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Question: Highest price we'll see in 2022:
50,000 - 10 (14.5%)
60,000 - 3 (4.3%)
70,000 - 4 (5.8%)
80,000 - 6 (8.7%)
90,000 - 3 (4.3%)
100,000 - 4 (5.8%)
125,000 - 12 (17.4%)
150,000 - 5 (7.2%)
175,000 - 2 (2.9%)
200,000 - 2 (2.9%)
225,000 - 5 (7.2%)
250,000 - 4 (5.8%)
275,000 - 1 (1.4%)
300,000 - 0 (0%)
>300,000 - 8 (11.6%)
Total Voters: 69

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25531865 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (158 posts by 14 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Torque
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September 04, 2020, 09:15:49 PM

we will climb back to $11k soonish. and then it is decision time. we will either go through this barrier and all is good or we will get rejected. if we get rejected we will see 9k and in worst case 8k, but that is the very bearish case. I want to accumulate more, that is why I am even considering those scenarios..

Worst case $8k? Have you even confirmed your math and science facts? We will be hitting $3k again for certain. Everyone's confirmed it.

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September 04, 2020, 09:21:15 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I actually welcome Proudhon's bearish posts, especially when they mention shorting her with the highest available leverage. By the time I've fed them into my SOMA engine and digested the convoluted, obscure and esoteric results, she steps up a notch. Thank you, llama of doom!  Cool
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September 04, 2020, 09:44:22 PM
Last edit: September 04, 2020, 09:56:34 PM by goldkingcoiner




Edit: If thats her singing in the proudhon song: holy shit her voice is nice. I actually enjoy listening to the song multiple times. Grin
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September 04, 2020, 10:04:39 PM

I shall go to the himalayas to atone for my sins now

Quote from: "Hancock's Half Hour"   BBC Radio comedy
I shall journey to the Himalayas!... Find a lonely peak!... A blunt one, and sit on it...
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September 04, 2020, 10:09:34 PM

Soooo...  Any insights on if/when/how we are getting decoupled from stocks, and (I hope) coupled to precious metals?
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September 04, 2020, 10:22:18 PM

JayJuanGee
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September 04, 2020, 11:22:23 PM
Last edit: September 05, 2020, 12:29:32 AM by JayJuanGee
Merited by bitserve (1), nullius (1)

I ONLY visit the WO thread on bitcointalk.org. I always have a tab open on WO thread. If they delete WO thread, they delete bitcointalk.org for me. WO members are the real bitcoiners. No fake shit and bullshit like on reddit and twitter. I don't read this WO thread to post for some merit, otherwise I could have been Legendary a long time ago. Been on this site since 2011, only registered in 2013. Who gives a fuck about merit when you have bitcoin.

If nobody gives a fuck about merit they would have had no problems with disabling merit on this thread  Roll Eyes

SwayStar123, I read your thread about WO and about your frustration with posting your TA here.

I can't speak for the others, but if your TA is truly backed by something other than wild ass guess then personally I would welcome it here. Perhaps in the past if you were posting bearish TA out of the blue, then it might have been taken as a bit of trolling. A non-biased, no agenda look at TA would likely be most welcome.

Also, many people that hang out on the WO thread are unapologetically pro-BitcoinTM, many OGs and maximalists here. So if you are not in line with that, tread lightly.


If you recall, diptwat SwayStar123 was trying to proclaim that he was such a smartie BTC trader that he could turn .05 BTC into 1 BTC, and he made similar kinds of nonsense proclamations in this thread (largely attempting to ascribe himself BTC price soothsayer status) at the same time that he created his other thread (February/March of this year), causing him to get a considerable amount of backlash in this thread and in his other thread, because he was overpromising, underdelivering and not even coming close to achieving his BTC price prediction goals or acknowledging the various fallacies of his ways that had considerably good chances to mislead others.. furthermore not even acknowledging that he had pretty much lost all of his money in a pretty short time.  

Lots of regular peeps can get hurt from those kinds of false proclamations regarding the power of trading and advocating the use of margin trading, etc.

Sure, many of us have short memories, and we cannot always remember the nonsensical, scammy, shilling and/or misleading posts of other members, so I am not really blaming members for trying to give some benefit of the doubt to SwayStar123, even though he is coming off as a bit butt hurt.  

