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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 939927 times)
masterluc
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October 14, 2014, 01:33:36 AM
 #2021

Say what? Weekly and daily ADX show reversal. "V" formation on charts is a reversal struct. Price closed back inside weekly bb and in positive daily BB zone.

We may expect some bounce (1-2 months) into 500-600 area. But I am skeptic about further bullish move. Wake me up at 500, I'll post next analysis.

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windjc
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October 14, 2014, 01:42:15 AM
 #2022

Say what? Weekly and daily ADX show reversal. "V" formation on charts is a reversal struct. Price closed back inside weekly bb and in positive daily BB zone.

We may expect some bounce (1-2 months) into 500-600 area. But I am skeptic about further bullish move. Wake me up at 500, I'll post next analysis.

Nah. I think we are in the C of an A,B,C correction. We will hit the upper BB around 420, maybe go past it and then we are in bear mode again. Head and shoulder patterns rarely happen in bitcoin.
masterluc
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October 14, 2014, 01:49:06 AM
 #2023

Nah. I think we are in the C of an A,B,C correction. We will hit the upper BB around 420, maybe go past it and then we are in bear mode again. Head and shoulder patterns rarely happen in bitcoin.
Impulse here. We are in A or I since 275



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October 14, 2014, 07:53:15 AM
 #2024

430 target reached.

And up we go...

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October 14, 2014, 08:15:41 AM
 #2025

430 target reached.

And up we go...

430? Are you from the future?
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October 14, 2014, 08:31:19 AM
 #2026

430 target reached.

And up we go...

430? Are you from the future?

Wow, my bitcoin price ticker just fucked up. Top its been $417.99 (Bitstamp), I correct myself Wink

sumantso
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October 14, 2014, 08:59:23 AM
 #2027

430 target reached.

And up we go...

I thought if we reached $420 we go down. That could have been older analysis, I need to be spoon fed all these complicated charts.

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October 14, 2014, 10:36:02 AM
 #2028

1h MACD suggests a correction similar to the one on the 10th is imminent, since market is overbought again.
For the bottom probably around 370$. If lower than that, it would be bearish.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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October 14, 2014, 11:28:05 AM
 #2029

Say what? Weekly and daily ADX show reversal. "V" formation on charts is a reversal struct. Price closed back inside weekly bb and in positive daily BB zone.

We may expect some bounce (1-2 months) into 500-600 area. But I am skeptic about further bullish move. Wake me up at 500, I'll post next analysis.

Nice summary. Pretty close to my own  expectations, that are (vaguely): first, a rise out of the bottom that confuses the bears. So far, volume is there to support it. Then, when it looks like we're back in a full bull market (~600, maybe), either volume keeps up and we actually *are* going into a real bull market, or, like in May/June, volume fizzles out again and we top out, entering another downwards slide, slow first, then accelerating.

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JustAnotherSheep
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October 14, 2014, 02:41:32 PM
Last edit: October 14, 2014, 03:03:31 PM by JustAnotherSheep
 #2030

Say what? Weekly and daily ADX show reversal. "V" formation on charts is a reversal struct. Price closed back inside weekly bb and in positive daily BB zone.

We may expect some bounce (1-2 months) into 500-600 area. But I am skeptic about further bullish move. Wake me up at 500, I'll post next analysis.

Nice summary. Pretty close to my own  expectations, that are (vaguely): first, a rise out of the bottom that confuses the bears. So far, volume is there to support it. Then, when it looks like we're back in a full bull market (~600, maybe), either volume keeps up and we actually *are* going into a real bull market, or, like in May/June, volume fizzles out again and we top out, entering another downwards slide, slow first, then accelerating.
Indeed, I share your (and luc's) sentiment. I refer back to this chart;



 Shocked
So far, we've had a nice bounce off the lower trendline and are heading towards resistance. This is a very large wedge, encompassing the entirety of the post-bubble downtrend, and I feel that a break and validation of the pattern may just provide enough momentum to in turn leave this bear market once and for all.



However we may, as you mention, see a self-similar bear cycle repeat. This scenario would also fit with us breaking the wedge since, as one can see in the below zoomed in chart, the April bottom and subsequent May rise was also marked by divergence + wedge breakout



Thus, in my mind the likeliest way such a scenario will play out is by the formation of yet another, larger fractal wedge (and divergence?) Shocked



But of course the problem with patterns of self-similarity is that they're only self-similar until they aren't Tongue Either way, this is all long-term speculation, and there'll be plenty of sub-waves to trade until then. In other words; we will cross that bridge when we get to it!

(sorry for wall of charts Cheesy)

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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October 14, 2014, 02:47:03 PM
 #2031


 wall of charts Cheesy

This is pretty much what I was thinking and thats why I was surprised luc was saying we are going to 500. If we are going to 500 then we could be going much further quite quickly.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
Tzupy
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October 14, 2014, 02:56:37 PM
 #2032

...
This is pretty much what I was thinking and thats why I was surprised luc was saying we are going to 500. If we are going to 500 then we could be going much further quite quickly.

