Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

hope you all got in at 9960 and bought the dip!

9.8-ish we have seen overnight

Still $9,825 has been the lowest of the various BTC price dips below $10k in the past 6 days, and we have not quite gotten down to $9,800.  We have only been visiting these 4 digits in the past 6 days - which broke our streak above $10k that started on 7/26 and ended on 9/3. Of course, some folks are suggesting that the 5 digit streak is not broken until the daily candle closes below $10k...  Seems like a bit of an overblown technicality to me, but hey there are frequently ways to spin, even spinning the spin.

The latest dip below $10k was the most persistent and seemed to have been an attempt to get the daily candle to close below $10k, which was not successful. 

So, yeah there have been about 5 attempts that achieved getting below $10k, but so far have not been successful in staying below $10k for any kind of meaningful time - but that still does not mean that we are NOT going to go below $10k for a longer period of time.

I will be surprised if we are still ranging between $9k and $11k in the next couple of weeks and more so in a month, and even more surprised if that ranging were to play out for two months, given our current macro circumstances.  Up does seem slightly more likely than down.. maybe looking at 56.7/43.3 odds - but what do I know?  There surely are a lot of motivations for shaking a few trees of weak hands, and surely there are some folks who could be shooken.. especially if they are connected more broadly to some of the frothiness in the space... On the other hand, there are likely some shorts building, too, and could provide some incentive for them to get reckt, but will they?

[nullius]

Yep and the real key is gpu/shit coin mining.

here is some cost analysis for a miner.

[...]

I don’t think that this is relevant to Bitcoin’s market prospects.

The notion that Bitcoin is given its value by mining cost, or “backed by electricity”, etc. is a pernicious myth that needs to die.  It is the organic rise of Bitcoin’s value (based on supply and demand) that drives mining cost (and thus, Byzantine security) by increasing hashrate competition.  Not vice versa.

maybe looking at 56.7/43.3 odds

lolz, confirmed maths?  ;-)

Take those statistics out to eight decimal places if you want real science.


(Moved, to keep replies in order.)

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Everything I wrote before was just confirmed, by a guy that would know the Cabal (aka Wall Street) pretty well. The Bitcoin market might just be one of the last truly free markets on the planet.

https://twitter.com/tylerwinklevoss/status/1303421878888009728

I am a bit bothered by Tyler's use of the word "crypto" - even though i understand that it could be a camouflaging term.

Most of us active in this particular thread know that there would not be hardly any ability for the various shitcoins to flourish in their lil funzies without the underlying security that bitcoin provides the whole space..... Many of the shitcoins, defi and yield farming can proclaim that they are decentralized (when they are not) because they are operating under the ruse that bitcoin is secure in that decentralized sense.

Each of us must admit, the shitcoins are become quite creative in the way that they are taking (and making money) by one shitcoin copying the code of another shitcoin and one-upping them on which farm food they will employ as their mascot, and even official exchanges are listing such memecoins.  Has to have various affects on the space, including the purported wrapping of BTC... Give us your BTC, and we will wrap it in a piece of shit project and find out if your BTC is still alive after such wrappenings.  Cuyte, right?

I appreciate that you are tempted to be "creative" with your desires for non-liquidation of wealth, nullius, but please don't do that with your BTC nullius...  Your progeny NOT going to likey, likey.

[nullius]

I appreciate that you are tempted to be "creative" with your desires for non-liquidation of wealth, nullius, but please don't do that with your BTC nullius...  Your progeny NOT going to likey, likey.

Interesting way to get progeny against daddy’s wishes.
Well, Zeus was creative:  He knocked up Danaë by “wrappening” himself in the form of liquid wealth, which then entered her.
My implications, and the question of whether I have any, are
left as an exercise to the reader.

I am a bit bothered by Tyler's use of the word "crypto" - even though i understand that it could be a camouflaging term.

Confirmed etymologically correct pun.  (Crypto means ‘hidden’.)

