[XMR] Monero Speculation

[infovortice2013]

the rise from 0.001 to 0.0045 i think was one new investor-bagholder in xmr. now naturally return to 0.001-0.002 area

[rpietila]

the rise from 0.001 to 0.0045 i think was one new investor-bagholder in xmr. now naturally return to 0.001-0.002 area

Oh no! What if there is another one in the world (what a sobering thought  ) who is interested? Although the probability is very slim given that there are only 7+ billion people in the world and that Monero is the best coin, but still....

The price might make another 4x if another person joins in!

Prepare yourselves!!!1

[dnaleor]

thanks for this posts rpietila, much appreciated. I respect your effort for this community 

i am like saddam, all in kamikaze get rich or die trying

we should start an "XMR all in club"

[G2M]

This last tirade of gibberish has found you on my ignore list truecraptonaire. You need to ease up on the bs and add some substance.

TC is pretty easy to read, actually I'm pretty sure it's purposely done.

You see, TC is in buying mode right now. Not when it's cheaper.

I distinctly remember the good old trollbox days in the first half of last year when there were no less than three or four flip flops a day on whether or not Monero was going down or up, based on whether or not TC was buying or selling.

Personally, I find the mannerism so transparent that I've disregarded it as bs.

Right here:

Funny thing I do not even have any temptation to buy coins at these prices.
And I sold them long time ago, not today or yesterday.

And here:

I am also doing other project so I don't have that much time for trolling here and of course, buying the coin.

Literally translates to me as:

I sold Monero the day before yesterday, and am looking to buy back in Monero cheaper after I've gotten a small-medium gain on a poopcoin probably next week. Either way, I'll be able to buy more Monero next week after this turdcoin I'm buying pumps, but I'd rather buy Monero lower than when I sold it.

Personally, it just doesn't seem so offensive to me at least.

[oblox]

I also think that seeing sub-.002 will be short-lived if it even ventures that far. Many that already sold in the 30's (and on the break of 28) are going to be fighting each other for what little liquidity that appears on the orderbook. Now, if they were traders to begin with, then they probably don't care whether or not they reacquire the same number of coins prior to the run up, however, prospects still appear attractive in the privacy niche for higher prices than what are currently being traded at. It will be interesting to see what happens in terms of all the off-book BTC should price pop back up above 28 or even past 30 again and whether or not you seeing chasing to re-establish position sizes. After all, from a mere trader's perspective, buying at 30 flat to sell at 39-40 is over a 30% return in what would appear a very probable trade.

I'm less concerned with the move down than many, simply due to the area we're currently in being a very reasonable pullback area for price after the rise. I'm not normally a fan of Elliot waves, but if XMR really is in a long-term uptrend, the move from sub .001 to .0043 would be wave 1 and we're currently rapidly approaching the ideal end of wave 2 (final area very loose).

For TrueCryptonaire, or whoever it was, that is saying sub-.001 again in the future, perhaps. After all, it's a probability no different than price hitting .01. The difference is that me (and I'm sure others) would love to throw a 100 BTC order at that price to scoop up 100k worth of XMR.

As for emissions, they still need to come down substantially but I also don't think that absorbing 150 BTC, as would be the case at .01, is that unrealistic. I guess I don't think $35k/daily is a lot of money in the grand scheme of things.

From a pure hedge perspective, excluding all the non-POW coins, XMR built from a different codebase makes sense. There is nothing wrong with clones of Bitcoin's codebase (until there is). There really isn't another player in the cryptonote space that makes a viable hedge. Just a sea of anemic (or dead) projects. Bytecoin isn't viable due to distribution and I think that's reflective of lack of trading volume on top of little exchange exposure.

Full disclosure, I own both Dash and Monero. This isn't a post to start the debate up between either again. It's still far too early to even declare a winner but I have always stated that the privacy niche and fungability of crypto is of the utmost importance.

Finally, there are really two primary events that could happen in the POW altcoin world that could spark massive flows, excluding Bitcoin-related scenarios:

1. The first POW coin to overtake LTC's positioning as second to BTC (only a matter of time IMHO).
2. The first privacy-centric coin to overtake Dash/Darkcoin (not saying this will or won't be the case, but the title has long been in the DRK/DASH camp and it will certainly be mentioned repeatedly should another coin overtake it).

There is a lot of "dead" money tied up in Litecoin that could be repurposed.

[mitkos1]

ossibility of offshore fundsr another) private untraceable asset class and the effects on the price of those assets. Ie trying to calculate expected value. Even if you assign very very modest percentages to that probability and the share which ends up moving in, an incredible EV is the outcome.

