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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 939293 times)
hdbuck
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October 06, 2014, 08:02:14 AM
Last edit: October 06, 2014, 09:17:42 AM by hdbuck
 #1941

I know this is not the thread for such non technical analysis, but how about some selling pressure from banksters et al with load of cash? I mean, they must know we are coming for them, so they may want to try to dry out our hope in bitcoin? Not that the price has impacted the hard bitcoiners, only the late comers that indeed invested @500-700$?

This is pure speculation but i think that the previous big crashes from 260 to 35 or 35 to 2$ did not required a lot of money and could definitely be explained by human psychology, bitcoin being relatively new at that time, but now that it went to +1000$, we surely are even more confident about its potential. Hence, big bagholders are somehow trying to refrain the next bubble momentum in order to somehow buy more time or even accumulate huge bitcoin position? Gold is collapsing, stocks too, just not teh dollar, i just find it sort of weird.. Especially knowing the US economy is just a joke, disconnected from any fundamentals, on the verge of implosing and only sustained by professionnal scammers and manipulators with money printers..
If you want success with trading - never try to figure out other participants mind. You will never know. They just act. Like me and you and all. You better try to figure out what happens with your mind. Learn what is going on with you - not others.

okee many thx, i guess my mind was just boggling as to if bitcoin would get trapped by the money printers too.
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RoadTrain
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October 06, 2014, 08:09:43 AM
 #1942

I know this is not the thread for such non technical analysis, but how about some selling pressure from banksters et al with load of cash? I mean, they must know we are coming for them, so they may want to try to dry out our hope in bitcoin? Not that the price has impacted the hard bitcoiners, only the late comers that indeed invested @500-700$?

This is pure speculation but i think that the previous big crashes from 260 to 35 or 35 to 2$ did not required a lot of money and could definitely be explained by human psychology, bitcoin being relatively new at that time, but now that it went to +1000$, we surely are even more confident about its potential. Hence, big bagholders are somehow trying to refrain the next bubble momentum in order to somehow buy more time or even accumulate huge bitcoin position? Gold is collapsing, stocks too, just not teh dollar, i just find it sort of weird.. Especially knowing the US economy is just a joke, disconnected from any fundamentals, on the verge of implosing and only sustained by professionnal scammers and manipulators with money printers..
If you want success with trading - never try to figure out other participants mind. You will never know. They just act. Like me and you and all. You better try to figure out what happens with your mind. Learn what is going on with you - not others.
What about gauging "market sentiment"? Is it pointless?
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October 06, 2014, 10:04:01 AM
 #1943

I see market sentiment in charts

ft73
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October 06, 2014, 10:08:25 AM
 #1944

I see market sentiment in charts

 Grin

Any signals of possibility of a strong reversal?
So far i see only a rebound chance.
kryptopojken
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October 06, 2014, 10:14:35 AM
 #1945

Yeah, was this really IT? Or more to come ...
masterluc
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October 06, 2014, 10:23:53 AM
 #1946

Yeah, was this really IT? Or more to come ...
What IT? Bottom? During last 2 days - YES. You didn't specified timeframe  Grin

It is big mistake - try to catch "true" bottom and sell at "true" top. It is the best way to loose money because you will never do that. And while you try to do that you loose a lot of money. Nobody perfect.

I see price went too far down and buy. I see price went too far up and sell. Indicators, oscillators wave theories helps me to feel the strength of wave to define whether it weak or still strong. I act on weak wave. Weak bearish wave - buy, weak bullish wave - sell.

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October 06, 2014, 10:32:03 AM
 #1947

Request for some input, luc:

Would you consider this (orange box) to count as (conditional) support?





Daily SMA20, 3SD. Wick broke support, but close above.

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masterluc
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October 06, 2014, 10:40:03 AM
 #1948

Your pic says at this volatility level (bb width) -3 line is safe place to buy and -1 line is best place to sell.

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October 06, 2014, 10:45:31 AM
 #1949

Your pic says at this volatility level (bb width) -3 line is safe place to buy and -1 line is best place to sell.

Ha, nice. Thanks. That's a much better way to think of it.

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kryptopojken
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October 06, 2014, 10:55:48 AM
 #1950

Yeah, was this really IT? Or more to come ...
What IT? Bottom? During last 2 days - YES. You didn't specified timeframe  Grin

It is big mistake - try to catch "true" bottom and sell at "true" top. It is the best way to loose money because you will never do that. And while you try to do that you loose a lot of money. Nobody perfect.

I see price went too far down and buy. I see price went too far up and sell. Indicators, oscillators wave theories helps me to feel the strength of wave to define whether it weak or still strong. I act on weak wave. Weak bearish wave - buy, weak bullish wave - sell.

That makes perfect sense Smiley Just wondering if you think we will retest the low 275. Or maybe that doesn't matter right now?
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October 06, 2014, 01:40:32 PM
 #1951

I assume price will not break up bottom BB resistance in two days, so I should say we going down hard. Not really panic I think, but continous downtrend at least until December 2014. With deeps and rips. Volatility returns.

Nearest support at around 300-340.

Spot on prediction!

Rebound to 350-390 expected
Daily macd bullish divergence disappeared

This negates the earlier rebound prediction?

masterluc
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October 06, 2014, 02:55:15 PM
 #1952

This negates the earlier rebound prediction?
No.

devphp
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October 06, 2014, 02:58:05 PM
 #1953

What happens after rebound?
masterluc
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October 06, 2014, 03:32:20 PM
 #1954

Probably triangle

thiec
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October 07, 2014, 03:30:16 PM
 #1955

What happens after rebound?

Its drop again  Grin

kryptopojken
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October 07, 2014, 10:26:57 PM
 #1956

Will we break down from this formation?
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October 07, 2014, 10:28:32 PM
 #1957

Will we break down from this formation?

Probably after retesting the 270 low
masterluc
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October 07, 2014, 10:34:10 PM
 #1958

i dont see any formation yet after last drop

kryptopojken
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October 07, 2014, 10:41:07 PM
 #1959

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I was thinking about this:

oda.krell
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October 07, 2014, 11:55:14 PM
 #1960

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I was thinking about this:

[picture downward channel]

Or, alternatively, upwards breakout out of this triangle:



Not really betting on that though, no volume confirmation or anything.

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