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Author Topic: [40+ PH] SlushPool (slushpool.com); World's First Mining Pool  (Read 3853839 times)
organofcorti
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February 11, 2014, 03:39:55 AM
 #14801

So 37% day luck np happens, 70% week luck yeah hmm.... and 91% month.... we sure something isn't wrong?  Might have to switch soonish myself but rather support spreading out hash power.

I'm never sure, but then people jump on me and say I'm a conspiracy theorist. I dunno, my opinion is our luck will improve once the database issues are resolved, just like last time it choked when we were getting close to 900TH/S. BUT, nobody wants to even consider the possibility that it's an issue backstage on the pool, which honestly is what appears to be happening. I love that "IT guy" mentality where anyone exploring potential explanations for what looks to be a pattern of "luck" is labeled as an idiot.

I dunno, seems very funky.  just look at when everything is going smooth how quickly the confirmations for blocks found go....but when there is a glitch, the blocks take forever to get confirmations.  one block lasts 23 hours to confirm.  how many "website under service" messages have we seen today ?  all points to issues behind the scenes.  I think during bad luck collective hashing power should be pointed to BTCGuild ...LoL.  those guys find blocks left and right...never a sad 30% dry spell for so many days.  in the past  7 days or so our month luck dropped big time.  What the feezy ?

I don't think anyone sensible would label someone "an idiot" just for looking at 'potential explanations for what looks to be a pattern of "luck" '. What often does get one's goat is when the potential explanations are so wrong headed that they just cloud the issue.

To work out if slush's pool's "luck" is unusual or not:

1. Get an average of difficulty 1 equivalent accepted shares / expected shares (mining difficulty for each block) for the last  "n" blocks.
2. Using the Erlang distribution, calculate the CDF using x = the average you calculated, k and lambda both = number of blocks.

You can use Wolfram Alpha if you don't have access to statistical software. Here's an example using a 10 block average average accepted/expected of 1.1:

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=erlang+distribution+Pr%28x+%3C%3D+1.1%29+%2C+k%3D10%2C+lambda%3D10

In terms of bad luck, if the answer is > 0.99 then that is pretty bad and would happen only once in one hundred reruns of k blocks. Likewise, and answer of 0.9999 would happen only once in ten thousand reruns of k blocks. If you'd averaged the last one hundred blocks and you got 0.9999, there would be good grounds to think something funky is going on. Otherwise, maybe not.

Give it a try and report back, and do ask questions if I haven't been clear.

Doing this is the only way anyone will take your concerns about 'bad luck' seriously.

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eoakland
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February 11, 2014, 03:45:31 AM
 #14802


"I don't think anyone sensible would label someone "an idiot" just for looking at 'potential explanations for what looks to be a pattern of "luck" '. What often does get one's goat is when the potential explanations are so wrong headed that they just cloud the issue.

To work out if slush's pool's "luck" is unusual or not:

1. Get an average of difficulty 1 equivalent accepted shares / expected shares (mining difficulty for eachblock) for the last  "n" blocks.
2. Using the Erlang distribution, calculate the CDF using x = the average you calculated, k and lambda both = number of blocks.

You can use Wolfram Alpha if you don't have access to statistical software. Here's an example using a 10 block average average accepted/expected of 1.1:

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=erlang+distribution+Pr%28x+%3C%3D+1.1%29+%2C+k%3D10%2C+lambda%3D10

In terms of bad luck, if the answer is > 0.99 then that is pretty bad and would happen only once in one hundred reruns of k blocks. Likewise, and answer of 0.9999 would happen only once in ten thousand reruns of k blocks. If you'd averaged the last one hundred blocks and you got 0.9999, there would be good grounds to think something funky is going on. Otherwise, maybe not.

Give it a try and report back, and do ask questions if I haven't been clear.

Doing this is the only way anyone will take your concerns about 'bad luck' seriously."




+1 to whatever this guy said, it reads REALLY smart...LoL.  

Scyntech
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February 11, 2014, 03:48:43 AM
 #14803


"I don't think anyone sensible would label someone "an idiot" just for looking at 'potential explanations for what looks to be a pattern of "luck" '. What often does get one's goat is when the potential explanations are so wrong headed that they just cloud the issue.

