Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Re discussions of selling, then "enjoying new lifestyle".
Everybody's situation is different.
I am in a urban environment with huge RE taxes.
I can survive on, say, 70K a year, but anything less than 100K a year would be a strain, really, with 150K being OK to good (with a couple vacations/year), anything more than that could be used for whatever (investments, etc).

Based on this, $1mil is not really a change in style as you don't really want it to be gone in 7 years, right?
People keep talking about passive income. I have no idea what it means as with current bond yields passive income is something approaching zero.
If you are talking about stock appreciation OR sale of your assets, than it is not a passive income.
I would imagine that in SanFran or NY anything less than 200-250K/year in income is a strain.

Conclusion: I cannot really count on btc being my only money supply until it reaches much, much higher levels, which probably means that I have to work...and work.

I know that you and I disagree with what constitutes passive income, but if you believe that the standard of living that you have grown accustom requires a $150k income, then of course, $4million valuation in your BTC portfolio would be the bare minimum for that.


So I would suggest that currently our 200 week moving average of $6,650 would require 601.5BTC in order to reach that $4 million minimum goal.  Of course, either the 200 week moving average could move up in order to cause the minimum required amount of BTC to move down or you could accumulate more BTC in order to reach the goal, and even with those numbers, if the 200 week moving average were to move up 8x in the next 4-6 years like it did in the past 3 years, then you would ONLY need around 75 BTC in order to accomplish the $4million minimum principle valuation.  

Of course, if you have other liquid assets other than BTC, then those would also offset your minimum BTC requirement numbers.  Without knowing your particular circumstances, even achieving a $4million wealth accumulation goal (based on the 200 week moving average) seems potentially achievable, especially with an asset like BTC, and of course, if there is no way in hell that you are going to be able to accumulate 75 BTC, then you may well need a longer time horizon, and even 10 BTC may well be able to achieve such a goal if we are looking at 10 years to 15 years from now.

P.S. and OT: Dan Morehead (whom I respect as btc investment visionary) thinks that defi will do 100X before btc will do 100X. I have to idea how he came up with this (maybe simply going from lower base).
Unfortunately, it is completely unclear who the main player(s) would be and/or how many (or if it would even work). I took a look and some of those tokens are up 30-100X in the last 6-9 mo.
Entering now without a clue of how it shakes out is kind of idiotic, so a pass for me. Should have thrown a thou on some a few mo ago...oh, well.

Seems way the fuck too risky to me and complicated with a lot of possible areas of failure, exit scams through software and intentionally and even ethereum failures.  How much would any of us dare to put into that convoluted knowingly ponzi scheme bullshit to the extent that it is even worth considering in a thread like this?  It's like we know it is a ponzi scheme, but we think that we can get in and out based on some kind of superior knowledge of getting in earlier than other greater fools?  Does not seem like a great investment thesis to me, even though concededly it is going to contribute to some snot-nosed 14-year olds getting rich faster than more prudent and practical investors.

[edited out]

Hahaha, we are living on different planets. My yearly expenses are like $7k-8k. If I move to the most expensive sea resort and each evening we are eating at restaurants, visiting events, etc. the expenses would be $12K-15K. That is the change I want for starters. And $1 mil will be enough (if I don't buy expensive house, lambo or yacht) for ... 66 years lol

You should be able to presume that $1 million of accumulated principle has the ability to produce about $3,333 per month passive income, so the calculations for you, Ivomm would be approximately 1/4 or the calculations that I had done for Biodom, above.  And, like Jimbo mentioned in an earlier post, I would not expect that you have to get your value out of BTC, but instead if you use the 200 week moving average as your estimated amount of BTC that you need to accumulate, then surely your goals should be more achievable than Biodoms in absolute terms.

Of course, not knowing how your particular circumstance in terms of how much of your cashflow you are able to divert into BTC which would be a significant factor, too in terms of considering how realistic it would be to reach your target and how long it might take to reach such target.

[OutOfMemory]

Just found and google translated from german on a national news site:

EU Commission does not want to ban cryptocurrencies

Despite massive concerns from some euro countries, the EU Commission does not want to ban private crypto currencies like Facebook's Libra from the outset. Vice-Commission President Valdis Dombrovskis said today at the meeting of EU finance ministers in Berlin that his authority wants to proceed “proportionately”.

