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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 939294 times)
sumantso
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October 26, 2014, 03:43:44 PM
Last edit: October 27, 2014, 05:36:10 PM by sumantso
 #2081

After about 4 days this band will start to collapse, so we may still see a sideways movings within 3-6 days.

-snip-

Daily bands started to contract. Further direction resolution is near, bullish count harmed much.

Uh oh, not good. Sadly I am in BTC, maybe will have to pour real money in now; will certainly do that if it drops below $300.

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Tzupy
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October 26, 2014, 05:43:42 PM
 #2082

For those who believe in the bearish scenario (which would be invalidated by a strong break of 420$ resistance), here is a possible unfolding,
a "replay" of the August drop, only taking about 6 times longer, that's why I used 1h for August and 6h for current charts (current chart may need to be extended).




Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
BootstrapCoinDev
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October 26, 2014, 06:25:11 PM
 #2083

As savers, investors or speculators, ALL we need to know is shown on http://www.oanda.com/currency/converter/

Select BTC vs. USD or BTC vs. XAU (gold), and you get the chart plots.  If you go to the Historical Rates tab, you can create custom charts.

The point is, "There's money in them there Bitcoin hills!"  In fact, BTC kicked Gold's ass.  Big Time!!!*  Which is why I'm re-balancing my portfolio to start buying BTC (after next Dip).
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October 26, 2014, 06:55:04 PM
 #2084

Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Wouldn't it be something if it was found out to be a self running bot created by someone who died? It would be a dump routine if no input is made, it finds a price and dumps. It might be safer than leaving the account in a will.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
BrightAnarchist
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October 26, 2014, 09:55:02 PM
 #2085

Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

You never know - if Bitcoin falls an additionally from here and he buys them back cheaper, he's going to look like he has smart hands.

Don't assume you know the future.
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October 26, 2014, 10:07:54 PM
 #2086

Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

You never know - if Bitcoin falls an additionally from here and he buys them back cheaper, he's going to look like he has smart hands.

Don't assume you know the future.
I don't know the future, but I do know the past (obviously, he sold at the very least into a local bottom), and we can infer that this person had no experience in trading given that he decided to sell everything at one single exchange (Bitstamp had a large price differential to the other exchanges) and the way he did it.
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October 27, 2014, 10:09:46 AM
 #2087

Bitcoin had a nice rally from 300 to 400 but now we are back to what it has been doing best since January a continuation of it's decline.

Currently 340 acts as a base of support while 360 seems to have settled for resistance at least on one exchange Bitstamp. I see this declining in the coming weeks because the market failed to sustain 400 while only a weak attempt at 420 was made. Keep an eye out on the 340 base if this gets taken out and we hold under this I see 250 coming within weeks or a month.

The issue here is a matter of volume the market doesn't have enough to sustain and hold any decent rallies as traders look to take profit. In the good old days traders would simply buy and sell Bitcoins to one another now however traders could care less if Bitcoin rises or falls because money can be made on either side of the trade with short selling.

796, okcoin futures, Bitfinex just to name a few have now made it profitable for traders to be bearish on Bitcoin. You need to take note that in a futures market with high liquidity it has a bearing on the price of an underlying asset in this case Bitcoin so this could have an impact on the market price.

The current Bearish sentiment is 250/190 and if a miracle in bullish volume were to happen 420.  The weekly s1 pivot is 340 and the r1 is 380, we have now done the 50% retracement so where traders decide to go next will be interesting in the coming days.
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October 28, 2014, 12:54:11 AM
 #2088

I don't know the future, but I do know the past (obviously, he sold at the very least into a local bottom), and we can infer that this person had no experience in trading given that he decided to sell everything at one single exchange (Bitstamp had a large price differential to the other exchanges) and the way he did it.

This is true
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October 28, 2014, 02:15:44 PM
 #2089

A comparison of the October 2011 chart with the current one tells me that the bulls should test
and break the 420$ resistance about the 5th - 6th November, in order to assure that 275$ was THE bottom.
Failure to do so would increase the chances for the bearish scenario, in which 275$ won't hold and my
current best guesstimate would be about 180$ (don't ask why, multiple reasons, including a gut feeling).




Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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October 28, 2014, 02:44:54 PM
 #2090

Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Wouldn't it be something if it was found out to be a self running bot created by someone who died? It would be a dump routine if no input is made, it finds a price and dumps. It might be safer than leaving the account in a will.

anyone think that 30k dump is caused by bitpay ? I guess some guy bought a luxury villa in manhattan  Roll Eyes
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October 28, 2014, 04:34:59 PM
 #2091

Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Wouldn't it be something if it was found out to be a self running bot created by someone who died? It would be a dump routine if no input is made, it finds a price and dumps. It might be safer than leaving the account in a will.

anyone think that 30k dump is caused by bitpay ? I guess some guy bought a luxury villa in manhattan  Roll Eyes

No, it was placed immediately after it fell below 300, similar to the manipulation tactics of old. If it was bitpay, it wouldnt have been a round number and it also wouldnt have taken the form of a wall, but rather a massive dump. Are you sure that the bitcoin was converted for the villa?