To work out if slush's pool's "luck" is unusual or not:

1. Get an average of difficulty 1 equivalent accepted shares / expected shares (mining difficulty for eachblock) for the last  "n" blocks.
2. Using the Erlang distribution, calculate the CDF using x = the average you calculated, k and lambda both = number of blocks.

You can use Wolfram Alpha if you don't have access to statistical software. Here's an example using a 10 block average average accepted/expected of 1.1:

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=erlang+distribution+Pr%28x+%3C%3D+1.1%29+%2C+k%3D10%2C+lambda%3D10

In terms of bad luck, if the answer is > 0.99 then that is pretty bad and would happen only once in one hundred reruns of k blocks. Likewise, and answer of 0.9999 would happen only once in ten thousand reruns of k blocks. If you'd averaged the last one hundred blocks and you got 0.9999, there would be good grounds to think something funky is going on. Otherwise, maybe not.

Give it a try and report back, and do ask questions if I haven't been clear.

Doing this is the only way anyone will take your concerns about 'bad luck' seriously."




+1 to whatever this guy said, it reads REALLY smart...LoL.  

seriously smart stuffs

organofcorti
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February 11, 2014, 04:18:25 AM
 #14804

seriously smart stuffs

I'm not really interested in kudos, I'm just keen for someone to try it and report back. I'm hoping that if a few regular posters learn how to do this it will help keep freak outs to a minimum.

Give it a try, Scyntech. If there's anything you didn't understand I'll explain it again. Anyone should be able to do this just by following the steps and using wolframalpha, but only if I explained it properly.

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eoakland
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February 11, 2014, 04:42:37 AM
 #14805

seriously smart stuffs

I'm not really interested in kudos, I'm just keen for someone to try it and report back. I'm hoping that if a few regular posters learn how to do this it will help keep freak outs to a minimum.

Give it a try, Scyntech. If there's anything you didn't understand I'll explain it again. Anyone should be able to do this just by following the steps and using wolframalpha, but only if I explained it properly.

Organofcorti,

you do realize that to many the formula you speak of, and the terms you use are a foreign language right ?   (me included)  I took a look at it, but quickly turned away because it reminds me of something I would need a TI-83 calculator for =)

necro_nemesis
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February 11, 2014, 04:48:36 AM
 #14806

Didn't we just recently calculate how many gigawatts to expect from our flux capacitor?  We've had some luck today.  Just happens to be bad.  Tomorrow is another day.
organofcorti
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February 11, 2014, 05:10:00 AM
 #14807

seriously smart stuffs

I'm not really interested in kudos, I'm just keen for someone to try it and report back. I'm hoping that if a few regular posters learn how to do this it will help keep freak outs to a minimum.

Give it a try, Scyntech. If there's anything you didn't understand I'll explain it again. Anyone should be able to do this just by following the steps and using wolframalpha, but only if I explained it properly.

Organofcorti,

you do realize that to many the formula you speak of, and the terms you use are a foreign language right ?   (me included)  I took a look at it, but quickly turned away because it reminds me of something I would need a TI-83 calculator for =)

OK, thanks for the feedback. Here's a simplified version:

1. Got to http://mining.bitcoin.cz/stats/
2. Add up all the numbers in the "Total shares" column.
3. Follow each link under "Block #" to find the difficulty at which each block was solved. (For orphaned blocks, assume the same as the last difficulty). Add up all the difficulties from each block.
4. Divide the result of step 2 by the result of step 3. Call this number "X"
5. Go to http://www.wolframalpha.com/
6. In the text box, enter the following, substituting your value for X:

erlang distribution Pr(x <= X) , k=20, lambda=20



So if you calculated X as 1.1, you'd enter:

erlang distribution Pr(x <= 1.1) , k=20, lambda=20


We use  k=20 and lambda=20 since there are twenty blocks on the basic stats page. If you were to use one hundred blocks, change the values to k=100 and lambda=100.


I think if you follow that step by step you should be fine. After that you just need to understand the results, but I'll help you with that once you get this part done.

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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eoakland
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February 11, 2014, 05:16:39 AM
 #14808

Didn't we just recently calculate how many gigawatts to expect from our flux capacitor?  We've had some luck today.  Just happens to be bad.  Tomorrow is another day.

yes, you are correct.  Now the only issue is how do we power that flux...plutonium is not readily available at our local Costco---you wouldn't happen to have a flyer in your pocket with the information as to when lightening will strike....would ya ?   =)


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*bamf!* you've just been eaten by a gr00.


