Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[tvbcof]

BTFD

I did so yesterday.  I got it for $1650 per Krugerrand.

Last time I bought Krugerrands the premium was like $20 bucks..  Lemme go dig around.. 1650 seems high, are we starting to see a physical to paper differential?

no, he overpaid.

The purchase yesterday was actually on my behalf from someone who owed me money and happened to be near a dealer in WA, but not terribly far out of line with what I'm accustom to paying to my dealer when I buy in CA.  It was only a few OZ so I did not get any volume discount.

Seems like even though dealers hedge, the spread gets significantly higher when there is volatility.  I suppose their costs to hedge go up.  I am totally happy to pay a premium to buy face-to-face from a dealer with a long history of being in business.  I've never resorted to buying on-line.  An unpleasantly high percentage of other things I buy on-line are never delivered correctly or as advertised and it's not worth the hassle for me when it comes to buying PM's.

[cypherdoc]

it's gonna be one of those ugly nights for gold and silver again (not to mention all risk assets EXCEPT Bitcoin).

[cypherdoc]

USD shooting up to $80.33

[tvbcof]

it's gonna be one of those ugly nights for gold and silver again (not to mention all risk assets EXCEPT Bitcoin).

“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” - Mark Twain

Gold is a common enough part of the holdings of larger financial institutions, hedge funds, etc these days that when there is a significant need for liquidity, it goes on the block.  It would not surprise me to see a transient decline in the price of gold (particularly paper gold) in the event of a need for liquidity, and we've seen this phenomenon from time to time in recent years.  They've never bothered me much.  There seem to be enough buyers these days that the price recovers surprisingly quickly.

[cypherdoc]

$29 silver.  yep, i blinked and i missed it too.

[bitcool]

“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” - Mark Twain

Gold is a common enough part of the holdings of larger financial institutions, hedge funds, etc these days that when there is a significant need for liquidity, it goes on the block.  It would not surprise me to see a transient decline in the price of gold (particularly paper gold) in the event of a need for liquidity, and we've seen this phenomenon from time to time in recent years.  They've never bothered me much.  There seem to be enough buyers these days that the price recovers surprisingly quickly.

+1.
I still miss the days when paper silver dropped from $20 to $9, the best bullion deal I could find was around $12. I backed up my semi..... 

[cypherdoc]

“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” - Mark Twain

Gold is a common enough part of the holdings of larger financial institutions, hedge funds, etc these days that when there is a significant need for liquidity, it goes on the block.  It would not surprise me to see a transient decline in the price of gold (particularly paper gold) in the event of a need for liquidity, and we've seen this phenomenon from time to time in recent years.  They've never bothered me much.  There seem to be enough buyers these days that the price recovers surprisingly quickly.

+1.
I still miss the days when paper silver dropped from $20 to $9, the best bullion deal I could find was around $12. I backed up my semi..... 

i bought all my silver btwn $9 and $12 too!  brilliant minds think alike!  can't wait to do it again!

[tvbcof]

+1.
I still miss the days when paper silver dropped from $20 to $9, the best bullion deal I could find was around $12. I backed up my semi..... 

i bought all my silver btwn $9 and $12 too!  brilliant minds think alike!  can't wait to do it again!

My first PM purchase was silver and it was shortly before we went into Iraq.  The inevitability of the war had gotten me studying economics and that opened my eyes to PM's which I  had never had any interest in prior.  By pure shit-house luck it happened on a day when it took a little blip down to what I think was something like $4.20.

Of course I've bought much higher than that as well.  I'm underwater on my recent purchase I believe.  But my recent purchases tend to be smaller...a $1000-face bag is fairly dear compared to the good old days.  Wake me up when I can get another one for $3500 if you would be so kind.

[miscreanity]

@miscreanity: I guess my idea of piano certificate money wont kick off then? I was going to call them keys and 88 keys would equal a piano with 88 keys redeemable for one piano.

Assembly technician included?

It'd still be better than SolidCoin...

last chance to buy Bitcoin under $5.

Is it too early to call this prediction wrong?  If so, how long do I have to wait?

I'm pretty certain that Bitcoin will take off when the reigns holding physical gold & silver back are loosed.