“Cryptocurrencies offer many opportunities. And we want to make innovation possible through regulation, not prevent it. ”The EU must be open to this innovation.
Strict regulation up to and including prohibition required

Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands had called for tough regulation and, if necessary, bans before the weekend. The German finance minister Olaf Scholz reiterated today that the ministers are “firmly convinced that private-sector cryptocurrencies do not make sense” and “should be banned if necessary”. The issuing of currencies in the euro zone is a matter for the European Central Bank (ECB).

A number of providers are at the start for digital currencies. One of the best-known projects is the Libra cryptocurrency of the US online group Facebook. It promises users to make shopping and transferring money online using Libra as easy as sending a text message.

EDIT: Bullish  

EDIT2: Ban? 

[Torque]

Shitcoins never really die completely

Get the fuck out of here with your alt coin love in!

Did you not notice that there are several thousand lingering “coins”, each with a minuscule, illiquid “market cap” which would promptly crash if anybody tried to sell any significant amount on the very few exchanges where that is even possible?

They indeed “never really die completely”.  They are in a persistent vegetative state:  Comacoins.

They reflect the majority of everyone's corporate workplace now: ZombieCorps.

So let's see: bankrupt zombie megacorps who are propped up by the banks and make little to no profit, begin to issue their own corporate-branded digital shit tokens in order to lock the public into their walled-garden of products and services, and also to tack on processing fees, storage fees, and other hidden fees, while behind the scenes also playing arbitrage between the various national fiat currencies and front-running them.

Am I getting close here? Bueller?

I mean, how long until Amazon issues their own private shitcoin? Or Walmartcoin?

The German finance minister Olaf Scholz reiterated today that the ministers are “firmly convinced that private-sector cryptocurrencies do not make sense” and “should be banned if necessary”.

I hate to say it, but he is 1000% correct. They do not make any sense.

[BTCaesar]

@BTC: Wake me up, when September ends

[JayJuanGee]

I now pronounce you man and wife. You may kiss the bride.

We are not going to do it willingly...


Helrow..? .no homo here  #

[PoolMinor]

I have a memory similar to that one.

I remember buying ETH @$1 picked up 275.
Felt really lucky at the time to sell them when they got up to $3 each.

[Last of the V8s]

meanwhile for balance  https://twitter.com/JohnBarrowman/status/1304530250487836672?s=20

[PoolMinor]

observing 10450 pop

painting up to 10500 for sure



EDIT:  Or not.  What the fuck do I know.

Under 12,5 until beginningish of October....I would say the 10th

[aesma]

EU developments:
https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/leak-eu-to-create-superbody-of-watchdogs-to-oversee-digital-currencies/

Cryptocurrency developers should produce a ‘white paper’ with all the relevant information about the issuer, the token or the trading platform “to enable potential buyers to make an informed purchase decision and understand the risks relating to the offering,” the proposal says.

National and European regulators must approve these documents before issuers can start operating.

A faceless Tor user who calls himself “Satoshi Nakamoto” will seek approval from self-entitled bureaucrats before releasing “bitcoin.pdf” and a bunch of source code, because... because.  Everybody is a bank-loving masochist with a regulatory fetish!  Confirmed by strongest science.

"Because they are tied to national currencies, supporters of ‘stablecoins’ claim they can avoid the bubble-and-burst evolution seen with Bitcoin."

Because they are tied to national currencies which are already digital, they have no fucking point...except pointless redundancy, I guess? They continue to miss the point of Bitcoin's reason for existence in the first place.

Bitcoin is bitcoin. There's no "issuer", there's no backing, it is what it is. You want some? Mine it or buy it.

The EU tentative regulation that Biodom mentioned, as I understand it, is aimed at tokens issued by corporate actors (libra is explicitly mentioned, and tether would qualify as well). My previous post simply states that I personally agree that such corporate entities should be held liable, and any failure to comply with redemption requests immediately should have civil and criminal consequences.

The last thing we need is more fractional reserve scams springing up like mushrooms everywhere.

Requests for immediate redemption of BTC only works if the individual contract with the institutional custodial entity does not exclude the ability to redeem immediately.  Some services are written in such a way that redemption is not part of the arrangement, and there continue to be a decent number of normies who use those kinds of services  (out of convenience, etc) (robinhood, GBTC and likely some other similar services).  

Of course, if anyone is getting exposure to BTC through such custodial services that do not allow immediate redemption, then surely they are more likely buying some sort of voucher rather than actual BTC.

So, in that regard, hopefully investors in BTC are mostly using custodial services that allow them to redeem their BTC at any time, and if they use other kinds of services that do not allow for immediate redemption of BTC, such usage is very limited in nature and ONLY a fraction (perhaps less than 20%) of their actual BTC exposure.