At least, I can give SwayStar123 some kudos for locking and closing the stupid-ass, seemingly attention-seeking shit-stirring thread that he had created (after 6 pages), probably NOT only because of nutildah's post, but for the likely realization coming from several of the posts within that thread showing that there was hardly any scintilla of merit to the bullshit claims that he was making, besides showing himself as a grudge holder, whiner and/or attention whore  - maybe another way of characterizing his behavior as a bit trollish.

have also demonstrated a willingness to be reasonable

The man who is right does not command respect, but the one who admits he is wrong

Edit: acknowledging a kind of subjective nature of merit distribution in that sometimes there can be such a thing as "reasonable trolls".... Go figure.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Edit 2:
[edited out]

Ironically i have gained more merit by bashing this thread than by participating in it, but I can admit i was wrong now

This guy is totally reasonable.

Who would have thunk?




Edit 3:
@SwayStar123
I think you should deserve to be merited these days because you were able to let us forget about the big picture here. You were able to let us forget the recent small dump and make sure that our respectable fellow WO people went on commenting your threads (and merit you).
I wonder where is JJG when you need him most.
 Grin

Apparently I was sleeping through the whole thing.
\
\




Better late than never, though, no?   Cry Cry Cry

Edit 4:
Perusing WO in search for news, I discovered the obscene spectacle of a self-entitled brat first demanding that the forum’s most popular thread be censored and memory-holed as “extremely toxic”—viz., he dislikes it—and then accumulating a pile of merits by whining about merits. [edited out the "wordy" parts   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Oh my!!!! Looks like nullius beat me to it, too.   Wink  I must have been detained in some kind of hibernation mode, or was it nullius who had been rattled from his own hibernation?
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September 04, 2020, 11:30:14 PM

^ Nice catch JJG. I didn't remember him either. Now I do.

Nothing more to add here. Go Bitcoin Go!
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September 04, 2020, 11:46:34 PM

Route to $13,000 by the end of the month?

Wink

I AM LOOKING FOR 13333!
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September 05, 2020, 12:00:01 AM
Last edit: September 05, 2020, 12:11:31 AM by sirazimuth

Whenever I refer to a random poster on this forum I use the the pronoun "they" rather than he or she.
(And yes "they" is grammatically correct for referring to the singular, or so I've heard.)
And not because of all this politically correct gender pronoun nonsense, but simply because  I dont automatically assume
the gender as being a "he" (albeit on this forum, that's usually the case).
I only mention this because in all this swaystar hullabaloo, (apparently triggered by a post of mine)
I was actually suspecting this sway character could be a she. (or not)

Just sayin...
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September 05, 2020, 12:17:26 AM

Whenever I refer to a random poster on this forum I use the the pronoun "they" rather than he or she.
(And yes "they" is grammatically correct for referring to the singular, or so I've heard.)
And not because of all this politically correct gender pronoun nonsense, but simply because  I dont automatically assume
the gender as being a "he" (albeit on this forum, that's usually the case).
I only mention this because in all this swaystar hullabaloo, (apparently triggered by a post of mine)
I was actually suspecting this sway character could be a she. (or not)

back in the day, as in way back in the day, when i learned english (in two different english speaking countries) i thought i learned that when a singular person of unknown sex was referred to "he" could refer to either sex.

however *main memory checksum error* so..
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September 05, 2020, 12:19:27 AM

Route to $13,000 by the end of the month?

Wink
If i am being honest then i am Happy with around 15k EOY..

Portofolio goes down significantly every time even if we gets small correction, TBH it hurts when looking at blockfolio but its part of the deal so i don't mind. Am in for long haul anyway so i don't give any damn. Doing DCA religiously and as of now its working out pretty well for me. I might get panic if we go below 3k mark which is very unlikely.

Of course, if you have been attempting to carry out any kind of meaningful DCA'ing into BTC in the past 3 years, your BTC portfolio should be looking pretty good, even if you have screwed up a few times along the way, here and there.

This linked example shows $50 per week for the past 3 years, with 70% profits in BTC as compared with Gold and DJI only at 41% and 12%, respectively.

Of course, if you double the time period of DCA'ing into BTC to 6 years, a hypothetical DCA'ing investment will look even better with nearly 12x profits in BTC, and only 50% and 33% in Gold and DJI respectively.
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September 05, 2020, 12:48:11 AM

End of the WO thread if JJG can't find any post to reply, instead updating his own reply.....

O.k.  I admit it.

You caught me without my pants. Sucks to be me.