[cAPSLOCK]

Fake news. The true news is bitcoin is crashing.

Proudhonk, you consider drastic bitcoin price movements as news to WO?
Interesting...

And so my ignore list is growing again.

It is SAD to ignore Proudhonk in my humble, confirmed, opinion.

[d_eddie]

For what's worth, I confirm cAPSLOCK's findings. Because science and hard data.

[OutOfMemory]

Fake news. The true news is bitcoin is crashing.

Proudhonk, you consider drastic bitcoin price movements as news to WO?
Interesting...

And so my ignore list is growing again.

It is SAD to ignore Proudhonk in my humble, confirmed, opinion.

I just didn't get out anything of his posts, even less of his "TA".
I click show/hide sometimes, so if there will be reason for unignore, i'll unignore.

EDIT: Oh yeah, and because of the troll factor (calling sub $1000 prices).

For what's worth, I confirm cAPSLOCK's findings. Because science and hard data.

Arr, you both got me for a moment
But this is WO, so i need at least 5 confirmations...

[Torque]

I am a bit bothered by Tyler's use of the word "crypto" - even though i understand that it could be a camouflaging term.

Most of us active in this particular thread know that there would not be hardly any ability for the various shitcoins to flourish in their lil funzies without the underlying security that bitcoin provides the whole space..... Many of the shitcoins, defi and yield farming can proclaim that they are decentralized (when they are not) because they are operating under the ruse that bitcoin is secure in that decentralized sense.

I agree, I'm bothered anytime anyone says "crypto" or the "whole crypto space" and also implies Bitcoin^TM. It's insulting to wrap up Bitcoin^TM in with all of the other crap.

That's like implying a company like Alphabet is even in the same league as all of the pink sheet penny scam companies, just because they are all considered "equities".

There is simply Bitcoin^TM, and then there is everything else....a steaming pile of crypto shitcoin scam crap, designed to part fools from their hard earned money.

The problem is that n00bs coming in to the "crypto space" cannot tell the difference, or are struggling to tell the difference.

[Biodom]

Cathleen's bike....kebab...kebab
continuation...lol (no shooting, though, which is nice).

https://twitter.com/i/status/1303421109597995010

[JayJuanGee]

No, I used many scientific math data points. It's too sophisticated to post all of the analysis, so I just post a helpful summary using the best summary of proven science and math confirmed by analysis.

we thank you for you thoughtfulness in sparing us from using our brain to think for ourselves.

in the future perhaps you could just post the single word "confirmed" or "science" instead of bigly images and all that stuff we wont understand anyway. we can infer the rest.

Here lil troll

Here lil troll


Have some foods.






 

[Paashaas]

We are at the disbelief stage, it was a suckers rally.

[cAPSLOCK]

big fight for 10k

The fight for 20k will be much bigger.

I dunno...   it certainly could be.  Or it could be like the last time we flirted with 1k.

[El duderino_]

The run to ATH has started

Continues

Math’s and science

Continuing

[Last of the V8s]

https://invity.io/

trezor opened a shitcoin exchange

[proudhon]

The run to ATH has started

Continues

Math’s and science

Continuing

Math and science prove bitcoin cannot ever have an ATH again. I did the calculations and have been studying the best Chinese and Russian sources, just as I did so many years ago.

[JayJuanGee]

maybe looking at 56.7/43.3 odds

lolz, confirmed maths?  ;-)

Take those statistics out to eight decimal places if you want real science.

Well, yeah. 

I was merely rounding to two digits in an attempt to ease any potential reader, and surely attempting to hedge the lack of precision in my estimate, too.

Concedingly, I am an amateur when it comes to my BTC price predictions, and I even surprised myself in my own level of bullishness in this particular estimation.  It is not frequently that anyone finds me even breaking above 53% or 54% in my willingness to assert BTC's short-term price direction.

