[DEAD] DeepBit.net PPS+Prop,instant payouts, we pay for INVALID BLOCKS too

[Tittiez]

See this site for correct data: http://blockorigin.pfoe.be/blocklist.php

in the meantime blockchain.info has maintained your new IP.

http://blockchain.info/blocks/83.169.22.26 is associated with the right pool and hidden from public.

Gyrsur this is getting stupid. We really don't care if deepbit changes its IP's to hide from the public. I would rather have the mining pool working then have it under a constant DDOS.

[1713863015]

1713863015

[1713863015]

1713863015

[dishwara]

See this site for correct data: http://blockorigin.pfoe.be/blocklist.php

in the meantime blockchain.info has maintained your new IP.

http://blockchain.info/blocks/83.169.22.26 is associated with the right pool and hidden from public.

Gyrsur this is getting stupid. We really don't care if deepbit changes its IP's to hide from the public. I would rather have the mining pool working then have it under a constant DDOS.

+100

[P4man]

Indeed. Its almost as if Gyrsur only wants to know what IP to DDoS?

[os2sam]

Indeed. Its almost as if Gyrsur only wants to know what IP to DDoS?

Or, it's almost as if he is accusing Tycho of mining blocks with our hash power for his own profit.  But maybe I'm misreading what he is saying.
Sam

[zvs]

Indeed. Its almost as if Gyrsur only wants to know what IP to DDoS?

Or, it's almost as if he is accusing Tycho of mining blocks with our hash power for his own profit.  But maybe I'm misreading what he is saying.
Sam

I was curious about the node I posted earlier because it was running the deepbit website (or some excellent facsimile)  and chrome popped up some BS about how I could be going to somewhere that wasn't what I thought it was.


as for 83.169.22.26??  shrug

[FLHippy]

Hi there,

    I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall, but it seems that when deepbit is having bad luck, it tends to last quite a while. I was wondering if anyone could offer suppositions on why this might be. Good luck never seems to last as long as bad luck. We had a +98% day a little over a week ago. I'm not sure I've ever seen a -98% day. Then again, There are many more -20% days than +20% days.

    Best I could come up with is somehow the hashes are salted with the calendar and some days are extra salty.

    To be clear, I love deepbit. I prefer running in proportional mode. 99.9% of my hashes go there and the other .1% goes to a backup PPS pool when deepbit can't be reached. I'm just genuinely curious as to why bad days seem to last a good 24+ hours instead of 6, or 12 hours. I'm in it for the long haul till GPUs aren't profitable and I realize that over time it all evens out. It sure is nice when there are -50% days vs +60% days like we had yesterday

[organofcorti]

Hi there,

    I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall, but it seems that when deepbit is having bad luck, it tends to last quite a while. I was wondering if anyone could offer suppositions on why this might be.

How long is a while? Also, how much longer is this than the average good luck run? Can you post the results here when you're done?

I think if you go back and analyse the last several thousand blocks, you wont notice any significant difference between good and bad luck.

[FLHippy]

Hi there,

    I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall, but it seems that when deepbit is having bad luck, it tends to last quite a while. I was wondering if anyone could offer suppositions on why this might be.

How long is a while? Also, how much longer is this than the average good luck run? Can you post the results here when you're done?

I think if you go back and analyse the last several thousand blocks, you wont notice any significant difference between good and bad luck.

I completely agree that over time luck does not play a factor in payout at all. It evens out.

My wonder is, that when luck is bad. It seems to stay bad for more than 12 hours. A run of 6 hours bad seems to lead to a run of 24 hours bad luck.

It could be all in my head. I have no real numbers to back this up. Just memories of thinking "Oh luck is bad this morning", seemingly often followed by "Wow, luck is still bad this evening"

Thinking a bit more about it, a really really long block solve, say 4+ hours weighs really heavy if you get a few more of the normal 1+ hour block solves. This is probably what I'm seeing (in my head).

[organofcorti]

Hi there,

    I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall, but it seems that when deepbit is having bad luck, it tends to last quite a while. I was wondering if anyone could offer suppositions on why this might be.

How long is a while? Also, how much longer is this than the average good luck run? Can you post the results here when you're done?

I think if you go back and analyse the last several thousand blocks, you wont notice any significant difference between good and bad luck.

I completely agree that over time luck does not play a factor in payout at all. It evens out.

My wonder is, that when luck is bad. It seems to stay bad for more than 12 hours. A run of 6 hours bad seems to lead to a run of 24 hours bad luck.

It could be all in my head. I have no real numbers to back this up. Just memories of thinking "Oh luck is bad this morning", seemingly often followed by "Wow, luck is still bad this evening"

Thinking a bit more about it, a really really long block solve, say 4+ hours weighs really heavy if you get a few more of the normal 1+ hour block solves. This is probably what I'm seeing (in my head).

I see what you mean. Yes, if you average luck by day instead of by round it will seem like poorer luck on average, and this is the same for every pool. But take luck over say 30 rounds instead of 1 day and the luck average is closer to normal.

There are a bunch of stats I've collected for most pools: http://organofcorti.blogspot.com.au/2012/08/26th-august-weekly-pool-statistics.html

Makes it easy to see any significant differences.

[eleuthria]

I believe part of the problem is the way luck updates.  I'm not positive for Deepbit, but I know most pools update luck when a round ends.  If the pool is in a bad round, it means luck will show up as good for a long time, even though if this round were to end RIGHT NOW the luck would be bad.