+1.
I still miss the days when paper silver dropped from $20 to $9, the best bullion deal I could find was around $12. I backed up my semi..... 

i bought all my silver btwn $9 and $12 too!  brilliant minds think alike!  can't wait to do it again!

As long as the buying is being done from a country so obscure that nobody can point it out on a map...

[cypherdoc]

+1.
I still miss the days when paper silver dropped from $20 to $9, the best bullion deal I could find was around $12. I backed up my semi..... 

i bought all my silver btwn $9 and $12 too!  brilliant minds think alike!  can't wait to do it again!

My first PM purchase was silver and it was shortly before we went into Iraq.  The inevitability of the war had gotten me studying economics and that opened my eyes to PM's which I  had never had any interest in prior.  By pure shit-house luck it happened on a day when it took a little blip down to what I think was something like $4.20.

Of course I've bought much higher than that as well.  I'm underwater on my recent purchase I believe.  But my recent purchases tend to be smaller...a $1000-face bag is fairly dear compared to the good old days.  Wake me up when I can get another one for $3500 if you would be so kind.

yeah, all i bought was bags of junk silver too.  i honestly don't know how you resisted selling into that parabola last year May.  i sold a few bags at $49 and broke my back selling all the rest down in the high 30's for an avg cash out of $44.  clearly i won't be considering buying again if or until we get back down where i initially bought.  don't get me wrong; i love the metals out of their beauty and the concept of hard money but the trader (cycles) in me told me to sell.

and yes, i think Bitcoin has way more potential from here on.

[tvbcof]

...
and yes, i think Bitcoin has way more potential from here on.

Since this conversation has drifted a way from needling jabs (however briefly) I'll elaborate on some of my concepts and strategies.

If Bitcoin 'goes' (and as I've said a million times, I consider that to be a huge 'if') and if one is just interested in increasing one's net worth, it won't really matter whether one has 200 BTC, 2000 BTC, 20,000 BTC or 200,000 BTC.  One will be stupidly 'rich' in any case.  So I personally don't see any point in being overly heavy in BTC to achieve the goal of getting 'rich'.  YMMV.

(I think that) When one gets to a certain plane, the amount of USD or gold or Bitcoin one controls means little in relation to 'wealth'.  'Wealth', in my opinion, means having the ability to control and shape events on a grand scale.  Gates, Buffet, Bernanke, and Obama are all very 'wealthy' men...they just came to their wealth through different paths, and the wealth that they enjoy is variably transient in that it will subside for the latter two more readily than it will for the former two by virtue of the differences in the backing stores that these parties maintain.

The reason to obtain many thousands of Bitcoin would be to be able to control and shape events in the Bitcoin economy in case that Bitcoin takes off (without needing to be able to write code that people like.)  Having that ability is worth only so much to me in terms of opportunity cost.  Again (and to all readers) 'YMMV'.

[miscreanity]

The reason to obtain many thousands of Bitcoin would be to be able to control and shape events in the Bitcoin economy in case that Bitcoin takes off (without needing to be able to write code that people like.)  Having that ability is worth only so much to me in terms of opportunity cost.  Again (and to all readers) 'YMMV'.

That sounds an awful lot like the "love of money" instead of money as a useful tool. Controlling the direction of Bitcoin for its own sake would be futile because it depends on so much for its existence.

Any form of money facilitates commerce, trade, projects, etc. I view becoming a "Bitcoin Billionaire" as a means to furthering other avenues of progress in science, engineering, and medicine - not necessarily the Bitcoin system.

If you were suggesting that these are all things within the Bitcoin economy, great

[tvbcof]

The reason to obtain many thousands of Bitcoin would be to be able to control and shape events in the Bitcoin economy in case that Bitcoin takes off (without needing to be able to write code that people like.)  Having that ability is worth only so much to me in terms of opportunity cost.  Again (and to all readers) 'YMMV'.

That sounds an awful lot like the "love of money" instead of money as a useful tool. Controlling the direction of Bitcoin for its own sake would be futile because it depends on so much for its existence.

Any form of money facilitates commerce, trade, projects, etc. I view becoming a "Bitcoin Billionaire" as a means to furthering other avenues of progress in science, engineering, and medicine - not necessarily the Bitcoin system.

