Harris Vs Trump - Bitcoin betting on the 2024 US Presidential Election

[jossiel]

I just based it on the odds and that's why I've said that she's the front liner. While with the news and sentiments of the people, I think that Trump is really likely to win after that assassination attempt happened.

Thanks, I understand that despite with all of these ratings that they're getting now, it's still the electoral college that shall proclaim the winner of this poll.

The very first thing that we need to understand is that the outcome of the POTUS elections in the United States is not decided by all the 50 states. The outcome is dependent on a handful of "swing" states. So it doesn't matter how much support Kamala or Trump can garner in deep-blue or deep-red states such as New York, New Jersey, Oklahoma or Alabama. The election will be decided by the voters in states such as Pennsylvania and Georgia. The problem with nation-wide opinion polls is that they take the full picture by taking all 50 states into account.

And that's why it seem that I have understood it as if by the majority through 50 states. Anyway, the interesting part is with these swings, it's really unpredictable.

3 months to go and a few days and we'd see who's the real winner on this election for the POTUS. While the discussion keeps going on, the political thoughts really are overwhelming.

[bbc.reporter]

It appears that Robert Kennedy's declaration on his support on the Donald Trump did not pump Trump's ratings hehehe. Polymarket appears to have this 50% for each candidate.

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1724637895511

This might be on 50-50 until the last 2 weeks before November 5. The candidate who will have a pump in ratings during this last 2 weeks will certainly have the victory.

[pawel7777]

I believe Trump was a slight underdog on many betting websites until Robert F. Kennedy Jr's endorsement (I could be wrong though), now most odds are set at 50/50 for Trump/Kamala, so it seems the endorsement did make some impact.
According to YouGov's poll cited by the Independent, before RFK pulled out, 1% of declared Democrats intended to vote for him:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/rfk-jr-trump-harris-polls-endorsement-b2601082.html
I don't expect that 1% of the votes will now go to Trump, but Trump will surely get a decent portion of RFK voters who declare themselves as independent or Republican-leaning.

[el kaka22]

Kennedy may had or not have any impact on the results, but whatever he did, he did it for the time being, both candidates still has a very big chance to win because we still have time. Trump might be onto something, he has been shown playing golf and relaxing, while many people say that's a wrong thing, he knows that what matters is the last two weeks to a month, not right now.

So he is taking his time, relaxing, resting, and on the very last month, October (or even some of September) he will go out to do the maximum he can do, like multiple speeches a day type of hard work, and for that to actually work, he needs to rest and relax. Or maybe he is just a moron who thinks he has it in the bag and not care, I do not know which one it is really lol.

You never know with these politicians, one thing I am certain, it could be trump, it could be kamala, it could have been Kennedy or Michelle or Biden, no matter who won, they will not help the people, they will help themselves and their lobbyists that's it.

[TwitchySeal]

Kennedy may had or not have any impact on the results, but whatever he did, he did it for the time being, both candidates still has a very big chance to win because we still have time. Trump might be onto something, he has been shown playing golf and relaxing, while many people say that's a wrong thing, he knows that what matters is the last two weeks to a month, not right now.

Early voting starts in a couple weeks in some states.  The most important state, for example, Pennsylvania, starts allowing ballots to be cast on Sept 19th.

Trump just likes to play golf and relax.  During the 4 years he was president he played golf 261 times.  That's once every 5.6 days.  For 4 years. 

[kro55]

I believe Trump was a slight underdog on many betting websites until Robert F. Kennedy Jr's endorsement (I could be wrong though), now most odds are set at 50/50 for Trump/Kamala, so it seems the endorsement did make some impact.
According to YouGov's poll cited by the Independent, before RFK pulled out, 1% of declared Democrats intended to vote for him:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/rfk-jr-trump-harris-polls-endorsement-b2601082.html
I don't expect that 1% of the votes will now go to Trump, but Trump will surely get a decent portion of RFK voters who declare themselves as independent or Republican-leaning.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s support was only 3% before, but him leaving the campaign and siding with Trump cannot guarantee that 3% of the vote will go to Trump because we all know that the RFK family is a Democrat and he himself is a Democrat. His support for Trump also faced strong opposition from his own family, who voted for Harris.