I appreciate that you are tempted to be "creative" with your desires for non-liquidation of wealth, nullius, but please don't do that with your BTC nullius...  Your progeny NOT going to likey, likey.

Interesting way to get progeny against daddy’s wishes.
Well, Zeus was creative:  He knocked up Danaë by “wrappening” himself in the form of liquid wealth, which then entered her.
My implications, and the question of whether I have any, are
left as an exercise to the reader.

Again, i hope not to be judging anyone based on my own standards and/or achieved lifestyle or largely my having had reached my BTC accumulation and maintenance goals (sure it is a work in progress, but certain stages had been surpassed quite a while back), yet I would like to assert that I took my BTC accumulation and maintenance stage quite seriously while i was in the midst of them - especially the accumulation phase (but practicing ongoing maintenance is nothing to sneeze at either), so in my personal situation, engaging in liquidations and/or withdrawals still would likely leave way more BTC and wealth than my objectives in terms of excessiveness to heirs.

For sure, my personal goal is to spend my wealth (whether BTC or otherwise) down to some considerable degree that i would consider to be more fitting and smaller in size to pass down (if at all) - even though we hardly can know with any large degree of certainty regarding certain future events that could change some of the currently seeming existing dynamics.... including sudden death or something like that could befall any of us mere mortals at a time that is not of our own choosing or ability to predict.  We are left with only a variety of probable scenarios that we can attempt to work through - without, hopefully, necessarily locking ourselves in too much because of analysis paralysis.

I do believe that BTC accumulation and maintenance goals should be reached before entering into a phase that more greatly emphasizes liquidation goals, and surely I appreciate that some BTC accumulators, true believers might not even be able to appreciate the existence of liquidation goals in the event that they have not reached reasonable and sustainable BTC accumulation and/or maintenance goals.

I am a bit bothered by Tyler's use of the word "crypto" - even though i understand that it could be a camouflaging term.

Confirmed etymologically correct pun.  (Crypto means ‘hidden’.)

I am not sure if that explanation completely clears Tyler of his seeming shitcoinery - but it lends a bit of additional credence to his word choice.  I generally appreciative of the various efforts of the winkelvoss bros in this space.. at least, so far.  I am also appreciative of a lot of what Trace Mayer had done, too, but Trace seems to have completely disappeared from the scene after his being called out on shitcoinery - that also coincided with a BIG ass market (BTC, crypto, et al) in March, and sometimes we are going to wonder how individuals may have gotten through those kinds of BIG market move times, including if they might have made some BIG plays (bets) that end up screwing them up - and harder to recover when certain BIG plays(bets) are made at the wrong time and/or in the wrong direction.

[nullius]

I am a bit bothered by Tyler's use of the word "crypto" - even though i understand that it could be a camouflaging term.

I agree, I'm bothered anytime anyone says "crypto" or the "whole crypto space" and also implies Bitcoin^TM. It's insulting to wrap up Bitcoin^TM in with all of the other crap.

True, yes—but oh, it’s much worse than that.

I use strong crypto to secure my e-mail, to protect my Internet usage against spies, to authenticate my identity, and to prevent potential thieves from reading the hard disk of my laptop.

I remember the First Crypto Wars of the 90s.

I love crypto.  I have been using crypto since long before Bitcoin ever existed; indeed, it was my longtime interest in crypto that got me interested in Bitcoin, not vice versa.  Crypto is much bigger than Bitcoin:  Bitcoin is only one of the most interesting applications of crypto, the fulfillment of the dreams of those who remember the Digicash meltdown and all the cypherpunks talk about the future of money based on strong cryptography.

