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Question: What type of pool payouts do you prefer?
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Author Topic: [2.5+ EH] Slush Pool (slushpool.com); World's First Mining Pool  (Read 4325902 times)
KNK
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February 07, 2014, 04:07:11 PM
 #14681

I believe his own announcement stated when we approached 9xxx total hashing that the database choked. At some point shares above that value weren't happening for somebody out there trying to join this pool, but no it wasn't my shares being dropped, but that doesn't mean someone else's weren't. This would affect our relative position in the network, thus the restricted growth would lead to longer block times. The root cause does not have to be theft.

Didn't see such announcement (in fact the opposite 'There wasn't any issue in recent days'), but even if so it can't be a reason for 'our relative position in the network', because the share is accepted and if it's a block it's broadcasted no matter if it was stored in the database or not, which happens some time latter and is not related with anything else except someones reward being lower for a while.
Someones reward being lower for a while is also not a problem in this case, because the round have ended much more than 15min after that, so any share (lost or not) counted as 0 at that time.

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dlowings
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February 07, 2014, 04:27:58 PM
 #14682

nobody except Slush knows for certain if there were technical issues or not. Making assertive claims that "luck" is "pure" seems incredibly naive and idealistic. There's a pattern of activity that looks more like a technical problem was resolved.

If there was a problem, you wouldn't have been getting shares.  If Slush had been keeping blocks for himself, they woudl show up on blockchain.info.
So yes, pure luck. Read up on gaussian distributions.

I never claimed he was keeping shares. I believe his own announcement stated when we approached 9xxx total hashing that the database choked. At some point shares above that value weren't happening for somebody out there trying to join this pool, but no it wasn't my shares being dropped, but that doesn't mean someone else's weren't. This would affect our relative position in the network, thus the restricted growth would lead to longer block times. The root cause does not have to be theft.

Edit: announcement was on 2/2 when "900th was within reach"- database connectivity issues. Here we are 2/7 at 820, meaning quite a few have bailed. Less hashing due to people bailing=longer rounds. What did we have? Connectivity issues. Why didn't we hit 900? Connectivity issues. Why are we at 820? People left. Why? Connectivity issues. Why is our luck bad? Restricted growth. Why? Connectivity issues. What is the root cause? You get the point.

I'm presenting a theory, another way to look at this beyond the face value approach. I'm not claiming to know all the answers. Let me ask this. When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution? if so, Has our luck pattern fallen within a normal distribution spread?

The way I read his last statement of "no issues" yesterday was just that... The issue you pointed out that was posted form the 2nd I believe, was resolved and closed out.. I see this a lot in my line of work, where a client will try to correlate two separate notices where in fact the notices are simply put "two notices" no relation .

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fasteddie9987
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February 07, 2014, 04:41:08 PM
 #14683

Has everyone received mining payouts that were due? I should have got .01 sent to me yesterday but it has disappeared from my account and there is no record of it in the transaction history. Does it usually take this long or has it vanished?

I had a 0.01 payout yesterday, so I'd query this with Slush if I were you - make sure your payout address is right, and if it isn't what you expect it to be, change your account password right away!

I locked my address so that hasn't been changed.  I double checked to make sure.  I've sent Slush a pm.
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February 07, 2014, 04:53:09 PM
 #14684

What did we have? Connectivity issues. Why didn't we hit 900? Connectivity issues. Why are we at 820? People left. Why? Connectivity issues. Why is our luck bad? Restricted growth. Why? Connectivity issues. What is the root cause? You get the point.

I'm presenting a theory, another way to look at this beyond the face value approach. I'm not claiming to know all the answers. Let me ask this. When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution? if so, Has our luck pattern fallen within a normal distribution spread?
An old post from Satoshi about similar concerns https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=61.msg433#msg433 read the last words in that thread Smiley i.e. "Bitcoin gold rush paranoia I guess"

Quote
When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution
When you toss a coin and 99 times it was heads, what is the chance for the 100 it's heads or tails?

EDIT: What i want to say is that even if currently GHash.IO and BTC Guild are together 51% of the network there is chance that they won't find a block in the next 24h and it will be perfectly normal (though very very very) BAD LUCK

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bebooba11
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February 07, 2014, 05:17:20 PM
 #14685

BLOCKS EVERYWHERE!!!!!! YAY SLUSH!
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February 07, 2014, 05:25:38 PM
 #14686

What did we have? Connectivity issues. Why didn't we hit 900? Connectivity issues. Why are we at 820? People left. Why? Connectivity issues. Why is our luck bad? Restricted growth. Why? Connectivity issues. What is the root cause? You get the point.

I'm presenting a theory, another way to look at this beyond the face value approach. I'm not claiming to know all the answers. Let me ask this. When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution? if so, Has our luck pattern fallen within a normal distribution spread?
An old post from Satoshi about similar concerns https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=61.msg433#msg433 read the last words in that thread Smiley i.e. "Bitcoin gold rush paranoia I guess"

Quote
When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution
When you toss a coin and 99 times it was heads, what is the chance for the 100 it's heads or tails?

