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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 916272 times)
h3speros
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September 30, 2014, 10:21:24 AM
Last edit: September 30, 2014, 12:02:01 PM by h3speros
 #1941

[...]

So bull/bear is 50/50 for me now.

Still 50/50? Weekly doesn't look good...
Well, it does seem lower scale indicators have caught up, painting a rather bullish (at least short-mid term) picture.

[...]

yep, maybe to 400-410 based on fibos from 450 top

EDIT. or maybe we go to daily ma20 once again and then head back down

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masterluc
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September 30, 2014, 01:42:45 PM
 #1942

I was 50/50 in estimations because of this inverted hammer weekly candle caused by paypal short boom. It usually shows signs of reversal if next candle is bullish. So, if current candle will be bullish - it may be a mid term bottom.



From other side this candle closed below weekly BB -1 deviation. Which was never in history and probably means further accelerated fall.

So I still uncertain, I don't perform any action and sit in cash. I think sitting in cash during bearish trend is best way to save money when I stay unsure. None of my signals shows me green light for bullish or bearish action.

The bearish action I can only perform - is try to catch falling knife (I don't use leverage) - but I don't see support here. The first support I see is 300-340 level where long term -2 VWAP deviation sits ( as i mentioned few pages ago).


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September 30, 2014, 08:52:59 PM
 #1943

[...]

So bull/bear is 50/50 for me now.

Still 50/50? Weekly doesn't look good...
Well, it does seem lower scale indicators have caught up, painting a rather bullish (at least short-mid term) picture.

[...]

yep, maybe to 400-410 based on fibos from 450 top

EDIT. or maybe we go to daily ma20 once again and then head back down

I was 50/50 in estimations because of this inverted hammer weekly candle caused by paypal short boom. It usually shows signs of reversal if next candle is bullish. So, if current candle will be bullish - it may be a mid term bottom.
[...]

So still 50/50; or slightly more bear.

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September 30, 2014, 09:00:38 PM
 #1944

I don't see any direct signs of reversal or bottoming. Only some indirect. Market reaction on paypal warned me about bearish bias. Need one more week to clear.

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September 30, 2014, 09:18:12 PM
 #1945

Thanks for the update, masterluc.

Like the way you describe overall trading strategy ("bearish actions" without shorting, and bottom hunting without support targets) a lot. Food for thought, at least for me.

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October 01, 2014, 01:47:54 PM
 #1946

I don't see any direct signs of reversal or bottoming. Only some indirect. Market reaction on paypal warned me about bearish bias. Need one more week to clear.

Thanks, thats one of your clearest statements.

Holding tight for a week then.

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October 01, 2014, 07:44:51 PM
 #1947

thats one of your clearest statements.
Good oracle makes no clear statements Smiley

Edit: based on 1w MACD histogram, we have 3 months of growth ahead.

Fairplay medal of dnaleor's trading simulator. Smiley
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October 03, 2014, 08:03:18 PM
 #1948

Master, please shine your light upon us Smiley
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October 03, 2014, 09:21:02 PM
 #1949

I assume price will not break up bottom BB resistance in two days, so I should say we going down hard. Not really panic I think, but continous downtrend at least until December 2014. With deeps and rips. Volatility returns.

Nearest support at around 300-340.


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October 04, 2014, 09:11:31 AM
 #1950

I assume price will not break up bottom BB resistance in two days, so I should say we going down hard. Not really panic I think, but continous downtrend at least until December 2014. With deeps and rips. Volatility returns.

Nearest support at around 300-340.



interesting times ahead, thank you!
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October 04, 2014, 08:28:35 PM
 #1951

The fact they are major nuclear powers means they'll never fight each other directly. Proxy wars like in Syria and Ukraine yes, but directly - you have to be an idiot to believe in that.

Is there a difference other than how the story is painted in the press? So long as economies are damaged sufficiently to justify 'default' mission is accomplished. I don't think anyone is suggesting Russia and USA nuking each other ...

"Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves"  - Confucius (China 551BC-479 BC)
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October 05, 2014, 11:57:38 AM
 #1952

here should be some rebound at long term -2 deviation


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October 05, 2014, 03:06:44 PM
 #1953

here should be some rebound at long term -2 deviation

how many days you use in the data sample ?

that's a ~2% so

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October 05, 2014, 06:37:41 PM
 #1954



 Shocked

Don't like the looming prospect of those 30k whale coins though. A sustained dump could invalidate the divergence(s) I think.

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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October 05, 2014, 09:56:12 PM
 #1955

Exciting day, no?

Do you have any good explanation for the weird 30k ask wall that was flashed for a while? Just wondering because I can't make much sense of it, other than someone who's trying to cause uncertainty, and wants to accumulate. Then again, that seems so transparent, not idea if that has a chance to even work.

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October 06, 2014, 02:56:12 AM
 #1956

i posted this in another thread and they sent me here and i got 1 answer also on it so i will post it here see what your responses are cause im kinda worried. BELOW is post i put in other forum  Smiley

so i am going to ask a question in general since i mostly post on these forums. I would like to know everyone opinion " with out the troll or negative unfounded answers " what do you all think is going on with bitcoin. Seems like it has been dropping like crazy i mean we not near any holidays or anything like that so what do you all think. Once again please no troll answers or people mad who bought btc at like $600  and now it has dropped.

thanks  Smiley

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October 06, 2014, 03:24:26 AM
 #1957

i posted this in another thread and they sent me here and i got 1 answer also on it so i will post it here see what your responses are cause im kinda worried. BELOW is post i put in other forum  Smiley

so i am going to ask a question in general since i mostly post on these forums. I would like to know everyone opinion " with out the troll or negative unfounded answers " what do you all think is going on with bitcoin. Seems like it has been dropping like crazy i mean we not near any holidays or anything like that so what do you all think. Once again please no troll answers or people mad who bought btc at like $600  and now it has dropped.

thanks  Smiley
Well, we've seen it drop from $30 to $2, and we've seen it drop from $266 to $38.  Now we're seeing it drop from $1200 to somewhere under $300.  I'm not sure there's any 'reason' for it beyond human psychology.
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October 06, 2014, 03:33:55 AM
 #1958

i posted this in another thread and they sent me here and i got 1 answer also on it so i will post it here see what your responses are cause im kinda worried. BELOW is post i put in other forum  Smiley

so i am going to ask a question in general since i mostly post on these forums. I would like to know everyone opinion " with out the troll or negative unfounded answers " what do you all think is going on with bitcoin. Seems like it has been dropping like crazy i mean we not near any holidays or anything like that so what do you all think. Once again please no troll answers or people mad who bought btc at like $600  and now it has dropped.

thanks  Smiley
Well, we've seen it drop from $30 to $2, and we've seen it drop from $266 to $38.  Now we're seeing it drop from $1200 to somewhere under $300.  I'm not sure there's any 'reason' for it beyond human psychology.
i dont recall that second drop of almost $230 that is insance but good to see it recovered. I wonder what led it to the $1200 price range it did in the past. I think i will hold though i recall the $30 to $2.00 drop i had bought at double digits and had gotten alot of free coin but  isold it all at super single digit price. Fear did me in before i will just keep my btc and see what it does in future i dont have more than i can afford to loose 100%  Cool

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October 06, 2014, 04:46:07 AM
 #1959

i posted this in another thread and they sent me here and i got 1 answer also on it so i will post it here see what your responses are cause im kinda worried. BELOW is post i put in other forum  Smiley

so i am going to ask a question in general since i mostly post on these forums. I would like to know everyone opinion " with out the troll or negative unfounded answers " what do you all think is going on with bitcoin. Seems like it has been dropping like crazy i mean we not near any holidays or anything like that so what do you all think. Once again please no troll answers or people mad who bought btc at like $600  and now it has dropped.

thanks  Smiley
Well, we've seen it drop from $30 to $2, and we've seen it drop from $266 to $38.  Now we're seeing it drop from $1200 to somewhere under $300.  I'm not sure there's any 'reason' for it beyond human psychology.

38? on what exchange?

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October 06, 2014, 07:06:50 AM
 #1960

Rebound to 350-390 expected


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