Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[Mushoz]

Thanks - here is the corrected link:

Help a guy who's learning tech analysis (albeit slowly) -- This means the downtrend was broken and further upside is possible?

It's not really a trend, because it's over such a small timescale. It's the current resistance preventing the price from rising. Usually once you pass the resistance, the price quickly rises to the next resistance level, which is usually quite a bit higher, thus creating spikes. It works the same way in reverse when support gets broken.

Edit: I'm a complete beginner when it comes to technical analysis as well :p Just find it interesting, just like you, and this is how I understand it roughly works. Please someone correct me if I'm wrong ^^

[zby]

My amateur technical analysis (while waiting for the *real one* :

And I made it before receiving the newsletter!

[S3052]

Here the bitcoin technical analysis answer on those people in the media  who called bitcoin death just some weeks ago.

You can discuss in the blog here

[zby]

But that's old news - what about the today's triangle?

[S3052]

But that's old news - what about the today's triangle?

it was not a right triangle, and it turned out to develop into a flat correction. 5.8 - 6 $ is good support

[Mushoz]

But that's old news - what about the today's triangle?

it was not a right triangle, and it turned out to develop into a flat correction. 5.8 - 6 $ is good support

How did you know it wasn't a triangle formation? I find it really hard to judge whether a price formation is forming a triangle or not. Obviously with some lines, it was quite easy to draw an ascending triangle, but why did you know it wasn't a correct one? I'm curious how you judge whether something is a triangle or not. Did you see this short-term correction coming? Thanks!

[rebuilder]

How did you know it wasn't a triangle formation?

Because it developed into a correction?

[Mushoz]

How did you know it wasn't a triangle formation?

Because it developed into a correction?

Yeah, but that was after the fact. I am wondering whether he knew it wasn't a correct triangle before it was invalidated by the push down. And whether he knew this short-term correction was coming.

[S3052]

But that's old news - what about the today's triangle?

it was not a right triangle, and it turned out to develop into a flat correction. 5.8 - 6 $ is good support

How did you know it wasn't a triangle formation? I find it really hard to judge whether a price formation is forming a triangle or not. Obviously with some lines, it was quite easy to draw an ascending triangle, but why did you know it wasn't a correct one? I'm curious how you judge whether something is a triangle or not. Did you see this short-term correction coming? Thanks!

Initially I thought it could be another triangle, but with triangles, I always want to see proper a, b, and c waves and then d and e need to be in line as well.
It started with a proper a and b, but then it was invalidated as wave c did go above the high of wave b, which is not allowed. This was on Jan 8 at around 4 PM, then I knew it will not be a proper triangle.

[ArsenShnurkov]

Yeah, but that was after the fact.

[S3052]

Triangles are indeed fun.. , because if the triangle interpretation is correct, then it is a great and easy way to trade.

But what if it is not a triangle.

It is always good to check for alternate possibilities. Then listing all possibilities and trying to determine the most likely one. Just looking at one option often leads to failure.

As an example, here is the alternative possibility to the above triangle option. I prefer the below option to the triangle above does not conform to all the rules



If this was correct, we would soon see a rally in wave (iii)

[Mushoz]

To which rules does the above triangle not conform? Do you happen to know any articles which describe how to draw proper triangles, and to what rules they should conform? Thanks! Technical analysis has been a great learning experience so far

[S3052]

http://www.tradersedgeindia.com/elliott_wave_theory.htm#triangle

http://www.wavaholic.com/2010/01/elliott-wave-rules-and-guidelines.html

[ArsenShnurkov]

As an example, here is the alternative possibility

Anyone can draw possibilities...



... especially, then drawings reflects their position

The picture is inspired by the early results of this poll - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=57324.0

[BrightAnarchist]

Hey anyone thought of the potential that we're in a large B wave and that we'll ultimately hit new lows (below $2) before the next major wave 3 that takes us above $32?

I lean more towards the idea that's we're starting wave 3 up, but I think the alternative is definitely possible. I hope for the alternative since then I can accumulate more coins

[cypherdoc]

Hey anyone thought of the potential that we're in a large B wave and that we'll ultimately hit new lows (below $2) before the next major wave 3 that takes us above $32?

I lean more towards the idea that's we're starting wave 3 up, but I think the alternative is definitely possible. I hope for the alternative since then I can accumulate more coins

why don't you ask your Dad?

seriously, I think he should do a more technical piece on Bitcoin; a full Elliott Wave Theory analysis.

anyways, i don't think we test $2 ever again.  we already had a classic double/triple bottom that lasted over a month at the bottom of a classic descending wedge that lasted 4 months.  i can clearly count 3 waves down from June which indicates a correction.  the intensity and strength of this upward move to 7.2 has been too strong and cleared way too many resistance levels for this to be retraced all the way back to the bottom.  we are in wave 3 UP and ain't coming back.

this analysis fits extremely well with the fundamentals of whats been happening in the community (Bitcoinica advent) as well and an oversold sentiment that was extremely negative.  everyone thought it was the end.

we just only finished minor wave 1 of 5 of major wave 3 with this move to 7.2.

[ineededausername]

why don't you ask your Dad?

seriously, I think he should do a more technical piece on Bitcoin; a full Elliott Wave Theory analysis.

this. 

[beckspace]

we just only finished minor wave 1 of 5 of major wave 3 with this move to 7.2.

"I think it's the waves inside a big wave inside the dream within the Matrix inside a dream."

My understanding of Elliot Wave Analisys so far resembles South Park's Insheeption: A Dream Within a Dream - Season 14 Episode 10. It's so complex cool. I guess I'm not smart enough.  

"Oh well, just keep mining!"


http://www.southparkstudios.com/full-episodes/s14e10-insheeption (14m08s)

[Crypt_Current]

we just only finished minor wave 1 of 5 of major wave 3 with this move to 7.2.

"I think it's the waves inside a big wave inside the dream within the Matrix inside a dream."

My understanding of Elliot Wave Analisys so far resembles South Park's Insheeption: A Dream Within a Dream - Season 14 Episode 10. It's so complex cool. I guess I'm not smart enough. 

"Oh well, just keep mining!"


http://www.southparkstudios.com/full-episodes/s14e10-insheeption (14m08s)

Heh, I see the similarity.

[bittenbob]

http://www.tradersedgeindia.com/elliott_wave_theory.htm#triangle

http://www.wavaholic.com/2010/01/elliott-wave-rules-and-guidelines.html

Thanks for the info I was just about to look up elliot waves to see what everyone else was talking about. I am on the first article so far and it looks to me like we are at C on the simple correction wave.