Test Cricket Prediction and Discussion Thread [self - mod]

[Minecache]

New Zealand could have lost the match early on day five, but they tried their best. In the opening session, the Kiwis lost only one wicket, and they remained competitive until the third session. Despite their efforts, the Kiwis were unable to prevent South Africa's win. South Africa won the second test match thanks to an outstanding performance by Kagiso Rabada. The second test ended in a loss for New Zealand by 198 runs, ending the series at 1-1.

If the opener does not start the innings well, it becomes difficult to win the match. And I want to blame their two openers for New Zealand's defeat. Tom Latham scored 1 run in two innings. Will Young collected 3 runs in two innings. If the two of them could have started well and collected around 30-40 runs, New Zealand could have fought for the win. But the South African bowlers have played great. Rabada's bowling was outstanding.

Yes, it was always the openers who plays an important role in the cricket matches. The initial wicket loss makes the match to be easy for the opponent. During the first innings same scenario happened, but with the batting of Grandhomme things changed and New Zealand got back into the match. The second innings didn't give hands.

I have always thought that the opening batsman should always be really good at their work and also has to be a little crazy. I mean why would you decide to bat at a time when the ball is moving the most and the pitch is also doing its best? Right?

But probably it's just me. But I am sure that the openers do need to be really good at their job. They have to observe the heat of the best bowlers bowling at the start of the innings. And losing the first wicket cheaply can put the teams on the back foot. That's what happened in this case and they actually never recovered quite well from it.

[Haunebu]

Newzealand is obviously going to have a really hard time defending their title and I don't see them being successful doing it. Because they have had a really bad start.

I thought Australia has a good chance but they have lots of games in sub-continent and away conditions and I don't see them doing too good in certain situations.

New Zealand will most probably not retain the championship this time around and I don't think India will win it either. My bet is on Australia to win the championship since they are on a roll winning trophies across all formats these days.

India seems to be a good choice for picking to be in the finals again. I am really hopeful about South Africa though, they have shown good performance and also a really strong test side.

I don't think that they are a strong test side to be honest. South Africa has been performing well in home conditions, but they haven't improved much in away conditions though.

[JSRAW]

Not just hard but close to zero chances for them.

This is current report for all the series.

NZ - 1 home series (SL)  and 2 away series (ENG + PAK). Eng hit the rock bottom but i think they will do okay from here. They need a miracle.

India's chances doesn't good because they need to win majority of their remaining games, even draw matches can ruin their chances but i would be very happy if proven wrong. (point system based on win %)

@JSRAW I’m frankly quiet surprised to see that NZ has very less chance of defending their title, but not surprised to see team India among the favourites to reach the finals. Also a key thing to consider here is that team India has dropped two non performing player’s, and this could either work for them or could be wrong move as those player’s could have played better in the home conditions what do you think of team India’s decision?.

Well, luck runs out for everyone and Williamson is not available due to injury so this is another reason. Williamson being injured and another classy batter Lathom is out of form not helping their cause and due to this their batting department showing some weakness at least in last 6 matches, they completely failed in India. Bangladesh and South Africa managed to win 1 game each as well.

In 10-12 years India has lost only 3 matches at home so replacing Rahane-Pujara for home condition is not going to hurt at all and its a best decision. India can find new batters easily from domestic when playing at home, even debutant will do better job than those 2, we already have Shreyas's inning against NZ as recent example. Overseas series are tricky tho.

[coinism]

Newzealand is obviously going to have a really hard time defending their title and I don't see them being successful doing it. Because they have had a really bad start.

I thought Australia has a good chance but they have lots of games in sub-continent and away conditions and I don't see them doing too good in certain situations.

India seems to be a good choice for picking to be in the finals again. I am really hopeful about South Africa though, they have shown good performance and also a really strong test side.

Of all test playing teams only Australia has the capability to perform in every country apart from home conditions. India is very strong only in home conditions and average performance outside and same is true for other countries also. Aus are in subcontinent and shortly we will see how well they have prepared for subcontinent conditions.

[jostorres]

Newzealand is obviously going to have a really hard time defending their title and I don't see them being successful doing it. Because they have had a really bad start.

I thought Australia has a good chance but they have lots of games in sub-continent and away conditions and I don't see them doing too good in certain situations.

India seems to be a good choice for picking to be in the finals again. I am really hopeful about South Africa though, they have shown good performance and also a really strong test side.

With current table positions and future programs looks not good for titleholder New Zealand to defend their title they already lost very crucial points against South Africa and Bangladesh now their future series are also very tough so with this all I am feeling right now Australia and India are two very strong contenders for future final because right now just these two teams are capable to give very results in all conditions even India is currently having some concerns after opt out of Pujara and Rahane but still they are very strong and capable of having wins against all teams in any conditions.