If you were suggesting that these are all things within the Bitcoin economy, great

I suggest, as you have, that like most economies the Bitcoin economy is highly complex.  Someone who would wish to manipulate it's direction could have that desire for all kinds of reasons.  I have at least fooled myself into thinking that the direction(s) I would like to see it go are generally advantageous to 'the 99%' (for lack of a better description.)  I believe I would trade a total personal loss of my position if it meant that these dreams are facilitated, but I would never know unless I had to make the choice and it is very unlikely that I ever will.

---

On a totally different tangent, you might remember our discussions about the legal ramifications of the MF Global debacle.  Somewhere else in at least one of my 1000 posts I mentioned hearing that in the case of a bankruptcy, derivatives positions take priority over all other creditors.  (I believe I heard that from Denninger at market-ticker.org who has an uncanny ability to find interesting tidbits of info early...and can apparently set up a DNS server to boot.)

You may be interested in this recent Lyster show, particularly at around the 15 or 16 minute mark:

  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uv_ERsZRnkw

[bitcool]

“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” - Mark Twain

Gold is a common enough part of the holdings of larger financial institutions, hedge funds, etc these days that when there is a significant need for liquidity, it goes on the block.  It would not surprise me to see a transient decline in the price of gold (particularly paper gold) in the event of a need for liquidity, and we've seen this phenomenon from time to time in recent years.  They've never bothered me much.  There seem to be enough buyers these days that the price recovers surprisingly quickly.

+1.
I still miss the days when paper silver dropped from $20 to $9, the best bullion deal I could find was around $12. I backed up my semi..... 

i bought all my silver btwn $9 and $12 too!  brilliant minds think alike!  can't wait to do it again!

Cyph: I am really interested to know how you got your $9 physical, when paper and physical markets disconnected, all dealers were asking at least $2~3 premiums.....
your trades sound TGTBT

[cypherdoc]

“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” - Mark Twain

Gold is a common enough part of the holdings of larger financial institutions, hedge funds, etc these days that when there is a significant need for liquidity, it goes on the block.  It would not surprise me to see a transient decline in the price of gold (particularly paper gold) in the event of a need for liquidity, and we've seen this phenomenon from time to time in recent years.  They've never bothered me much.  There seem to be enough buyers these days that the price recovers surprisingly quickly.

+1.
I still miss the days when paper silver dropped from $20 to $9, the best bullion deal I could find was around $12. I backed up my semi.....  

i bought all my silver btwn $9 and $12 too!  brilliant minds think alike!  can't wait to do it again!

Cyph: I am really interested to know how you got your $9 physical, when paper and physical markets disconnected, all dealers were asking at least $2~3 premiums.....
your trades sound TGTBT

i was just going to write a big long response to your lazy ass accusation but i think this is better.  while tvbcof considers alot of posts by me a liability, i consider it an asset, as i can easily point back in time to prove what i say.  these are in chronological order top to bottom.  remember silver topped 4/28/11:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5540.msg82056#msg82056

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5540.msg82062#msg82062

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=6202.msg93588#msg93588

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=6452.msg96613#msg96613

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=6322.msg99806#msg99806

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=6322.msg99815#msg99815

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=7891.msg116808#msg116808

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=7891.msg116814#msg116814

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=8845.msg130768#msg130768

[tvbcof]

i was just going to write a big long response to your lazy ass accusation but i think this is better.  while tvbcof considers alot of posts by me a liability, i consider it an asset, as i can easily point back in time to prove what i say.  these are in chronological order top to bottom.  remember silver topped 4/28/11:

...list of posts...

Pretty good chrono.  I'm glad I never called you a liar, though I will admit that I had some questions personally about some of your statements.

I don't think it's apt to characterize your post or really any posts as 'assets' or 'liabilities'.  As someone who holds tightly to my PM position at this time and sees no fundamental reason for PM's to fail in the near, mid, or really even near-distant future, I find the subject of this thread irritating.  I find it especially annoying when anyone asserts certain future events as givens since nobody has a crystal ball, and I think that you do that all the time.  I also feel that you tend to cherry-pick certain events and/or 'call black white' to make points but have no proof (or interest in the tedious task of generating it.)  I feel that many 'cycles disciples ' do the same thing.  All these things irritate me, but that's basically my problem.  From time to time I cannot resist fighting fire with fire.  Nothing personal of course...it's all in good fun.