The other day I was doing some research on Google about amazon gift cards and BTC, and found something along the lines of "how to buy Bitcoin, the easiest way" as the first or second result. I click, and here is an article about how to buy BTC on eToro. Except at no point do you actually get BTC, there is no wallet, there is no withdrawal, it's just an "investment". I had thought about using such services to invest in the US stock market, although they're not really available in my country yet, but that made me realize that it's exactly the same thing with stocks, you don't hold any, it's just a pile of IOUs, total BS.

[d_eddie]

They reflect the majority of everyone's corporate workplace now: ZombieCorps.

So let's see: bankrupt zombie megacorps who are propped up by the banks and make little to no profit, begin to issue their own corporate-branded digital shit tokens in order to lock the public into their walled-garden of products and services, and also to tack on processing fees, storage fees, and other hidden fees, while behind the scenes also playing arbitrage between the various national fiat currencies and front-running them.

Am I getting close here? Bueller?

I mean, how long until Amazon issues their own private shitcoin? Or Walmartcoin?

The German finance minister Olaf Scholz reiterated today that the ministers are “firmly convinced that private-sector cryptocurrencies do not make sense” and “should be banned if necessary”.

I hate to say it, but he is 1000% correct. They do not make any sense.

I think they could make sense in some circumstances. Sending remittances via AmazonCoin or libra isn't that far from using bitcoin, conceptually. Of course the process under the hood is completely different, but it could have a similar function. Far too much stuff for central bankers to control. They would have to rely on FB or AMZN for KYC stuff (over certain limits, at least), and such big corporations have the muscle to topple the economic policies of (small?) nations. Of course they don't like the idea: it's much like bitcoin from their vantage point. No, not from yours - or mine, for that matter.

But let's assume they don't make sense in any possible way or circumstance. The would-be issuers could disagree, of course. They might have mischievous plans or whatever. So force the tokens to be tethered to a certain predetermined basket of assets or goods - specified in the white paper and hard to change. Force them to be backed by hard reserves. Force them to be redeemable on the spot, for their fair value. Make a law to specify "fair value" in such a way that the buyers of tokens have the upper hand when redeeming - no walled garden if they don't like it. Do AMZN or FB really want to risk a "token run"? Problem solved.

EDIT Trying to explain my position. I don't like the idea of bankers meeting up to "ban" anything with "token" or "digital coin" in it. The distinction between "private-sector" or "in-the-wild" cryptocurrency is too feeble and too easy to manipulate for my taste. If there are issuers, make clear laws that make them liable (and maybe harshly so: going again central banks is no small sin, after all). Once the ground rules are set and the user  is protected, let them print their tokens. They can't do any harm, but they could do a little good.

[strawbs]

It's Sunday today
which means it's time to get your
haiku heads on now

No merit prizes
from me this week (I'm all out)
but who needs prizes?

[Biodom]

Braydon Fuller, an unsung (until recently) hero/protector of bitcoin:

https://www.zdnet.com/article/researcher-kept-a-major-bitcoin-bug-secret-for-two-years-to-prevent-attacks/

Interesting opinion:
https://medium.com/in-bitcoin-we-trust/buying-bitcoin-puts-you-in-the-difficult-position-of-those-who-are-right-before-99-of-people-46d17109711b

[d_eddie]

Another Sunday
the corn is going sideways
another haiku




#haiku

[Dabs]

Some shitcoins do die. There are graveyards of old coins where even if you have the latest wallet, there are no peers to connect to, and no exchange lists them anymore (not counting yobit, for some reason dead coins live on there.)

[Biodom]

corn was ambitious,
EU says, and if it says so,
it was ambitious

#haiku

[JayJuanGee]

EU developments:
https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/leak-eu-to-create-superbody-of-watchdogs-to-oversee-digital-currencies/

Cryptocurrency developers should produce a ‘white paper’ with all the relevant information about the issuer, the token or the trading platform “to enable potential buyers to make an informed purchase decision and understand the risks relating to the offering,” the proposal says.

National and European regulators must approve these documents before issuers can start operating.

A faceless Tor user who calls himself “Satoshi Nakamoto” will seek approval from self-entitled bureaucrats before releasing “bitcoin.pdf” and a bunch of source code, because... because.  Everybody is a bank-loving masochist with a regulatory fetish!  Confirmed by strongest science.

"Because they are tied to national currencies, supporters of ‘stablecoins’ claim they can avoid the bubble-and-burst evolution seen with Bitcoin."

