you remind me of me when i first started watching bitcoin and posting here. this is so silly. the indicators were all bullish. we had an ascending triangle, bouncing off of the wall at $7.20 for days. nothing happened due to low weekend volume, one guy got spooked and dumped coins down to sub $6.90, which started panic sells and more giant dumps. Sure, we needed a correction but we could have gotten over the resistance at $7.20 and sailed to the next level before this happened easily. Notice how the cheap coins were gobbled up instantly? We won't see prices <$6.00, we're on our way up, and since the correction happened early I wouldn't be surprised if we sail to $10 before another major correction.
spoilers: we were not on our way up, and $10 didn't happen for about another half a year  --arepo I'm confused... Do you think this anecdote qualifies as technical analysis? mine or the OP? the answer is neither |
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Once the supply/demand reaches equilibrium with high volumes (maximum adoption), the price will be finally much more stable. (not expecting to increase anymore)
the hilarious thing is that once this has happened and the price discovery phase is over, the speculators will exit the market in troves. the ones that stay will short, and we will see the first real bear market in bitcoin history, The Great Correction.  The Great Correction? With your shades on it seems like you've been waiting for this for a while! i just hope i live to see the day. for the time being the infinite bullrun has been loads of fun, but i expect that the top of this massive curve will be the biggest bubble yet! it's just exciting in general to think about the future of bitcoin in a real sense... remembering that when i first came here it was a niche project, not a fledgling payment system thinking about the future reminds me of just how far we've come in the past two years and it blows my mind! speaking of which, i once had 200 bitcoins (when they were $5 apiece of course). if only i had hodled.... --arepo |
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Once the supply/demand reaches equilibrium with high volumes (maximum adoption), the price will be finally much more stable. (not expecting to increase anymore)
the hilarious thing is that once this has happened and the price discovery phase is over, the speculators will exit the market in troves. the ones that stay will short, and we will see the first real bear market in bitcoin history, The Great Correction. --arepo |
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you remind me of me when i first started watching bitcoin and posting here. this is so silly. the indicators were all bullish. we had an ascending triangle, bouncing off of the wall at $7.20 for days. nothing happened due to low weekend volume, one guy got spooked and dumped coins down to sub $6.90, which started panic sells and more giant dumps. Sure, we needed a correction but we could have gotten over the resistance at $7.20 and sailed to the next level before this happened easily. Notice how the cheap coins were gobbled up instantly? We won't see prices <$6.00, we're on our way up, and since the correction happened early I wouldn't be surprised if we sail to $10 before another major correction.
spoilers: we were not on our way up, and $10 didn't happen for about another half a year --arepo |
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Going to sleep, feel free to pm me if by some miracle he will actually send coins to Richy.
i hear you, this whole thing does indeed reek of he-who-shall-not-be... er.. Matthew. but, not being involved, im prepared for a good show either way  |
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In logarithms, $1000-$3200 takes half the time of a move from $1000 to $10000. $1000-$2000 takes 30% of the time. So expect to be in the $1000s for a while and then to more quickly move once we get past $5000.
My totally unprofessional market psychology bullshit assessment is that we're going to fight around $1000 for a while because there were a lot of people getting in around and above that nice round USD number and a lot of those people got their first real lesson in markets/panic/capitulation recently and a lot of them probably want to get the fuck out because bitcoin is still too risky for them. LOL'd hard...  this is so true |
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Good post, arepo.
I'm sceptical of flags in BTC land, so please forgive me if I don't put too much weight behind that. Other than that, you analysis is solid, as always.
Of course it doesn't answer _the_ question that's on everybody's mind: is the larger (post-1200) correction over or not? For fairness sake, I don't expect you to answer it... in fact, I'm wary of anyone who claims he can answer it. I believe the best way to play the current market is to determine your long term price assumptions and your willingness for risk, and then trade (or not trade) accordingly the smaller swings, aiming to ride the bigger wave in the process as good as possible.
