[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Gillette]

I wont comment on the probably of failure because I do not feel qualified to quantify it.

I will say that the longer the community continues to grow and development progress continues to be made the greater the chance of success.

Look up all the coins that were launched with a bitcointalk announcement last year around the same time as Monero.  Monero is doing better that 99% of them. Many thousands of coins have been launched over the last year. How many of those has a community as strong as ours?

Of those with a strong community how many are had a premine, instamine or fastmine? How many allow for private transactions at the protocol level without and form of centralized mixing?

Most coins now seem to be designed with a very short PoW period followed by a conversion to PoS to make the developers BTC quickly. Unfortunately this model does not have the proper incentives for lasting development or growing a community.

Monero is built to last. Lots of progress has been made but XMR prices are still lower than they were last summer. This is a wonderful thing for potential community members looking at Monero. New community members can buy Monero at prices lower than many early adopters did a year ago! However this period is unlikely to last much longer as emission is slowing and demand will soon far outweigh supply from the miners.

I think it is possible that the next month or two (before translations and worldwide marketing plans are ramped up and while less than 50% of XMR has been mined) may be the last opportunity to buy Monero at anywhere near these price levels.

Of course this is just my opinion and I could be completely wrong. I look at many coins quite carefully. There are none that I am nearly excited about as Monero.

I tend to agree with you.
The emission looks now great and the chart and supply of coins in exchanges is pretty scarce which makes the coin potentially very explosive even if we get a moderate amount of new money into Monero.

However, if Monero takes off, it is cheap buy even for 0.50 BTC.

Cheap at .5 BTC? So you expect XMR to reach BTC parity?

Even more.
I am waiting here once Risto makes calculations on how many XMR can each person own in the world in our generation even if the coin is shared equally (very unlike scenario - usually there are a few big guys, the elite, and the rest are small peasants).

I hope Risto will make a realistic calculation and will not forget that except of XMR there are several good coins on the market that world population will use.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Interesting. Who owns this site?

I believe it is RP

I don't think so.

https://who.is/whois/moneroinvest.com

[luigi1111]

Interesting. Who owns this site?

I believe it is RP

I don't think so.

https://who.is/whois/moneroinvest.com

He was talking about: https://who.is/whois/moneroinvestment.com

[DaveyJones]

Interesting. Who owns this site?

I believe it is RP

I don't think so.

https://who.is/whois/moneroinvest.com

He was talking about: https://who.is/whois/moneroinvestment.com

Well its also based in Estonia like Malla .... who knows

[iCEBREAKER]

Figured some monero-aholics would be interested in this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1123066.msg11881938#msg11881938

"Smoothie's Hawaiian Property

Tentative payment methods: BITCOIN, LITECOIN, MONERO, GOLD, SILVER"

Good choices!  Welcome to Monero Mountain!



Enjoy your assimilation into our wild & free collective!   

[dEBRUYNE]

Interesting. Who owns this site?

I believe it is RP

I don't think so.

https://who.is/whois/moneroinvest.com

He was talking about: https://who.is/whois/moneroinvestment.com

Well its also based in Estonia like Malla .... who knows

It's risto's website:

Can I ask you which type of future events you imagine are most like to grow the number of users and/or impact the distribution the most?

For example how do you think the launch of Crypto Kingdom will change this?

What about an Android wallet, official GUI or increased merchant adoption?

(I don't believe we even have 25000 owners right now. That much could be the total number of people exposed to XMR but many of them are at zero balance.)

Price will rise as money enters in. We have the moneroinvestment.com site, which will soon be polished for launch and will target midclass people who are interested in buying 10-100k XMR with fiat. Even a few of these guys can raise the price significantly.

CK has potential to absolutely explode XMR. At present, about 1% of XMR is already in CK account, so if we get "even" 100,000 new players, the price will have to go up by 10x to accommodate the equivalent new buying. Of course not every game makes it big, so this is more speculative than the 'new investors' case, which is clear as sky, only variable is timing.

I don't think the wallets or merchants matter that much, but I am pretty alone with this opinion, so perhaps they do

[smooth]

Is there any news of the GUI? Haven't heard about this in months, but admittedly, I didn't follow this thread as close as I used to do...  

