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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 2032126 times)
cypherdoc (OP)
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July 25, 2014, 12:22:15 AM
 #9841

nice support @ 600.

bears need to push this down below 550 to get any traction going.  looks bleak; for them.
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Even in the event that an attacker gains more than 50% of the network's computational power, only transactions sent by the attacker could be reversed or double-spent. The network would not be destroyed.
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cypherdoc (OP)
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July 25, 2014, 03:33:48 AM
 #9842

Disrupting payments, Africa

http://recode.net/2014/07/24/disrupting-payments-africa-style/
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July 25, 2014, 04:55:55 AM
 #9843


that article reminded me of one of my 1st forum posts:  
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5400.msg93981#msg93981
inspired by this bk: http://www.amazon.com/The-SmartPhone-Wallet-Understanding-Disruption/dp/1456429973

those were some of my inspirations that got me into Bitcoin in early 2011.
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July 25, 2014, 05:08:29 AM
 #9844

"The blockchain may only ever be applicable to Bitcoin as Money."-cypherdoc

The new Ethereum release and funding is going to be a good test of my theory.  From just over 50% confidence, I've moved it to just over 60% after the NYDFS regs.  I say this b/c of the onerous identification mechanisms the regs have introduced.  Because Vitalik and company are well known and trackable, I think they could become targets very soon by the SEC or some such regulatory agency for selling securities unregulated.  With any regulatory attack will also come a freezing of their ether and USD funding.  Mind you, I don't wish this on them at all; it's just a fact.  As I've been saying, Satoshi by luck, design and timing, created a set of conditions that may never be reproducible.  His anonymity being one of the most critical along with his privacy in boot strapping Bitcoin via mining in the early stages.  I also don't see where Ethereum's mining power is going to come from.  There aren't going to be many miners willing to secure stocks, bonds, smart contracts, or whatever, I think.

We'll see.

i doubt etherum will even grow enough to tickle the regulation tyrants.



not so optimistic eh ^^

one of the real dangers to the Ethereum project is Vitalik's attitude of which i've highlighted several times throughout this thread over the last 8 mo or so.  he doesn't understand Bitcoin and the economic incentives built into it.

Amir has said that a coder's philosophy is built into their software.  what will become of Ethereum?

http://www.marc.cn/2014/07/the-ethereum-hype.html
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July 25, 2014, 10:24:37 AM
 #9845

Look, Vitalik seems like a legit and smart guy to me, but truth be told, the network effect of Bitcoin is just WAY TOO STRONG. We have legit celebs now talking about it on twitter, Snopp Dogg is accepting BTC for his album and Ashton Kutcher is into BTC a lot. Network effect is about to hit critical mass. What chances, possibly, has Etherum to hit such landmarks? How can another coin have the solid infrastructure of Bitcoin ever again? Every coin will get constantly compared with Bitcoin, and bam, that means Bitcoin gets mentioned in every single article about new coins, which makes Bitcoin even bigger. This shit cannot be stopped.

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July 25, 2014, 10:53:10 AM
 #9846

In regards to the entire cryptocurrency space,

"Most investors will lose money despite a great investment staring them in the face" - cypherdoc
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July 25, 2014, 12:23:22 PM
 #9847

In regards to the entire cryptocurrency space,

"Most investors will lose money despite a great investment staring them in the face" - cypherdoc

Could you elaborate?

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July 25, 2014, 06:38:43 PM
 #9848

In regards to the entire cryptocurrency space,

"Most investors will lose money despite a great investment staring them in the face" - cypherdoc

Could you elaborate?

I guess he means people will lose money by investing in altcoins instead of simply buy bitcoins?

Some buy high and sell low, holding requires understanding and insight.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
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July 25, 2014, 07:37:45 PM
 #9849

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/492755366716145664

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/492755188508528640
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July 25, 2014, 08:18:50 PM
 #9850

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/492765863427452929
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July 25, 2014, 09:02:16 PM
 #9851

In regards to the entire cryptocurrency space,

"Most investors will lose money despite a great investment staring them in the face" - cypherdoc

Could you elaborate?

