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Question: What type of pool payouts do you prefer?
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Author Topic: [40+ PH] SlushPool (slushpool.com); World's First Mining Pool  (Read 3926701 times)
organofcorti
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December 24, 2013, 07:18:53 AM
 #13821

This is BAD. Plus my share per round has gone from .0028 to .0020 with the pool growing. BOO

Your share of the reward per round has dropped with an increase in the pool hashrate, but you can expect more rounds per unit time. Your expected reward per day is unaffected by pool size, only by your hashrate and the network difficulty.


in the current situation I've gone from nearly .035  a day to .01 a day! LOL

You'll need to average that out over more than one day. More like a couple of weeks, minimum (which means you'll have to account for difficulty changes too)

At such a low hashrate you'll find variance is quite large, and the scoring method Slush's pool uses further increases variance.

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organofcorti
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December 24, 2013, 07:20:56 AM
 #13822

This is BAD. Plus my share per round has gone from .0028 to .0020 with the pool growing. BOO

Your share of the reward per round has dropped with an increase in the pool hashrate, but you can expect more rounds per unit time. Your expected reward per day is unaffected by pool size, only by your hashrate and the network difficulty.


Definitely makes sense to expect more rounds per unit of time with more power behind the pool, however, that is clearly not how things are playing out in the real-world.

I use "expected" in the mathematical sense, to mean "average". If it's not working out like that, then either you're not allowing enough time for variance to reduce, or you're not taking into account network difficulty changes, or there's a problem at Slush's pool. It's shouldn't be too hard to figure out which if you have enough time and enough data.

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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December 24, 2013, 08:39:37 AM
 #13823

This is BAD. Plus my share per round has gone from .0028 to .0020 with the pool growing. BOO

Your share of the reward per round has dropped with an increase in the pool hashrate, but you can expect more rounds per unit time. Your expected reward per day is unaffected by pool size, only by your hashrate and the network difficulty.


Definitely makes sense to expect more rounds per unit of time with more power behind the pool, however, that is clearly not how things are playing out in the real-world.

I use "expected" in the mathematical sense, to mean "average". If it's not working out like that, then either you're not allowing enough time for variance to reduce, or you're not taking into account network difficulty changes, or there's a problem at Slush's pool. It's shouldn't be too hard to figure out which if you have enough time and enough data.

Ya... I'm not dumb, I understand your usage of the terms, but academics and statistical modeling take a backseat occasionally during a discussion like this. Problem is no one is plotting the data, much less collecting it to quantify later for analysis; but I bet if you throw avg daily round times on a Pareto chart that this week and last show a major breakpoint in round length compared to a month ago. I feel like the reported "luck" is way off from what it actually is. We would get one 12 hour round per week before, now we almost get one per day.

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December 24, 2013, 08:46:55 AM
 #13824

According to the expected return on my mining hardware rate (a whopping 32GH/s - woot) I'm actually pretty much on par with what I'm supposed to be mining right now, but it's really deflating when I see other pools finding blocks every 20-30...5 minutes when we've been mining for over 7 hours now. Maybe I should go read a book, or 10, and check back later and let it all average out. The more I watch the more anxious I get.... My wife said I'd be obsessed with this, she was right. I think that's the problem, I'm paying too much attention right now Sad
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December 24, 2013, 08:48:58 AM
 #13825

According to the expected return on my mining hardware rate (a whopping 32GH/s - woot) I'm actually pretty much on par with what I'm supposed to be mining right now, but it's really deflating when I see other pools finding blocks every 20-30...5 minutes when we've been mining for over 7 hours now. Maybe I should go read a book, or 10, and check back later and let it all average out. The more I watch the more anxious I get.... My wife said I'd be obsessed with this, she was right. I think that's the problem, I'm paying too much attention right now Sad

Fast rounds only happen when I'm sleeping lol... We're in this together, also obsessively watching here, waiting, ugh...

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December 24, 2013, 09:35:25 AM
 #13826

According to the expected return on my mining hardware rate (a whopping 32GH/s - woot) I'm actually pretty much on par with what I'm supposed to be mining right now, but it's really deflating when I see other pools finding blocks every 20-30...5 minutes when we've been mining for over 7 hours now. Maybe I should go read a book, or 10, and check back later and let it all average out. The more I watch the more anxious I get.... My wife said I'd be obsessed with this, she was right. I think that's the problem, I'm paying too much attention right now Sad

Fast rounds only happen when I'm sleeping lol... We're in this together, also obsessively watching here, waiting, ugh...