The amounts of wealth being hidden offshore is just immense. Just the top 30 US companies account for a staggering 1,199,879,000,000$ (1.2 trillion) in 2014. http://ctj.org/pdf/offshoreshell2014.pdf An incomprehensible figure, and mind you, this is just the top 30 of companies. There are thousands of companies and individuals hiding wealth in those taxhavens. Estimates go as high as 32 trillion. And this was just in 2012!  Imagine what that figure is now, with the excessive monetairy expansions in the US, Japan, EU etc.

With the current budget deficits of virtually every government (sponsored by superlow interestrates created by the CB's) whilst (casually) trying to be solved with austerity or taxhikes on the one hand, and this excessive hiding of wealth on the other is a growing and dangerous disequilibrium. Once taken to far (and it's rapidly evolving that way) it will agressively flip and turn. Study history and you see this happening over and over again. What will happen to all of that stored wealth? Nobody knows, but chances are that some of it will be converted to a private untraceable asset class which has the properties of a scarce commodity, with the transferability of a mainstream currency.

In the topic earlier it was asked what will happen at 2015.75 and that is, for me at least, the trillion dollar question

 

I'm a big fan of Martins work. I know @rpietila is familiar with him...that is why I refered to Risto with the question. It would be interesting to hear his opinion.

Regarding offshore funds moving....this is only a small piece of cake so to speak. As Martin writes in one of his last blog posts we are headed toward electronic money. No, that most certanly won't be btc but its purpose will be taxing small people. So what is the solution? Xmr? Maybe, but there are people that see certain flaws in xmr privacy (weak points for that matter) I have no knowlege in coding for evaluating coins privacy so all I can do is trust people with reputation in coding. For now that is xmr dev team but maybe something better will come down the pipe in a year or two. There is not much time left however.

[luigi1111]

[words]
From a pure hedge perspective, excluding all the non-POW coins, XMR built from a different codebase makes sense. There is nothing wrong with clones of Bitcoin's codebase (until there is). There really isn't another player in the cryptonote space that makes a viable hedge. Just a sea of anemic (or dead) projects. Bytecoin isn't viable due to distribution and I think that's reflective of lack of trading volume on top of little exchange exposure.

Full disclosure, I own both Dash and Monero. This isn't a post to start the debate up between either again. It's still far too early to even declare a winner but I have always stated that the privacy niche and fungability of crypto is of the utmost importance.

Finally, there are really two primary events that could happen in the POW altcoin world that could spark massive flows, excluding Bitcoin-related scenarios:

1. The first POW coin to overtake LTC's positioning as second to BTC (only a matter of time IMHO).
2. The first privacy-centric coin to overtake Dash/Darkcoin (not saying this will or won't be the case, but the title has long been in the DRK/DASH camp and it will certainly be mentioned repeatedly should another coin overtake it).

There is a lot of "dead" money tied up in Litecoin that could be repurposed.

Good post. I agree that XMR makes a suitable hedge for several different purposes. That "suitable" label actually makes it quite unique IMO.

This last tirade of gibberish has found you on my ignore list truecraptonaire. You need to ease up on the bs and add some substance.

TC is pretty easy to read, actually I'm pretty sure it's purposely done.

You see, TC is in buying mode right now. Not when it's cheaper.

I distinctly remember the good old trollbox days in the first half of last year when there were no less than three or four flip flops a day on whether or not Monero was going down or up, based on whether or not TC was buying or selling.

Personally, I find the mannerism so transparent that I've disregarded it as bs.

Right here:

Funny thing I do not even have any temptation to buy coins at these prices.
And I sold them long time ago, not today or yesterday.

And here:

I am also doing other project so I don't have that much time for trolling here and of course, buying the coin.

Literally translates to me as:

I sold Monero the day before yesterday, and am looking to buy back in Monero cheaper after I've gotten a small-medium gain on a poopcoin probably next week. Either way, I'll be able to buy more Monero next week after this turdcoin I'm buying pumps, but I'd rather buy Monero lower than when I sold it.

Personally, it just doesn't seem so offensive to me at least.

I agree with this post, especially the last line. I do find the back and forth between him and several other members, well, hilarious. Goes well with my morning coffee.

[QuantumQrack]

ossibility of offshore fundsr another) private untraceable asset class and the effects on the price of those assets. Ie trying to calculate expected value. Even if you assign very very modest percentages to that probability and the share which ends up moving in, an incredible EV is the outcome.