Because they are tied to national currencies which are already digital, they have no fucking point...except pointless redundancy, I guess? They continue to miss the point of Bitcoin's reason for existence in the first place.

Bitcoin is bitcoin. There's no "issuer", there's no backing, it is what it is. You want some? Mine it or buy it.

The EU tentative regulation that Biodom mentioned, as I understand it, is aimed at tokens issued by corporate actors (libra is explicitly mentioned, and tether would qualify as well). My previous post simply states that I personally agree that such corporate entities should be held liable, and any failure to comply with redemption requests immediately should have civil and criminal consequences.

The last thing we need is more fractional reserve scams springing up like mushrooms everywhere.

Requests for immediate redemption of BTC only works if the individual contract with the institutional custodial entity does not exclude the ability to redeem immediately.  Some services are written in such a way that redemption is not part of the arrangement, and there continue to be a decent number of normies who use those kinds of services  (out of convenience, etc) (robinhood, GBTC and likely some other similar services).  

Of course, if anyone is getting exposure to BTC through such custodial services that do not allow immediate redemption, then surely they are more likely buying some sort of voucher rather than actual BTC.

So, in that regard, hopefully investors in BTC are mostly using custodial services that allow them to redeem their BTC at any time, and if they use other kinds of services that do not allow for immediate redemption of BTC, such usage is very limited in nature and ONLY a fraction (perhaps less than 20%) of their actual BTC exposure.

The other day I was doing some research on Google about amazon gift cards and BTC, and found something along the lines of "how to buy Bitcoin, the easiest way" as the first or second result. I click, and here is an article about how to buy BTC on eToro. Except at no point do you actually get BTC, there is no wallet, there is no withdrawal, it's just an "investment". I had thought about using such services to invest in the US stock market, although they're not really available in my country yet, but that made me realize that it's exactly the same thing with stocks, you don't hold any, it's just a pile of IOUs, total BS.

Probably we are a bit more sensitive regarding ability to directly hold if we understand the scarcity value proposition in bitcoin that could be undermined (to some extent) with third parties that do not allow you to hold or claim the underlying asset.  It could take a long time for regular customers to figure out that particular angle of bitcoin's value proposition.

At the same time, there seems to be quite a bit of evidence that NOT too many BTC are moving around, which surely could affect the BTC market but also bring into question, from time to time, the extent that some third parties might not be holding the quantity of BTC that they claim to be holding, and sure it is possible that some of them will get rekt because they do not have the underlying asset that they claim to have - especially if the BTC price goes shooting up and they are making shit up regarding how much BTC they have...  It seems quite likely that their customers could (and maybe even would) get screwed in such a process, too.

Another Sunday
the corn is going sideways
another haiku

#haiku

Well, in essence, we are witnessing that the 12th came and went, and surely there were some moment in which $10,501 was nearly breached, but we did not quite get a supra $10.5k closing, instead we got a sub $10.5k closing...

Close but no cigar, for some of the supra $10.5k closing wisheners in the no longer current poll.   not that I am a bear wannabe nor wishing any ill-will upon any wrong poll participant.  

[nullius]

Something that V8s posted earlier incited an essay that went off into a tangent; it took on a life of its own, and...  I think that I will just leave this here for now.

USA “We Can Do It!” J. Howard Miller (1942–43)

USSR “The Liberated Woman is Building Socialism” Adolf Strakhov (1926)

(Edited repeatedly due to a bizarre forum bug that broke the table after posting, but not on preview.  Inexplicable solution:  Add an empty table cell at the beginning of the row (!).)

[Yogee]

Did bitcoin enter the Kangaroo market again? $10K seems to be its favorite playground.

[Toxic2040]

[nullius]

Well, in essence, we are witnessing that the 12th came and went, and surely there were some moment in which $10,501 was nearly breached, but we did not quite get a supra $10.5k closing, instead we got a sub $10.5k closing...

For the record, did we hit or pass $10,472 at major exchanges?

Did bitcoin enter the Kangaroo market again? $10K seems to be its favorite playground.

All things considered, it’s been in this range for a very short time.  That’s not a trend.  People who are impatient for drastic weekly swings are far too accustomed to extreme volatility.

When I said before that the $10k range was “comfortable”, I hope that neither Jay nor anybody else took that as anything but optimistic.  Cheerful, even.  Those who predicted a sudden drop to $8k, $6k, or even lower were flat wrong.  Stability above that magical $10k line is good.  Those who short are getting spanked, whilst holders enjoy a store of value that’s doing just that.  Slow and steady...  The moon is still out there.