It grates on my sanity to see shitcoin scammers demanding KYC for airdrop ICO free ponies get rich quick crypto crypto buzzword FREE ponies hype crypto , please Sir I crypto bounties , all in the name of “crypto” , t̵̗̮̭͇̲̓͆̚h̸̢̛͎̜̥̺̊́̆̅̕͠e̸̡̻̺̣̯͉̹̽ ̵̟̙̥̦̦̍̾̂̑h̴̖̥̝̬̞̖̭͒͝i̷̡̦̓̎̑d̸̡̡̮͖͍̗͇̎̉͑̽̾͠d̵̢͇̾̍̒e̴͎̖̥̖̔̀͗̕͜͜n̶̦͚͎̝̓̽͂͂́̋͌ ̸̨̝̹̘̆͠ģ̴̲̜͚̭̐̈́̀͌̄͜o̷̫̙͒̀͂͜͜ͅḑ̸̱̹̘̤̬̅̊̌̈́͒͛͘s̶̢̫͇̒̑ ̴̨̻̬̼̱̝͔̾͊̉̍̍̅̇W̸̮͒̅̿̅̊̃̐͜E̴̤͍̼̅̓͑̀̔̃͘E̵̟̎P̴̗̦͑̆̉ ̴̣̼̎͗̎͆a̵̝̒̑̃̔͊ṥ̷̳̑̉̑ ̵͖͕͓͕͐͌͜͝a̵̼̰͖̗̒͛l̵̘̦̫̰͖͙̋l̵͇̗̩̘̫̓͌̿ ̵̩̲͕̼̅̔̓̍̈́͜c̷̠̻̫̣̽̇͘r̴̬̩̔̈́̋̆y̵̨̧͔̪̪̪̘̌ṕ̶̩̆̂t̸̡̻͐ő̸̞̲͘͘-̴̯̩͔̬̠̦̙̆̀̂̕g̸̡̞̩͎͛̈́͜ò̵̠̞͗̅̀̀̆o̷̗͈̥͈̬͕̒̂d̵̖͙̣͋͗̾n̵̢̡͙͑͋͊̉́e̶̼̪͊̍̄̓s̸̨̗͓̻̈̍̈́̈́͊̚͘s̴̡̗̞̮̬̱͌̆ ̸̲̫̝̿̒̏̎į̸̱̜̹͎̩̋͋̇͜s̶̹͙̺̘̓̎̒͌̆ͅ ̸̱̰̃̕͝D̵̫͓͑E̶͖͓͌̈́̓F̷̟̭̖̬̼͖͉̾̃̄̈̋I̵̺̩̥̦͖̫̓̆̈̚L̶̼̟̭̫͚͚͆ͅĚ̴̡͈̼͍͙̞̆̏̊Ḋ̸͔͉̿̕ ̶̥͙̬̣͇̰͈̂,̷̠̲̰̣̦̯͓̿͝ ̴͙̋̆H̴̰͙̲̫͒̀Ȩ̵̗͓̩̘̦̘̀̌͑̃L̷͉̍͋̕P̷̢̪̠͆̀̚ ̴͉̭͉̻̬͉͐͝Ḿ̷̬̼͓͐̿́E̶͖̓̀̉̌͝ ̸͔̥̓̓̀̊̍͊̄W̵̜̘̻̋̓ͅẸ̴̢͍̘̖̐̌̒͘ ̶̛̲̗̭̙͖̏̈́̈́̌̂̕A̷̢̗̼̍̍͘̚Ŕ̶̯̺̠̋̈̐̊͜Ē̶͎̈́̿̊ ̶̛̰̮̦̥̤̇͒̀̒͆A̵̢̨̤̗̭̙͒̉͘͘C̶̢͈̠͂̄̀C̶̘̺̖̻̭͚̝̓̋̌̿̚U̶̡̡͉̥͈̬͇͌̈̓̀R̸̲̳̣̲̲̳̟̎͆͛S̷̩̟̹͆́͑͋͐̚̕Ė̸̦͙̝̓̒̏͘͘͝D̸̳̺̺̞̝͌̂̾͂͂ ̵̮̩͙̲̘̞̅Ń̴̤O̷̘̥͋̊̀̚T̵̹̫̙̯̤̓ ̴͉͙̪͎͎̦̑̈́̂̄͝B̸̗͍͓̑̍̾͐͝Y̷̨͈̫͋̓͋̀̂̑ ̶͇̐͐̀̊D̶̙̗̝͖̬̖͗̃̈́̀Ĕ̵̢̥̯̜̠̱͓̀̑̿́V̴̰͙̜̺̖̮͕́́͂̽Ĭ̶̪͙͖̼̜̑̒̽L̷̝͐Š̴̺ ̴̡̨̫͎̍͗̈̆̚͜͝B̵̼͎̅̇̓͒̀̉ͅÛ̵̠̾̿̔͒͑͊T̴͇͍̰̍͂͒̍͌͜͜͝ ̸͎͙͕̮͆̏̉̈́̊̅͜B̴̢̻͎͍̥̯̳̆̃̋̀̚Y̷̛̲̖͓̖͚͈̹͋͒ ̶̧̼̟̹͍̉̈́̐͐̒̿ͅP̵̯͋͛È̴̫̗͇̫̤T̷̢̨̬̞͌͑́̚T̵͙̲̤̮̅̋͑Y̶̧̫̙̠͈̓̈͝ ̵̧̠͈̿̋S̵̠͌̑̂̌͘T̷̰͍̲̋̅͂͛Ư̶̧̯̘̠͖̠̏̏P̶̡̨̦̣̭͚̪͐̌I̴̡̞̥͇̘̓́̅Ḑ̴͖̠͕̟̞̤͒̈́Ȉ̸̬̭̻͈͑T̷̲̘͉̘̰̅Y̶̢̢͈̝̹̙̠͒͌ ̷̨̨̝̩̝̑̀͘Ṫ̶͈̣̭̗̙͛Ḩ̸̠͈̫̘̝̉̌Ā̵̩͕͑̀̓͝T̷̮̒̿̌̉́̾̒ ̸̰̪͙͉̠͗̀̒̕C̴̙̲̀̇̿̑͘̕O̶͔͉̝̜̹̻͌̍̐͗Ñ̶̡̗̘̼̎̀̐̐͘͝Ş̷̯̺̇͛U̴̹̰̺̹̅̈͋̆͂͘M̸̭͚̺̆̽̏͑́̀͝E̸͍̫̫̻̯̾̏́͊ͅͅS̴̨̺̹̮̺̹̯͑̿̈́̈ ̴͎͎̯̂Ḁ̶̗͆̿̊̒̑ͅL̵̡̞̫̲̪̺͋̈́̊L̷̞̞̮̍́̆̑͒ ̴̳̟͎̼̖́̓̈́̍̈I̴̝̲̐Ṇ̶̢̨͎͈̞̠̐͐͐̓̀̚ ̶̨̜̮̖̗͝Í̸̭̺̈́̇͌͐̚͝T̵̟̗͔͋̈͊͊̈́͋͝S̵̛͎͙̻̖̞̿̀͑̾̍͜ ̴̧̣̲͉͚̈̾͆́̾͝͠P̵̥͓̹̫̳̙̲̀̈́̅̓̃̄̕Ä̵̖̥̃̄T̵͕̭̠̲̓̅̽̍H̵̘̩͑̒͒