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February 11, 2014, 06:01:09 AM
 #14809

(pushes eoakland to the side}

Nice job, organofcorti.   Much appreciated.

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eoakland
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February 11, 2014, 06:19:42 AM
 #14810

(pushes eoakland to the side}

Nice job, organofcorti.   Much appreciated.

@chopsticks, i seriously doubt you have ever pushed anyone.  you have more than likely been on the receiving end of one too many pushes and pelvic thrusts bottom boy.

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February 11, 2014, 06:36:09 AM
 #14811

seriously smart stuffs

I'm not really interested in kudos, I'm just keen for someone to try it and report back. I'm hoping that if a few regular posters learn how to do this it will help keep freak outs to a minimum.

Give it a try, Scyntech. If there's anything you didn't understand I'll explain it again. Anyone should be able to do this just by following the steps and using wolframalpha, but only if I explained it properly.

Organofcorti,

you do realize that to many the formula you speak of, and the terms you use are a foreign language right ?   (me included)  I took a look at it, but quickly turned away because it reminds me of something I would need a TI-83 calculator for =)

OK, thanks for the feedback. Here's a simplified version:

1. Got to http://mining.bitcoin.cz/stats/
2. Add up all the numbers in the "Total shares" column.
3. Follow each link under "Block #" to find the difficulty at which each block was solved. (For orphaned blocks, assume the same as the last difficulty). Add up all the difficulties from each block.
4. Divide the result of step 2 by the result of step 3. Call this number "X"
5. Go to http://www.wolframalpha.com/
6. In the text box, enter the following, substituting your value for X:

erlang distribution Pr(x <= X) , k=20, lambda=20



So if you calculated X as 1.1, you'd enter:

erlang distribution Pr(x <= 1.1) , k=20, lambda=20


We use  k=20 and lambda=20 since there are twenty blocks on the basic stats page. If you were to use one hundred blocks, change the values to k=100 and lambda=100.


I think if you follow that step by step you should be fine. After that you just need to understand the results, but I'll help you with that once you get this part done.

Thanks for the Formula's and explanation. I for one will try this. Probably not until the weekend, But I will get back to you with my results.

I won't ask for donations but I will ask for help. And I won't give donations but I will help if I can.
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February 11, 2014, 06:39:09 AM
 #14812

(pushes eoakland to the side}

Nice job, organofcorti.   Much appreciated.

@chopsticks, i seriously doubt you have ever pushed anyone.  you have more than likely been on the receiving end of one too many pushes and pelvic thrusts bottom boy.

@eokland, What's up with the trust warnings on your profile? Not trying to be an ass, I just have never seen that before. Extreme Caution sounds serious?

I won't ask for donations but I will ask for help. And I won't give donations but I will help if I can.
eoakland
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February 11, 2014, 06:51:44 AM
 #14813

(pushes eoakland to the side}

Nice job, organofcorti.   Much appreciated.

@chopsticks, i seriously doubt you have ever pushed anyone.  you have more than likely been on the receiving end of one too many pushes and pelvic thrusts bottom boy.

@eokland, What's up with the trust warnings on your profile? Not trying to be an ass, I just have never seen that before. Extreme Caution sounds serious?

that's funny you ask bro, click on the trust section.  i sold/fronted without payment something to someone, double-checked that they were sure, they confirmed, i shipped, next thing i know the dude refused it, and instead of sending back 2 day priority....my miner is stuck in USPS return limbo for 21 days.....the buyer did not keep his word one too many times.  so i finally left him negative feedback and he returned the favor.  

if you click on my feedback you can see the story and reference link.  


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February 11, 2014, 07:11:17 AM
 #14814

(pushes eoakland to the side}

Nice job, organofcorti.   Much appreciated.

@chopsticks, i seriously doubt you have ever pushed anyone.  you have more than likely been on the receiving end of one too many pushes and pelvic thrusts bottom boy.