EDIT: What i want to say is that even if currently GHash.IO and BTC Guild are together 51% of the network there is chance that they won't find a block in the next 24h and it will be perfectly normal (though very very very) BAD LUCK

Actually its the same every time you flip it. .   It's 50/50 every single time (unless it somehow by some small chance it lands on the edge of the coin, which is some infintesimal chance). .   Thats why it makes no sense to bet black when its hit red 20 previous times on a roulette wheel ..   However, the odds of it hitting heads 99 times in a row and then hitting tails is the ridiculous odds. ..
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February 07, 2014, 05:29:04 PM
 #14687

What did we have? Connectivity issues. Why didn't we hit 900? Connectivity issues. Why are we at 820? People left. Why? Connectivity issues. Why is our luck bad? Restricted growth. Why? Connectivity issues. What is the root cause? You get the point.

I'm presenting a theory, another way to look at this beyond the face value approach. I'm not claiming to know all the answers. Let me ask this. When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution? if so, Has our luck pattern fallen within a normal distribution spread?
An old post from Satoshi about similar concerns https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=61.msg433#msg433 read the last words in that thread Smiley i.e. "Bitcoin gold rush paranoia I guess"

Quote
When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution
When you toss a coin and 99 times it was heads, what is the chance for the 100 it's heads or tails?

EDIT: What i want to say is that even if currently GHash.IO and BTC Guild are together 51% of the network there is chance that they won't find a block in the next 24h and it will be perfectly normal (though very very very) BAD LUCK

Actually its the same every time you flip it. .   It's 50/50 every single time (unless it somehow by some small chance it lands on the edge of the coin, which is some infintesimal chance). .   Thats why it makes no sense to bet black when its hit red 20 previous times on a roulette wheel ..   However, the odds of it hitting heads 99 times in a row and then hitting tails is the ridiculous odds. ..

Wesley Snipes told me to always bet on black!

A moose once bit my sister.
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February 07, 2014, 05:31:32 PM
 #14688

What did we have? Connectivity issues. Why didn't we hit 900? Connectivity issues. Why are we at 820? People left. Why? Connectivity issues. Why is our luck bad? Restricted growth. Why? Connectivity issues. What is the root cause? You get the point.

I'm presenting a theory, another way to look at this beyond the face value approach. I'm not claiming to know all the answers. Let me ask this. When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution? if so, Has our luck pattern fallen within a normal distribution spread?
An old post from Satoshi about similar concerns https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=61.msg433#msg433 read the last words in that thread Smiley i.e. "Bitcoin gold rush paranoia I guess"

Quote
When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution
When you toss a coin and 99 times it was heads, what is the chance for the 100 it's heads or tails?

EDIT: What i want to say is that even if currently GHash.IO and BTC Guild are together 51% of the network there is chance that they won't find a block in the next 24h and it will be perfectly normal (though very very very) BAD LUCK

Actually its the same every time you flip it. .   It's 50/50 every single time (unless it somehow by some small chance it lands on the edge of the coin, which is some infintesimal chance). .   Thats why it makes no sense to bet black when its hit red 20 previous times on a roulette wheel ..   However, the odds of it hitting heads 99 times in a row and then hitting tails is the ridiculous odds. ..

Wesley Snipes told me to always bet on black!


BENJY!!!!!
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February 07, 2014, 05:33:27 PM
 #14689

Really, if the coin lands heads 99 times in a row or the wheel hits black 99 times in a row, the smart money would be to bet on heads/black. In a perfect system each spin/flip would be a 50% chance, but there is a non-zero chance that there is a systemic problem in the gaming system and the odds are not really 50% per side. Don't bet against the streak. Wink

Not that this really has anything to do with Slush's pool.
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February 07, 2014, 05:52:48 PM
 #14690

rolling, rolling, rolling. .. . .

It's kind of crazy, last 12 hours is amazing, yet the 24 hour is still pretty low (and weekly as well).  all things eventually work themselves out.
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February 07, 2014, 05:55:21 PM
 #14691

What did we have? Connectivity issues. Why didn't we hit 900? Connectivity issues. Why are we at 820? People left. Why? Connectivity issues. Why is our luck bad? Restricted growth. Why? Connectivity issues. What is the root cause? You get the point.

I'm presenting a theory, another way to look at this beyond the face value approach. I'm not claiming to know all the answers. Let me ask this. When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution? if so, Has our luck pattern fallen within a normal distribution spread?
An old post from Satoshi about similar concerns https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=61.msg433#msg433 read the last words in that thread Smiley i.e. "Bitcoin gold rush paranoia I guess"

Quote
When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution
When you toss a coin and 99 times it was heads, what is the chance for the 100 it's heads or tails?

EDIT: What i want to say is that even if currently GHash.IO and BTC Guild are together 51% of the network there is chance that they won't find a block in the next 24h and it will be perfectly normal (though very very very) BAD LUCK

Actually its the same every time you flip it. .   It's 50/50 every single time (unless it somehow by some small chance it lands on the edge of the coin, which is some infintesimal chance). .   Thats why it makes no sense to bet black when its hit red 20 previous times on a roulette wheel ..   However, the odds of it hitting heads 99 times in a row and then hitting tails is the ridiculous odds. ..