South Africa is also not bad at all, but they need some good time for having better results, their win against New Zealand was very impressive.

[Sithara007]

It is too early to predict who will qualify for the WTC finals at this point. Although I am not going to deny the fact that New Zealand has suffered a couple of setbacks recently, it is unfair to discount their chances. They still have the best test batsman (Kane Williamson) and the best pace attack in the world (Boult/Wagner/Jamieson/Henry/Southee/Milne). Right now, none of the other teams can match their team balance. The only domain where they are lagging behind is in spin department. They dominate in all the other departments.

[BALIK]

It is too early to predict who will qualify for the WTC finals at this point. Although I am not going to deny the fact that New Zealand has suffered a couple of setbacks recently, it is unfair to discount their chances. They still have the best test batsman (Kane Williamson) and the best pace attack in the world (Boult/Wagner/Jamieson/Henry/Southee/Milne). Right now, none of the other teams can match their team balance. The only domain where they are lagging behind is in spin department. They dominate in all the other departments.

New Zealand is a very strong team. I would say they are more likely to qualify for WTC. But they have lost points in a few matches. They have lost the same Test match against Bangladesh and also lost one against South Africa. However, they still have plenty of time to qualify for the WTC Final. They will have to play more responsibly in the upcoming matches. I think they have the abvilty.

[JSRAW]

It is too early to predict who will qualify for the WTC finals at this point. Although I am not going to deny the fact that New Zealand has suffered a couple of setbacks recently, it is unfair to discount their chances. They still have the best test batsman (Kane Williamson) and the best pace attack in the world (Boult/Wagner/Jamieson/Henry/Southee/Milne). Right now, none of the other teams can match their team balance. The only domain where they are lagging behind is in spin department. They dominate in all the other departments.

They are left with 7 test match ( 3 series). If they want to qualify for the finals without depending on any other team's result then they need minimum 6 wins.

Home - 2 tests against Sri Lanka
Away -  2 against Pakistan and 3 against England

Let's say they successfully beat SL easily at home but they still need to win 4 games against Pak and Eng, which i think would be very tough and really need a miracle because Pakis are no dummy imo. Already said about England, they are dead in WTC and hit the rock bottom. Their trajectory can only go up from here so i believe they will perform okay from now on, at least at home.

[blatchcorn]

They are left with 7 test match ( 3 series). If they want to qualify for the finals without depending on any other team's result then they need minimum 6 wins.

Home - 2 tests against Sri Lanka
Away -  2 against Pakistan and 3 against England

Let's say they successfully beat SL easily at home but they still need to win 4 games against Pak and Eng, which i think would be very tough and really need a miracle because Pakis are no dummy imo. Already said about England, they are dead in WTC and hit the rock bottom. Their trajectory can only go up from here so i believe they will perform okay from now on, at least at home.

This means that New Zealand they can only lose one match out of 7 scheduled tests. Its difficult from here but not impossible as they have 5 matches against SL and England. I go with @Sithara007 thats too early to predict that who will qualify for the final as Aus and SL have played only one series so far. If Australia manage to beat Pakistan in upcoming test series then surely they have chance to reach final of WTC 2022. 

[JSRAW]

They are left with 7 test match ( 3 series). If they want to qualify for the finals without depending on any other team's result then they need minimum 6 wins.

Home - 2 tests against Sri Lanka
Away -  2 against Pakistan and 3 against England

Let's say they successfully beat SL easily at home but they still need to win 4 games against Pak and Eng, which i think would be very tough and really need a miracle because Pakis are no dummy imo. Already said about England, they are dead in WTC and hit the rock bottom. Their trajectory can only go up from here so i believe they will perform okay from now on, at least at home.

This means that New Zealand they can only lose one match out of 7 scheduled tests. Its difficult from here but not impossible as they have 5 matches against SL and England. I go with @Sithara007 thats too early to predict that who will qualify for the final as Aus and SL have played only one series so far. If Australia manage to beat Pakistan in upcoming test series then surely they have chance to reach final of WTC 2022. 

Cricket is funny game so i won't rule out this possibly that's why i said they need miracle.

Hardly a early stage for a team if they already played 3 series and crawling at point table, don't forget every team can play only 6 series. Although point system is based on Win ratio but indirectly connected to a series as well. Point is early stage argument is good if team played only 1-2 series.

Current standing..

[Maidak]

-snip

Not just hard but close to zero chances for them.

This is current report for all the series.

NZ - 1 home series (SL)  and 2 away series (ENG + PAK). Eng hit the rock bottom but i think they will do okay from here. They need a miracle.

