[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TrueCryptonaire]

Do you guys really think that it can go under 0.0024?

Absolutely.
It is not even very far away... Looks like the 0.00265 Fib has been broken so it is doomed to go lower.
Short term is bearish... Mid term still bullish and long term bearish.
I hate to face the reality as it is but this is the current situation.
I was anticipating new ATHs soon but it didn't come so down we go.
The good thing is, when the price declines, the community gets more Moneros for their bitcoins so patience is the virtue here.

What do you mean by "long term bearish"?

From last year. We are still sub 0.0111 which was the ATH.

[rangedriver]

Do you guys really think that it can go under 0.0024?

Absolutely.
It is not even very far away... Looks like the 0.00265 Fib has been broken so it is doomed to go lower.
Short term is bearish... Mid term still bullish and long term bearish.
I hate to face the reality as it is but this is the current situation.
I was anticipating new ATHs soon but it didn't come so down we go.
The good thing is, when the price declines, the community gets more Moneros for their bitcoins so patience is the virtue here.

What do you mean by "long term bearish"?

From last year. We are still sub 0.0111 which was the ATH.

Which exchange? I remember the ATH being around 96.

Also, in my book, if something goes up then it's bullish - we don't need a new ATH for the sentiment to change.

[nioc]

Do you guys really think that it can go under 0.0024?

Absolutely.
It is not even very far away... Looks like the 0.00265 Fib has been broken so it is doomed to go lower.
Short term is bearish... Mid term still bullish and long term bearish.
I hate to face the reality as it is but this is the current situation.
I was anticipating new ATHs soon but it didn't come so down we go.
The good thing is, when the price declines, the community gets more Moneros for their bitcoins so patience is the virtue here.

What do you mean by "long term bearish"?

From last year. We are still sub 0.0111 which was the ATH.

I thought when we are speculating about the long-term being bearish we mean in the future not the past.

Were you really anticipating an all time high from this last uptrend?
and because it did not hit an all time high which was virtually impossible, now its going down?

Hopefully we have a strong uptrend after the summer.  Sorry fluffypony, northern hemisphere bias.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Do you guys really think that it can go under 0.0024?

Absolutely.
It is not even very far away... Looks like the 0.00265 Fib has been broken so it is doomed to go lower.
Short term is bearish... Mid term still bullish and long term bearish.
I hate to face the reality as it is but this is the current situation.
I was anticipating new ATHs soon but it didn't come so down we go.
The good thing is, when the price declines, the community gets more Moneros for their bitcoins so patience is the virtue here.

What do you mean by "long term bearish"?

From last year. We are still sub 0.0111 which was the ATH.

I thought when we are speculating about the long-term being bearish we mean in the future not the past.

Were you really anticipating an all time high from this last uptrend?
and because it did not hit an all time high which was virtually impossible, now its going down?

Hopefully we have a strong uptrend after the summer.  Sorry fluffypony, northern hemisphere bias.

Yes, it has to show some real strength in order to have a true change in trend.
Personally I am refusing to support these levels now.
If there is a buy wall, it is a good chance to dump, not pump - IMO. And this is the situation currently (I say this because I am speculating some trolls appears later and reposts these words of mine).

In the future I don't know... Most likely Monero will die, chances for this is still pretty high.
However if it will not die, it will go to sky highs and replaces bitcoin (marketcapwise).

I don't suggest overweighting in Monero. Remember the diversification among the assets. I am not available for buying Monero since I am preparing other business right now totally unrelated to Monero.

[rangedriver]

In the future I don't know... Most likely Monero will die, chances for this is still pretty high.
However if it will not die, it will go to sky highs and replaces bitcoin (marketcapwise).

No offence but both of these scenarios are ludicrous. As extreme scenarios, neither of them are likely, and neither are there any logical reasons as to why it should be a binary 'either/or' situation.

It is unlikely that the dark sector can eclipse the transparent sector in regards to global adoption, and right now there is no logical reason as to why Monero would drop the ball as the de facto leader in the dark sector.