There are various pieces that are needed as prerequisites for the GUI including improving the core APIs. That work has been steadily progressing (mostly by oranjuice), but doesn't have a high degree of visibility. It is the kind of nuts-and-bolts work that is absolutely necessary to turn the half-finished prototype we started with into a maintainable project that can thrive for many years.

Getting the DB into a release-ready state has also been considered an effective prerequisite for a useful GUI as well since very few people would ever use a GUI with multi gigabyte RAM requirements (on servers it is less of an issue but there people tend to be happy with cli or even prefer it).

My expectation is that once the DB is released there will start to be much more visible progress on the GUI.

[medusa13]

https://xstock.io/

is this the fiat exchange the people have been talking about?

moneroinvestment.com recommends this, but there is no xmr market there yet  

what is it

[newb4now]

https://xstock.io/

is this the fiat exchange the people have been talking about?

moneroinvestment.com recommends this, but there is no xmr market there yet 

what is it

I see XMR mentioned here:
https://xstock.io/wiki

[medusa13]

could it be....our new...home? will sure test it once its really up and running. lets see, i am definetely curious

still it seems somehow suspicious to me...

2% fee? sounds good to me at least

X-Stock charges 2% fee on every trade.

[TrueCryptonaire]

https://xstock.io/

is this the fiat exchange the people have been talking about?

moneroinvestment.com recommends this, but there is no xmr market there yet  

what is it

The only problem I see there is this is one more multicurrency exchange.

[k99]

Bitsquare once its released (in a few weeks beta starts) will support Bitcoin - Monero exchange as well. It is primary a decentralized Bitcoin - Fiat exchange but was recently extended to support altcoins as well.
IN that video you can see the way how its integrated:
https://bitsquare.io/blog/bitsquare-v0-4-payment-methods-and-arbitrtion-system/

[Melbustus]

Where can I find status of Monero development? Things like:

1) How many "core" devs are working on it, and who they are (handles, plus real-names/social-media where public)?
2) Roughly how much time per week/month these devs are spending on it.
3) What the dev roadmap is.
4) What the dev roadmap *was*, and were the milestones hit on-target.

^ You know, basic project management stuff. Looking at git commits only gives hints as to most of this.

pa's answer was pretty helpful on 1, 3, and 4. 4 may be a bit unsatisfying (I find it so) but given that we have to work with very unpredictable resources it is difficult to ever have timed milestones. So we never have and can't measure against them. That's just how it is.

As far as 2, it isn't formally tracked, but it's a reasonably significant amount of time for a mostly-unfunded open source project when you combine across the core team, the major development contributors, and the research group. I would estimate very roughly 2-3 full time equivalents  (varies somewhat unpredictably over time though), and by that I mean just software development and testing, and work on research reports, not the work we put into communications, third party support, etc.

Smooth - would you estimate that the bolded part is still roughly accurate?

[smooth]

Where can I find status of Monero development? Things like:

1) How many "core" devs are working on it, and who they are (handles, plus real-names/social-media where public)?
2) Roughly how much time per week/month these devs are spending on it.
3) What the dev roadmap is.
4) What the dev roadmap *was*, and were the milestones hit on-target.

^ You know, basic project management stuff. Looking at git commits only gives hints as to most of this.

pa's answer was pretty helpful on 1, 3, and 4. 4 may be a bit unsatisfying (I find it so) but given that we have to work with very unpredictable resources it is difficult to ever have timed milestones. So we never have and can't measure against them. That's just how it is.

As far as 2, it isn't formally tracked, but it's a reasonably significant amount of time for a mostly-unfunded open source project when you combine across the core team, the major development contributors, and the research group. I would estimate very roughly 2-3 full time equivalents  (varies somewhat unpredictably over time though), and by that I mean just software development and testing, and work on research reports, not the work we put into communications, third party support, etc.

Smooth - would you estimate that the bolded part is still roughly accurate?

Yes I would say that is roughly accurate. There may be slightly less now, but I'm not positive of that because the effort is a bit more diffuse and some major in-progress work may not be so visible. For example, I really had no idea the amazing scope of Noodle Doodle's benchmarking, debugging, and optimizing effort until his recent commit (though I did know he was working on it).

