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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3312366 times)
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XMRChina
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July 17, 2015, 03:27:24 AM
 #7121

Methinks XMR might (and probably will) "rise [like a] chikun" (as was chanted in the btc-e trollbox) like LTC ran from $1.11 to $48.48 in fall of 2013.  This will likely accelerate as BTC finishes the bottoming pattern and begins its next rally to $3-$10k BTC/USD.  XMR will be a greater "chikun" than LTC especially once GUI arrives and it grows widely adopted & utilized.

How confident are you? As confident as you were in June 2011 when you were similarly bullish on BTC?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=12156.msg169759#msg169759
Are you currently putting all your money into bitcoin?  If you say this, you show you believe it by your actions.  I am putting all my money into bitcoin - I see a possibility of $50-$100+ per coin this year.  Just think, once the "bankers" and hedge funds find out about this, we are going to the moon.  Once my bitcoins are $1,000+ I will be able to pay off my growing college loans and maybe get an apartment, and my first car Smiley
Great prediction and action in 2011.

Lets hope your XMR prediction comes true as well

One interesting thing about XMR is that it seems to have a relatively high percentage of BTC early adopters in the community including those who own few of any other alts rpietila.

It seems like the longer people have been around and the more educated they are the more they like Monero

No other anonymous currency in existence today has received as much attention from BTC core devs and early adopters. Probably because they realize the coinjoin based competition is not serious enough to warrant much attention

Nice find, and yes, good calls zhalox!   Cool

Those of us around in 2011 have seen this movie before.  We recognize the smell of nascent fundamental disruption on the cusp of breaking into the mainstream.  We are positively giddy to have an unheard of second chance to scoop up trainloads of The Next BitcoinTM for under a dollar.  Absent a ride back to 2010 in the TARDIS, cheap XMR is the next best thing.  Perhaps even better... Wink    Shocked

The deep background here is that most of us assumed mixing and other forms of obfuscation would suffice to anonymize Bitcoin and render it fungible (at the social level, of course all BTC are fungible in the protocol).

Upon learning this hope was a pipe dream, and chastising ourselves for being duped into accepting obscurity as a valid form of security, the race began for a 'dark' version of Bitcon.  Darkcoin benefited greatly in the fallout, despite it being a fraud at the implementation level and pure crap in the technical.

XMR was the breath of fresh air we'd been waiting for.  Finally, the next stage of Szaboshi's Master Plan To Free The Universe was here, now!  Yay.  The game was, once again, afoot (with Babylon on the defensive, and now more than ever at a profound, fundamental disadvantage as XMR enables defections previously impossible with BTC alone).

I hope that everyone who was not yet introduced to BTC in 2011 can be introduced to XMR soon. I will do my best to help that happen, with a particular focus on China fairly soon.

Translations seem to be coming along nicely and in multiple languages. Getmonero.org forums is getting a lot more active lately
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July 17, 2015, 12:42:26 PM
 #7122

Interesting tweet:

https://twitter.com/petertoddbtc/status/622022840330682368

Privacy matters, use Monero - A true untraceable cryptocurrency
Why Monero matters? http://weuse.cash/2016/03/05/bitcoiners-hedge-your-position/
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July 17, 2015, 04:21:03 PM
 #7123


Resisting the urge to go prance around in the Dash thread with all my might. Wink
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July 17, 2015, 04:59:13 PM
 #7124

Monero to the moon! This coin will probably increase in price in the next months. Thus, I'm going to start holding them today.

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Johnny Mnemonic
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July 17, 2015, 05:09:10 PM
 #7125

I'm seeing all the forum spam and FUD as an indication of upward price movement in the near term. The volume on Poloniex has been quite low, and the trolls are likely trying to suppress an inevitable surge. I predict their efforts will backfire.
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July 17, 2015, 05:40:17 PM
 #7126


Resisting the urge to go prance around in the Dash thread with all my might. Wink

No need. It is already taken care of https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.msg11904103#msg11904103

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
SmoothCurves
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July 17, 2015, 09:19:05 PM
 #7127

How many XMR would you say is a good amount to hold for the long term?

Option A) Minimum of 500

Option B) Minimum of 1,000

Option C) Minimum of 5,000
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July 17, 2015, 09:30:10 PM
 #7128

How many XMR would you say is a good amount to hold for the long term?

Option A) Minimum of 500

Option B) Minimum of 1,000

Option C) Minimum of 5,000

This really depends on your personal risk tolerance, net worth, current portfolio, age, etcetera. For some people buying 250 dollars of a speculative item like Monero is far more money than they can be comfortable with. For others buying $2,500 worth of it is not even a drop in their bucket. I believe some people have suggested converting a percentage of your Bitcoin holding. Or, if you don't hold Bitcoin then a percentage of your investment portfolio. The idea is to convert risk into wealth but this is about the highest type of risk you can take. From a speculative standpoint Monero is an extreme long shot. So considering these facts you have to make up your own mind.
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July 17, 2015, 09:47:52 PM
 #7129

I'm seeing all the forum spam and FUD as an indication of upward price movement in the near term. The volume on Poloniex has been quite low, and the trolls are likely trying to suppress an inevitable surge. I predict their efforts will backfire.