[rpietila]

Yes, it has to show some real strength in order to have a true change in trend.
Personally I am refusing to support these levels now.
If there is a buy wall, it is a good chance to dump, not pump - IMO. And this is the situation currently (I say this because I am speculating some trolls appears later and reposts these words of mine).

In the future I don't know... Most likely Monero will die, chances for this is still pretty high.
However if it will not die, it will go to sky highs and replaces bitcoin (marketcapwise).

I don't suggest overweighting in Monero. Remember the diversification among the assets. I am not available for buying Monero since I am preparing other business right now totally unrelated to Monero.

I tend to agree. (  ) Mostly.

"True change in trend" is definitely achieved, there is very little chance to hit new lows below 0.001.

But I also note that we turned back from the trading range in 0.003-0.004, and are now sliding down. The previous trading range was in 0.001-0.002.

In my position, buying more does not objectively make sense unless it goes back to the previous range. And if not, then we'll evaluate the situation again. My position is big enough already to not really FOMO.

A real uptrend does require a new ATH. Waiting for that before buying is otoh not very smart, same number of coins can be had at 25% the price now and should be bought and forgotten instead of waiting.

Dumping now does not make sense because the downside is limited, upside unlimited. Except a very short term play with a tiny position, which most people cannot even execute, and those who can are too rich to care.

If we take a long enough timeframe, it is more likely that Monero will fail than succeed. Statistics say so. I have said and repeat that imo, the chances of gaining purchasing power by investing into XMR are about 15% in 10 years. In 85%, you will lose, in most cases all. If you think otherwise, you are more bullish than me (and I am generally regarded as a proponent).

If it will not die, I agree that the chances to replace Bitcoin do exist, although I see that both coins serve a purpose and coexistence is much more likely.

Monero is still the best EV asset I have found. What is considered "overweight" is anybody's opinion. For those who don't have much to lose (high-earning potential, low-net worth informed individuals), going wildly overweight is a rational choice. For us older folks who need to preserve the existing wealth, have tax concerns related to asset reallocation, etc., even a small investment brings the same benefits.

If you invest 100% into Monero, you are prone to sell a lot after a relatively small gain of 10x, 4x or even 2x. If you invest 1%, you can wait for meaningful gains. I invested only 1% into Bitcoin, which was a mistake theoretically, but it enabled me to stay calm and only partially cash out after 200x gains.

So it does not much matter how much you invest, and what percentage (and especially at what price, which is the least meaningful thing of all). Sitting tight is the thing you need, which most lack.

Sitting tight in the face of 1000x gains that are only realized in 15% probability, with many FUD in between.

Place your bets, gentlemen 

[rpietila]

If we think of the general population, it is hard to say which they fear more - the losses, or the gains.

Think of your own investing history - if you sell a stock after it has lost 10-20%, and let the winners run, you are loss-averse. This is a more winning proposition that the other, which is more popular: selling the winners after 20% and waiting patiently for the losers to gain the target, and then liquidating them.

With XMR, neither approach brings good results. The scenario profile is very much weighted towards low-probability high-payoff scenarios. So selling prematurely only kills your gains. Also the short-term movements to the downside are not very indicative of a reduced potential to achieve the gains in the future. It is not possible to deem XMR "a loser" if it drops 20% or even if it drops 90%+ from the previous high.

Since even I - as the foremost XMR economist - cannot evaluate if the coin ends up losing, except by putting a probability figure of 85%, you should also be wary of making judgements about certainties. Certainty does not exist.

I strongly disagree with any long-term strategy that includes a possibility of selling at a loss. I cannot find any purpose for such.

The best approach to the gains that I can think of, is methodical selling at predetermined price points, so that the whole schedule is set in stone beforehand. This is even more important for those who initially hold a significant percentage of their wealth in XMR. Setting the percentages such that after a 1000-fold gain you still have 10% and after a 1,000,000-fold gain, 1% is a good rule of thumb. If such scenario unfolds, it is important to learn to handle money.

Even if long periods of stagnation happen, you should not sell prematurely, wrecking the plan. Also I don't advise to buy back, except perhaps after a significant 75% or more decline compared to last selling price.

