Martin Armstrong Discussion

[NotFromReddit]

I got answers about his arrays before.  The bars ACTUALLY do mean the price levels, as he emailed me.  And I forgot where he said this, but he said that the price levels are relative only in THAT timeframe that is being plotted.  So you cannot compare the price levels between two different array plots.

See at 2hrs 23mins - https://vimeo.com/198896912  which confirms what you have written above:

"the bars relate to price levels..the array has to match price level activity.."

The highest bars reflect the most amount of cycles hitting at that moment in time.
It's not just the top composite bar that highlights price activity by the highest bars, it's also high bars shown the other levels such as Empirical etc..

Does anyone have the password for this video? I'd like to see it, thanks.

It used to be public. Not sure what happened.

[1713937164]

1713937164

[1713937164]

1713937164

[1713937164]

1713937164

[Thekees]

I got answers about his arrays before.  The bars ACTUALLY do mean the price levels, as he emailed me.  And I forgot where he said this, but he said that the price levels are relative only in THAT timeframe that is being plotted.  So you cannot compare the price levels between two different array plots.

See at 2hrs 23mins - https://vimeo.com/198896912  which confirms what you have written above:

"the bars relate to price levels..the array has to match price level activity.."

The highest bars reflect the most amount of cycles hitting at that moment in time.
It's not just the top composite bar that highlights price activity by the highest bars, it's also high bars shown the other levels such as Empirical etc..

Does anyone have the password for this video? I'd like to see it, thanks.

It used to be public. Not sure what happened.

Wow, they made it private! It was public for over a year, maybe longer.
Why would the take it down now?

[MA_talk]

I got answers about his arrays before.  The bars ACTUALLY do mean the price levels, as he emailed me.  And I forgot where he said this, but he said that the price levels are relative only in THAT timeframe that is being plotted.  So you cannot compare the price levels between two different array plots.

See at 2hrs 23mins - https://vimeo.com/198896912  which confirms what you have written above:

"the bars relate to price levels..the array has to match price level activity.."

The highest bars reflect the most amount of cycles hitting at that moment in time.
It's not just the top composite bar that highlights price activity by the highest bars, it's also high bars shown the other levels such as Empirical etc..

Does anyone have the password for this video? I'd like to see it, thanks.

It used to be public. Not sure what happened.

Wow, they made it private! It was public for over a year, maybe longer.
Why would the take it down now?

This is what's explained on his website:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-princeton-models-and-methodologies-a-users-guide/how-to-use-the-forecasting-arrays/

He said most important thing is the TURNING POINT, and everyone here kind of agrees that his Turning Points just do NOT work (maybe doesn't work 75% of the time??).

If you look at ANY of his array plot, he has the top FOUR rows, all seemingly to indicate price levels, and they never agree with each other.
These are Composite, Comp-ff, Empirical, Long-term.

The single most important realization over the years that I had with Armstrong's stuffs is what he does NOT say, instead of what he actually says.

If you ask ANY trader or investor about any market, the two most important indicators are PRICE and VOLUME.  Armstrong has 4 TOP rows, and all the entire forecast arrays, and the entire array is telling NOTHING about PRICE and VOLUME?

And he calls that "forecast" array.

And he NEVER tells you to actually BUY or SELL beforehand.  WHY?  Such a great forecaster as he claimed to be should have been able to make great calls on a daily, if not on a weekly basis.  He simply needs to sprinkle a few great calls once in a while for his public readers to prove his worth.

WHY??  Think about why he does NOT say certain things.

Even when the turning point or directional change is spot on, it doesn't help your pocket.  An actual magnitude MUST be predicted along with the direction.  It doesn't help much if you bet 1 million on a correct directional move, when the price only changes by 0.01%, nor will it help much if you bet $1000 on a correct directional move, when the price changes by 50%.

If he ever posts actual trades, then such ambiguity will not be there at all.  But he does NOT do that.  Why?  When so many other newsletters are doing it, and he is a great forecaster, and he does NOT need to do it, because he is always right??

[Thekees]

What I understood from the WEC presentation and the guide is that they array are not price level but based off cycles extracted from the price levels.
He extracts the different (72+) cycles from distances between the peaks and troughs and the amplitude of the price. These cycles just have their frequencies and amplitudes and move through the market each in their own way, like cycles pas through water to create waves, the water molecules just go up and down but the wave pases through them, he says this is the same in the market.
So what the array does is add cycles together which then create constructive or destructive interference, so they build on each other or cancel each other out. The higher the peak in the array the more of these cycles will peak or trough on that time period. Thats why a high in the array can mean a low in price.

