[XMR] Monero Speculation

[jwinterm]

Are there any posts or thoughts on fairness of the XMR distribution setup and how it plays out?

Are there any posts or thoughts on, that the (in my eyes and judged by today) to slow distribution, may hinder adoption, because its slows down natural, organic price development?

I feel very awkward and undecided. For Bitcoin I wish the distribution would have been slower, because it very clearly shaft early adopters over later regular adopters & users.

On the opposite, for Monero I sometimes wish the distribution would have been fast, because I think the current reward schedule with its selling pressure, could hinder adoption & organic price development today (see above).

I ask a myself a easy question, today "80% of Monero will be mined in 4 years" & we are just one year in, would it we better for us, the whole project and vision behind and still be as fair as possible, if reward schedule would be "80% of Monero will be mined in 2 or 2,5 years".

It feels to me like we have to wait alot from now vs. competing coins, where the distribution is faster. (for whatever reasons: Premines, Flashmines, start heavy schedules, ICO, PoS&PoW-combos, ...)

I am interested on your thoughts on this. Thank you for reading.

There was a long debate about adjusting emission schedule, and in the end most users and I think dev team agreed that it's best not to "change the rules of the game" once things have gotten under way for 3 or 6 or 12 months. Personally, I think 4 years is already pretty fast to distribute the vast majority of coins, but I'm also of the mind that it shouldn't be changed after 6 months or a year have gone by. In my opinion darknote is suffering at least in part because they spewed out 80+% of the coins in 3 months, and it borders on instamine scam territory (although it's certainly not as bad as shadowstuff or that coin that steals names that shall remain nameless).

[wpalczynski]

Are there any posts or thoughts on fairness of the XMR distribution setup and how it plays out?

Are there any posts or thoughts on, that the (in my eyes and judged by today) to slow distribution, may hinder adoption, because its slows down natural, organic price development?

I feel very awkward and undecided. For Bitcoin I wish the distribution would have been slower, because it very clearly shaft early adopters over later regular adopters & users.

On the opposite, for Monero I sometimes wish the distribution would have been fast, because I think the current reward schedule with its selling pressure, could hinder adoption & organic price development today (see above).

I ask a myself a easy question, today "80% of Monero will be mined in 4 years" & we are just one year in, would it we better for us, the whole project and vision behind and still be as fair as possible, if reward schedule would be "80% of Monero will be mined in 2 or 2,5 years".

It feels to me like we have to wait alot from now vs. competing coins, where the distribution is faster. (for whatever reasons: Premines, Flashmines, start heavy schedules, ICO, PoS&PoW-combos, ...)

I am interested on your thoughts on this. Thank you for reading.

This was discussed in the past and most of the community decided to not mess with the reward schedule.  The people who thought the schedule needed to be changed favored a slower distribution rather then a faster one.

[nioc]

Looks like a giant sell off, perhaps this denotes that the peak has past.

For now...

I put a buy order in at 0.00302 just in case. But I'm not counting on it. That giant sell order doesn't seem to reflect general sentiment. I think the only thing most xmr holders are feeling at the moment is vindication, not opportunistic. I could be wrong though, what do you guys think, are you feeling like taking some profit?

General sentiment is definitely not wanting to sell.  I believe the sells we saw were inspired by the dumper (catalyst), as people thought XMR may have "peaked." I assume they are hoping to get back in cheaper. This may happen, but in my experience timing the XMR market is difficult at best.

Strong hands haven't sold and will not sell for at least another order of magnitude of price increase, if not two.

I have never had more Moneroj and haven't been tempted into taking some profit.

Can hodl fearless.

[jehst]

Are there any posts or thoughts on fairness of the XMR distribution setup and how it plays out?

Are there any posts or thoughts on, that the (in my eyes and judged by today) to slow distribution, may hinder adoption, because its slows down natural, organic price development?

I feel very awkward and undecided. For Bitcoin I wish the distribution would have been slower, because it very clearly shaft early adopters over later regular adopters & users.

On the opposite, for Monero I sometimes wish the distribution would have been fast, because I think the current reward schedule with its selling pressure, could hinder adoption & organic price development today (see above).

I ask a myself a easy question, today "80% of Monero will be mined in 4 years" & we are just one year in, would it we better for us, the whole project and vision behind and still be as fair as possible, if reward schedule would be "80% of Monero will be mined in 2 or 2,5 years".

It feels to me like we have to wait alot from now vs. competing coins, where the distribution is faster. (for whatever reasons: Premines, Flashmines, start heavy schedules, ICO, PoS&PoW-combos, ...)

I am interested on your thoughts on this. Thank you for reading.

I think there are two opposing requirements for success of a cryptocurrency:

1) People need time to hear about the coin before fast inflation ends (for fairness)
2) People need to see that fast inflation will end (for adoption)

So you ask about Monero's specific curve.