[QuantumQrack]

If people are risk averse they can also use dollar cost averaging to mitigate risk.  i.e. buymonero.net  I think its a good way to obtain XMR at this stage of Monero.

[mrkavasaki]

Do you guys really think that it can go under 0.0024?

Absolutely.
It is not even very far away... Looks like the 0.00265 Fib has been broken so it is doomed to go lower.
Short term is bearish... Mid term still bullish and long term bearish.
I hate to face the reality as it is but this is the current situation.
I was anticipating new ATHs soon but it didn't come so down we go.
The good thing is, when the price declines, the community gets more Moneros for their bitcoins so patience is the virtue here.

What do you mean by "long term bearish"?

From last year. We are still sub 0.0111 which was the ATH.

I thought when we are speculating about the long-term being bearish we mean in the future not the past.

Were you really anticipating an all time high from this last uptrend?
and because it did not hit an all time high which was virtually impossible, now its going down?

Hopefully we have a strong uptrend after the summer.  Sorry fluffypony, northern hemisphere bias.

Yes, it has to show some real strength in order to have a true change in trend.
Personally I am refusing to support these levels now.
If there is a buy wall, it is a good chance to dump, not pump - IMO. And this is the situation currently (I say this because I am speculating some trolls appears later and reposts these words of mine).

In the future I don't know... Most likely Monero will die, chances for this is still pretty high.
However if it will not die, it will go to sky highs and replaces bitcoin (marketcapwise).

I don't suggest overweighting in Monero. Remember the diversification among the assets. I am not available for buying Monero since I am preparing other business right now totally unrelated to Monero.

which time frame do you consider as "mid term"?
i will hold my moneroj at least the next 12 months

[medusa13]

lol who let the bears out? 
i buy more if i manage to, dont care if i pay 60 or 50 cents. the lower the better

12%, 15%, 30% success rate, we all together can make a difference!

[rpietila]

lol who let the bears out? 

Sorry but it's true that I don't want to buy materially more unless it drops below 200ksat. So without intending to sound bearish, this wish to have lower prices (as they finally seem possible) might unconsciously weigh in the analysis ...

[dreamspark]

The thing with XMR is as I said previously for a speculator there isn't that much upside. The chances of the price x5 and staying there while inflation is at the level it is is very small. In the long distance future there is the potential for large gains but its not like its going to happen overnight and you miss the train. Face it, hardly any alts are actually used there is a very high probability that by the time XMR reaches the level where serious gains are likely there very may well be a better crypto that suits the same niche with quicker development etc etc. People speak like this coin can't die but that depends on what you mean by dead. Will its trading volume go to 0? Unlikely. Will the price slide and the general interest around the coin die out. Much much more likely. Its very hard to find a reason to load the boat up now, much better to watch from the sidelines, the risk reward just isn't there.

[Anon136]

The thing with XMR is as I said previously for a speculator there isn't that much upside. The chances of the price x5 and staying there while inflation is at the level it is is very small. In the long distance future there is the potential for large gains but its not like its going to happen overnight and you miss the train. Face it, hardly any alts are actually used there is a very high probability that by the time XMR reaches the level where serious gains are likely there very may well be a better crypto that suits the same niche with quicker development etc etc. People speak like this coin can't die but that depends on what you mean by dead. Will its trading volume go to 0? Unlikely. Will the price slide and the general interest around the coin die out. Much much more likely. Its very hard to find a reason to load the boat up now, much better to watch from the sidelines, the risk reward just isn't there.

It's one of a tiny minority of projects that actually has merit and utility. As such it deserves the capitalization that is currently held by all the scams and clones. Maybe that wont happen, but since it ought to, there is a reasonable chance that it will. If it were to absorb the capitalization of the scams and clones, than this would significantly outpace the inflation. Heck just the self destructive tendencies of dark alone could lead to a 5x gain tomorrow. I'm not saying its going to happen, but it definitely could.

[jehst]

In the long distance future there is the potential for large gains but its not like its going to happen overnight and you miss the train.