He probably means:

1. People will see Bitcoin and crypto currency and wont invest. The dollar and other fiat collapses in value...and poof.

2. those who end up buying bit coin and alt coins will do so at the peaks when news/media attention is at its peak. Just to to then sell emotionally when capitulation happens.

3. People will buy bitcoin or alt coins and then invest blindly into some hardware/asic/bs-company or other related business and have their coins never returned.

There are many pitfalls for the uneducated in this space.

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July 25, 2014, 09:07:30 PM
 #9852

Having watched the gold market pretty closely for the last 10+ years, the Fed has had a pattern of pre-empting bad news by pushing the price lower in the days before any shocks happen so that when the news comes out and the price spikes, overall things stay pretty even. This week has been a bad news week anyway (more plane crashes, Ebola, Gaza, Ukraine etc) and even though it looks like gold will end the week back over $1300, I'm guessing the powers that be are seriously worried about something extra nasty happening over the weekend. Not that things aren't bad enough already. 
cypherdoc (OP)
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July 25, 2014, 09:29:07 PM
 #9853

Classic

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July 25, 2014, 10:23:10 PM
 #9854

How can those in the know get their claws on all the gold with a managed crash of the paper gold?

I don't know the details of the paper gold market, so please fill in the blanks (or say I am wrong). Basically, some company writes contracts to sell gold (naked), then to buy those contracts back in the future for the price of the gold at that future time. This in effect expands the gold in circulation and depresses the price of gold. The company earns on fees, plus they are able to use the proceeds of the sale to trade profitably on other assets in the mean time. At all times they supposedly have the resources to fullfill all the contracts. So the first contracts they sold at 1700, now they are 1300, so the company should be solid.

If this is to be unwound orderly, presumably the gold price would rise, and they may or may not be able to fullfill all contracts, anyway they will not earn much.

So the plan is to sell the company, which is a going concern with positive equity, maybe after a power sale of paper gold to depress the price even further, and wait for a point in time when all analysts are negative on the future value of gold. Then, using the proceeds of the sale to buy physical gold. The gold price would rise, and the paper gold company goes bankrupt, the paper gold investors (the last ones) loose. Paper gold market collapses (the great divorce), and the original owners of the paper gold company has a hefty stash of physical gold. (Then they can do the same again after some time).

cypherdoc?


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July 26, 2014, 12:01:29 AM
 #9855

How can those in the know get their claws on all the gold with a managed crash of the paper gold?

I don't know the details of the paper gold market, so please fill in the blanks (or say I am wrong). Basically, some company writes contracts to sell gold (naked), then to buy those contracts back in the future for the price of the gold at that future time. This in effect expands the gold in circulation and depresses the price of gold. The company earns on fees, plus they are able to use the proceeds of the sale to trade profitably on other assets in the mean time. At all times they supposedly have the resources to fullfill all the contracts. So the first contracts they sold at 1700, now they are 1300, so the company should be solid.

If this is to be unwound orderly, presumably the gold price would rise, and they may or may not be able to fullfill all contracts, anyway they will not earn much.

So the plan is to sell the company, which is a going concern with positive equity, maybe after a power sale of paper gold to depress the price even further, and wait for a point in time when all analysts are negative on the future value of gold. Then, using the proceeds of the sale to buy physical gold. The gold price would rise, and the paper gold company goes bankrupt, the paper gold investors (the last ones) loose. Paper gold market collapses (the great divorce), and the original owners of the paper gold company has a hefty stash of physical gold. (Then they can do the same again after some time).

cypherdoc?




that's a pretty hair brained scheme to pull off, even for a central bank or primary dealer.  certainly not for any smaller company to do reliably. what you propose is a company taking triple the risk to manipulate; first by trying to drive down the price thru naked shorting (when ultimately they believe the price is going to rise), selling a company that is loaded with derivatives,  then buying back depressed gold prices after they have been driven down (assuming the price will go back up).  wtf? why not just buy gold outright on dips to eliminate all that need for manipulation and risk?

and that all assumes they know ahead of time which way prices are supposed to go.
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July 26, 2014, 12:46:58 AM
 #9856

the gold price top @1923 back in Sept 2011 and the struggle to hold on since then is telling.  the collapse is near.

