Martin Armstrong Discussion

[ATMD]

The business cycle and the future, by martin armstrong:
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/06/martin_armstron.html

Page is no longer working.

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[MA_talk]

This page was archived many times.  Here is from 2015:

https://web.archive.org/web/20150201231727/http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/06/martin_armstron.html

Please note that according to Armstrong HIMSELF, the ECM date was 10/7/2015, NOT 10/1/2015 as he later claimed after his release, and he most likely forgot his own dates.

Also, note that all the dates in that link are spaced out by exactly the same number of days (3140 days as I recalled).  They were not adjusted by any leap year.  And that was a DIFFERENT methodology.  He later said that he expressed dates in terms of fractional year (the link is in one of my older posts in this thread).  His "new" methodology is problematic, as I have disputed in this thread, because it will give you exactly the same dates in 5 cycles of 8.6 ECM.  His "old" methodology didn't have this problem using equal number of days, but has problem with leap years through centuries, which I attempted to adjust, and would have given 10/4/2015 instead.

Again, I'm pretty sure Armstrong is totally oblivious about these differences between 10/7/2015 vs 10/1/2015, because he doesn't care at all.

But of course, he continues to claim that his ECM model is accurate down to the very day, when in fact, he is contradicting himself all over the place.

That particular content at contrahour.com appears at more than one websites.  It was one of the more prominent content sought after Armstrong went into jail in 2000.  And at ALL websites that I've seen, the last ECM date was ALWAYS 10/7/2015.

But Armstrong himself said on his own website that it's 10/1/2015.

For obvious reasons, 10/1 is NOT 10/7.  Either the old Armstrong was wrong, or the new Armstrong was wrong.  Cannot be both right.  The problem with his new methodology is that it will ALWAYS be 10/1, after 5 cycles of ECM, because 8.6*5 = 43 years exactly, and using his new methodology, you will get 10/1 date again, and again, and again.

[Thekees]

Only a few days left and the Dow is a good bit under the 2017 close, I wonder if it will close below and will just chop around for a few years as armstrong has mentioned. It has been very quite from his side lately, you would think that after these crazy few days and a new yearly low he would post something? Also, where is his trader system, it was going to be released during the WEC, we are now almost in 2019 and there hasen´t been un update in months.

Anyone have any info or are you all just as in the dark as I am?

[MA_talk]

I'd like to know if any subscriber made money RECENTLY by subscribing to Armstrong's service.

You would "think" that given the big volatility in the stock market, there are more opportunities for bigger gain/loss.

Or is Armstrong continuing to "track" his forecast based on the current market, just like a moving average curve that always tracks, and always "seemingly" correct when you plot it out, but always TOO LATE for making any money?  When you look back, the hindsight (moving averages are dependent on the recent past values of the curves) is ALWAYS 20-20.

[Alex-11]

I'd like to know if any subscriber made money RECENTLY by subscribing to Armstrong's service.

I think it needs to be possible to answer on this question anonymously. E.g. with an Online poll. I've just created one on this question since I'm also interested in the answer.  It would be great if people here would participate as much as possible.
http://www.easypolls.net/poll.html?p=5c227cd7e4b02e7a7210ddcb

[psp777]

Well, I have reduced the amount of trades I am doing and using the private blog to help with timing. For example, Oct high. January 2019 low. Watching the recent sell off saved me about 15% of my portfolio if I was still invested. The day to day Socrates stuff is just noise to me and I am rather trying to get the larger trends. The GMW is not so useful, but MA's commentary is.
I am interested in the 2019 market report that will come out in January -sort of a road map of the future. It is likely $750usd however.

[psp777]

Interesting Interview from Oct, 2018 where MA mentions the 21600 number in the DOW. Today he wrote, " We have held our target support which on the Dow was 21600 a Monthly Bearish Reversal. We made the new low and have rallied nicely. This is a bounce most likely into next week." He was talking about 21,600 back in Oct.

https://moneytalks.net/a-warning-from-martin-armstrong/

[sloanf]

for all of you newbies out here who recently discovered Marti the Charlatan, read my earlier posts where I totally exposed this con artist and extensively covered all of his dirty tricks. You will never make money buying his crap and eventually go broke just like himself and his japanese clients whose money he stole after wasting more than half of it on bad trades.