That's not possible. 500$ is a reasonable target for the peak of the first sub-wave of wave 1. After that there must be corrections.
I have some doubts that a price level of 450$ - 750$ is going to be sustainable for many months during wave 1 and corrective wave 2, we'll see.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
windjc
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October 14, 2014, 08:17:18 PM
 #2033

...
This is pretty much what I was thinking and thats why I was surprised luc was saying we are going to 500. If we are going to 500 then we could be going much further quite quickly.

That's not possible. 500$ is a reasonable target for the peak of the first sub-wave of wave 1. After that there must be corrections.
I have some doubts that a price level of 450$ - 750$ is going to be sustainable for many months during wave 1 and corrective wave 2, we'll see.

You think the bottom is in too?

I have serious doubts.
windjc
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October 14, 2014, 08:21:02 PM
 #2034

Say what? Weekly and daily ADX show reversal. "V" formation on charts is a reversal struct. Price closed back inside weekly bb and in positive daily BB zone.

We may expect some bounce (1-2 months) into 500-600 area. But I am skeptic about further bullish move. Wake me up at 500, I'll post next analysis.

Nice summary. Pretty close to my own  expectations, that are (vaguely): first, a rise out of the bottom that confuses the bears. So far, volume is there to support it. Then, when it looks like we're back in a full bull market (~600, maybe), either volume keeps up and we actually *are* going into a real bull market, or, like in May/June, volume fizzles out again and we top out, entering another downwards slide, slow first, then accelerating.

You think the bottom is in too?  This is an interesting trifecta of bullishness - Luc/Oda/Tzupy

My head is spinning. Smiley
Tzupy
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October 14, 2014, 08:48:05 PM
 #2035

...
This is pretty much what I was thinking and thats why I was surprised luc was saying we are going to 500. If we are going to 500 then we could be going much further quite quickly.

That's not possible. 500$ is a reasonable target for the peak of the first sub-wave of wave 1. After that there must be corrections.
I have some doubts that a price level of 450$ - 750$ is going to be sustainable for many months during wave 1 and corrective wave 2, we'll see.

You think the bottom is in too?

I have serious doubts.

I try to keep an open mind. Both bullish and bearish scenarios are still possible, but the latest developments favor the bullish one.
6 days ago I said that it will take 10 - 15 days until the market will decide a clear direction. It may take longer. Roll Eyes
If the bulls manage to conquer a high enough level and then defend a support level of 300+ when the corrections will come, then the bottom was 275.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
molecular
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October 15, 2014, 05:08:23 AM
 #2036

Volume suggests h&s triggering, which should send price back to daily 200 sma forming even larger inverse h&s

I love fractal patterns. So powerful!

I'm quite confident the V-shaped bottom on October 6th marked a trend reversal.

On fundamentals: I see an uptik in individual influencial investors and even politicians talking their btc-books. Only a matter of time until XBT is mentioned in popular newsletters. It'll work. At some point when price keeps rising the sheep will flock in panicked by price-driven media attention. The short chickens come home to roost in a frenzy... fuel for the rocket.

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
boumalo
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October 15, 2014, 09:35:40 AM
 #2037

...
This is pretty much what I was thinking and thats why I was surprised luc was saying we are going to 500. If we are going to 500 then we could be going much further quite quickly.

That's not possible. 500$ is a reasonable target for the peak of the first sub-wave of wave 1. After that there must be corrections.
I have some doubts that a price level of 450$ - 750$ is going to be sustainable for many months during wave 1 and corrective wave 2, we'll see.

You think the bottom is in too?

I have serious doubts.

I try to keep an open mind. Both bullish and bearish scenarios are still possible, but the latest developments favor the bullish one.
6 days ago I said that it will take 10 - 15 days until the market will decide a clear direction. It may take longer. Roll Eyes
If the bulls manage to conquer a high enough level and then defend a support level of 300+ when the corrections will come, then the bottom was 275.

It depends what you are looking for : are you waiting for the big wave? Buy now! Do you want to speculate on the short term price and you think it will go down again? Wait a little bit to buy

masterluc
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October 15, 2014, 04:08:26 PM
 #2038

Stocks feel bad, gold bounces, xbt bounces.

masterluc
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October 15, 2014, 04:13:56 PM
 #2039

Actually xbt follows gold now. And gold follows opposite to dxy (dollar).

So xbt is now officially goes opposite to US dollar.

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October 15, 2014, 04:14:24 PM
 #2040

Stocks feel bad, gold bounces, xbt bounces.

Gold prices are getting very close to production prices. There isnt any room to go down. They will just shut mines down and creat demand.
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