Anyway. So far, I'm not that impressed by the current downtrend. Critical levels to watch are 915 (mtgox), the volume weighted median of the first major swing of this correction, and 900 (mtgox), 6h EMA30 that has proven extremely reliable in the past few months (if read correctly). If those are broken and price closes below, I'll think about selling some. Volume-wise, the situation is inconclusive: 2h CMF is stable and positive on mtgox and bitstamp, which is a good sign, but bid/ask ratios are falling like rocks across major exchanges.
All in all, I'd say it's more likely we haven't seen the end of today's downtrend yet, but I'm not quite ready to declare our mini-rally, that started a few days before christmas, dead quite yet.
good rundown. whether or not the larger correction is over is the same question of whether or not we will break below the critical levels you outlined. this "mini-rally" is in fact a mid-term trend, whose first point was cemented at the $450 low (mtgox) and which we had been following quite steadily up until a few days ago when we went parabolic. i'm anticipating a large correction at least down to that moving support (corresponding to the green path i drew on the William's Oscillator a few posts above), and if we are still caught in the oscillations of the larger move last month, we could easily tear right through that and revisit an even lower support (corresponding to the red path on the MFI). either way, there is still a lot of momentum in the trend according to the 1-month oscillator data, and i may have been a little overzealous in the OP when i said that either of these two events could "end the mid-term trend". i do expect a period of consolidation if we break down to a lower support, but i'd say the mid-term outlook is still bullish. --arepo |
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your axes are really strange there... but if you look at it, there is also a bullish triangle consolidation pattern that is much more robust. no one is saying that these patterns are foolproof, anyway, and the claim that they 'work better in stocks' is also rubbish. it's not that easy to predict any market. --arepo |
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[img snip]
yeah... that's not a wedge unless the trendlines have at least 2 points of contact each... and you really need 3 each for a robust model. among other things, that's the first issue i see with your haphazard lines i appreciate the point you're trying to make, though. there is little worse than bad science. --arepo |
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I am really enjoying your posts arepo.
I appreciate your posts and the serious use of TA here. Seems to be pretty impartial too, which is rare on this site!
i appreciate your appreciation! not having enough spare capital to do this for a living has been a real killer for me, so i'd appreciate any contributions to the address in my signature if my work has helped you learn, or profit, or both!  keep an eye out for a mid-term price report which should be prepared for sale this week. --arepo |
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 still going to the moon i see your trends. the main problem with trendlines is that they work up until they don't. spotting tops and bottoms is still very important. working off of the scenarios i outlined in the OP: scenario bear: break downwards, capitulation event or downtrend to no lower than $600. scenario bull: break upwards, retest $1100, likely rebound. there is a possible cusp top scenario because of all you irrational bulls where we break through the $1100 resistance and retest the ATH, but this is not likely and we will almost definitely not see another ATH before a capitulation event. cross this with another good view from the William's Oscillator and the Money Flow Index: === 1-month 6-hour scale MTGOX http://s28.postimg.org/vkq3j76ot/bearbullscen.png=== the bullish scenario, which corresponds with your trendlines as well, mark this as simply a short-term correction, as we were rising quite far above the moving support over the weekend. that would look like the green line on the William's Oscillator, which actually shows a strong uptrend with some momentum left. the bearish scenario is suggested by the red line on the Money Flow Index. the data suggest a moving support that is far, far lower and our little slide this morning may be the beginning of a deeper, mid-term correction. *just a note on the interpretation of the data: while the two oscillators do look similar, the William's Oscillator is much lighter, meaning that smaller price movements produce larger movements in the oscillator data (this is an artifact of the different formulas and different calibrations). this is why the Money Flow Index suggests a mid-term correction; in order to reach the slightly lower trendline, a much larger downward price movement is necessary. --arepo |
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Please also be aware that we have seen a mountain of clear evidence that technical analysis of the sort practised by Arepo and others, while being valid for cerain markets, has proven time and time again to be ill-suited to Bitcoin.
Please pay attention to the green line on the chart below. It represents a normal, healthy continuation of the clear uptrend we have all been seeing over the past two weeks. There is fundamentally no good reason for Bitcoin to fall below this line.