In all truth, I have noticed the same thing. I wake up in the morning (er...afternoon) and we've hit four to six blocks. I guess it's the, "a watched pot doesn't boil" situation. Still don't quite understand that one from a physics standpoint, but it does kinda make sense in this case Wink
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December 24, 2013, 12:06:46 PM
 #13827

30 day luck as I write this is still at 97%.

That's low, but that's still normal.  If it gets closer to 90% then maybe it is time to worry, but +-3 or 4% is normal. 

Short term luck means more to human psychology, but we aren't outside of statistics just yet.
organofcorti
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December 24, 2013, 02:08:34 PM
 #13828

I use "expected" in the mathematical sense, to mean "average". If it's not working out like that, then either you're not allowing enough time for variance to reduce, or you're not taking into account network difficulty changes, or there's a problem at Slush's pool. It's shouldn't be too hard to figure out which if you have enough time and enough data.

Ya... I'm not dumb, I understand your usage of the terms, but academics and statistical modeling take a backseat occasionally during a discussion like this. Problem is no one is plotting the data, much less collecting it to quantify later for analysis; but I bet if you throw avg daily round times on a Pareto chart that this week and last show a major breakpoint in round length compared to a month ago. I feel like the reported "luck" is way off from what it actually is. We would get one 12 hour round per week before, now we almost get one per day.

I have been charting data for the network and for many pools for almost two years. The data is not pareto distributed, rather the average "luck" per n rounds is erlang distributed. PM me of you want more details, otherwise check out http://organofcorti.blogspot.com.au/search/label/weeklypoolstatistics.

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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December 24, 2013, 02:43:33 PM
 #13829

Ya... I'm not dumb, I understand your usage of the terms, but academics and statistical modeling take a backseat occasionally during a discussion like this. Problem is no one is plotting the data, much less collecting it to quantify later for analysis; but I bet if you throw avg daily round times on a Pareto chart that this week and last show a major breakpoint in round length compared to a month ago. I feel like the reported "luck" is way off from what it actually is. We would get one 12 hour round per week before, now we almost get one per day.

While the pool speed at slush has been increasing, it has been decreasing as a percentage of the overall network steadily for quite a few months.  Compared to July, it is half the % of the network it used to be.  If a pool shrinks in its share of the network, the average round length will go up.  Looking at the *time* a round takes is a meaningless number compared to the Shares rounds take in comparison to difficulty.

Additionally, smaller share of the network means you will have more variance.  While your expected reward is the same, it will be made up of higher highs and lower lows when looked at over reasonable time frames (such as 30-days).

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newguy05
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December 24, 2013, 03:54:54 PM
 #13830

another 10 hour block last night! Pool luck at (1 day, 7 days, 30 days):   78%, 88%, 96%

this is nuts, if it doesn't improve in the next 48 hours i am switching pools.  Understand this may just be all luck, but still it doesn't seem right, we are running at minimum 1-2 hrs per block which should be the average not min, while many blocks are 4 and above.
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December 24, 2013, 04:25:52 PM
 #13831

we are running at minimum 1-2 hrs per block which should be the average not min, while many blocks are 4 and above.
Not quite. The pool is just 5% of the network which makes 3h per round on average or 7-8 rounds per day - just count them for the last few days and you'll see they are 7 on average even with our bad luck

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December 24, 2013, 04:33:40 PM
 #13832

Does anyone have information about payout comparisons between pools? For instance Slush has about 500 terahash and btcguild has about 2500 terahash. What would be the payout from each pool for the same amount of hashing?
Any comparison of the same type between pools would be of interest, not just btcguild.
Also, at the moment slush has found 3 blocks for today (24 Dec) and btcguild has found 22. That seems out of balance but maybe just because of short timeframes.

Morris
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December 24, 2013, 04:47:24 PM
 #13833


I have been charting data for the network and for many pools for almost two years. The data is not pareto distributed, rather the average "luck" per n rounds is erlang distributed. PM me of you want more details, otherwise check out http://organofcorti.blogspot.com.au/search/label/weeklypoolstatistics.

Do you have data showing luck by week? The more I watch these data, the more I don't think luck reverts to a mean.
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December 24, 2013, 06:03:39 PM
 #13834


I have been charting data for the network and for many pools for almost two years. The data is not pareto distributed, rather the average "luck" per n rounds is erlang distributed. PM me of you want more details, otherwise check out http://organofcorti.blogspot.com.au/search/label/weeklypoolstatistics.