[LFC_Bitcoin]

You know it’s confirmed that the bottom has been seen when proudhon is in the WO, trolling relentlessly.

$11,000 by Sunday night.

[El duderino_]

The run to ATH has started

Continues

Math’s and science

Continuing

Math and science prove bitcoin cannot ever have an ATH again. I did the calculations and have been studying the best Chinese and Russian sources, just as I did so many years ago.

Where almost there .... at ..... ATH

It’s not to far away anymore

Tik tak tik tak.....

Be on the CCMF

Or don’t .... each persons own choice

I’m on it, most important for me....

[JayJuanGee]

I am a bit bothered by Tyler's use of the word "crypto" - even though i understand that it could be a camouflaging term.

Most of us active in this particular thread know that there would not be hardly any ability for the various shitcoins to flourish in their lil funzies without the underlying security that bitcoin provides the whole space..... Many of the shitcoins, defi and yield farming can proclaim that they are decentralized (when they are not) because they are operating under the ruse that bitcoin is secure in that decentralized sense.

I agree, I'm bothered anytime anyone says "crypto" or the "whole crypto space" and also implies Bitcoin^TM. It's insulting to wrap up Bitcoin^TM in with all of the other crap.

That's like implying a company like Alphabet is even in the same league as all of the pink sheet penny scam companies, just because they are all considered "equities".

There is simply Bitcoin^TM, and then there is everything else....a steaming pile of crypto shitcoin scam crap, designed to part fools from their hard earned money.

The problem is that n00bs coming in to the "crypto space" cannot tell the difference, or are struggling to tell the difference.

I do remain a wee bit uncertain how to deal with the matter, and frequently, I will criticize others for their vagueness or their lack of explanation when they employ the term.  

Even though I continue to agree with the overall sentiment in your above statement, Torque, I do believe that this space continues to evolve, and how we describe the space is going to continue to evolve, too.

I am not suggesting that I am inclined to start to be less denigrating towards the variety of shitcoinery, and especially in a thread like this, we have to be careful NOT to give too much benefit of the doubt to any shitcoins, ICOs, defi tokens/projects, yield farming, etc. because it just seems like a slippery slope that devolves into off-topicness - so probably in that regard, it continues to be way better to merely cursorily dismiss the various shitcoins and projects in this thread.  

I suppose to the extent that any of us might be inclined to really get involved in those various projects, we would discuss those efforts outside of this thread.

Another ongoing problem that we have is trying to figure out BTC price movements and BTC price dynamics.. whether long term or short term - and surely, it would seem quite incomplete to NOT account for some of the ongoing shicoinery shenanigans.....

So probably several of us are going to employ differing frameworks when attempting to characterize the variety of factors that we believe to be affecting BTC's price, and not only might we be wrong from time to time, we might not really be able to anticipate which kinds of projects are going to come out of various spaces whether we are referring to shitcoins or even if we are considering how the fed money printing policies are playing out and even various other traditional markets - equities or otherwise.  Lots of balls to have in the air that seem to have certain kinds of effects on BTC in terms of trying to figure out 1) how we got to our current place in BTC, 2) where we are exactly, and 3) where we might be going (short term or even long term).

I love crypto.  I have been using crypto since long before Bitcoin ever existed; indeed, it was my longtime interest in crypto that got me interested in Bitcoin, not vice versa.  Crypto is much bigger than Bitcoin:  

You know better than that, nullius.

When some of us are getting pissed off by the use of the term crypto, we don't know what the fuck the author might be talking about.  Are they talking about bitcoin or some other crypto currency that is also known as a shitcoin.  They better fucking specify instead of being vague.

And, sure, sometimes it is not even the author's fault in terms of communicating about crypto because some authors might not even realize that they do not understand how bitcoin is differentiated from the various other projects that they lump into the "crypto" category.

Those of us who are worked up about the vague term of crypto useage these days are not referring to pre-bitcoin useage of the term to the extent that we even understand much of the pre-bitcoin history.  Of course, some folks, like yourself, have a better understanding of some of the pre bitcoin dynamics, and even if that likely helps you in various aspects of life, including being able to differentiate between bitcoin and shitcoins, such cypher or crypto knowledge is still not necessary to appreciate some of the bare basics regarding how bitcoin is distinguished from a variety of shitcoins and why normies (who might not know shit about anything beyond sound money or gresham law principles - which are accessible to almost anyone) should end up recognizing bitcoin as the best place to store their value in terms of principles of sound money that is already somewhat intuitively already understood, even by folks with little or not formal education... whether cryptography, cypher punk or any of those more sophisticated technical and ideological components that underly aspects of bitcoin's historical roots.