Fakhoury
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Permabull Bitcoin Investor
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August 25, 2015, 09:38:00 PM |
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Agree with Luc. We are probably entering the silent phase for a year or more. We have a lot of time for historical III, it can last from 4 to ... years.
What is the probability that there will be historical III ? |
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
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SmoothCurves
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August 25, 2015, 09:40:15 PM |
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1.5 years of a silent phase range-bound between 200 - 300? I could live with that. I def do not have anywhere near a respectable number of coin so it would be nice to pick up some more during that time.
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Afrikoin
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alan watts is all you need
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August 25, 2015, 09:41:21 PM |
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Agree with Luc. We are probably entering the silent phase for a year or more. We have a lot of time for historical III, it can last from 4 to ... years.
What is the probability that there will be historical III ? Historical III is almost certain. As long as there was II, then there'll be III and IV and V. Logically. This is EW. Trouble is, figuring out whther we're in II, or IV, or A,B,C correction. |
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madjules007
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August 25, 2015, 09:47:28 PM |
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Agree with Luc. We are probably entering the silent phase for a year or more. We have a lot of time for historical III, it can last from 4 to ... years.
What is the probability that there will be historical III ? As long as there was II, then there'll be III and IV and V. Logically. This is EW. Trouble is, figuring out whther we're in II, or IV, or A,B,C correction. Not really. An impulse implies that after a II or B wave, that we will see another impulse. It is entirely possible -- assuming that masterluc's count is correct -- that the Historical I was actually an A wave, and that we will not see a Historical III but rather a C wave. It can be 5-3-5-3-5, but it can also be 5-3-5 / correction. |
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BldSwtTrs
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August 25, 2015, 09:48:51 PM |
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We need 5 years of sideway, 2 more halving. Then we can get the mother of all bubble  |
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Afrikoin
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alan watts is all you need
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August 25, 2015, 10:19:30 PM |
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Agree with Luc. We are probably entering the silent phase for a year or more. We have a lot of time for historical III, it can last from 4 to ... years.
What is the probability that there will be historical III ? , then there'll be III and IV and V. Logically. This is EW. Trouble is, figuring out whther we're in II, or IV, or A,B,C correction. Not really. An impulse implies that after a II or B wave, that we will see another impulse. It is entirely possible -- assuming that masterluc's count is correct -- that the Historical I was actually an A wave, and that we will not see a Historical III but rather a C wave. It can be 5-3-5-3-5, but it can also be 5-3-5 / correction. [/quote] Historical III is almost certain. As long as there was II, then there'll be III and IV and V. Logically. This is EW. Trouble is, figuring out whther we're in II, or IV, or A,B,C correction. [/quote] |
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Wary
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August 25, 2015, 10:53:53 PM |
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If I am right and price will leave bearish market in 2012 style, then we will have one-two years more of sideways.
The halving is in less than a year. It should get us out of the sideways channel. |
Fairplay medal of dnaleor's trading simulator.
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madjules007
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August 25, 2015, 11:41:16 PM |
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Historical III is almost certain. As long as there was II, then there'll be III and IV and V. Logically. This is EW.
You missed the point. An impulse (Historical I) can be either a I or an A. There is nothing prima facie that determines that it was a I. So there is no evidence yet to determine whether we saw a Wave II or a Wave B. We won't be able to tell until we see an obvious Wave III. Yes, it's possible that it was a II, but in terms of validity, there is nothing to indicate whether the grand structure is an impulse or a corrective. |
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masterluc (OP)
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August 26, 2015, 12:04:17 AM |
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If I am right and price will leave bearish market in 2012 style, then we will have one-two years more of sideways.
The halving is in less than a year. It should get us out of the sideways channel. Price already in range since Jan 2015 - it is fucking our brains. While speculators want volatility, Bitcoin wants a calm. |
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btc4lifer
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August 26, 2015, 12:10:54 AM |
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While speculators want volatility, Bitcoin wants a calm.