Thats what I have understood from what I have read and it lines up about what he talks about when discussing cycles not related to the market. So countries, populations, civilisations etc are all just cycles passing through the medium (us) which then creates the rise and fall of peaks and troughs of the ECM model turning points.

Doesen´t get more esoteric then this, but this is what I think the gist of his work is.

[obamainbrednigg]

I got answers about his arrays before.  The bars ACTUALLY do mean the price levels, as he emailed me.  And I forgot where he said this, but he said that the price levels are relative only in THAT timeframe that is being plotted.  So you cannot compare the price levels between two different array plots.

See at 2hrs 23mins - https://vimeo.com/198896912  which confirms what you have written above:

"the bars relate to price levels..the array has to match price level activity.."

The highest bars reflect the most amount of cycles hitting at that moment in time.
It's not just the top composite bar that highlights price activity by the highest bars, it's also high bars shown the other levels such as Empirical etc..

PM for Mirror link to Vimeo Video. Removed since nobody else is sharing

[olegrey]

I got answers about his arrays before.  The bars ACTUALLY do mean the price levels, as he emailed me.  And I forgot where he said this, but he said that the price levels are relative only in THAT timeframe that is being plotted.  So you cannot compare the price levels between two different array plots.

See at 2hrs 23mins - https://vimeo.com/198896912  which confirms what you have written above:

"the bars relate to price levels..the array has to match price level activity.."

The highest bars reflect the most amount of cycles hitting at that moment in time.
It's not just the top composite bar that highlights price activity by the highest bars, it's also high bars shown the other levels such as Empirical etc..

Mirror for vimeo link: https://mega.nz/#!LgBFXIJK!nEseSL0_eCQQtOYmDUjcgFwrhMzYVf_-oHrBE4kk0GQ

Thank you so much!!

[psp777]

Anyone know if someone blogs about attending the WEC?

[trc4949]

Wonderful !! the stock market is about to CRASH and Armstrong stops posting his private blog updates .....

[realr0ach]

Biggest failed calls of the year:

1)  When gold was $1050 and Martin Armstrong said it was going to "drop below $800 into the abyss", meaning he told everyone to sell the exact bottom in gold to the dollar.

2)  When bitcoin was $20,000 and Sidhujag said it was going to $100,000

[trc4949]

The other thing is, Armstrong is saying that GS goldman sachs could bet setting up for a waterfall crash?  how can you say that and not expect the broad market to plunge in similar fashion, the financials lead the market

[MA_talk]

Wonderful !! the stock market is about to CRASH and Armstrong stops posting his private blog updates .....

In my observation of Armstrong, he is waiting to see the trend first, so that he won't make a fool out of himself.  What he does best is "curve-fitting", or closely track the market in "real-time", except that it's in rear mirror, which means that since events happen in the past, there is absolutely no way for you or anyone to make a profit out of any calls.

-- Latest public post from Armstrong ----
There are so many things happening in the political world it is next to impossible to figure out what is going to be the focal point for the Pi target since perhaps it could be a combination. The lastest hat being thrown into the ring is the European Commission is planning to enter their sanctions against Italy. As it stands currently, they have proposed disciplining Italy under EU fiscal rules on November 21st, 2018, unless the country’s government agrees to change its draft budget plan according to EU dictates. This could set in motion a drop in Italian debt which may force the ECB to buy more Italian debt or stand back and watch rates go crazy. This may also be the starting point of sending Italy into an exit position from the EU. In the weeks and months from now, we will be able to see that this was the turning point if this takes place.
----------------

WHY is it impossible when he claimed that he can just ASK his Socrates for what's behind the capital movement that it sees all & track?

Why not just ask Socrates?  Well, most likely, his AI is not AI at all.

Look at ALL of the "could" statements.  Just throw as many darts, and if one of them hit, or hit closely, then he is the forecaster again.  If such predictions are from Socrates or any computer program, the software will almost certainly give you a measurement of probabilities.

Not Socrates ever.

[MA_talk]

Biggest failed calls of the year:

1)  When gold was $1050 and Martin Armstrong said it was going to "drop below $800 into the abyss", meaning he told everyone to sell the exact bottom in gold to the dollar.

2)  When bitcoin was $20,000 and Sidhujag said it was going to $100,000

Yes, I kind of remember that call from Armstrong.  He kept saying that "the fat lady has not sung yet"....