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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October 28, 2014, 11:34:41 PM
 #2092

Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Wouldn't it be something if it was found out to be a self running bot created by someone who died? It would be a dump routine if no input is made, it finds a price and dumps. It might be safer than leaving the account in a will.

anyone think that 30k dump is caused by bitpay ? I guess some guy bought a luxury villa in manhattan  Roll Eyes

No, it was placed immediately after it fell below 300, similar to the manipulation tactics of old. If it was bitpay, it wouldnt have been a round number and it also wouldnt have taken the form of a wall, but rather a massive dump. Are you sure that the bitcoin was converted for the villa?

No, it wasn't placed after it hit 300 but that wall was actually dump to $300 and seller already sold 3-5k with that dump. Then more sellers and stop losses came and pushed price even lower. That wall managed to reach sub $300 price, becacause above $300 were nice walls before dump. Just saying, maybe everything was manipulation... probably.
masterluc
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October 31, 2014, 07:48:50 AM
 #2093

Guess what

ft73
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October 31, 2014, 09:17:46 AM
 #2094

Guess what



You may want to see here:
https://www.kimonolabs.com/bitcoin/correlator

Check "Gold Price" correlation.

What puzzles me is that BTC is more tightly correlated to "Google share price" Smiley Smiley

EDIT: and "highly anti-correlated" to "Bitcoin Repos on Github". So please stop creating repos Smiley
CoolStoryBro
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October 31, 2014, 09:31:10 AM
 #2095


You may want to see here:
https://www.kimonolabs.com/bitcoin/correlator

Check "Gold Price" correlation.

What puzzles me is that BTC is more tightly correlated to "Google share price" Smiley Smiley

EDIT: and "highly anti-correlated" to "Bitcoin Repos on Github". So please stop creating repos Smiley

any way to get the same graphs on longer scale?
thefiniteidea
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October 31, 2014, 02:45:36 PM
 #2096

Guess what



You may want to see here:
https://www.kimonolabs.com/bitcoin/correlator

Check "Gold Price" correlation.

What puzzles me is that BTC is more tightly correlated to "Google share price" Smiley Smiley

EDIT: and "highly anti-correlated" to "Bitcoin Repos on Github". So please stop creating repos Smiley


Lucif, I'm not sure how to use that site, but I'd be curious to see what the correlation is with DDD

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October 31, 2014, 03:30:38 PM
 #2097

To be honest, if it is correlated with something it's USD strength. I wouldn't call correlation with current gold drop because dollar massacred everything recently, not just gold.

I doubled my small forex playing account today trading EUR and yen drop vs dollar. Gold,silver, GBP, CAD, AUD.. everything crashed vs dollar.

.
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masterluc
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October 31, 2014, 03:51:06 PM
 #2098

Yes, it's dollar - world most valued paper.

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October 31, 2014, 10:32:16 PM
 #2099

Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Wouldn't it be something if it was found out to be a self running bot created by someone who died? It would be a dump routine if no input is made, it finds a price and dumps. It might be safer than leaving the account in a will.

anyone think that 30k dump is caused by bitpay ? I guess some guy bought a luxury villa in manhattan  Roll Eyes

No, it was placed immediately after it fell below 300, similar to the manipulation tactics of old. If it was bitpay, it wouldnt have been a round number and it also wouldnt have taken the form of a wall, but rather a massive dump. Are you sure that the bitcoin was converted for the villa?

No, it wasn't placed after it hit 300 but that wall was actually dump to $300 and seller already sold 3-5k with that dump. Then more sellers and stop losses came and pushed price even lower. That wall managed to reach sub $300 price, becacause above $300 were nice walls before dump. Just saying, maybe everything was manipulation... probably.

I remember the price going down to about $276, then going back up again. It was hours later when the giant wall appeared.
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November 01, 2014, 12:42:34 AM
 #2100

Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Wouldn't it be something if it was found out to be a self running bot created by someone who died? It would be a dump routine if no input is made, it finds a price and dumps. It might be safer than leaving the account in a will.

anyone think that 30k dump is caused by bitpay ? I guess some guy bought a luxury villa in manhattan  Roll Eyes

No, it was placed immediately after it fell below 300, similar to the manipulation tactics of old. If it was bitpay, it wouldnt have been a round number and it also wouldnt have taken the form of a wall, but rather a massive dump. Are you sure that the bitcoin was converted for the villa?

No, it wasn't placed after it hit 300 but that wall was actually dump to $300 and seller already sold 3-5k with that dump. Then more sellers and stop losses came and pushed price even lower. That wall managed to reach sub $300 price, becacause above $300 were nice walls before dump. Just saying, maybe everything was manipulation... probably.

I remember the price going down to about $276, then going back up again. It was hours later when the giant wall appeared.

No, the 30k+ whale pushed it down below $300 and after few minutes pulled it of $300 and set it to $320. Then he pulled it again and after few hours again dump to $300 where it was eaten in 6 hours.
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