India's chances doesn't look good because they need to win majority of their remaining games, even draw matches can ruin their chances but i would be very happy if proven wrong. (point system based on win %)

Newzealand certainly seems to have not much of a chance. They also did not perform well up to the expectations of many people.
India is going to be motivated but it looks really hard to win that much. I think this team can lose a match just by being a little unlucky and that could easily be the case for India. Australia and South Africa have the most chances in my opinion.

@JSRAW I’m frankly quiet surprised to see that NZ has very less chance of defending their title, but not surprised to see team India among the favourites to reach the finals. Also a key thing to consider here is that team India has dropped two non performing player’s, and this could either work for them or could be wrong move as those player’s could have played better in the home conditions what do you think of team India’s decision?.

I think that India took the right decision because if a player is not performing at his best, he is rested and the player who is showing potential is given the chance. It's better to make some changes than to wait and hope for the player to perform better. So, I think this is obviously a positive change for India.

[Marvell1]

I also have to agree because  Sri Lanka may be an easier opponent and they could get wins against them. But Pakistan is going to give them a really good fight and make things really hard for them. And obviously, England is at the bottom and probably they will try to get some wins in and the thing is, England don't have anything to lose right now so they will come out all guns blazing. So, good luck, I guess…

It is too early to predict who will qualify for the WTC finals at this point. Although I am not going to deny the fact that New Zealand has suffered a couple of setbacks recently, it is unfair to discount their chances. They still have the best test batsman (Kane Williamson) and the best pace attack in the world (Boult/Wagner/Jamieson/Henry/Southee/Milne). Right now, none of the other teams can match their team balance. The only domain where they are lagging behind is in spin department. They dominate in all the other departments.

They are left with 7 test match ( 3 series). If they want to qualify for the finals without depending on any other team's result then they need minimum 6 wins.

Home - 2 tests against Sri Lanka
Away -  2 against Pakistan and 3 against England

Let's say they successfully beat SL easily at home but they still need to win 4 games against Pak and Eng, which i think would be very tough and really need a miracle because Pakis are no dummy imo. Already said about England, they are dead in WTC and hit the rock bottom. Their trajectory can only go up from here so i believe they will perform okay from now on, at least at home.

[Maidak]

Newzealand is obviously going to have a really hard time defending their title and I don't see them being successful doing it. Because they have had a really bad start.

I thought Australia has a good chance but they have lots of games in sub-continent and away conditions and I don't see them doing too good in certain situations.

New Zealand will most probably not retain the championship this time around and I don't think India will win it either. My bet is on Australia to win the championship since they are on a roll winning trophies across all formats these days.

India seems to be a good choice for picking to be in the finals again. I am really hopeful about South Africa though, they have shown good performance and also a really strong test side.

I don't think that they are a strong test side to be honest. South Africa has been performing well in home conditions, but they haven't improved much in away conditions though.

South Africa actually has a far better performance in the home condition than away conditions. The win percentage of South Africa in test matches in away conditions from 2019-2022 is almost 50%. So, they certainly need to upgrade their game in away conditions. But in the home conditions, they are quite good already.
Source: https://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/records/team/series_results.html?class=1;id=3;type=team

[coinism]

I also have to agree because  Sri Lanka may be an easier opponent and they could get wins against them. But Pakistan is going to give them a really good fight and make things really hard for them. And obviously, England is at the bottom and probably they will try to get some wins in and the thing is, England don't have anything to lose right now so they will come out all guns blazing. So, good luck, I guess…

Home - 2 tests against Sri Lanka
Away -  2 against Pakistan and 3 against England

I would say apart from Pakistan, England wont be too easy to be defeated at there home ground. England lost 4/0 in Australia just because they are over confident. As far as WTC is concerned, its very much over for England they have series coming up against NZ, India, SA and Pakistan. England will defiantly looking to improve there test positions by winning these series and undo the damage done during ashes. 

[Maidak]

-snip

With current table positions and future programs looks not good for titleholder New Zealand to defend their title they already lost very crucial points against South Africa and Bangladesh now their future series are also very tough so with this all I am feeling right now Australia and India are two very strong contenders for future final because right now just these two teams are capable to give very results in all conditions even India is currently having some concerns after opt out of Pujara and Rahane but still they are very strong and capable of having wins against all teams in any conditions.
South Africa is also not bad at all, but they need some good time for having better results, their win against New Zealand was very impressive.

I will say that I am quite sure about Australia because they have been quite impressive. But, I am in a dilemma between India and South Africa because I think India is better but they have certainly faced some problems recently. And South Africa has played quite well recently but they don't have a good record in away conditions. And I think we all are almost certain that New Zealand is going to lose their title this time.