Do you have data showing luck by week? The more I watch these data, the more I don't think luck reverts to a mean.
Just by virtue of big numbers and that old weeks drop off the 30 day average eventually. If you have a week of bad (or good) luck you're not any more or less likely have the same or different luck the next week.
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December 24, 2013, 06:42:39 PM
 #13835

we are running at minimum 1-2 hrs per block which should be the average not min, while many blocks are 4 and above.
Not quite. The pool is just 5% of the network which makes 3h per round on average or 7-8 rounds per day - just count them for the last few days and you'll see they are 7 on average even with our bad luck

I just find it stupendous to realize that at 500 terahashes, we are only 5% of the network. When did so many people get into this? Good grief. I am modifying my plan for every other person to voluntarily quit mining to every 2nd and 3rd person to quit, to make it more lucrative for those of us that remain. That's a joke, BTW.

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December 24, 2013, 06:46:48 PM
 #13836

The funny thing is not just the reward % that you lose every round due to the difficulty increase, but the number of solved blocks also went down for slush.

This means a 20% less than other pools. I can tell because I have 3 exact miners pointing to 3 different pools, and when the difficulty rise loss is more or less accurate in other pools, this time waqs cathastrophic for Slush.

For example, with 40GH i was making more or less 500K satoshi per solved block, about 0.05BTC per day before the last jump. Now is about 410K satoshi (which seems legit) but a 24h reward of 0.03BTC!!

Gentlemen... I don´t know if the pool can support 500TH, or whatever, but the difference is HUGE.
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December 24, 2013, 07:19:18 PM
 #13837

The funny thing is not just the reward % that you lose every round due to the difficulty increase, but the number of solved blocks also went down for slush.

<STUFF DELETED>

Gentlemen... I don´t know if the pool can support 500TH, or whatever, but the difference is HUGE.

Can support 500TH? What do you mean? Do you think the pool is having trouble keeping up with 500TH? Wouldn't that just result in a lot of invalid blocks? Or no blocks being found? Sorry; this is getting pretty arcane to me... After all this time I still don't understand the real nuts and bolts of what goes on...

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newguy05
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December 24, 2013, 07:26:42 PM
 #13838

we are running at minimum 1-2 hrs per block which should be the average not min, while many blocks are 4 and above.
Not quite. The pool is just 5% of the network which makes 3h per round on average or 7-8 rounds per day - just count them for the last few days and you'll see they are 7 on average even with our bad luck

I just find it stupendous to realize that at 500 terahashes, we are only 5% of the network. When did so many people get into this? Good grief. I am modifying my plan for every other person to voluntarily quit mining to every 2nd and 3rd person to quit, to make it more lucrative for those of us that remain. That's a joke, BTW.


why is 500 TH stupendous to realize at 5%? we are closing in on 1 TH boxes, and very soon 2-3TH per box.  500TH is only <500 mining boxes,  they will be shipping thousands of them next year.  Once the asic and pcb design is finalized/stable, there is nothing left for those companies to do but pump out boxes assembly line style.  And there won't be kid gloves like what those scammers avalon/bfl did back then when they had monopoly, it will be a no hold barrel who can pump out the most 2-3TH boxes the fastest before profit=hardware manufacturing cost, antminer is already doing that using 180GH boxes. 

Like the saying goes, during the gold rush the ones making the most money are those selling the shovels.

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December 24, 2013, 07:28:44 PM
 #13839

I use "expected" in the mathematical sense, to mean "average". If it's not working out like that, then either you're not allowing enough time for variance to reduce, or you're not taking into account network difficulty changes, or there's a problem at Slush's pool. It's shouldn't be too hard to figure out which if you have enough time and enough data.

Ya... I'm not dumb, I understand your usage of the terms, but academics and statistical modeling take a backseat occasionally during a discussion like this. Problem is no one is plotting the data, much less collecting it to quantify later for analysis; but I bet if you throw avg daily round times on a Pareto chart that this week and last show a major breakpoint in round length compared to a month ago. I feel like the reported "luck" is way off from what it actually is. We would get one 12 hour round per week before, now we almost get one per day.

I have been charting data for the network and for many pools for almost two years. The data is not pareto distributed, rather the average "luck" per n rounds is erlang distributed. PM me of you want more details, otherwise check out http://organofcorti.blogspot.com.au/search/label/weeklypoolstatistics.

Wow, kudos for taking action, to be honest I've been looking for something like this. I'll dig in and let you know if I have questions, thanks!

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InfiniteGrim
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December 24, 2013, 08:00:42 PM
 #13840

Can someone explain something to me...

My  ASIC blade #7 is saying its hashing at 10800 , yet Blade #1 is saying 10700. Now on the my account tab it says Blade #7 only has 1992 shares and is hashing at 6700, and Blade #1 has 3006 shares and is at 10500

What Gives?
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