1) Is 4 years enough time for people to hear about Monero before fast inflation ends? Yes. BTC had already injected cryptocurrency into mainstream consciousness by the time XMR was invented. Would 2 or 2.5 years too short? No, 2.5 years would be OK for the same reason. All investors who read the Wall Street Journal or read Der Spiegel or watch Chinese or Japanese television heard about cryptocurrency by April 2014 because of BTC. Unless the fast-inflation period is less than 2 years, I don't think you can say it's unfair. People have a fair opportunity to research and to buy Monero.

2) Can people see that the fast inflation will end? Yes, we can all see that the fast inflation will end in 3 years, so people have an incentive to adopt XMR now.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Are there any posts or thoughts on fairness of the XMR distribution setup and how it plays out?

Are there any posts or thoughts on, that the (in my eyes and judged by today) to slow distribution, may hinder adoption, because its slows down natural, organic price development?

I feel very awkward and undecided. For Bitcoin I wish the distribution would have been slower, because it very clearly shaft early adopters over later regular adopters & users.

On the opposite, for Monero I sometimes wish the distribution would have been fast, because I think the current reward schedule with its selling pressure, could hinder adoption & organic price development today (see above).

I ask a myself a easy question, today "80% of Monero will be mined in 4 years" & we are just one year in, would it we better for us, the whole project and vision behind and still be as fair as possible, if reward schedule would be "80% of Monero will be mined in 2 or 2,5 years".

It feels to me like we have to wait alot from now vs. competing coins, where the distribution is faster. (for whatever reasons: Premines, Flashmines, start heavy schedules, ICO, PoS&PoW-combos, ...)

I am interested on your thoughts on this. Thank you for reading.

I think there are two opposing requirements for success of a cryptocurrency:

1) People need time to hear about the coin before fast inflation ends (for fairness)
2) People need to see that fast inflation will end (for adoption)

So you ask about Monero's specific curve.

1) Is 4 years enough time for people to hear about Monero before fast inflation ends? Yes. BTC had already injected cryptocurrency into mainstream consciousness by the time XMR was invented. Would 2 or 2.5 years too short? No, 2.5 years would be OK for the same reason. All investors who read the Wall Street Journal or read Der Spiegel or watch Chinese or Japanese television heard about cryptocurrency by April 2014 because of BTC. Unless the fast-inflation period is less than 2 years, I don't think you can say it's unfair. People have a fair opportunity to research and to buy Monero.

2) Can people see that the fast inflation will end? Yes, we can all see that the fast inflation will end in 3 years, so people have an incentive to adopt XMR now.

Depends on what is perceived as fast inflation.
Inflation indeed has slown down pretty significiantly already (block reward at launch was 17.5 and now it is 10.9) + the coin base has grown so the declining new coin emission represents smaller and smaller fraction of the total already existing coin supply.

I am not claiming here that the coin emission is slow currently but everyday it gets better and better a little bit.

If we are able to create a long lasting bull-trend (it has to be slow enough so that the dumpers will not be attracted to take profits and stop the trend), we most likely see wide adoption for the coin.
The whole community need to work for this purpose and contribute according to their abilities, if we want higher marketcap and as a result wider adoption.
Personally I have convinced already a few people buying into Monero.  And I guess I am able to convince a few more.  I am not presenting Monero as get rich quick scheme but extremely risky investment that can pay off pretty handsomely and that the worst case scenario an investor loses only the initial investment but best case scenario this can be their investment of lifetime.

[rpietila]

A small correction had to happen after a 4x rise in 5 weeks.  Doesn't feel like it will go below 0.003 (As originally predicted by Risto, according to his analysis XMR doesn't like to stay in the 002-003 range).

Fibonacci says (roughly) that for a major intrend correction, 300, 265 and 230 are all possible levels.

Checking the price history of last summer, they seem to coincide with the lows then as well.

300-400 is the trading range, <300 is the buying range 

[Hueristic]

Think about .004 XMR with 16000 coins mined per day.

 0.004 * 16000 = 64 BTC per day. 23360 BTC per year. It's not all sold, but it's a lot of value created quickly.

There can and will be spikes to .01  and higher but it can't maintain those highs. Even with interest from bitcoin whales with 10,000+ liquid bitcoin. Do you think those bitcoin whales are going to spend all their bitcoin on buying XMR every day so that XMR never ever goes down?

Monero's daily emission is currently well less than 16 000, it is something like 15600 and declining fast.
After 1 year it is signigiciantly lower.
Therefore I think it is possible to keep up the price.
Keep in mind, not only btc whales buy into XMR but people who have fiat... They get Moneros now very affordably (like bitcoin in 2011, only 1 usd per coin).

While some might sell Moneros if btc rallies, I don't think it will be something that lasts for long time.
Usually altcoins (for some strange reason) tent to rally against btc when btc rises agains fiat and vice versa. I don't quite understand why it is like this but the history shows this type of behaviour in altcoins.
Miners, especially those whose mining costs are low, are probably cashing out coins on regular basis no matter what the price is. After all, they are in business and not speculators.
I have fiat and I am buying btc in order to buy xmr every now and then, just to support the price.

Please, Your not doing anything to support the price your doing your best to buy low sell high and trying to manipulate people to support your actions. I took you off ignore but your thinly veiled self serving posts wrapped in bullshit forecasts are getting on my nerves so back to ignore for you.