Wesley Snipes told me to always bet on black!


BENJY!!!!!

Hey nowwwwwww

A moose once bit my sister.
binja9
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February 07, 2014, 06:31:39 PM
 #14692

It's looking better now

I will say well done Slush for all your efforts in keeping this pool going.

For all the conspiracy theorists and serial complainers out below, thank you for your ever more imaginative theories and snipes but seriously stop clock watching, put a smile on ya faces and accept that sometimes shit just happens...



a 30 minute round, and yet no one is uncomplaining Smiley

Go Slush!
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February 07, 2014, 06:47:00 PM
 #14693

It's looking better now

I will say well done Slush for all your efforts in keeping this pool going.

For all the conspiracy theorists and serial complainers out below, thank you for your ever more imaginative theories and snipes but seriously stop clock watching, put a smile on ya faces and accept that sometimes shit just happens...



a 30 minute round, and yet no one is uncomplaining Smiley

Go Slush!
Quite so!
Just as a newbie matter of interest, how is it that it takes 100 confirmations to get into ones account, but from the instigation of the transfer to your wallet, it only takes minutes - surely, then payout has to go through the blockchain as well, but perhaps ones wallet only requires a lesser number of confirmations..............?
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February 07, 2014, 06:49:19 PM
 #14694

Actually its the same every time you flip it. .   It's 50/50 every single time (unless it somehow by some small chance it lands on the edge of the coin, which is some infintesimal chance). .   Thats why it makes no sense to bet black when its hit red 20 previous times on a roulette wheel ..   However, the odds of it hitting heads 99 times in a row and then hitting tails is the ridiculous odds. ..

Exactly and for bitcoin it means, that with each share there is 1/difficulty chance to find a block, while it's not guaranteed that you'll find one after difficulty shares, but on average you should

Statistically there should be 50 heads/reds and 50 tails/blacks form 100 on average, but it is possible to have 100 tails/blacks in a row just like any other number
 again statistically - once in every 100 throws there will be exactly 42 heads
 and again - half of the 100 throws series will have more than 50 heads ...
    and it's possible that all those 'over 50 heads' series are from 100 heads

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February 07, 2014, 06:50:24 PM
 #14695

Just as a newbie matter of interest, how is it that it takes 100 confirmations to get into ones account, but from the instigation of the transfer to your wallet, it only takes minutes - surely, then payout has to go through the blockchain as well, but perhaps ones wallet only requires a lesser number of confirmations..............?

100 confirmations is basically to ensure the integrity of the blockchain - see here for more

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Confirmation

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KNK
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February 07, 2014, 06:59:15 PM
 #14696

Just as a newbie matter of interest, how is it that it takes 100 confirmations to get into ones account, but from the instigation of the transfer to your wallet, it only takes minutes - surely, then payout has to go through the blockchain as well, but perhaps ones wallet only requires a lesser number of confirmations..............?
As an experiment for you ...
Once you receive your payment try to spend it before there are 120 confirmations ...

The bitcoin protocol requires 120 confirmations in order to accept a transaction as valid, which comes from the fact that there should be 120 blocks based on this one (which includes the transaction) to accept it as valid and part of the longest chain.

Yes, there are 120 not 100 confirmations required, so in fact the pool pays your reward before it is truly accepted as valid and you can't spend the money you got for a much longer period

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KNK
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February 07, 2014, 07:03:49 PM
 #14697


In my post i was referring to the last sentence there 'The classic bitcoin client won't show generated coins as confirmed until the 120th block.', because that means at least (big) part of the network will not accept your transaction before those 120 blocks

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February 07, 2014, 08:23:12 PM
 #14698

This current "Luck"....is outright RETARDED.  Huge % drops in 7 & 30 DMA.  

It's funny because a few pages back, well maybe a few weeks ago, someone was giving me a bunch of shit because I was saying that complaining about "luck" is on topic. They were trying to say comments about luck were meaningless. I dunno, I've long speculated that our luck drops heavily when there is a technical problem backstage that we are unaware of, part of this has to do with the consecutive long blocks and when they clear up we usually have a run of incredibly good luck. I've also noticed, for whatever reason, blocks seem longer on the weekends. These types of pattern always seem to me like there's more to it than pure forces of luck. I do wonder right now if there's some issue with our pool that we just don't know about...


Luck :success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions.
 
And I still say complaining about "luck" is meaningless. I never said complaining about technical issues was! And if your own analysis of patterns of slow weekends, ect… leads you to believe that there are background issues then I respect that. I think my broader point was "luck" as defined above, isn't something you really can complain about, because it's by chance rather than by action. Either way I see you are still here so you must have "Faith" and that's a WHOLE different thing  Cheesy

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February 07, 2014, 09:09:55 PM
 #14699

looks like a couple of folks more left the building... below 800 now
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February 07, 2014, 09:17:01 PM
 #14700

looks like a couple of folks more left the building... below 800 now

There are some heavy storms around at the moment, lots of power outages in south east Europe, maybe that could account for some of the missing users.

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