Scared yet?  down we go |
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And of course, bottom trend line posted somewhere above  bravo. this one's good. when did you draw that line? |
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I guess nobody has seen a V-Reversal before. Well, almost nobody  |
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Right back to record 2013 highs... nothing happened here, folks
this kind of buying pressure is terrifying, frankly.  we're going to bubble top, just watch... new hypothesis of bitcoin bubbles: pattern with waves of new investors. |
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the mass index is the most important signal here. generally, the reversal doesn't take trend until the volatility at least peaks, and often not until it reaches back below the marked threshold. this is why i'm not surprised we're continuing slowly up. i just hope the top doesn't bubble up...
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so it's looking more like a beartrap now, huh?  i'm referring here to a misleading bullish breakout of a price channel, which has the same psychological effect. bulls buy for renewed rally, but the price just needed the momentum to correct. anyway, with the buying pressure so strong (we've already retraced 100% of the correction!), we may indeed get a bubble top after all. |
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10-DAY 2-HOUR MICRO-TERM analysis 1. MACD (moving-averages) shows double top pattern, representing the recent 'flattening' of prices. 2. Mass Index (volatility-based reversal signal) reversal [short-term downtrend] will commence when the volatility calms back under the red/blue band 3. MFI (volume-based) shows bearish divergence against the quick price recovery, partly due to decreasing volume slope 4. Chaikin Money Flow (also volume-based) bearish divergence approaching a crossover signal  i rest my case. |
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the knife signals the correction. the knife itself is just profit-taking/panic-selling, yes.
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Man, we corrected a day of gains. You aregot such a prophetprofit.
i guess you didnt have your bids in position?  i don't think you'd be complaining. plus, the knife reached almost to $21. thats a lot more than a few days' gain. edited |
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 the last time we re-entered the overbought (red) after crossing the centerline but not reaching blue, there was a significant correction.  |
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I do hope from time to time there are 60% retracements, so that BTC attract only true believers, speculators will definitely get shaked out by a 60% retracement and stay away
...
Speculators mostly use TA, but none of TA can deal with a fast crash which break all the indicators in a very short time frame, either it is trend following based or momentum based/ swing trading. And from a risk management point of view, suddenly lose 60% of holding value is also not acceptable
fast crashes occur less and less often as the market matures also, some 'fast crashes' are recognizable because they occur when a regular correction becomes panic selling. i called this knife when i saw a bulltrap yesterday (see 'bubble or bulltrap') |
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and the verdict: bulltrap |
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Isnt one of the reasons the soviet union went bankrupt that they just kept printing rubles? Isnt that what we are doing now with the dollar just printing more money with nothing to back it ? If this is the case wouldnt it be expected that we too will have a large scale economic downfall?
I'm really new at this economic stuff so, take it easy on me if i sound retarded. I do appreciate any helpful feed back though, the simpler the better. I just learned what fiat meant if that gives you any idea where im at
simple but nuanced feedback: what you say is correct, but there are far more factors contributing. the analogy suffers from oversimplification. just keep delving into economic theory and you'll get a better grasp of the scope of the situation. |
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It is just a wishfully thinking if you believe bitcoin's road to currency would be smooth and easy.
this is probably </thread>. i'm just worried that the wave of new investors or whatever is behind this price action knows not what they do. |
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the assumption is that is has been a trending market, but that it just broke out of that pattern (see the OP).
you disagree?
I do disagree. All I see on the chart in OP is a line which starts in bottom left corner and stops in top right corner. This is basically definition of a trending bullish market, the rest is noise. uh, that's not how oscillators work. unless you're talking about the price data? 'a line' doing anything means wildly different things depending on what that line represents. there are indicators which when trending up indicate downward pressure... |
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I do hope from time to time there are 60% retracements, so that BTC attract only true believers, speculators will definitely get shaked out by a 60% retracement and stay away
...
Speculators mostly use TA, but none of TA can deal with a fast crash which break all the indicators in a very short time frame, either it is trend following based or momentum based/ swing trading. And from a risk management point of view, suddenly lose 60% of holding value is also not acceptable
fast crashes occur less and less often as the market matures |
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the assumption is that is has been a trending market, but that it just broke out of that pattern (see the OP).
you disagree?
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"this brings us back to a very important, and possibly dangerous, idea: the deflationary spiral. users are reluctant to sell their coins because of the idea of larger future worth (standard deflation), which causes them to hoard their coins which creates a feedback loop which increases the perceived value of the coins."
The question is: Who gets burned in the end?
Certainly not me, since im slowly selling my bitcoins, securing my gains in fiat.
Certainly not merchants who due to prices instability are converting into fiat instantly. They also dont seem to lose their customer base, since me and other people who are leaving the "hot potato game" love to buy stuff and have fun with it.
But
At whos expence we are buying those goods, services or fiat?
Hoarders? Naaaaaaah that cant be!
you're exactly right. the bagholders will be the hoarders who bank on the deflation for profit. there is a lot of greed in the air on the speculations sub. 'cashing out' i.e. purchasing things with your profits, is the smart thing to do. hoarding coins is like re-investing interest payments into a ponzi, except worse because it is a self-reinforcing behavior. |
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the last time we re-entered the overbought (red) after crossing the centerline but not reaching blue, there was a significant correction. this oscillator indicates the same thing as the OP, but could also mean either a bubble or a bulltrap. |
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