Please remember this after consolidation has happened around this pattern. Do your own common sense analysis; don't rely on an expert without thinking for yourself first and foremost.
 i do hope you realize how terribly hypocritical your above post is... anyway, let's take this apart a bit: Please also be aware that we have seen a mountain of clear evidence that technical analysis of the sort practised by Arepo and others, while being valid for cerain markets, has proven time and time again to be ill-suited to Bitcoin. false. i have calibrated my methods specifically to Bitcoin price behavior over the course of the last two years and would recommend that they, contrarily, not be used in other markets. Please pay attention to the green line on the chart below. It represents a normal, healthy continuation of the clear uptrend we have all been seeing over the past two weeks. There is fundamentally no good reason for Bitcoin to fall below this line. citation badly neededDo your own common sense analysis; don't rely on an expert without thinking for yourself first and foremost. ...as you ask your audience to kindly take seriously a chart which you scribbled a line across and made a blanket proclamation about the long-term future of bitcoin price no offense to you, Stuart, but don't post this kind of stuff in my thread. you may well start your own, if you believe there is an audience whom it would behoove, but you shouldn't really come in here, take a crap on my original and rigorous work, and then present a chart that you have posted so many times before it is almost spamming, all the while condemning the practice. c'mon now. this isn't a contest of bitcoin to the moon or bitcoin death, there's no need to be confrontational. we're going to see some healthy capitulation, shake out all the weak hands, and continue the heretofore undisturbed infinite bullrun i like you T, we don't need to be enemies --arepo |
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of course, by the time i wrote that up, we'd already broken into a larger, descending triangle on MtGox. the scenarios outlined in the OP are still relevant, but the "breakout clock" has been reset: <155 minutes from 10:47 EST===  http://s10.postimg.org/3metuanqx/newtriangle.png=== --arepo |
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 http://s30.postimg.org/cs0v68alt/bearflag.pngright now we're seeing a beautiful triangle consolidation pattern after the small slide, and the big question is... what's coming next? gox data shows a symmetrical triangle, and bitstamp is forming into a descending triangle. well when's coming next is always an easier question to answer, so by some rough geometrical calculations (white rectangles) we can expect a breakout in less than 65 minutes of 10:20 EST. === 1-month 2-hour scale @ MTGOX http://s21.postimg.org/btryd8693/triangle06jan.png=== unfortunately for the bull case, a moving support visible in both the Slow Stochastic Oscillator, and, to a lesser extent, the William's Oscillator shows a bull run that is running out of space. this moving support is quite robust in the Slow Stochastic with 5 - 6 points of contact! what this means is that either the triangle will break downwards, ending the mid-term trend that started after the last capitulation, or we may break upwards and test the $1100 resistance again. however, the oscillator data suggests that we may not have the momentum to break through and would likely form a double top, thereby ending the uptrend as well. in short: scenario bear: break downwards, capitulation event or downtrend to no lower than $600. scenario bull: break upwards, retest $1100, likely rebound. there is a possible cusp top scenario because of all you irrational bulls where we break through the $1100 resistance and retest the ATH, but this is not likely and we will almost definitely not see another ATH before a capitulation event. --arepo I work diligently in my analysis, and share it with you as I can. If you learn from me, help keep it free!
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz |
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Don't try to act like your simple differential equation is somehow obscure, nub.
the equation itself is not obscure. its application in this way perhaps may be. i certainly have only seen one other poster make the connection i just made, and the model im referencing is a little bit more complex than just mapping this equation to the price. further, as i have butt heads with many posters here about the value of technical analysis, it seems that a firm grasp of even regular calculus is not incident in the majority. so while this equation may seem extremely familiar to you (and i, as well), it is relatively obscure as far as i am concerned if many here would require significant explanation to stomach it. anyway, apologies for any perceived esotericism. --arepo |
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yeah, I'm going to half-defend you and half-ridicule you Lot's of respect for your TA in general (told you that already earlier), but in the past week or so, you've been a bit too focused on the "duty" of the market to continue the correction -- in reality, even if the likelihood of a longer post-ATH correction was rather high, and still is, perhaps, it's important to keep your eyes open for the possibility that this time it *is* indeed somewhat different. i think it says something that you respect my technical analysis but can't stomach my mid-term bearishesness... not even that! a capitulation event is not a downtrend, it's a cusp. if you HODL you'll barely notice it. i'm just calling it like it is. but i've been getting tons of flak because of market sentiment right now, which, ironically enough as notme points out, is evidence as well. --arepo |
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If I understand it correctly you have been very sceptical of the last couple of weeks yourself though, haven't you? I ask again: at what point will you accept that your trendlines have been broken and it is time to re-plot your charts?