As a result, once the bad round finishes, it will continue to drag down the luck until the 24 hour window is over and the block is no longer hurting the average.  A 4 or 6 hour block on Deepbit would generally mean the whole day will be "bad luck", even if the following 23 hours had more blocks than expected.

It's also just human nature to single out when things look bad, and look over things when they're normal or slightly better than expected, so bad luck sticks out much more in your recall.

[[Tycho]]

    I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall, but it seems that when deepbit is having bad luck, it tends to last quite a while. I was wondering if anyone could offer suppositions on why this might be. Good luck never seems to last as long as bad luck.

Actually it's usually neutral.
For example, as shown at our stats page now, luck results for current difficulty span are 0.3% better than expected.

[organofcorti]

As Kano mentioned a number of pages back, if you average luck edit: in terms of round length over a time period, longer rounds have a larger weight. If you average over a number of rounds instead, then longer rounds have no more weight than shorter rounds.

tl;dr:
1. If you want to measure "luck" in terms of round length, don't average over time: average over a number of blocks instead.
2. If you want to measure average luck per time period, use the Poisson CDF for the expected number of blocks given the current pool hashrate.

[[Tycho]]

Good idea, I'll try to implement that.

[dishwara]

Hi there,

    I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall, but it seems that when deepbit is having bad luck, it tends to last quite a while. I was wondering if anyone could offer suppositions on why this might be. Good luck never seems to last as long as bad luck. We had a +98% day a little over a week ago. I'm not sure I've ever seen a -98% day. Then again, There are many more -20% days than +20% days.

    Best I could come up with is somehow the hashes are salted with the calendar and some days are extra salty.

    To be clear, I love deepbit. I prefer running in proportional mode. 99.9% of my hashes go there and the other .1% goes to a backup PPS pool when deepbit can't be reached. I'm just genuinely curious as to why bad days seem to last a good 24+ hours instead of 6, or 12 hours. I'm in it for the long haul till GPUs aren't profitable and I realize that over time it all evens out. It sure is nice when there are -50% days vs +60% days like we had yesterday

BAD must be bad, then only you will call it bad.
You can't call some one dead until he stops breathing 100%.
Even some comes back alive after they dead for some hours.

Same thing goes to bad luck.
If you have negative profit more than some percentage you think, then only you call it bad luck.
In your own terms, 6 or 12 hours is not bad for you.
But if bad continues 24+ hours, you feel it is bad.
For some 6+ hours is bad.
For some 24+ hours is bad.
For some 100+ hours is bad.

For some people eating 3 times a day is very good luck, coz they so far only able to see food 3 days once only.

If you fear then go for PPS.
I can call myself the first one to start a MINING company with 100% money from BTC only & also first one to gone public by issuing IPO.
The interesting thing is normally all start a company, do business & after some time they release shares to extend their business.
I got money by issuing IPO in the name of DISHWARA, got BTC, converted all to dollars, then to INR & bought hardware, started mining & gave dividend.
But after some time i got problems, so i bought all the shares i sold, (still 29 shares left, some one don't want to give share back to me), closed every thing & now trying to buy shares from others in GLBSE.

No one knows DISHWARA was the first mining business started using only BTC & a business started public but ended private.
What is luck to me?

[FLHippy]

Hi there,

    I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall,

No one knows DISHWARA was the first mining business started using only BTC & a business started public but ended private.

WTF does this have to do with mining luck?

[dishwara]

Hi there,

    I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall,

No one knows DISHWARA was the first mining business started using only BTC & a business started public but ended private.

WTF does this have to do with mining luck?

Yes, Since i want to start again, luck is changing.
Ones i become stable, luck will be stable.

[organofcorti]

Hi there,

    I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall,

No one knows DISHWARA was the first mining business started using only BTC & a business started public but ended private.

WTF does this have to do with mining luck?

Yes, Since i want to start again, luck is changing.
Ones i become stable, luck will be stable.

It's ok FLHippy. It's just dishwara's way of welcoming you to mining.

[FLHippy]

    I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall,

After casting about it turns out there is an answer to this after all. It's Gambler's Fallacy..... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

there is no reason to assume at any point that a change of luck is warranted based on prior trials (flips), because every outcome observed will always have been as likely as the other outcomes that were not observed for that particular trial

In other words, luck should be ignored if you're not mining PPS.

Sorry to bother...

[organofcorti]

    I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall,

After casting about it turns out there is an answer to this after all. It's Gambler's Fallacy..... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

there is no reason to assume at any point that a change of luck is warranted based on prior trials (flips), because every outcome observed will always have been as likely as the other outcomes that were not observed for that particular trial

In other words, luck should be ignored if you're not mining PPS.

Sorry to bother...

Well, not ignored. The pool's luck record helps you ensure your payment has been correct if you're on prop. And luck can be analysed to make sure a pool is not being dishonest about results (as Bitclockers were at the start of the year when they were a prop pool).

But why should luck not be ignored if you;re mining PPS? As long as you get paid for every share you submit, what does the pool's luck matter?

[FLHippy]

    I'm not sure there is an answer to this questions. Luck is luck afterall,

luck should be ignored if you're not mining PPS.

Sorry to bother...

But why should luck not be ignored if you;re mining PPS? As long as you get paid for every share you submit, what does the pool's luck matter?

I'm sorry I think I meant luck should be ignored from day to day, morning to evening, if you're mining proportional (not mining pps). in time you'll make more money with the lower fee.

I was answering my own question, why does it seem luck is bad for a longer time than it's good. Because I'm looking at it twice a day which is much too short of a time period. Extra long block solves weigh more heavily than average and less than average solve times can lift it back up in a 24 hour time span.

I think this is clearer?