[minairia3]

They are left with 7 test match ( 3 series). If they want to qualify for the finals without depending on any other team's result then they need minimum 6 wins.
Home - 2 tests against Sri Lanka
Away -  2 against Pakistan and 3 against England
Let's say they successfully beat SL easily at home but they still need to win 4 games against Pak and Eng, which i think would be very tough and really need a miracle because Pakis are no dummy imo. Already said about England, they are dead in WTC and hit the rock bottom. Their trajectory can only go up from here so i believe they will perform okay from now on, at least at home.

This means that New Zealand they can only lose one match out of 7 scheduled tests. Its difficult from here but not impossible as they have 5 matches against SL and England. I go with @Sithara007 thats too early to predict that who will qualify for the final as Aus and SL have played only one series so far. If Australia manage to beat Pakistan in upcoming test series then surely they have chance to reach final of WTC 2022. 

Cricket is funny game so i won't rule out this possibly that's why i said they need miracle.
Hardly a early stage for a team if they already played 3 series and crawling at point table, don't forget every team can play only 6 series. Although point system is based on Win ratio but indirectly connected to a series as well. Point is early stage argument is good if team played only 1-2 series.
Current standing..

I think Australia is going to win against Pakistan but it will be really close. And then they are quite certain to play the WTC finals. It's obviously quite early but I think we can get a really good idea of how things are shaping up. I see Australia, India, and South Africa having decent chances but Australia needs to win against Pakistan. And India has some hard matches to win.

[onecall123]

^ Three Tests will be played between Pakistan and Australia. Hosting the test series against Australia should be a very happy moment for Pakistani cricket. A great test series is on the way! Here's hoping both teams give it their all. Both teams will be targeting the top of the WTC table. A win over the Aussies will certainly put Pakistan in a position of stability on top. India must win all its home games and should not accept a draw. Every team should be played at home and at away equally, or else it is pointless. A team should play an equal number of home and away matches.

[galambo]

^ Three Tests will be played between Pakistan and Australia. Hosting the test series against Australia should be a very happy moment for Pakistani cricket. A great test series is on the way! Here's hoping both teams give it their all. Both teams will be targeting the top of the WTC table. A win over the Aussies will certainly put Pakistan in a position of stability on top. India must win all its home games and should not accept a draw. Every team should be played at home and at away equally, or else it is pointless. A team should play an equal number of home and away matches.

Less then 12 hours left for this historic test to begin. Skies are very much clear now in Rawalpindi still there is rain prediction on 4th day of test. Pakistan target will be to win the series they are never a good test team so I don't think WTC will be in there minds. Pakistan will be happy to see international cricket finally reviving in there country after 13 years.

[teosanru]

^ Three Tests will be played between Pakistan and Australia. Hosting the test series against Australia should be a very happy moment for Pakistani cricket. A great test series is on the way! Here's hoping both teams give it their all. Both teams will be targeting the top of the WTC table. A win over the Aussies will certainly put Pakistan in a position of stability on top. India must win all its home games and should not accept a draw. Every team should be played at home and at away equally, or else it is pointless. A team should play an equal number of home and away matches.

Less then 12 hours left for this historic test to begin. Skies are very much clear now in Rawalpindi still there is rain prediction on 4th day of test. Pakistan target will be to win the series they are never a good test team so I don't think WTC will be in there minds. Pakistan will be happy to see international cricket finally reviving in there country after 13 years.

For Australia, this might be just another series or country they are touring but for Pakistan, this definitely is a higher pressure series. If they win it not only will they prove their strength as a good test team, other countries too might reconsider the idea of touring Pakistan in the future. A big thing to see will also be the viewership this match gets. An international match after so long for Pakistanis at their home soil. Playing the spin would be the most difficult task for Australia tomorrow obviously. They also will definitely play with 2 full time spinners.

[galambo]

For Australia, this might be just another series or country they are touring but for Pakistan, this definitely is a higher pressure series. If they win it not only will they prove their strength as a good test team, other countries too might reconsider the idea of touring Pakistan in the future. A big thing to see will also be the viewership this match gets. An international match after so long for Pakistanis at their home soil. Playing the spin would be the most difficult task for Australia tomorrow obviously. They also will definitely play with 2 full time spinners.

Australia is only touring Pakistan because of there strength as a strong cricketing team. If Pakistan manage to dominate this tour then surely rest of the cricket teams will also tour Pakistan. England and New Zealand are scheduled to tour Pakistan later this year. Pakistan is a safe bet in ODI and T20 but slightly sloppy in Test. Let's see how things went tomorrow.