described overt Communist group and a liberal-Marxist-socialist group, under the International Communist Red Flag.

N.b. that I knew the above-stated history before the pomo-Jacobins started bragging about it.  I’m not getting the history from them (or their twisted version thereof).  I have know the history for a long time.  I found the photo floating around the web somewhere awhile ago, and I have been trying properly to identify and to source it.
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