That very well could be, don't forget there was a guy in the trollbox last week that sold 20 BTC worth at 0.002. He claimed to have 80k XMR where that came from.

He said that he was selling because he could buy it lower. I didn't believe him at the time but here we are.


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July 17, 2015, 11:22:27 PM
 #7130


LOL rekt

https://twitter.com/petertoddbtc/status/622081863008436225

...and double rekt


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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
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"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  Adam Back 2014
Buy and sell XMR near you
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Buy XMR with fiat
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July 18, 2015, 12:20:08 AM
 #7131

How many XMR would you say is a good amount to hold for the long term?

Option A) Minimum of 500

Option B) Minimum of 1,000

Option C) Minimum of 5,000

this depends on what you want to achieve and what probabilities you assign to different scenario's AND how much you are able to invest and willing to loose. Design a selling plan and stick to it.

For example selling 10% of your remaining stash when the exchange rate doubles.
calculate in advance how much that would net you when the exchange rate reaches a certain point.
Set a goal, for example 2 million for the moment you decide to retire early (of you want that)
decide how fast you want your investment back. If you see that probablility for xmr doubling as very high, maybe invest double as what you want to keep long term and sell half of it if the exchange rate doubles the first time.
etc etc
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July 18, 2015, 12:29:24 AM
 #7132


Lol the dashtards seem  very butthurt about that ...
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July 18, 2015, 01:36:44 AM
 #7133


I retweeted this as well. I know I am not the only former ANC believer that has now moved on to XMR

Very impressed by the amount of recent development activity coming out of your camp

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July 18, 2015, 07:28:12 AM
 #7134

I'm seeing all the forum spam and FUD as an indication of upward price movement in the near term. The volume on Poloniex has been quite low, and the trolls are likely trying to suppress an inevitable surge. I predict their efforts will backfire.

That very well could be, don't forget there was a guy in the trollbox last week that sold 20 BTC worth at 0.002. He claimed to have 80k XMR where that came from.

He said that he was selling because he could buy it lower. I didn't believe him at the time but here we are.



That's playing foolish though. Selling to buy not even 10% lower in this market with this asset?

The speculators are doing a favor to the community as they give markets to the buyers when the price increases and there is more demand and they are giving markets for the dumpers.
10 % is a nice gain IMHO. Stock markets give you 5-6  % p.a. over long run (100 years or so) so 10 % within a couple weeks is quite good.
Indeed there was a shortage of short sellers (and still is, therefore the rates are at minimum they can go) so he had opportunity to act like a short seller and dump in order to rebuy lower.
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July 18, 2015, 11:13:32 AM
 #7135

It's playing with fire. You may be able to execute 10% quick shorts several times in a row, until you fail legendarily.

We have different investing styles. I don't play Russian Roulette but someone likes it, so...  Grin

HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
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July 18, 2015, 01:09:51 PM
 #7136

If mainbody emission is 2^64 tacoshi, how are the extra tail-end units accounted for without breaking the architecture/modulo/coinbase thingy?

Yes it is already accounted for in the code. Individual transactions won't be able to exceed 2^64 (and this is checked) without further changes but the total outstanding supply number is not used except to calculate the variable block rewards, which of course isn't needed once the rewards become fixed.

There may be changes needed in wallets to not use 64 bit math to calculate and display the total balance (once someone has a wallet containing >2^64 units, if that ever happens) but that is cosmetic not part of the protocol (balances don't exist at the protocol level only outputs).

#nolooseends #xmr Grin
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July 18, 2015, 02:15:11 PM
 #7137

When it comes to moneroinvestment.com site's probability table..
There is one major problem that increases Monero's risk and it is the tie to bitcoin. Let's say, Monero stays stable with bitcoin at 0.002 but bitcoin dumps to 20 usd each. It means, Monero costs 4 cents only despite the fact that it has been relatively stable.
Therefore I am calling a well functioning fiat-Monero-fiat markets to open and eliminate the bitcoin-risk there so that Risto can correct the probabilities there a little bit as now he has included the bitcoin risk into Monero.
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July 18, 2015, 02:27:28 PM
 #7138


I retweeted this as well. I know I am not the only former ANC believer that has now moved on to XMR

Very impressed by the amount of recent development activity coming out of your camp

Welcome. Drop by the getmonero.org forum and join the fun!
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July 18, 2015, 02:33:25 PM
 #7139


The thing I find hilarious about that whole business is that half of those guys don't even know who Peter Todd is... (and the other half thinks crypto means a kick ass wallet).    Wink
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July 18, 2015, 03:22:31 PM
 #7140


The thing I find hilarious about that whole business is that half of those guys don't even know who Peter Todd is... (and the other half thinks crypto means a kick ass wallet).    Wink

I noticed that too. They attack a core dev without being able to define cryptography. Funny
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