The amounts of wealth being hidden offshore is just immense. Just the top 30 US companies account for a staggering 1,199,879,000,000$ (1.2 trillion) in 2014. http://ctj.org/pdf/offshoreshell2014.pdf An incomprehensible figure, and mind you, this is just the top 30 of companies. There are thousands of companies and individuals hiding wealth in those taxhavens. Estimates go as high as 32 trillion. And this was just in 2012!  Imagine what that figure is now, with the excessive monetairy expansions in the US, Japan, EU etc.

With the current budget deficits of virtually every government (sponsored by superlow interestrates created by the CB's) whilst (casually) trying to be solved with austerity or taxhikes on the one hand, and this excessive hiding of wealth on the other is a growing and dangerous disequilibrium. Once taken to far (and it's rapidly evolving that way) it will agressively flip and turn. Study history and you see this happening over and over again. What will happen to all of that stored wealth? Nobody knows, but chances are that some of it will be converted to a private untraceable asset class which has the properties of a scarce commodity, with the transferability of a mainstream currency.

In the topic earlier it was asked what will happen at 2015.75 and that is, for me at least, the trillion dollar question

 

I'm a big fan of Martins work. I know @rpietila is familiar with him...that is why I refered to Risto with the question. It would be interesting to hear his opinion.

Regarding offshore funds moving....this is only a small piece of cake so to speak. As Martin writes in one of his last blog posts we are headed toward electronic money. No, that most certanly won't be btc but its purpose will be taxing small people. So what is the solution? Xmr? Maybe, but there are people that see certain flaws in xmr privacy (weak points for that matter) I have no knowlege in coding for evaluating coins privacy so all I can do is trust people with reputation in coding. For now that is xmr dev team but maybe something better will come down the pipe in a year or two. There is not much time left however.

What are the weaknesses--can you point me to a resource?

[rpietila]

The society also needs to be seeded with instability. There has been a great amount of work and almost all political parties in Finland are thoroughly infiltrated, to achieve some racial mix in the populace to destabilize the country. Still it is among the most stable (that's why they need to work so hard here   )

Any kind of new tax or reporting requirement would be socially acceptable here, but the society is not sick enough to allow militarization of the police for example. The conscription-based army of Finland is also totally useless for the militarists, people (who make up the army) just are not into torture and terror killings.

Compare to the U.S., there all the above is commonplace. In a third country, the rulers terrorising citizens is the norm, but paying taxes is not. And possibly there is the fourth type as well where regulations can be voted down and there is no need to fear in the streets. Maybe Switzerland.

How this is tied to the potential for explosive adoption of XMR as a result of HNWI buying?

I think the battle line from people's perspective is "privacy", but the government is twisting it to be "taxes". It is easier to rally the sheeple against people who "evade taxes" than the ones who "protect their privacy". For this reason, tax laws are made extremely intrusive, leaving no privacy. This raises the stakes for the privacy advocates because to uphold what they need (privacy), they must break the tax laws, exposing themselves to harsh penalties, and also doing harm to the privacy movement as it is too readily associated with tax "crime" by the lapdog media.

Catch-22. Merely by keeping your privacy, the bankstercamp gets more ammunition to smudge all the privacyists as criminals! Sheep say "baa".

Very clever from them.

The regulations do have a big role in the adoption of crypto, but the question is not simply legal = good, illegal = bad. The bankster goal is to keep people in bondage, and allow them some freedom, so that the people would not team up in rebellion. Bitcoin is something they probably already majority own, so it is soon becoming a possible choice to replace the current debt money system. (in power politics, only the relative share matters - if banksters own 30% of all dollars valued at $1,000,000,000,000,000, but 40% of all BTC, it is in their interest to pull the plug and let BTC become the major currency)

As for XMR, making it illegal would probably not be the optimal way. All illegalized things tend to grow much stronger (see drug trade, prohibition). Regulating it to death (or surprise-world-domination, which is still a possibility with BTC) is more likely. The important thing is to see that regulation makes the essential attribute, privacy, illegal.

The banksters, and their tools, the governments, need to keep the number of "enemies" (people who want to live a peaceful life and have at least some capability to do so) contained and prevent them from banding together. Making looots of laws that regulate every aspect of XMR use is the way to go, this allows whacking the people who dare even to speak publicly about it as they probably have something to hide as well.

Child porn, drugging politicians in the "bilderberg parties" and photographing them doing illegal things serve the same purpose. Tyranny is evident when laws are so numerous, so vague, so contradictory, and enforced so selectively that regardless of the uprightness of character, any person can be made guilty of any number of crimes. This keeps them from doing or even saying things that might damage the system, and in general, keeps them in a depressed state of mind, unable to break free in other areas of life either.