Harris had been outperforming Trump in previous polls, but the situation suddenly changed when her statements on taxes and the economy failed to win over voters. That put Trump's support far ahead of hers, but now their odds are almost even.



https://polymarket.com/elections

[Yucky]

I believe Trump was a slight underdog on many betting websites until Robert F. Kennedy Jr's endorsement (I could be wrong though), now most odds are set at 50/50 for Trump/Kamala, so it seems the endorsement did make some impact.
According to YouGov's poll cited by the Independent, before RFK pulled out, 1% of declared Democrats intended to vote for him:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/rfk-jr-trump-harris-polls-endorsement-b2601082.html
I don't expect that 1% of the votes will now go to Trump, but Trump will surely get a decent portion of RFK voters who declare themselves as independent or Republican-leaning.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s support was only 3% before, but him leaving the campaign and siding with Trump cannot guarantee that 3% of the vote will go to Trump because we all know that the RFK family is a Democrat and he himself is a Democrat. His support for Trump also faced strong opposition from his own family, who voted for Harris.

Harris had been outperforming Trump in previous polls, but the situation suddenly changed when her statements on taxes and the economy failed to win over voters. That put Trump's support far ahead of hers, but now their odds are almost even.



https://polymarket.com/elections

this sort of close margine between trump and Harris kamala makes the race of getting who eventually takes charge of the white house more interesting. Though Robert. F Kennedy has joined trump and naturally, it's supposed to give Trump some advantage but his 3% supporters can't make much difference and can easily get suppressed into the same range of margin Trump and Kamala still shares. The events playing out ever since Biden stepped out of the way for Kamala and how it has boosted the hope of the democrat in wining at the pools come November is a reflection of what difference the individual flag bearer plays in an electionary setting like this have on the outcome of an election. At this point where the margin between Trump and Kamala is this close, every factor that gives you some added relevance over your rival really counts big time.

[nullama]

I believe Trump was a slight underdog on many betting websites until Robert F. Kennedy Jr's endorsement (I could be wrong though), now most odds are set at 50/50 for Trump/Kamala, so it seems the endorsement did make some impact.
According to YouGov's poll cited by the Independent, before RFK pulled out, 1% of declared Democrats intended to vote for him:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/rfk-jr-trump-harris-polls-endorsement-b2601082.html
I don't expect that 1% of the votes will now go to Trump, but Trump will surely get a decent portion of RFK voters who declare themselves as independent or Republican-leaning.

I think the US elections can go either way.

I think it is still a bit 50/50, and it will be historical anyway, independent of who wins.

It would be the first woman president in the US, and maybe civil war?, and the second term of Trump will see a huge change in the US and the world.

[Haunebu]

We all know that the realistic odds are 50:50 at the moment, but supporters from each group are just making it seem like one has the advantage over the other. The whole RFK Jr stuff is blown out of proportion since his support doesn't mean much.

This is basically Clinton vs Trump 2.0. Clinton lost the first time around surprisingly while Trump lost against Biden later. If this cycle continues, Trump it is. If it breaks, Harris it is.

[Sithara007]

We all know that the realistic odds are 50:50 at the moment, but supporters from each group are just making it seem like one has the advantage over the other. The whole RFK Jr stuff is blown out of proportion since his support doesn't mean much.

This is basically Clinton vs Trump 2.0. Clinton lost the first time around surprisingly while Trump lost against Biden later. If this cycle continues, Trump it is. If it breaks, Harris it is.

RFK supporters are mostly young urban voters and they can add a lot of value to the Trump campaign. Because most of the core demographics who support Trump are middle-aged suburb and rural voters. And there seems to be some over-reaction from the Democrat circles. They are refusing to remove Kennedy from the ballots in some of the swing states. They are hoping that if they keep him on the ballot, then he will eat into the votes of Trump. These sort of desperate steps can backfire on the Dems.

[baeva]

Kennedy may had or not have any impact on the results, but whatever he did, he did it for the time being, both candidates still has a very big chance to win because we still have time. Trump might be onto something, he has been shown playing golf and relaxing, while many people say that's a wrong thing, he knows that what matters is the last two weeks to a month, not right now.

Early voting starts in a couple weeks in some states.  The most important state, for example, Pennsylvania, starts allowing ballots to be cast on Sept 19th.

Trump just likes to play golf and relax.  During the 4 years he was president he played golf 261 times.  That's once every 5.6 days.  For 4 years. 

For the most part, this early voting doesn't mean much. Yes, theoretically it can show in whose favour the margin is, but it does not mean that it will be the same margin during the main voting. Especially now it is very difficult to understand who actually has some advantage, because the stakes are one thing, and what the citizens of this country think is another. It's bad that Kamala cancelled the debate, it would have shown what she is really capable of and it would have been clear at once who is likely to become the president

[pawel7777]

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s support was only 3% before, but him leaving the campaign and siding with Trump cannot guarantee that 3% of the vote will go to Trump because we all know that the RFK family is a Democrat and he himself is a Democrat. His support for Trump also faced strong opposition from his own family, who voted for Harris.

