Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[miscreanity]

It could downtrend for the rest of the year, I don't see it. I think something will catalyze the market and we will have a nice 2nd half or last quarter of 2012, but I could be wrong.

hmmmm...

Looks like agreement: A ‘Lehman moment' will ensure gold and silver will soar again

[miscreanity]

"We will deal with next quarter, Monday".

Some nearly unbelievable charts from GGR.





The banks that have been exerting such phenomenal short pressure are now almost netted out to a flat position in silver. It's speculators and managed money in overextended short positions. Shorts supply the product to the longs, so where will these specs and MM shorts get their supply from if the price rises? Unlike the bullion banks, they don't control warehouses storing hypothecated gold and silver. The same rules for hedging that allowed the banks to naked short also don't apply.

These shorts will be squeezed, resulting in enormous paper losses at best, and forking over rapidly appreciating physical metal at worst. Guess who will be buying? That's right: exactly those banks that have destroyed the markets with their illegitimate short positions which are no longer a threat to the banks' existence.

Over the next few months, we will witness an historic bloodbath, even if there is an initial dip during July. If you're still short during any kind of bank holiday, your losses will be potentially unlimited and you could effectively be murdered financially. Even if you're long, hypothecation can strip you of your assets until any profit is void. Leveraged longs more so.

Cypherdoc is great at picking corners, but it's a guaranteed loss if the corner is frozen. I would close out at a profit while I could; the risk is too great when the rules are against you. Stick with Bitcoin & phyzzz.

[cypherdoc]

Friday's action in pm's certainly should make everyone sit up and listen including me.  I also think we are at a historic turning point in markets.  the question is which direction.  i still think deflation is the primary force in action and will take all markets down and very soon.  

just b/c there is a large short position in pm's does not mean the next move is up.  in fact, i remember quite clearly at the top of the stock market in Oct 07 when the Dow was at it's peak of 14K+, short positions in stocks were at extreme HIGHS.  the bulls kept saying this was a contrary indicator and fuel for the next leg up; instead the market did indeed collapse and the shorts were right including myself.  it was a historic opportunity to make money real fast and that i did.  the situation today reminds me of back then.

i have in place a working theory and cycle count for gold that i've outlined for my subs since i started the service in April that has so far worked out perfectly and i will be reviewing this Sunday night in the newsletter.  i'm actually playing for the "collapse" i've been calling for as silver did indeed poke its head below the Dec lows on Thursday which i still think is an ominous sign and has the potential to send pm's into a death spiral.  

however, if somehow pm's can continue to reverse themselves higher in the next few weeks, i won't be a fool and stand in the way.  this coming week promises to be exciting that's for sure.

[Stephen Gornick]

Chart Date Range - December 1, 2011 through June 30, 2012  (cherry picked   )

BTC/Gold - How much gold (ounces) a bitcoin will buy. (Range: 0.0016 ounces to 0.0044 ounces)



BTC/Silver - How much silver (ounces) a bitcoin will buy. (Range: 0.0843 ounces to 0.2532 ounces)



BTC/Crude - How much crude oil (barrels) a bitcoin will buy. (Range: 0.0272 barrels to 0.0856 barrels)



Over the same period:

 - BTC/USD (Mt. Gox, 24 hour high): High: $7.22
 - BTC/USD (Mt. Gox, 24 hour low): Low $2.61
 - BTC/USD (Mt. Gox, 24 hour weighted average): Low $2.75, High: $7.05
 - BTC/EUR (Mt. Gox, closing): Low: €2.0626, High: €5.5000

 - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHJuUE1mUkFxa3A0eHBDQkxZLVVFZmc

[silverbox]

Gold seems to be ramping nicely today.

[GeniuSxBoY]

Translation:

The value of our dollar seems to be descending nicely today.

[SkRRJyTC]

Translation:

The value of our dollar seems to be descending nicely today.

Gold is up 1.45% at the moment
Silver is up 3.13% at the moment
USD is down 0.1% at the moment

Good try though...

[silverbox]

gold is falling like a metal bar right now... freeeee falll


(i hold some gold/silver)

Big Ben will fix that shortly

[cypherdoc]

How many CB's cut rates today and pm's still can't get it up?

[bitcool]

How many CB's cut rates today and pm's still can't get it up?

Actually, the new paradigm is, the more CBs cut rate, the more PM prices fall.

It's a wonderful world out there, isn't it? 

[miscreanity]

The other CBs are easing, just as I said they would, the more they ease the less pressure there is for QE3 from the Fed.

It puts more pressure on the Fed, not less. If the rest of the world eases, the US will head into the kind of austerity consequences seen in Europe.

How many CB's cut rates today and pm's still can't get it up?

Actually, the new paradigm is, the more CBs cut rate, the more PM prices fall.

It's a wonderful world out there, isn't it? 

The more PM prices fall—against the USD.

As above, the pressure to limit painful consequences increases. The best that can do is tread water within a range, not collapse PM prices. Over the past few trading days, gold and the USD have moved in tandem, and significant rises in the dollar have not caused equivalent magnitude declines in gold or silver. In fact, copper and platinum have continued rising; palladium is the stagnant laggard for now.