 Embarrassed



 Embarrassed
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September 05, 2020, 12:53:17 AM
Merited by JimboToronto (1)

(And yes "they" is grammatically correct for referring to the singular, or so I've heard.)

No, it is not correct—outside the fantasies of the Newspeak Dictionary, Tenth Edition (or is it the Eleventh now?).

I don’t want to feed more off-topic drama, much less engage in a “pronouns” flamewar at this particular moment.  This is just one of those issues where bad information stands, unless somebody contradicts it.  I will do so, for the promotion of singular “they” is a part of the linguistic degeneration that has rendered most of the Internet not only illiterate, but illegible; and it is politically motivated, however much you may disclaim “political correctness”.

I don’t want to come off as lecturing you about language usage.  I just ask you to please not lecture others on it—especially not to declare peremptorily correct a contentious usage that is widely abhorred.

I was actually suspecting this sway character could be a she. (or not)

Perhaps.  What of it?

I have engaged in similar speculations about others, but never corrected the pronouns applied to people who choose to keep this one binary bit of identifying information private.  On a forum that respects privacy and anonymity, I suggest that it is generally appropriate to avoid prying, unless you are friendly enough with a person to ask in private.  Simply pick whatever pronoun seems best to fit the available evidence, and stick to it unless contrary evidence arises.

(I have corrected others who decided to refer to me as a hipster default “she”.)



back in the day, as in way back in the day, when i learned english (in two different english speaking countries)

Back in the day—when people spoke English, in contradistinction to the bastardized postmodern cant used by degenerate anthropoids with pickled brains.

i thought i learned that when a singular person of unknown sex was referred to "he" could refer to either sex.

Yes.

Edit/P.S.:  “Back in the day”, women customarily signed their letters with a parenthesized title so that others would know whether to apply “Mrs.” or “Miss”.  E.g., “Sincerely, Alice Smith (Mrs.)”.  Just sayin’...
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September 05, 2020, 01:11:08 AM

End of the WO thread if JJG can't find any post to reply, instead updating his own reply.....

[terse post with picture]

End of the economy if JJG ran out of words!  Depression!  Collapse!  DOOMSDAY!

Embarrassed
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September 05, 2020, 01:11:11 AM
Merited by nutildah (1)

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September 05, 2020, 01:31:10 AM

back in the day, as in way back in the day, when i learned english (in two different english speaking countries) i thought i learned that when a singular person of unknown sex was referred to "he" could refer to either sex.

however *main memory checksum error* so..

You must be older than me... When I was ESLing I was told to use "he or she" but apparently it's deprecated too now. Which TBH is fine with me. Never made much sense anyway, e.g. why not "she or he"? "They" is shorter and more convenient and anyone bitching about plural shalt read some Shakespeare.
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September 05, 2020, 01:39:56 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), nullius (2)

the laggards are chasing profits that don’t exist now.

A perverse kind of FOMO?

Anyhow, I remain quite biased in my preference for UP rather than DOWN... because even if I might be able to stack a few sats on the way down, it continues to be minuscule amounts of stacking as compared with how much of a benefit comes from purely straight UP.

I think that the bigger question is whether Bitcoin is really prepared for a black swan.  When fiat currencies and all of the other markets crash and burn, will people tend more to seek Bitcoin as a safehaven, or run away?  (To where!?  I don’t think that any traditional investments other than precious metals, and illiquid assets such as real estate, can hold value in such a scenario.)

Surely, you are asking a BIGGER question than what I was attempting to answer.

To a considerable degree, my whole approach in bitcoin has been built upon a presumption (or maybe even a hope) that ultimately BTC prices continue to go up in the long term, and we do not end up in some kind of downward spiral....

So sure one form of downward spiral would be going completely down to zero, and another forum of downward spiral would constitute BTC prices going so low that the investor (me in this case) does not have enough capital or time to continue to buy in such a way that his average cost per BTC ends up being less than the actual BTC price at the time that he (me in this case) would want to sell such BTC... therefore constituting a loss.

With so much passage of time, I really do not believe any of those two scenarios are probable, even though a kind of black swan event that you seem to be suggesting, nullius, would be some variation of such negative spiraling circumstances.