Harris had been outperforming Trump in previous polls, but the situation suddenly changed when her statements on taxes and the economy failed to win over voters. That put Trump's support far ahead of hers, but now their odds are almost even.

https://polymarket.com/elections

Thanks for the link.
I thought that the percentage figures represented the popular votes from the polls, but they actually represent forecasted results accounting for the electoral votes, which is way better.
Do we know if the Polymarket uses their own polls or do they use combined results from multiple different polls, which is generally considered the best and most accurate way of making predictions?

[Hispo]

We all know that the realistic odds are 50:50 at the moment, but supporters from each group are just making it seem like one has the advantage over the other. The whole RFK Jr stuff is blown out of proportion since his support doesn't mean much.

This is basically Clinton vs Trump 2.0. Clinton lost the first time around surprisingly while Trump lost against Biden later. If this cycle continues, Trump it is. If it breaks, Harris it is.

RFK supporters are mostly young urban voters and they can add a lot of value to the Trump campaign. Because most of the core demographics who support Trump are middle-aged suburb and rural voters. And there seems to be some over-reaction from the Democrat circles. They are refusing to remove Kennedy from the ballots in some of the swing states. They are hoping that if they keep him on the ballot, then he will eat into the votes of Trump. These sort of desperate steps can backfire on the Dems.

It sounds indeed as desperate move if the democrat party is doing so. I get they are pretty much aware Trump.was the most hurt by Kennedy candidacy, so it would make sense if they tried to keep him in the ballot in those swing states (which in the end will decide the election by their own). Though, I am curious... Do you have some source or news about democrat politicians actually pushing for Kennedy to stay in the ballot? Much of the feed I get from YOutube and other applications are left leaning, so it is unlikely I will get the news by myself without an external link. (We all know how biased the media can be).

By the way, I think both of us can agree Kennedy is nothing but a political opportunistic individual who was from the beginning ready to sell his endorsement to the highest bidder, that is the main reason he stayed in the race and refused to leave it, even after Joe Biden secured the nomination by the Democrat party.
I have got little respect for him and the stuff the have said about 9/11 and school shootings in the United States...

[STT]

RFK cannot withdraw from 2 of the states he wanted to, I read today that it is already too late to withdraw in some cases which means some of his voters will continue to place a vote for him.  Even after he has backed Trump not all his votes will goto Trump thats a given anyhow, as some of his supporters are not aligned to Trump.  Its only that Trump is anti vax that seems to be the main issue mentioned and nothing is clear exactly anyway.

Whatever small percentage RFK does have can still count alot if its votes in places Trump needed and I think that was the case.  The family being Democrat traditionally isnt that relevant as he was a third party candidate in this case so was already outside of that system, you had to be a renegade to be voting for him in the first place which will suit some but not most as people usually like to think they got someone into power personally.

[TwitchySeal]

We all know that the realistic odds are 50:50 at the moment, but supporters from each group are just making it seem like one has the advantage over the other. The whole RFK Jr stuff is blown out of proportion since his support doesn't mean much.

This is basically Clinton vs Trump 2.0. Clinton lost the first time around surprisingly while Trump lost against Biden later. If this cycle continues, Trump it is. If it breaks, Harris it is.

RFK supporters are mostly young urban voters and they can add a lot of value to the Trump campaign. Because most of the core demographics who support Trump are middle-aged suburb and rural voters. And there seems to be some over-reaction from the Democrat circles. They are refusing to remove Kennedy from the ballots in some of the swing states. They are hoping that if they keep him on the ballot, then he will eat into the votes of Trump. These sort of desperate steps can backfire on the Dems.

It sounds indeed as desperate move if the democrat party is doing so.

It sounds more like another MAGA conspiracy where Trump is always the victim.

RFK is still on the ballot because he is the official nominee of a political party in Michigan.  In Wisconsin, the law is "Any person who files nomination papers and qualifies to appear on the ballot may not decline nomination. The name of that person shall appear upon the ballot except in case of death of the person."  In North Carolina, they're still trying to figure out if they can reprint all the ballots in time and I think that's it.

MAGA world will always blame "them" and their argument will rarely be based in reality.

If anyone is to blame, it's obviously RFK.