[Kiwibird]

Guess I'm changing my mind, will keep Socrates. Armstrong did give the 26th as a turning point and although his 21600 was not hit, it was close. He said if we held the 21600 then we should bounce into next week before making new lows in January most likely. It really was an amazing call. And yes I did make money off this call by going long but I longed based off my own numbers and intraday timing for very close to the bottom. His call helped me hold for the whole day though. Truly a legendary day that's going down in the textbooks. I hope this volatility can continue for a while longer.

Glad to hear that you are staying onboard! : )

Yes a great call and I am waiting with baited breath for year end numbers!

[psp777]

We bounced down off the monthly bearish. A close below on Monday and we should test the redline in January according to MA

[Msguang]

Newbies to this forum. Only tried a gain during the last call at the end of Oct or Nov??? Which called for a decline as breached a weekly bearish reversal. However still in a long position so is having quite a loss now...(not sure about if the reversals are short term or long term so dared not to short the market in the recent decline). Is thinking of making a short position (of coz after the 31 no. out).

Anyone is interested to share the cost of the 2018 year end report? Or is it possible to share the cost?

[psp777]

Newbies to this forum. Only tried a gain during the last call at the end of Oct or Nov??? Which called for a decline as breached a weekly bearish reversal. However still in a long position so is having quite a loss now...(not sure about if the reversals are short term or long term so dared not to short the market in the recent decline). Is thinking of making a short position (of coz after the 31 no. out).

Anyone is interested to share the cost of the 2018 year end report? Or is it possible to share the cost?

Depending on the year end numbers we may see a quick dip into January/ Feb. My suggestion would not be to short this but to either go to  cash and re-buy in mid January to Feb. or ride it out depending on your time frame of investment.

Please message me regarding the report. Ensure your message settings can allow for private messages from "Newbies" go to:
profile
modify profile
personal message options
Check the box "allow newbies to send messages'

[psp777]

How was that for a year end closing?
Based on closing below the last stated monthly reversal on his blog we should retest the lows as Armstrong has stated. 16 points below the reversal.
The 2019 Market share report should be interesting

https://www.tradingview.com/x/9RLEpE2M/

[psp777]

Well, MAs most recent blog post states that the DOW may correct into mid March, but may come sooner with this recent sell off. He is extending his forecast for a "Major high" until 2032. He stated that 2020 would not be the "Major" brake-out to the upside. The computer has Marked 2018 as an "Important high" after listing the years prior as break out and Phase transition years since 2010.

So maybe a pause for 2019 at least for the first quarter and no major up move in the market for a while, but still leading to growth as capital moves to US Equities.

His 2019 market report will an interesting read and an outline for 2019 with the important numbers to watch.

[Traxo]

Posted Nov 26, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

A monthly closing below 2950 will confirm the long-term trend is turning down.
A year-end closing below 4150 will point to a drop back to 775 area.
It was a trading vehicle – not an investment class for the long-term.

[MA_talk]

Well, MAs most recent blog post states that the DOW may correct into mid March, but may come sooner with this recent sell off. He is extending his forecast for a "Major high" until 2032. He stated that 2020 would not be the "Major" brake-out to the upside. The computer has Marked 2018 as an "Important high" after listing the years prior as break out and Phase transition years since 2010.

So maybe a pause for 2019 at least for the first quarter and no major up move in the market for a while, but still leading to growth as capital moves to US Equities.

His 2019 market report will an interesting read and an outline for 2019 with the important numbers to watch.

This is always the problem that I have with Martin Armstrong.  AT THE CLOSING of the given time period (in this case, it's year), he finally changes the phase transition to important high for 2018.  It's just like any technical indicators that require a closing price to plot the next point.  In the meantime, the best opportunities are lost.  Hindsight is always 20-20.