Actually, I think that's not only possible but very likely that people miss the (initial) train. I think that lots of people, including those working at financial institutions, think that they will get some BTC "later" when the infrastructure and regulation is more mature and when the inflation rate is much lower and after more people are shaken out. But these people won't gradually buy more as time goes on. That's far too rational. I believe that these people will chase hot markets in the near to mid-term and will continue to ignore cryptocurrencies for years. Their investors and upper management won't be happy with unpopular cryptocurrency investments. Then, one day, people are going to suddenly and collectively realize that 85 or 90% of all BTC/XMR/[insert non-shitcoin] has been mined, the inflation rate is 1%, and the price has already gone up 3x in a month before they even realized it.

[Bassica]

We have broken the 0.0028, and have been flirting with the next resistance level. I still believe the 0.0023 range is a very good candidate for being the bottom of this correction. I don't see us being below 0.002 for a long time since it's just a too good of a spot to buy in. If it does get there it will bounce of 0.0018 swiftly I guess.

A lot of money on the sidelines is waiting this one out. There's a lot of events that can trigger a bullrun, which will be explosive. Besides the usual suspects (ie exploit, zero cash, unexpected error/fork, cryptographic failure etc) there are less beartriggers in the short term. The biggest fight here is the inflation, which is one we're gradually winning...

[QuantumQrack]

Fundamentals.

Secure

Private

Untraceable

The ultimate money.
Spread the word.

[jehst]

The biggest fight here is the inflation, which is one we're gradually winning...

Winning that fight is just a matter of time.

[rpietila]

We have broken the 0.0028, and have been flirting with the next resistance level. I still believe the 0.0023 range is a very good candidate for being the bottom of this correction.

It is also the 2nd Fibonacci level, the (by far) the most important retracement level. A bottom there would be an extremely strong sign for the future.

[dreamspark]

The thing with XMR is as I said previously for a speculator there isn't that much upside. The chances of the price x5 and staying there while inflation is at the level it is is very small. In the long distance future there is the potential for large gains but its not like its going to happen overnight and you miss the train. Face it, hardly any alts are actually used there is a very high probability that by the time XMR reaches the level where serious gains are likely there very may well be a better crypto that suits the same niche with quicker development etc etc. People speak like this coin can't die but that depends on what you mean by dead. Will its trading volume go to 0? Unlikely. Will the price slide and the general interest around the coin die out. Much much more likely. Its very hard to find a reason to load the boat up now, much better to watch from the sidelines, the risk reward just isn't there.

It's one of a tiny minority of projects that actually has merit and utility. As such it deserves the capitalization that is currently held by all the scams and clones. Maybe that wont happen, but since it ought to, there is a reasonable chance that it will. If it were to absorb the capitalization of the scams and clones, than this would significantly outpace the inflation. Heck just the self destructive tendencies of dark alone could lead to a 5x gain tomorrow. I'm not saying its going to happen, but it definitely could.

This I can agree with, it is for sure one of the few projects with real merit. Unfortunately in a speculator driven market that doesn't count for much. The majority of people use alts for the sole purpose of generating btc, particualry the whales who can move and hold markets. Thefore the economic principles (high inflation) that actually are a good thing for the distribution of the coin generally count against it in terms of speculatory gains. It still holds that in the future it can be a serious contender in the crypto space but with alts the money comes and goes into coins very quickly. My point is just from a speculators point of view there are plenty of other oppurtunities to make gains. XMR really isn't a traders coin, its an investment and thats a good thing as long as you treat it so.

I still don't think it could outpace the inflation, this is due to a few reasons such as Ive said before where the majority of coins are mined at a very small cost to the miners. Even a 4x from here (which is a small rise in alt terms) to a price of 0.01 means 150btc daily inflation, I find it very hard to make an argument where XMR could hold that level of inflation for a significant period.

[jehst]

I still don't think it could outpace the inflation, this is due to a few reasons such as Ive said before where the majority of coins are mined at a very small cost to the miners. Even a 4x from here (which is a small rise in alt terms) to a price of 0.01 means 150btc daily inflation, I find it very hard to make an argument where XMR could hold that level of inflation for a significant period.

I'd guess that it could hold 150 BTC daily inflation for under 10 days before the selling pressure becomes overwhelming.