This thread has proven fruitful in teasing out interesting viewpoints, philosophies, pointers, etc on a lot of peoples parts.  That's a good thing in my book.

[miscreanity]

On a totally different tangent, you might remember our discussions about the legal ramifications of the MF Global debacle.  Somewhere else in at least one of my 1000 posts I mentioned hearing that in the case of a bankruptcy, derivatives positions take priority over all other creditors.  (I believe I heard that from Denninger at market-ticker.org who has an uncanny ability to find interesting tidbits of info early...and can apparently set up a DNS server to boot.)

You may be interested in this recent Lyster show, particularly at around the 15 or 16 minute mark:

  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uv_ERsZRnkw

I have trouble watching any of her shows - the only things I remember after half an hour are her lips & legs...

In all seriousness, yes - virtually every piece of bank-sponsored legislation fully favours the banks themselves and has an eventual counter-productive result of pushing clients away; this bit regarding derivative holder priority is no different. What's changed from past decades of clients (esp. high net worth ones) putting up with this progressive encroachment is that they're finally deciding that the risk (now exceeding 100% loss of capital because not only is can funds me lost, but punitive legal measures can follow in addition to having lost everything in the first place!) of participating in a system where the rules are so thoroughly stacked against them is too great in respect to the potential return.

[miscreanity]

It is disturbing to watch the dollar index struggling to maintain footing above 80. The elastic range of prices resulting from remaining market supply & demand outside of the artificial HFT & market maker machinations is at a far outer threshold.

If the dollar abruptly rockets 100-200 basis points and does not immediately come crashing back down, that will signal that the US dollar hegemony has separated from the global economy. In effect, the worldwide economic fiat structure will have been drawn & quartered by the USD, Euro, and Yuan.



Any value of the USD would then have no bearing on reality outside of domestic usage. The Euro and Yuan are becoming more tightly coupled with each other (and gold) than the dollar.

In the following clip, the Euro & Yuan are the crew, the ship is gold (Bitcoin would be a composite hull, and submersible), and the US dollar is the man overboard with the downed mast:

Master and Commander - Man Overboard

[bitcool]

i was just going to write a big long response to your lazy ass accusation but i think this is better.  while tvbcof considers alot of posts by me a liability, i consider it an asset, as i can easily point back in time to prove what i say.  these are in chronological order top to bottom.  remember silver topped 4/28/11:

Cyph: Yes, I do have a big fat lazy ass and I didn't research all the message you posted before.  In these posts you indicated it was accumulated much early on its way up.  That's entirely possible.

By just reading your previous post, it's easy to think you bought your physicals during the "big dip" with the cost of $9~$12; There was a way to do it (besides taking delivery of futures contract), but very few people did it. So I wasn't really accusing you of lying.   

[cypherdoc]

i was just going to write a big long response to your lazy ass accusation but i think this is better.  while tvbcof considers alot of posts by me a liability, i consider it an asset, as i can easily point back in time to prove what i say.  these are in chronological order top to bottom.  remember silver topped 4/28/11:

Cyph: Yes, I do have a big fat lazy ass and I didn't research all the message you posted before.  In these posts you indicated it was accumulated much early on its way up.  That's entirely possible.

By just reading your previous post, it's easy to think you bought your physicals during the "big dip" with the cost of $9~$12; There was a way to do it (besides taking delivery of futures contract), but very few people did it. So I wasn't really accusing you of lying.   

ok, then we're cool on that.  all my buying and selling was done here at my local coin dealer.  he's very reputable and we check Kitco on his internet connection before every buy or sell.  yeah, he charges a premium  but i honestly don't remember what it was that long ago.  i DO remember him nailing me btwn 3-4% when i sold last year which was outrageous but i wanted to sell right away near the top and he knew he had me by the balls.  he had me fill out a form with all my personal data and mailed me a 1099 towards the beginning of the year upon which i'll have to pay 50% regular income tax on the profits.  THAT was an eye opener.