There has been a bunch of work from the MRL on various crypto things including: strengthening anonymization both against combinatorial attacks and better hiding of amounts along the lines of Blockstream's CT, continued analysis of the problem of difficulty retargeting, and upgraded python implementations of more of the crypto.

On the C++ coding side we have NoodleDoodle's massive effort of course. MoneroMooo has been contributing more as well, mostly on a various wallet things (and his work will be now be funded for several months via the forum crowdfunding system), and let's not forget luigi1111's great work to define and implement integrated addresses. I know oranjuice is continuing to work on the API upgrade. I don't see commits (possibly I'm looking the wrong place) for it but he is regularly on #monero-dev discussing it.

So it is interesting that some people who previously put in a lot more work have been busy with other things and putting in less time recently, but others are now contributing to the development effort, and the overall effort fairly stable (that is also visible in the commit rate over the past 6-9 months, although that is an imperfect measure and doesn't include some things at all, such as most of the MRL work).

[TrueCryptonaire]

Looks like moneroinvestment.com is rising little by little.
Now it is important to spam it everywhere, hint mainstream media of this opportunity (I've heard that even paid articles to financial newspapers can be purchased - this should attract the fiat money hands to Monero).

[cAPSLOCK]

Looks like moneroinvestment.com is rising little by little.
Now it is important to spam it everywhere, hint mainstream media of this opportunity (I've heard that even paid articles to financial newspapers can be purchased - this should attract the fiat money hands to Monero).

First of all "spamming" is uncool.  You may not mean to use that word, but you did.  Do not spam this anywhere.

Especially since there are errors in it.

Paragraph 4 on main page:

If there is to be any kind of valuable usage for Monero’s in the future let alone realization of Monero’s full potential

The second use of an 's is correct.  The first is not.  For what it is worth I prefer the Anglicized version of the plural "Moneros" as opposed to the Esperanto "Moneroj".  I think the Esperanto NAME is cool... but I see no reason to use the language any further than that.  Kudos to the site creator.

http://moneroinvestment.com/?page_id=19  Final paragraph:

If you are careful you do not necessarily want to store your Moneros in the stock from which you bough them.

This is a good site and a good presentation of the real value of Monero as compared to the sort of anoncoin darkmarket representation that is often jumped to by BCT folks.

[Gillette]

Who`s selling 12k XMR (27 BTC value) on Polo?

[rpietila]

Even though there is no red all caps  UNDER CONSTRUCTION  all over, it does not change the fact. Don't share it until it's ready. (Buy XMR instead )

Looks like moneroinvestment.com is rising little by little.
Now it is important to spam it everywhere, hint mainstream media of this opportunity (I've heard that even paid articles to financial newspapers can be purchased - this should attract the fiat money hands to Monero).

First of all "spamming" is uncool.  You may not mean to use that word, but you did.  Do not spam this anywhere.

Especially since there are errors in it.

Paragraph 4 on main page:

If there is to be any kind of valuable usage for Monero’s in the future let alone realization of Monero’s full potential

The second use of an 's is correct.  The first is not.  For what it is worth I prefer the Anglicized version of the plural "Moneros" as opposed to the Esperanto "Moneroj".  I think the Esperanto NAME is cool... but I see no reason to use the language any further than that.  Kudos to the site creator.

http://moneroinvestment.com/?page_id=19  Final paragraph:

If you are careful you do not necessarily want to store your Moneros in the stock from which you bough them.

This is a good site and a good presentation of the real value of Monero as compared to the sort of anoncoin darkmarket representation that is often jumped to by BCT folks.

[OrientA]

Buying XMR is cheaper than mining directly for most people.I buy  XMR so that my money will go longer.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I am buying it but it is important to let the other people to buy it as well..
I do not want this to be only our coin but we want to embrace a lot of new adoption.

The site should be marketed (or spammed if you do not want to be politically correct) right (perhaps some google ads? send hints to mainstream media, get articles to big news papers - that could lead even a news story on TV - who knows).