In April or thereabouts, I conjectured on WO that we may see extreme Bitcoin “prices” without gain in purchase power—not because of Bitcoin gaining, but the dollar (et al.) hemorrhaging value.  There is just no way that fiat currencies will not see extraordinary devaluation, given how much new currency has been created exactly at the moment of sharp decline in actual economic activity.  Official statistics on inflation are manipulated.  My “ground truth” is that I have seen sharp increases in the prices of elastic-demand goods within the past six months; but of course, whatever I see locally is a very limited view.  Has the recent $10–12k/BTC range simply reflected a decrease in the real-world purchase power of the dollar (as Bitcoin retained approximately the same value), or has it been caused by an increase in adoption, or has it been a speculative run?

Oh?  Now I see that you are describing such a black swan event as including the BTC prices going up, rather than down, and sure, I doubt that we really need to pinpoint exactly whether BTC prices are going up because BTC price is being appreciated and adopted more (normal supply and demand type price appreciations) or BTC prices are going up because fiat values are going down so much because of their irresponsible behaviors, inflation or whatever.

Sure, I agree with you that inflation is probably already noticeable, even if it might take longer for the Cantillon effect to play out in order to cause even more price inflation further down the line (further away from the money spigot).

By the way, a lot of us try NOT to get too much caught up on short term variability of BTC prices because even though matters sometimes can seem like they are moving quickly in bitcoin, there also seems to exist a kind of 4-year fractal pattern, too, so in that regard it could take 4 years or longer for some of the price waves in BTC to play out, so probably we cannot really know a whole hell-of-a-lot merely from witnessing some shorter-term correlations or even anti-correlations with fiat, gold, equities, properties or other assets.

Yeah, of course, there can be a lot of back and forth deviation from the price where bitcoin "ought to be" including there can be deviation with the stock to flow model, but in the end, the combination of various BTC price prediction models including the most convincing ones 1) stock to flow model, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe and networking principles are going to likely tell us a lot more about where bitcoin is going or likely to go rather than looking at whatever various kinds of manipulations are taking place in traditional fiat systems.


(Skin in the game:  Yes, for my part, I am still “all in”—and consistently with the foregoing, I don’t see anywhere else to go.  When I am bearish on fiat currencies, and I expect the stock market, etc. to look like 1929–32 if not worse, and precious metals are susceptible to seizure by governments unless some way can be found to buy them anonymously, what can I do but HODL?)

Sure, of course, having a healthy allocation to bitcoin seems to be a prudent approach in these times, and of course, individual circumstances are going to vary too.   If you have a lot of expenses in fiat, such as business, family and even other kinds of payments that you are due, then you may well want to make sure that you have a sufficient savings/holdings in fiat to cover those expenses and a 6 to 18 month cashflow projection may well be prudent because no one should want to be forced to sell BTC that is NOT of a time of their own choosing merely because they had over-allocated in BTC, yet on the other hand, if your income and cashflow comes in BTC, then you are in a different kind of dynamic in which you might be forced to cash out some BTC on a regular basis, too.  So sure, individual cashflow situations and expenses are going to vary in terms of what kinds of levels of allocation into BTC would be prudent for their particular circumstances.
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September 05, 2020, 02:45:53 AM
Last edit: September 05, 2020, 03:19:08 AM by JayJuanGee

we will climb back to $11k soonish. and then it is decision time. we will either go through this barrier and all is good or we will get rejected. if we get rejected we will see 9k and in worst case 8k, but that is the very bearish case. I want to accumulate more, that is why I am even considering those scenarios..

King daddy does not give any shits if you want to accumulate more**



King daddy does not give any shits about what you are considering**



 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


Of course, even dips down to $6,600 are possible - but which scenarios are likely, when we have been confirmed to be in a potential bull market since May 2019...

but hey, some peeps don't even believe that we have been in a bull market since May 2019 - even though such bull market had already been "confirmed"


Go figure.


**Even though king daddy does not care about your desires or your thoughts, I do care.  #nohomo.    Tongue Tongue Tongue

Addendum

Wow.  After I drafted the foregoing, I checked proudhon’s trust page.

I wonder how many people have lost money over this.  I hope that most people ignore him.

There are not too many who actually consider proudhon seriously... He is kind of a reverse indicator.  You heard his song from April 2013, haven't you..   The you tube video link has been updated posted here a few times already. ... eg.. bitserve's below post:

~

How about you post the research paper on why Bitcoin can't go above 10k? Don't forget the sources.

He’s too busy enjoying all the wealth that he has gained by the magic of “strongly short with high leverage”.