The more people want to break free, I envision, the more XMR will gain hold. There just are not that many alternatives. In the short term, I think almost anything that could happen, is positive.

[Black Arrow]

@rpietila how will 2015.75 effect xmr or even btc? What's your best guess?

What does 2015.75 refer to?

[dEBRUYNE]

words
 

I'm a big fan of Martins work. I know @rpietila is familiar with him...that is why I refered to Risto with the question. It would be interesting to hear his opinion.

Regarding offshore funds moving....this is only a small piece of cake so to speak. As Martin writes in one of his last blog posts we are headed toward electronic money. No, that most certanly won't be btc but its purpose will be taxing small people. So what is the solution? Xmr? Maybe, but there are people that see certain flaws in xmr privacy (weak points for that matter) I have no knowlege in coding for evaluating coins privacy so all I can do is trust people with reputation in coding. For now that is xmr dev team but maybe something better will come down the pipe in a year or two. There is not much time left however.

What are the weaknesses--can you point me to a resource?

I guess he is talking about the weaknesses described in MRL-0001 & MRL-0004. These issues will be addressed in the future however. In addition, there is currently no IP obfuscation, this will however also be addressed in the future with the i2p integration (https://forum.getmonero.org/1/news-announcements-and-editorials/208/why-we-chose-i2p-over-tor). If there are other weaknesses, I would really like to hear them from him. The weaknesses above are currently the only I could think off.

@rpietila how will 2015.75 effect xmr or even btc? What's your best guess?

What does 2015.75 refer to?

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/28/understanding-big-bang-2015-75/

EDIT: Regarding speculation, I think some speculators are currently riding the DASH wave and might jump back on the XMR train if it ends. This is pure speculation though.

[rpietila]

A more mathematical and less rantish way (I am sovereign in both...):


The relationship between the amount of new value entering and the marketcap rising, can be expressed with many equations, all meaning essentially the same: What is the propensity of existing holders to sell given increase in price?

If it was infinite, the whole marketcap would change hands at an infinitesimal change in price. If it was zero, nobody would be willing to sell even a tiniest fraction of a coin no matter how much you offered.

Experimentally, in the long term this is about 1:4, meaning 4-fold increase in marketcap compared to the influx of new money. In booms, it reaches much higher values, with possibly a few trades bringing billions of increased marketcap.

From this, it is possible to calculate the price as a function of new money.

[damashup]

...
I think the battle line from people's perspective is "privacy", but the government is twisting it to be "taxes". It is easier to rally the sheeple against people who "evade taxes" than the ones who "protect their privacy". For this reason, tax laws are made extremely intrusive, leaving no privacy. This raises the stakes for the privacy advocates because to uphold what they need (privacy), they must break the tax laws, exposing themselves to harsh penalties, and also doing harm to the privacy movement as it is too readily associated with tax "crime" by the lapdog media.

Catch-22. Merely by keeping your privacy, the bankstercamp gets more ammunition to smudge all the privacyists as criminals! Sheep say "baa".

Very clever from them.

...

To my mind there is a distinction between the 'privacy' vs tax laws debate and the 'anonymous transactions' vs tax laws debate.

It's perfectly reasonable for a society to function using a cryptocurrency with 'anonymous transactions' features and for it's citizens to abide by tax laws. The same way as it's possible to use cash and file your tax returns by providing the appropriate receipts. I think 'the people' will get that.

The current landscape contains sophisticated and refined methods of evading taxes, laundering money, funding illicit activity etc by those with the means and will to do so. Crypto does not 'enable' this and it is unlikely that crypto will enhance this in any material way. I think the people will get that also.

The benefits crypto has to the average law-abiding citizens (particularly those disenfranchised from the existing global banking system) however far outweigh the perceived dangers. When (not if) crypto gets public adoption the opposition to the 'public' ledger aspect of BTC (and similar coins) will come under greater scrutiny. I see the rise of an anon coin(s) as an inevitable progression - the only questions being whether it happens before or after public adoption and which coin(s) will be the market leader(s).   

[coinism]

Interesting stuff happening here 

[mitkos1]

words
 

I'm a big fan of Martins work. I know @rpietila is familiar with him...that is why I refered to Risto with the question. It would be interesting to hear his opinion.

Regarding offshore funds moving....this is only a small piece of cake so to speak. As Martin writes in one of his last blog posts we are headed toward electronic money. No, that most certanly won't be btc but its purpose will be taxing small people. So what is the solution? Xmr? Maybe, but there are people that see certain flaws in xmr privacy (weak points for that matter) I have no knowlege in coding for evaluating coins privacy so all I can do is trust people with reputation in coding. For now that is xmr dev team but maybe something better will come down the pipe in a year or two. There is not much time left however.