The call for "major high" of 2032 is almost as good as nothing.  I can make such calls as well.  Stock market will be higher than 2018 closing in 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2032, 2037, 2038, etc.  Due to general long term inflation, the chance of my calls being correct is very likely correct.  For the span of 13 years, you can almost squeeze 2 bull markets and 1 bear market.  How about just say that put your money into stocks, and after 50 years, I guarantee that you make make at least double, if not quadruple?

Didn't Armstrong say that you need to do "positional trading" right before the bottom fell out of in December?  Now positioning for 2032, instead of 2020?  How about positioning for 2050, etc?  I bet that's going to be a big win.

I checked the voting.  29 people voted, and 0% made good money, while 45% found that it's not helpful.  The 17% said that it's helpful, but apparently, they did NOT make profits from it.

At the end of the days, it does NOT matter how "good" your brain "thinks" Armstrong's blog is.  The only thing that matters is PROFIT.  Whether your thinking about Armstrong's blog is correct or not (due to brainwash, or due to truly excellent "AI" computer), it really does NOT matter.  If his blog is unable to give you PROFITABLE trading actions/signals, it is NOT useful.

As I have stated a couple of times, the EASIEST way for Armstrong to help his subscribers is to simply generate and give real-time BUY/SELL signals, like MANY other stock newsletters do.  That will reduce ANY confusion of interpretation of his blog writing.

And WHY is he NOT doing that, when he has the "greatest AI trading computer" to automate such process?  I can only think of one reason, which is exactly the same reason for MANY other stock newsletters that do NOT give buy/sell signals.  And the reason is that once they show their real trades, and cannot show a consistent profitable track, their newsletter service will go to trash.

[Alex-11]

buy/sell signals?  There you go:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/qa/filtering-the-reversals-what-level-to-use/

[psp777]

I think if and whenever Socrates "Trader version" goes live we will see the combo of timing with the reversals. Maybe socrates could write a report on the timing of that? haha. A true buy and sell indicator if in when it goes live. As you know emotions are what kill traders. Following an AI computer will do much better than most and should outperform the indexes easily. I have traded for myself for almost 30 years. Armstrong is one of many people I read and follow. Some excellent calls and some other were bumped down the road.

p.s. I believe a silver benchmark is on 2019-01-07. I have it marked on my calendar. Here is a chart of the last few benchmarks in silver.

https://ibb.co/Yffkk7W

[MA_talk]

I think if and whenever Socrates "Trader version" goes live we will see the combo of timing with the reversals. Maybe socrates could write a report on the timing of that? haha. A true buy and sell indicator if in when it goes live. As you know emotions are what kill traders. Following an AI computer will do much better than most and should outperform the indexes easily. I have traded for myself for almost 30 years. Armstrong is one of many people I read and follow. Some excellent calls and some other were bumped down the road.

p.s. I believe a silver benchmark is on 2019-01-07. I have it marked on my calendar. Here is a chart of the last few benchmarks in silver.

https://ibb.co/Yffkk7W

The silver/gold benchmark is 14/16 weeks.  Don't remember which one is 14 or 16 weeks.  I studied the benchmarks going back for decades, and there is nothing to it, except that 14 & 16 weeks are rather SHORT cycles, and give you LOTS of points to be plotted.  Combining with the "art" of picking the points that actually are top/bottom, and ignoring the points that are totally meaningless, VIOLA!  It's just a perfect indicator for gold/silver.  Every single mindless indicator will work, if you simply pick the points that work, and ignore the points that don't work.  And Armstrong also plays the combination of the two indicators, and again, the combo gives you quite a lot of points, because the greater common multiple of 14 & 16 weeks is 112 weeks.  That's about every 2 years.  And again, use the same methodology, pick the points that work, and ignore the points that don't, and it will be perfect too.

Armstrong always explain away when the points from the benchmark or PI or ECM don't work.  He will always say that due to a confluence of things, and other factors, etc, etc, the high/low doesn't appear.

Sure thing.  And he calls that science and technology, and mocks every economist out there for being inside a fish bowl.

[psp777]

Well, here are the benchmarks up till today. Interesting to plot them out on a chart to see the turning points.

https://ibb.co/wrgLHrr