Anyone listening to this guys advice is shooting themselves in the foot.

A step back a few weeks.:

Guess I'll just have to wait for the next whale dump to get back in.

Whales are accumulating. The miners dump. I don't rule out a miner dump but in this environment with brisk demand that is pretty needless.

If I needed to sell 50k, it would not be hard to do. And if I needed to sell my produce, there would be no need to accumulate 50k before selling.

These are clearly evident in the recent days when lows have been rising quicker than the highs.

There will always be a whale dump to accumulate lower. You know this. Sometimes it will even cause panic selling. Wait didn't we just go through one of those?

The slope of the retracements is getting more and more gentle with every rise though.

Very True. Chances are getting more and more scarce. What do you think they will try next? The BCX Fud Campaign was a nice first salvo last time to make before the move.

Nice shot across the Bow Primer but no-one is falling for your bullshit.
So when is this "Chinese Botnet" going to dump? Almost time to buy again.

[TrueCryptonaire]

some pretty heavy dumps today, can we hold or do we break from here?
the old patter is still present inside the minds. dump to get even more monero.
i hope somone will teach them one more time

Wow, there is simply no willingness to hold the coin.
We are now close to break this trend...  

Let's hope the bull trend keeps in force still... After all, we did not even make new ATH.

[dewdeded]

Wow, there is simply no willingness to hold the coin.

Are you for real? Why do you post such nonsense?
Alot of people think day in and day out about how to support this coin & keep the price stable and organic growing.

[dewdeded]

So what was he trying to say?

[TrueCryptonaire]

Wow, there is simply no willingness to hold the coin.

Are you for real? Why do you post such nonsense?
Alot of people think day in and day out about how to support this coin & keep the price stable and organic growing.

Yes, me too. Just watching the current dump.
I am buyer all the time as long as there is clearly new people who need coins.

But look, before we broke to 0.0043, the resistance was 0.0032 (around there). Usually the previous resistance after break through becomes a new support level.
If the support is broken, then it is an early sign of a bear trend (not necessarily a sufficient sign, but early sign).
Sufficient sign it is when it has broken the third Fib. However, is it too late then already since the price is anyway pretty low there..
Interesting times, I don't want to give anyone advice what to do... Personally I am still hodling (and having buy orders but I am afraid they are perhaps too high) but everyone decide what they do with their coins. I surely hope this is not the end of a bull trend but just a little correction to keep the trend more healthy. The rise to 0.004 was too fast indeed, but now I hope that the support holds at least and we stay around here for a while, perhaps moving sideways.

If there are new people interested in entering into XMR, now is better time to do your move than a few days ago.

[coinits]

Is this Monero's time to shine? To me the stage is set and bitcoin is ripe for a non-hostile takeover. A Director with the Bitcoin Foundation has gone public and said that they are essentially bankrupt and dysfunctional.

Check it out:

https://bitcoinfoundation.org/forum/index.php?/topic/1284-the-truth-about-the-bitcoin-foundation/

https://ihb.io/2015-04-04/news/bitcoin-millionaire-olivier-janssens-expose-bitcoin-foundation-16737

[binaryFate]

By reading TrueCryptonaire's posts you know instantly in what direction he's trying to day trend. Sometimes he contradicts himself in the same day, but always writing like he's throwing omnisciently absolute truth.

[TrueCryptonaire]

By reading TrueCryptonaire's posts you know instantly in what direction he's trying to day trend. Sometimes he contradicts himself in the same day, but always writing like he's throwing omnisciently absolute truth.

Thank you for telling me that I am trading.
I have withdrawn my trading stack long time ago from the exchange. I am not trading anymore but holding a bag.

I have buy order in the market, but I don't mind if it will not get filled. But if I get those coins, it is okay. They will be stored for long term.

This is not overnight get rich thing, but long term and it is amazing how fast someone can dump the coin  15-20 %... Shows that there is after all pretty little liquidity in the markets.

[drawingthesun]

Looks like that was the peak for now, until next time!

If this does crash below 0.003 it'll probably take a few months to reignite the fire.
This shows Monero can still get some action.

Good run people!

[nakaone]

are we guys watching the same graph?

I was the guy pissing on the parade at >0.004 but I assumed it would drop much faster.

If it stays over 0.0032 or 0.003 a shit is broken

[drawingthesun]

are we guys watching the same graph?

I was the guy pissing on the parade at <0.004 but I assumed it would drop much faster.

If it stays over 0.0032 or 0.003 a shit is broken

How low do you think it's going to go?

[Brilliantrocket]

I'd rather have Monero stay low over the next few months, so that I can acquire more. Pumps don't really serve anyone except for short term speculators.

[brg444]

good thing I cashed out at 0.004  

guess you'll have to wait a bit more until BTC parity TrueCryptonaire  

[TrueCryptonaire]

good thing I cashed out at 0.004  

guess you'll have to wait a bit more until BTC parity TrueCryptonaire  

Congratulations on good trade.
Yup, looks like I have to waite for a while.