What are the weaknesses--can you point me to a resource?

I guess he is talking about the weaknesses described in MRL-0001 & MRL-0004. These issues will be addressed in the future however. In addition, there is currently no IP obfuscation, this will however also be addressed in the future with the i2p integration (https://forum.getmonero.org/1/news-announcements-and-editorials/208/why-we-chose-i2p-over-tor). If there are other weaknesses, I would really like to hear them from him. The weaknesses above are currently the only I could think off.

@rpietila how will 2015.75 effect xmr or even btc? What's your best guess?

What does 2015.75 refer to?

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/28/understanding-big-bang-2015-75/

EDIT: Regarding speculation, I think some speculators are currently riding the DASH wave and might jump back on the XMR train if it ends. This is pure speculation though.

I can not find the link. It was a post of Anonymint talking about sybil attack and two more vulnerabilities. He is constantly changing his accounts so he might post that under Thefascistmind account or even latter. But I think it was more of academic discusion than a real treat. I'm sure Fluffypony and Smooth knows about it so I'm not worried...

Regarding speculation: I have enough xmr to feel comfortable but if it gets lower I'll buy some more. Lower would be sub 0.002...

[smooth]

there is currently no IP obfuscation, this will however also be addressed in the future with the i2p integration

IP obfuscation will be addressed but it is far less of an issue with Monero than other coins, as I explained in the quoted post below (the context was sites such as blockchain.info tracking IP address sources for transactions). A side benefit of anonymizing the blockchain (after all just a bunch of transactions) with each user trustlessly mixing his own transactions is that you also to a large extent anonymize against monitoring at the transaction level as well.

The other issue not addressed below is leaking that fact that you are using Monero at all. Some may wish to keep that private (or at least not linked to your IP address) for various reasons.

Cryptonote blocks are also relayed by nodes with IP addresses, and block explorers could report them if they like.  No difference here.  

There is a difference. You can report IP addresses but those IP addresses are much harder to link to anything useful on the blockchain. You can't for example find transactions that paid to or from a known address and then look for the IPs associated with those transactions. You likewise can't trace the flow of funds to earlier or later transactions and look for IP addresses associated with those. Nor can you go in the other direction and take a known IP and associate addresses to it (even if imperfectly).

The only useful things you can do with these p2p spying techniques is find an IP associated with a particular tranasction if you already know the transaction you are looking for, or find transactions associated with an IP, but in the latter case those transactions are largely opaque (can't be traced or tied to an address, and the amount is only visible with ambiguity). That is a window of vulnerability but a much narrower one than typically exists for Bitcoin.

[wpalczynski]

TC is pretty easy to read, actually I'm pretty sure it's purposely done.

You see, TC is in buying mode right now. Not when it's cheaper.

Yes, I dont get why suddenly everyone is mad with him lol. He is very obvious on purpose I hope.

He must be somewhat of a legend in his own mind if he thinks these shallow, feeble attempts at manipulation will have any effect on the price.

[jehst]

LTC is a Chinese pet coin now. All the Scrypt hashing power is controlled by the Chinese and they'll keep their golden goose on life support so they can sell it forever.

[GreekBitcoin]

TC is pretty easy to read, actually I'm pretty sure it's purposely done.

You see, TC is in buying mode right now. Not when it's cheaper.

Yes, I dont get why suddenly everyone is mad with him lol. He is very obvious on purpose I hope.

He must be somewhat of a legend in his own mind if he thinks these shallow, feeble attempts at manipulation will have any effect on the price.

According to him they have a positive effect on his balance I think his strategy works better at  trollbox rather than here though.

[iCEBREAKER]

@rpietila how will 2015.75 effect xmr or even btc? What's your best guess?

What does 2015.75 refer to?

According to Martinfoilhat Armstrong, The End Of The World^TM is coming Soon^TM.  Later this year!

Quick, pay for a subscription to his newsletter so you have a chance of surviving!

There is a significant XMR event on Sept 4th: Halving Day, when ~half of all 18.4MM coins are emitted and block rewards are half of initial.

There aren't any more milestones until Halving Day 2 (Jan 21, 2017) and Inflection Day in late 2018, when the slope of the emission curve changes from >45 (relatively fast emission) to <45 (slow emission).

Perhaps Martinfoilhat's Sentient AI program has discovered Monero's first Halving Day is the critical event which breaks the world financial system and brings down the 5000 year old Babylon System?

I S  I T  T R U E ?