Proudhon have been confirming scientifically proven sources since 2011. So yeah, he surely is too busy enjoying his wealth most of the time... except when he briefly passes by from to time to enlighten us with his OG wisdom.

Confirmed.

I love that song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7TuFy0fcuw



Proudhon only shows up around the time that BTC prices are going to reverse, so perhaps humorous at best.

End of the WO thread if JJG can't find any post to reply, instead updating his own reply.....

[terse post with picture]

End of the economy if JJG ran out of words!  Depression!  Collapse!  DOOMSDAY!

Embarrassed

I will not proclaim to having any ability to live beyond the measurement of one being, similar to the rule against perpetuities, which remains an interesting concept...

In other words, at some point, hopefully not soon, the words of this particular being will have run their course.
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September 05, 2020, 03:28:47 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Thanks, Jay.  I learned from your reply, and picked up some new concepts to research.

Whilst I ponder that, I think that I should clarify a few points:

By the way, a lot of us try NOT to get too much caught up on short term variability of BTC prices

I must emphasize that apart from the pain of minimizing badly-timed expenditures, that is the perspective that informs my question!  When the bears are out in force, I usually ignore the market as much as I can.  Hereto, that has always worked out well:  “It’s down.  I don’t care.  It will be back up.”

If, however, the fundamentals of the market have changed—not Bitcoin’s own fundamentals, but the foundation of the whole economy—then I think it’s worthwhile to re-evaluate that stance in the context of the current situation.  Not from turning bearish on Bitcoin—to the contrary!  Panic and infectious negativity are bad; so is sticking one’s head in the sand.  Bitcoin has huge potential right now, but also faces dangers to which I should not blind myself.

I think that the current economic situation is unprecedented:  Never before have markets been so globally interdependent, and all based in total fiat currencies unbacked by anything whatsoever, and suddenly hit simultaneously, in numerous countries, with government policies that are tantamount to economic arson.  It is only rational to take a fresh look at what probable scenarios may come to pass, if the cycles and trends of the past eleven years wind up totally broken.

Oh?  Now I see that you are describing such a black swan event as including the BTC prices going up, rather than down, and sure, I doubt that we really need to pinpoint exactly whether BTC prices are going up because BTC price is being appreciated and adopted more (normal supply and demand type price appreciations) or BTC prices are going up because fiat values are going down so much because of their irresponsible behaviors, inflation or whatever.

Actually, I was eliciting a question mark:  Will we get an upward spiral, or a downward spiral?  I expect the upwards one.  Whereas I am admittedly biased, given that I am not only heavily invested in Bitcoin, but financially dependent on it.  In the absence of that crystal ball that so many people claim to have, I thought to ask around in WO, where the best regulars are much better informed about the markets than I am.

It seems that, at least at a first impression, you think I may not be wide of the mark in my expectation that fiat inflation should significantly drive up the dollars-to-bitcoins ratio due to the dollar’s fall, not Bitcoin’s rise—though of course, adoption can simultaneously push Bitcoin up further.  Well, I may have overshot when last I mentioned it in March; I hope so!

Sure, of course, having a healthy allocation to bitcoin seems to be a prudent approach in these times, and of course, individual circumstances are going to vary too.   If you have a lot of expenses in fiat, such as business, family and even other kinds of payments that you are due, then you may well want to make sure that you have a sufficient savings/holdings in fiat to cover those expenses and a 6 to 18 month cashflow projection may well be prudent because no one should want to be forced to sell BTC that is NOT of a time of their own choosing merely because they had over-allocated in BTC, yet on the other hand, if your income and cashflow comes in BTC, then you are in a different kind of dynamic in which you might be forced to cash out some BTC on a regular basis, too.  So sure, individual cashflow situations and expenses are going to vary in terms of what kinds of levels of allocation into BTC would be prudent for their particular circumstances.

Sound advice.  Speaking from hard experience.



End of the economy if JJG ran out of words!  Depression!  Collapse!  DOOMSDAY!

I will not proclaim to having any ability to live beyond the measurement of one being, similar to the rule against perpetuities, which remains an interesting concept...

In other words, at some point, hopefully not soon, the words of this particular being will have run their course.

And here I expected some technical analysis evaluating the stock-to-flow model of your words.  The rule against perpetuities is a more interesting take, however.  Do you suppose that in the absence thereof, you could will your distant descendants to continue producing your words in accord with your own present wishes?
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