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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 939293 times)
notme
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October 21, 2014, 08:02:47 PM
 #2061

...
"Analysis never ends" - Is this only for EW? If so please accept our apologies for the inappropriateness.

Have to agree with lebing, more or less. I posted some charts and lines in here as well, but usually as a question to lucif. In general, it's better to keep this thread uncluttered as quite a few people like to know what OP thinks.

Also, terminology suggestion: "hourly 200day Bollinger" sounds weird... You are tracking a 200h SMA/BB, I would say Cheesy

Thank you for your comment,

The Middle 200day BB and the 200MA or SMA (simple moving average) lines are the same. Hourly refers to the 1HR time interval candlestick chart. In other time intervals the, 200MA / Middle 200day BB, produce different values.

200 days != 200 hours

 Huh

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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Cryptoalerts.net
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October 21, 2014, 08:37:45 PM
Last edit: October 21, 2014, 09:29:27 PM by Cryptoalerts.net
 #2062

...
"Analysis never ends" - Is this only for EW? If so please accept our apologies for the inappropriateness.

Have to agree with lebing, more or less. I posted some charts and lines in here as well, but usually as a question to lucif. In general, it's better to keep this thread uncluttered as quite a few people like to know what OP thinks.

Also, terminology suggestion: "hourly 200day Bollinger" sounds weird... You are tracking a 200h SMA/BB, I would say Cheesy

Thank you for your comment,

The Middle 200day BB and the 200MA or SMA (simple moving average) lines are the same. Hourly refers to the 1HR time interval candlestick chart. In other time intervals the, 200MA / Middle 200day BB, produce different values.

200 days != 200 hours

 Huh

Oh Crap #$@@.... We are sorry for the utter Mess (been posting 5 charts at the same time in different forums  Cry)... 200MA
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October 22, 2014, 03:45:14 AM
 #2063

After about 4 days this band will start to collapse, so we may still see a sideways movings within 3-6 days.



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October 22, 2014, 05:22:02 AM
 #2064

Looks like the original plan of new lows still looks good, we all did get a kick out of that fake out tho  Grin
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October 22, 2014, 11:13:44 AM
 #2065

@lucif

I can certainly see another (minor) breakdown in the coming weeks, but I'm wondering why you said earlier that you think hitting 360s would make it a bad picture for the bulls?

To me it looks like we could go all the way to ~340 for a re-test, and it would look a lot like April 16 to May 19 earlier this year. (Of course it would only be similar if there is good support at that level)

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masterluc
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October 22, 2014, 11:31:58 AM
 #2066

360 is subwave 4 triangle apex support, also middle of daily bb. It should hold to materialize optimistic bullish count.

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October 22, 2014, 11:44:12 AM
 #2067

So in your view, this:





is not a likely continuation, in a similar way to how May played out:



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October 22, 2014, 11:44:33 AM
 #2068

Also here, as price development says, II/B shows triangle formation. So any break below 370 (triangle point a) would almost completely invalidate this count.

Also I can say this is not a motive bullish wave if triangle appears in II. This means 5-3-5 (abc), not 5-3-5-3-5. In short - this means $500 should be terminal medium term bullish top.

Here is a potential




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October 22, 2014, 12:31:20 PM
 #2069

@lucif

I can certainly see another (minor) breakdown in the coming weeks, but I'm wondering why you said earlier that you think hitting 360s would make it a bad picture for the bulls?

To me it looks like we could go all the way to ~340 for a re-test, and it would look a lot like April 16 to May 19 earlier this year. (Of course it would only be similar if there is good support at that level)

Sorry for the unsolicited answer, but the comparison with April 16th to May 19th doesn't make sense to me.
In the bullish scenario (with 275$ THE bottom) I am looking at about 9th July 2013, in the bearish scenario
I'm looking at about 5th August 2014. Bearish scenario will be invalidated if 420$ resistance will be firmly broken.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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October 23, 2014, 08:15:36 AM
 #2070

Last activity harmed my bullish count much.

Waiting for collapse of daily bb to resolve further direction.

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October 24, 2014, 04:58:05 AM
 #2071

Gradual decline over next month...


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October 24, 2014, 05:00:07 AM
 #2072

Notice how xbt correlates with xau on daily basis.

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October 24, 2014, 05:04:10 AM
 #2073

Waiting for collapse of daily bb to resolve further direction.

well?
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October 24, 2014, 10:02:09 AM
 #2074

Wake me up when Bitcoin is in a multi trillion deficit, then maybe economists will take it seriously.   Cheesy

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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October 24, 2014, 06:20:33 PM
 #2075

The bear market is well underway but damn I can't wait for a *real* crash to start. I thought maybe it would happen in October but I still haven't gotten the right setup yet. Maybe November or December now. We shall see.
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October 24, 2014, 09:32:00 PM
 #2076

The bear market is well underway but damn I can't wait for a *real* crash to start. I thought maybe it would happen in October but I still haven't gotten the right setup yet. Maybe November or December now. We shall see.
Wasn't the original expectation for this sometime in 2010 or 2011?
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October 24, 2014, 10:19:29 PM
 #2077

Masters 17months bear market well under way.
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October 25, 2014, 03:57:43 AM
 #2078

After about 4 days this band will start to collapse, so we may still see a sideways movings within 3-6 days.



Daily bands started to contract. Further direction resolution is near, bullish count harmed much.

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October 25, 2014, 03:57:56 PM
 #2079


Daily bands started to contract. Further direction resolution is near, bullish count harmed much.
the 30k sell on bearstamp is likely to be in weaker hands so there is plenty of ammo to turn daily volume red




Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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October 25, 2014, 04:03:07 PM
 #2080

Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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