@eokland, What's up with the trust warnings on your profile? Not trying to be an ass, I just have never seen that before. Extreme Caution sounds serious?

that's funny you ask bro, click on the trust section.  i sold/fronted without payment something to someone, double-checked that they were sure, they confirmed, i shipped, next thing i know the dude refused it, and instead of sending back 2 day priority....my miner is stuck in USPS return limbo for 21 days.....the buyer did not keep his word one too many times.  so i finally left him negative feedback and he returned the favor.  



if you click on my feedback you can see the story and reference link.  



Got It. I never new you could click on that trust (feedback ) link. Sounds like you got a bad rap on that one. Hope things work out for you.

I won't ask for donations but I will ask for help. And I won't give donations but I will help if I can.
organofcorti
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February 11, 2014, 09:29:16 AM
 #14815

...........

Thanks for the Formula's and explanation. I for one will try this. Probably not until the weekend, But I will get back to you with my results.

I'll be interested to see how you go. Keep us posted?

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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bebooba11
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February 11, 2014, 01:09:49 PM
 #14816

Sorry Slush. Had to hop out. I'll be back Smiley
chopsticks
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February 11, 2014, 02:09:48 PM
 #14817

(pushes eoakland to the side}

Nice job, organofcorti.   Much appreciated.

@chopsticks, i seriously doubt you have ever pushed anyone.  you have more than likely been on the receiving end of one too many pushes and pelvic thrusts bottom boy.

{screams YIPPEEE-KAI-YAY motherfucker and slams eoakland upside the head with a TRUST, not thrust, of his his pelvis}

Overly sensitive today?
You may have gotten a bad rap on the trust rating but you sure are a sensitive monkey.

Sure,  I'm the one person on the planet who has never pushed anyone.

But you.

{push}

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eoakland
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February 11, 2014, 03:33:50 PM
 #14818

(pushes eoakland to the side}

Nice job, organofcorti.   Much appreciated.

@chopsticks, i seriously doubt you have ever pushed anyone.  you have more than likely been on the receiving end of one too many pushes and pelvic thrusts bottom boy.

{screams YIPPEEE-KAI-YAY motherfucker and slams eoakland upside the head with a TRUST, not thrust, of his his pelvis}

Overly sensitive today?
You may have gotten a bad rap on the trust rating but you sure are a sensitive monkey.

Sure,  I'm the one person on the planet who has never pushed anyone.

But you.

{push}

@chopsticks, ok...now that one was funny.  i can see the humor in your last post.  =)   

perhaps a good cup of café and statistical climb in pool luck have helped.  have a good day chopsticks

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February 11, 2014, 04:44:08 PM
 #14819

So 37% day luck np happens, 70% week luck yeah hmm.... and 91% month.... we sure something isn't wrong?  Might have to switch soonish myself but rather support spreading out hash power.

I'm never sure, but then people jump on me and say I'm a conspiracy theorist. I dunno, my opinion is our luck will improve once the database issues are resolved, just like last time it choked when we were getting close to 900TH/S. BUT, nobody wants to even consider the possibility that it's an issue backstage on the pool, which honestly is what appears to be happening. I love that "IT guy" mentality where anyone exploring potential explanations for what looks to be a pattern of "luck" is labeled as an idiot.

I dunno, seems very funky.  just look at when everything is going smooth how quickly the confirmations for blocks found go....but when there is a glitch, the blocks take forever to get confirmations.  one block lasts 23 hours to confirm.  how many "website under service" messages have we seen today ?  all points to issues behind the scenes.  I think during bad luck collective hashing power should be pointed to BTCGuild ...LoL.  those guys find blocks left and right...never a sad 30% dry spell for so many days.  in the past  7 days or so our month luck dropped big time.  What the feezy ?

I'm not sure who you talk to, but if you look at the BTCguild thread, You'll see that they are all commenting on a bad luck streak as well.

30% worth i think not.   don't get me wrong...like slush pool...just hate this "bad luck" streak.  i paid too much to get jalapeno paydays.

just mentioning u bought a jalapeno means you paid too much. 5-7gh/s price when a cube for the same price does 30-38gh/s?
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February 11, 2014, 04:50:08 PM
 #14820

Wow! My miner found a block. Number 285163. A first for me.

Mine found 2 a couple days ago throughout a single day and my rig is microscopic in comparison to what I see out there. Is that equivalent lightning striking twice?

yes very odd.. a friends 60gh/s rig found 2 blocks last week. essentially an impossible feat in comparison. but luck is luck, or someone is manipulating the data
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