And because of his call, I sold almost all of my mining stocks into his call, and lost over $50K from that trade, before I realized that Armstrong is probably the best con-artist out there.

[Thekees]

So much for the 1% rule on the DAX. 

[sidhujag]

Biggest failed calls of the year:

1)  When gold was $1050 and Martin Armstrong said it was going to "drop below $800 into the abyss", meaning he told everyone to sell the exact bottom in gold to the dollar.

2)  When bitcoin was $20,000 and Sidhujag said it was going to $100,000

it still is and actually the biggest fail of all time was when roach sold all his bitcoin at $600 for gold at $1400 and lost money. Im way way way up and not worried about short term moves to shake dumb money out the likes of you.

[Thekees]

Volatility models are ALL showing a rising trend in volatility on each analysis - internal, overnight, and closing.
The key weeks ahead will be the 3rd/10th and the 24th, which should ideally present opposite trend of each other.Here is the Daily array showing a possible turning point this week on the 6th with a Directional change on Friday. The main Daily Bullish stands at 26488. We do have two Minor Daily Bullish at 25652 and 25692. Election one indicates a move to the next.
Keep in mind that we have a Directional Change due in January and key turning points will be February and April. We also see rising volatility in January and May.

Elected both 25652 and 25692 and straight away the dow collapses 2.3% lol!  Lets see if it turns around, since it elected the reversal we should see the next high within 2-3 days according to the reversals guide.

[MA_talk]

Can someone more familiar with Armstrong's stuffs explain this from his website to me?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-princeton-models-and-methodologies-a-users-guide/how-to-use-the-forecasting-arrays/

The MOST IMPORTANT bar to pay attention to for TURNING POINTS will be the top bar labeled COMPOSITE. This where we have the sum of all models. You can be declining in price as the bars are rising. They do not reflect direction, but changes in trend. Looking at the above example, a decline into May would imply a May low with June then showing a change in that trend which may be a bounce. Likewise, if the market was rallying into May, then June would imply a decline. This is a change in trend we call Turning Points which can be intraday or on a closing basis.

Armstrong is only saying that the peak in his composite row can be either a high or low.  But either way, it will indicate a turning point.

But you CAN find out whether it should be a high or low by just looking at ANY forecast array that had some given history already.  Since he can continuously generate these arrays, at the beginning period of the array, where he had ALL past history up to the current point, he should be able to figure out whether going up is up/down, and going down is down/up, by simply generating the arrays for slightly over-lapped timeframe.

Why would ANYBODY generate some charts, and NOT correcting the polarity of the chart, when he can easily do that?

My personal guess is that the forecast from the composite array has always been garbage, and he just picks out and show the ones that randomly happen to hit the mark, when in fact, no one is checking continuously for its accuracy for any time frame.  The "clarification" on low as high, and high as low, is to simply mask out any forecast failures of the arrays.

If the forecast from his composite row is correct, the easiest way to generate automatic immense profits is to simply buy volatility (buy both call & put) at the TURNING POINT.  I bet Armstrong himself is not doing that either for a good reason.

[Alex-11]

Bitcoin is approaching the critical , monthly number  (from Socrates)  that is on the table since Jan 18.
Will it bounce off that number or break through? I'm curious to see what is happening in the next 1-2 month.

[bigtimespaghetti]

Bitcoin is approaching the critical , monthly number  (from Socrates)  that is on the table since Jan 18.
Will it bounce off that number or break through? I'm curious to see what is happening in the next 1-2 month.

So MA provides no other info other than it is a critical support?

[Alex-11]

So MA provides no other info other than it is a critical support?

The computer provides a lot more info (turning points and other numbers) , but monthly critical support is a very important , long term buy or sell signal.
Actually I've checked again for monthly critical support and it has moved even much lower, in the 1000 area. A  monthly sell signal was generated recently.
The yearly number now comes into play at year end and lies below 3000. That will also be very relevant for the long term trend. It doesn't look good for Bitcoin looking at the foreseeable future.

[bigtimespaghetti]

So MA provides no other info other than it is a critical support?

The computer provides a lot more info (turning points and other numbers) , but monthly critical support is a very important , long term buy or sell signal.
Actually I've checked again for monthly critical support and it has moved even much lower, in the 1000 area. A  monthly sell signal was generated recently.
The yearly number now comes into play at year end and lies below 3000. That will also be very relevant for the long term trend. It doesn't look good for Bitcoin looking at the foreseeable future.

I agree, the btc price looks to move lower from here. I have a few targets and scenarios. We all need to be ready for different outcomes!