We are getting plenty of volatility, let just keep it up.  |
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FuckScammer
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August 26, 2015, 12:45:35 AM |
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MasterLuc, Do you still think this is historical III ? Apparently,$210-318 is not sub wave 1.
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Wary
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August 26, 2015, 02:33:18 AM |
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If I am right and price will leave bearish market in 2012 style, then we will have one-two years more of sideways.
The halving is in less than a year. It should get us out of the sideways channel. Price already in range since Jan 2015 - it is fucking our brains. While speculators want volatility, Bitcoin wants a calm. I agree with it, but I was talking not of what we want, but what will happen. If influx of dollars into bitcoin system is the same and reward is halved, the price will double. The sideways channel is 200-300, therefore the doubled price will be around 400-600. I don't know if this will trigger a rally, but in any case it would be way above of the current sideways channel. |
Fairplay medal of dnaleor's trading simulator.
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molecular
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August 26, 2015, 05:27:49 AM |
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If I am right and price will leave bearish market in 2012 style, then we will have one-two years more of sideways.
The halving is in less than a year. It should get us out of the sideways channel. Price already in range since Jan 2015 - it is fucking our brains. While speculators want volatility, Bitcoin wants a calm. I agree with it, but I was talking not of what we want, but what will happen. If influx of dollars into bitcoin system is the same and reward is halved, the price will double. The sideways channel is 200-300, therefore the doubled price will be around 400-600. I don't know if this will trigger a rally, but in any case it would be way above of the current sideways channel. I'm quite sure it would trigger a rally. Price doesn't just double with no other effect. Media hype, etc... there's no better money magnet than a rising price. |
PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0 3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
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BldSwtTrs
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August 26, 2015, 07:14:41 AM |
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It's not because the supply will divided by two that the price will double, even if demand is constant.
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8up
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August 26, 2015, 07:24:04 AM |
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If I am right and price will leave bearish market in 2012 style, then we will have one-two years more of sideways.
The halving is in less than a year. It should get us out of the sideways channel. Price already in range since Jan 2015 - it is fucking our brains. While speculators want volatility, Bitcoin wants a calm. I agree with it, but I was talking not of what we want, but what will happen. If influx of dollars into bitcoin system is the same and reward is halved, the price will double. The sideways channel is 200-300, therefore the doubled price will be around 400-600. I don't know if this will trigger a rally, but in any case it would be way above of the current sideways channel. Halving has no immediate influence on price. Markets aren't stupid - they price in things ahead. Like they are pricing in a possible hard fork in 2016 -NOW! |
Always wrong until not.
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masterluc (OP)
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August 26, 2015, 12:47:34 PM |
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I call this "The Halving Fallacy"!
Halving has no immediate influence on price. Markets aren't stupid - they price in things ahead. Like they are pricing in a possible hard fork in 2016 -NOW!
yep, as nov 2012 shown there was no any immediate market reaction. absolutely no one cared as far as i remember. But price bubbled few months earlier from 6 to 16. |
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masterluc (OP)
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August 26, 2015, 12:55:50 PM |
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Besides trend break down failed. Bear trap as promised. Go sideways 200-300  |
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davidorentol
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August 26, 2015, 02:02:14 PM |
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great return above 200 weekly sma and log downtrend line .....wow
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dEBRUYNE
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August 26, 2015, 02:12:57 PM |
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I call this "The Halving Fallacy"!
Halving has no immediate influence on price. Markets aren't stupid - they price in things ahead. Like they are pricing in a possible hard fork in 2016 -NOW!
yep, as nov 2012 shown there was no any immediate market reaction. absolutely no one cared as far as i remember. But price bubbled few months earlier from 6 to 16. Personally I think the market reaction will happen months (if not earlier) before the halving, this happened in 2012 and also happened at the current LTC halving (although some of it was just blatant pumping). It's a bit like buy the rumour, sell the news only slightly different :-P |
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