Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[gewure]

Just several month ago the price was $2 and nothing changes significantly since that time...

Several months ago the mood was extremely dark, the news still kept talking of bitcoin being dead.

This has changed.

Precisely.  Sentiment is up, even among my friends that still don't fully understand the concept of cryptocurrency.  They see me getting more and more involved with it, and their exclamations of "Sounds like a scam!" and "Well have fun til it tanks!" have changed to comments like "What was that thing called again?" and "how's the mining?"

Still some sarcasm, but almost none of the original flabbergasted pessimism.

same here, thought they were not sarcastic or did thread bitcoin anyway like a scam. but they got more interested in it recently.
a friend of mine e.g. refuses to sell his bitcoin to me at the daily price, i ask him every time i see him, offering a little more than market price

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[jimbobway]

S3052, did you remove your postings on the stock market apocalypse?  Where are they?  You did an analysis on the S&P 500 and predicted it would go down...a lot.  Are you too embarrassed to leave them up?  I bet if they came true you would be boasting about it instead of hiding them.  Please correct me if I am wrong.

[Crypt_Current]

S3052, did you remove your postings on the stock market apocalypse?  Where are they?  You did an analysis on the S&P 500 and predicted it would go down...a lot.  Are you too embarrassed to leave them up?  I bet if they came true you would be boasting about it instead of hiding them.  Please correct me if I am wrong.

http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/stocks-metals-etc.html

[jimbobway]

S3052, did you remove your postings on the stock market apocalypse?  Where are they?  You did an analysis on the S&P 500 and predicted it would go down...a lot.  Are you too embarrassed to leave them up?  I bet if they came true you would be boasting about it instead of hiding them.  Please correct me if I am wrong.

http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/stocks-metals-etc.html

Ok, sorry if I sounded like I attacked S3052.  I didn't find them on the main page (they used to be on the main page...I think.)

[S3052]

No worries. I have nothing to hide.

As you can see , I outlined two options. The market decided for the second option, but I still favor the bearish resolution from current levels up to 1353 DOWN. And this option remains valid as long at 1370 holds.
I am 90% convinced that we will see at least a strong top pattern this week.

Net a tradable scenario can be to short 1340-1352 with a stop above 1370.

EDIT: Above 1370 is bullish with some more upside, before eventually the crash arrives. This will not invalidate it, just delay the crash. Target remains below 500 for the S&P500

[jimbobway]

This elliott wave article suggests a high of 1511.  What...to...do...

[Edit] Not sure where the high of 1511 falls on the count though. 

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/02/06/sp-500-still-riding-strongest-bull-wave-technically-speaking/

[S3052]

Thanks for sharing. There are always many way to count the waves...

The most important thing is not to be right all the time in the predictions of the waves, but to create profits.
Right now, the better risk / reward relationship is to be short. I waited quite a while for this opportunity and now here we are.
Shorting 1344 has a approx. 2% stop loss (1371). Reward is minimum down to 1280-1300 (3.3 - 5%), and if it was the big top, much more.

[N12]

S3052, I wonder if you consider the trendline from 4.64/5.05 broken?

[adamstgBit]

S3052, I wonder if you consider the trendline from 4.64/5.05 broken?

yes this trend is obviously broken...

a new healthier / more sustainable trend is forming

[proudhon]

S3052, I wonder if you consider the trendline from 4.64/5.05 broken?

yes this trend is obviously broken...

a new healthier / more sustainable trend is forming

Down?

[adamstgBit]

S3052, I wonder if you consider the trendline from 4.64/5.05 broken?

yes this trend is obviously broken...

a new healthier / more sustainable trend is forming

Down?

big surprise I'm thinking Up ... 6.30 in 5 weeks....

its not looking good for day traders,  the daily spread is going to get very narrow, and crazy price fluctuations are soon to be a thing of the past, we have the bitcoin economy to thank for this. its been growing in the background... now its effecting price by providing liquidity on both sides and keeping the price in check. once relatively stable prices have been held for months, both merchant and consumer will start holding coins, instead of thinking "i have to turn these bitcoins in to cash as FAST as possible" they will be thinking " i have to hold these bitcoin for as long as possible" investors will not want to "buy the price up" because they know if they do that immediately after a sell off will bring the price pretty much right where it use to be.. this is because consumers will see this as an opportunity to get products for cheep. and so investors will be forced to set a bid and wait months for it to fill..

 

today is the day bitcoin start its never ending super slow bull run.

lol just a thought....

[Technomage]

Bitcoin price is showing strong resilience even in the face of major dumps and people calling for "down, down, down". There is no panic whatsoever. This is surprising even to me. It's very good for the overall confidence because there doesn't seem to be a reason for fears of a massive price drop at these prices. Time and time again these fears are proven to be unwarranted.

I have to say that I'm impressed. Keep doing what you're doing people, and we might have a relatively stable market some day. Compared to what we saw just 3-4 months ago, the market behaves very differently.