what do you mean by skeptical? and i apologize for my brutish language i'm running on very little sleep. i mean no disrespect to you it just bothers me when comments are made that give practitioners of TA a bad name, in general. and of course no trendlines have been broken at all. we've been riding the same bullish moving support since the $600 consolidation. however, now we are dizzyingly high above the trendline and so the market is being a little irrational right now, i'm not skeptical of what is, i'm cautious of what's to come. blind bullish sentiment is not a good trading technique i'm pretty sure you're mistaking a balanced head for skepticism --arepo By sceptical I mean your daily pointing to a final capitulation to complete the downtrend. No offense taken. I am myself tired but mainly from paying too much attention to Bitcoin every day!  Actually I ask myself why I bother writing these recent rambles. It just seems quite clear to me that we are likely seeing the beginning of the final leg up, the last wave, the big bubble, the S-curve, whatever some might like to call it. Is Bitcoin ready? I don't know. But I don't think people care. And there have been many similar stories with other Internet phenomenon. But this one really is a huge beast which will go fast now. You are a balanced person and I am sure you will say it is too early to call. But I have the strongest feeling that I've had for a long time about this. And it's not just my opinion - the circumstantial evidence is there. So I feel like I should preach "Hodling" because nothing else makes as much sense! I know I'm annoying you now! I hope you are right, but you just described sentiment at the top of wave B perfectly. If that is the case, just remember to not get shaken out in wave C. haha i can only chuckle and wait |
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If I understand it correctly you have been very sceptical of the last couple of weeks yourself though, haven't you? I ask again: at what point will you accept that your trendlines have been broken and it is time to re-plot your charts?
what do you mean by skeptical? and i apologize for my brutish language i'm running on very little sleep. i mean no disrespect to you it just bothers me when comments are made that give practitioners of TA a bad name, in general. and of course no trendlines have been broken at all. we've been riding the same bullish moving support since the $600 consolidation. however, now we are dizzyingly high above the trendline and so the market is being a little irrational right now, i'm not skeptical of what is, i'm cautious of what's to come. blind bullish sentiment is not a good trading technique i'm pretty sure you're mistaking a balanced head for skepticism --arepo |
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Now that is what I call an upside breakout
It goes to show that you should be very careful trusting an "expert" in a fledgling market like this. I openly went against a TA professional who said three days ago there was a 1 in 100 chance of us breaking up from around $880. Imagine how many people listen to that: "1:100 from an expert? No way I'm going against that!" But his method didn't work because he wasn't factoring in simple stuff that anyone can think about. He was stuck on his "new moons" and wedgies! shut up and due your due diligence. who gives a shit if someone calls themselves a "professional" their work should speak for them. i don't want some random guy's bad predictions affecting your opinion of an entire practice, especially one of which i myself am a practitioner. --arepo |
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There is no doubt I regret not buying back in while I watched the price at $455 and then fell asleep that night a couple weeks ago. I missed a major opportunity to take advantage of the morons feeding this bubble, but this is just silly to return back to $1000 only two or three weeks after the market said it was too good to be true.
The market corrected downward because of the limitations from the chinese central bank regarding bitcoin and the chinese financial institutions. However; now the market realizes that it is not up to the chinese government to dictate the rules about our future money and even more important bitcoin is bigger than China! The market was correcting before China anything. We went from $100 - $1250 in about 3 weeks. yeah this is parroted way too much. news strengthens or mitigates trends, doesn't make them. we were doomed to crash when we decided to make tens of thousands of percent gains in a single year --arepo |
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