[miscreanity]

The reason for that is that value is flowing from currencies that are being eased into PMs and USD (and US equities). That will continue as long as CBs besides the Fed continue to ease, and it gives the Fed more 'dry powder' the longer they can hold out.

True, but that endurance can be largely for naught when the powder is becoming useless. As the world rejects the dollar, its value will mainly be acknowledged domestically - internationally, not so much.

Sinclair pointed out that the sharks are turning on each other, and the US is a very prominent, very weakened target.

[cypherdoc]

who was the dummy who did this?  BUY into a suboptimal NFP number of 80K?  this is an example of the absurd counterintuitive reasoning that is pervasive at the end of bull markets.

[bitcool]

who was the dummy who did this?  BUY into a suboptimal NFP number of 80K?  this is an example of the absurd counterintuitive reasoning that is pervasive at the end of bull markets.

huh?
relax
man.

Is it
the beginning of the end

or
the end of the beginning?

that is the question.

[cypherdoc]

who was the dummy who did this?  BUY into a suboptimal NFP number of 80K?  this is an example of the absurd counterintuitive reasoning that is pervasive at the end of bull markets.

huh?
relax
man.

Is it
the beginning of the end

or
the end of the beginning?

that is the question.

we're about to enter a recession/depression, the euro is about to blow apart, Asia is in the tank, pm's have declined for over a year, and all you have to say is "relax"?

where's my USD failure?  this is a one year chart which is good enough for trading for most people's time horizons and all i see is a line going from the bottom left of the chart to the upper right:

[bitcool]

we're about to enter a recession/depression, the euro is about to blow apart, Asia is in the tank, pm's have declined for over a year, and all you have to say is "relax"?

where's my USD failure?  this is a one year chart which is good enough for trading for most people's time horizons and all i see is a line going from the bottom left of the chart to the upper right:

I gave my trust to metals as a saving media regardless of its fiat exchange rate, because a) I abhor Wall Street  swindlers and money changers, and b) I refuse to play the rigged games. It's a moral thing (and a religion thing as you've said

I asked you to relax because I sensed a lot of emotion in your message. If everything is moving toward the direction you predicted, shouldn't you just relax and enjoy the ride? 

After all the sky won't fall, just like the world didn't end in 2008, or 1929.

[cypherdoc]

we're about to enter a recession/depression, the euro is about to blow apart, Asia is in the tank, pm's have declined for over a year, and all you have to say is "relax"?

where's my USD failure?  this is a one year chart which is good enough for trading for most people's time horizons and all i see is a line going from the bottom left of the chart to the upper right:

I gave my trust to metals as a saving media regardless of its fiat exchange rate, because a) I abhor Wall Street  swindlers and money changers, and b) I refuse to play the rigged games. It's a moral thing (and a religion thing as you've said

I asked you to relax because I sensed a lot of emotion in your message. If everything is moving toward the direction you predicted, shouldn't you just relax and enjoy the ride? 

After all the sky won't fall, just like the world didn't end in 2008, or 1929.

well, as long as you admit it, i can't fault you for it.

good luck.

[bitcool]

we're about to enter a recession/depression, the euro is about to blow apart, Asia is in the tank, pm's have declined for over a year, and all you have to say is "relax"?

where's my USD failure?  this is a one year chart which is good enough for trading for most people's time horizons and all i see is a line going from the bottom left of the chart to the upper right:

I gave my trust to metals as a saving media regardless of its fiat exchange rate, because a) I abhor Wall Street  swindlers and money changers, and b) I refuse to play the rigged games. It's a moral thing (and a religion thing as you've said

I asked you to relax because I sensed a lot of emotion in your message. If everything is moving toward the direction you predicted, shouldn't you just relax and enjoy the ride? 

After all the sky won't fall, just like the world didn't end in 2008, or 1929.

well, as long as you admit it, i can't fault you for it.

good luck.

I have been very lucky... and good luck to you too.

[thezerg]

cypherdoc its the mast on a sinking ship; everybody is trying to climb it

[miscreanity]

cypherdoc its the mast on a sinking ship; everybody is trying to climb it

I'm guessing he's "sitting up and taking notice" of gold again. I have to wonder how often that kind of flip-flopping will occur. Easing is taking place everywhere, yet it isn't going to happen in the US? Right.

It's supposed to be an emotional roller coaster, because price is the only thing most people look at and they'll be too fearful to make their own decisions because of that. So while the banks net out the last of their shorts, this is exactly the kind of wide ranging action to be expected.

Another good post from TF. Pay attention to the part with the Wargames reference about the only winning move...

Oh, and how will shattering confidence in currencies do anything to encourage their use? The answer is that it won't - the rush to protect wealth by owning real assets is building. Once again, that path will be to physical items including gold and silver, then a rise in Bitcoin as people start to understand the difference between the contemporary view of digital currencies associated with banks and that of cryptocurrencies.

I see gold taking off first, then Bitcoin. That means the large relative jumps in BTC value to date will be nothing compared to what we'll see in the next few years.