[NamelessOne]

Bitcoin price is showing strong resilience even in the face of major dumps and people calling for "down, down, down". There is no panic whatsoever. This is surprising even to me. It's very good for the overall confidence because there doesn't seem to be a reason for fears of a massive price drop at these prices. Time and time again these fears are proven to be unwarranted.

I have to say that I'm impressed. Keep doing what you're doing people, and we might have a relatively stable market some day. Compared to what we saw just 3-4 months ago, the market behaves very differently.

Yes, it is quite surprising. I held off selling until it stalled at 5.84 and I'm glad I did. I was hoping to buy back much cheaper, almost certain it would drop substantially from panic finally setting in, but it hasn't happened yet. I'll wait a bit to see what unfolds, but instead of buying back substantially cheaper, I may just being buying back a little bit cheaper. This has been quite interesting.

[S3052]

I agree with many of you. The technical strength of the bitcoin market has been impressive lately. I will analyse the market in depth today and provide short and mid term trading scenarios in today's weekly report.

[N12]

I admit, I am impressed as well. There seems to be a lot of interest for acquiring Bitcoins, considering how the depth to 5 is regenerating for the second or third time (and fake depth is not an argument when there is the threat of someone dumping 45k unlimited), and it’s now grown stronger than before.

We are probably severely undervalued, but haven’t really noticed yet.

What will happen once the stream of dumpers dries up?

[ineededausername]

I admit, I am impressed as well. There seems to be a lot of interest for acquiring Bitcoins, considering how the depth to 5 is regenerating for the second or third time (and fake depth is not an argument when there is the threat of someone dumping 45k unlimited), and it’s now grown stronger than before.

We are probably severely undervalued, but haven’t really noticed yet.

What will happen once the stream of dumpers dries up?

Oh shit, Blitzboom goes bullish again

[realnowhereman]

(and fake depth is not an argument when there is the threat of someone dumping 45k unlimited).

This is an excellent point.  It's a positive result of the dumper behaviour that I hadn't considered before.

With the threat of a 45k dump hanging over you, you have to be particularly wary of putting up fake "walls" that you never intend to be sold.  The depth chart seems to show that that is the case... no obvious bid walls are showing.

I suspect the same is going to soon be true on the ask side too.

In short: "manipulators" beware; you can't fight the market forever.

[ineededausername]

(and fake depth is not an argument when there is the threat of someone dumping 45k unlimited).

This is an excellent point.  It's a positive result of the dumper behaviour that I hadn't considered before.

With the threat of a 45k dump hanging over you, you have to be particularly wary of putting up fake "walls" that you never intend to be sold.  The depth chart seems to show that that is the case... no obvious bid walls are showing.

I suspect the same is going to soon be true on the ask side too.

In short: "manipulators" beware; you can't fight the market forever.

The bid side is looking healthy!  The ask side, meanwhile, has a few big walls, and if they disappear, there's relatively little depth beyond them...

[Spekulatius]

Here is my (late) analysis of the current developments:



From a chart analystic point of view we are completing a neutral triangle with a strong underlying uptrend. The crucial points to indicate a break through or drop are 5.3$ and 5.8$. They have been tested multiple times in the past few days and become increasingly important as we head towards the end of the formation. My prediction is, that a break through, as my interpretation of elliot waves indicates, will happen in the following hours/days with some resistance around 6.5$, 7.0$ and of course, 7.2$.
A drop would be quite steep, because there are no real resistances in place (left alone those at 5.0$ and 4.8$) all the way down to 2$.
However, the moment I am posting this some convincing breaks of the 5.8$ resistance have been occurred already. Unfortunatly that  doesnt imply an immediate rise to higher grounds, because a large SELL wall at 6.07$ in place needs to be surmounted first. Whether this one is fake or not will be subject to speculation. Even if it is, the trader controlling it can withdraw- only to place it again at the next trend reversal, maybe around 7.2$ in order to perpetuate a downtrend.



The trading range WAS ( ) around 5.45 $ to 5.8 $; but can easily be revived if the herefore mentioned SELL wall will proof resistant against early attacks. In that case a fallback to 5.45 $ is likely.

Last but not least my opinion on the MaNiPuLaT0R!: ...
He exists and has a couple of friends, who play their muscels in order to decide with way the price will take on this cross road. We dont see their whole ressources at once and can be certain to expect sudden changes in their behaviour, as soon as, lets say the 5.3 $ support breaks and the one party trying to keep up the price decides that it would be more beneficial to partake in the coin dumping with their larger-than-dollar BTC-reserves, only to buy back at a cheaper rate.

Place your bets ladies and gentlemen!

[S3052]

brief update:

While still bullish mid and long term, the technical picture is deteriorating short term.
Some key trendlines are broken: see chart here http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/

There are two clear options.
1) Decline from current levels or
2) If 6.1 $ is broken: then Rally. but there is no need to be LONG until this has happened