K
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July 26, 2014, 01:29:40 AM
 #9857

"that's a pretty hair brained scheme to pull off, even for a central bank or primary dealer.  certainly not for any smaller company to do reliably. what you propose is a company taking triple the risk to manipulate; first by trying to drive down the price thru naked shorting (when ultimately they believe the price is going to rise), selling a company that is loaded with derivatives,  then buying back depressed gold prices after they have been driven down (assuming the price will go back up).  wtf? why not just buy gold outright on dips to eliminate all that need for manipulation and risk?

and that all assumes they know ahead of time which way prices are supposed to go."

Agreed. I can't see anyone aside from the central and bullion banks having the money or balls to carry out such operations, and way too risky for any company with shareholders. Someone dumped $1B in one hit on wednesday and two days later the gold price was back to within a couple of dollars so you would need really deep pockets to make a dent let alone a killing. OTOH if you were just interested in profit, a single entity (Russian Oligarch, Oil sheik) could conceivably buy up a huge part of the silver market and then demand delivery of physical. The Hunt brothers pulled that trick in 1979(?) and sent the price of silver from $6 up to ~$50, which would probably equate to $250+ per ounce in today's dollars. That would also work very well in the BTC market if all you wanted was a short term pump and dump profit.
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July 26, 2014, 01:49:37 AM
 #9858

"that's a pretty hair brained scheme to pull off, even for a central bank or primary dealer.  certainly not for any smaller company to do reliably. what you propose is a company taking triple the risk to manipulate; first by trying to drive down the price thru naked shorting (when ultimately they believe the price is going to rise), selling a company that is loaded with derivatives,  then buying back depressed gold prices after they have been driven down (assuming the price will go back up).  wtf? why not just buy gold outright on dips to eliminate all that need for manipulation and risk?

and that all assumes they know ahead of time which way prices are supposed to go."

Agreed. I can't see anyone aside from the central and bullion banks having the money or balls to carry out such operations, and way too risky for any company with shareholders. Someone dumped $1B in one hit on wednesday and two days later the gold price was back to within a couple of dollars so you would need really deep pockets to make a dent let alone a killing. OTOH if you were just interested in profit, a single entity (Russian Oligarch, Oil sheik) could conceivably buy up a huge part of the silver market and then demand delivery of physical. The Hunt brothers pulled that trick in 1979(?) and sent the price of silver from $6 up to ~$50, which would probably equate to $250+ per ounce in today's dollars. That would also work very well in the BTC market if all you wanted was a short term pump and dump profit.

I agree it could be difficult to manipulate the prices before a sale, but remember, the gold naked shorting in itself depresses the price because it expands the supply of gold+paper gold.

Any suggestion on how the ones writing the paper gold can profit from it (more than the fees)?
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July 26, 2014, 02:11:48 AM
 #9859


Any suggestion on how the ones writing the paper gold can profit from it (more than the fees)?


Depends if their motive is for profit or to manipulate the price for other reasons. Probably both. The market is way too murky for me to understand how it works. There was a pretty good article by Bud Conrad last year that went through some of the details so I'll defer to him

http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/physical-gold-vs-paper-gold-ultimate-disconnect
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July 26, 2014, 02:20:13 AM
 #9860

Interesting article by Phoenix research on ZH. How GDP is manipulated.

"One of the biggest games played by the bean counters in Washington in the US is the overstatement of GDP growth by understating inflation.

Consider this simple example. Let’s say that the US GDP grew by 10% last year. Now let’s say that inflation also grew by 10%. In this scenario, real inflation adjusted GDP growth was ZERO. However, announcing ZERO GDP growth is a major problem politically.

So what do the Feds do? They claim that inflation was just 8%, and BOOM you’ve got 2% GDP growth announced for a year in which real GDP growth was actually zero."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-25/based-non-massaged-data-us-back-recession

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