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Author Topic: [2.5+ EH] Slush Pool (slushpool.com); World's First Mining Pool  (Read 4326836 times)
bspurloc
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February 11, 2014, 04:44:08 PM
 #14801

So 37% day luck np happens, 70% week luck yeah hmm.... and 91% month.... we sure something isn't wrong?  Might have to switch soonish myself but rather support spreading out hash power.

I'm never sure, but then people jump on me and say I'm a conspiracy theorist. I dunno, my opinion is our luck will improve once the database issues are resolved, just like last time it choked when we were getting close to 900TH/S. BUT, nobody wants to even consider the possibility that it's an issue backstage on the pool, which honestly is what appears to be happening. I love that "IT guy" mentality where anyone exploring potential explanations for what looks to be a pattern of "luck" is labeled as an idiot.

I dunno, seems very funky.  just look at when everything is going smooth how quickly the confirmations for blocks found go....but when there is a glitch, the blocks take forever to get confirmations.  one block lasts 23 hours to confirm.  how many "website under service" messages have we seen today ?  all points to issues behind the scenes.  I think during bad luck collective hashing power should be pointed to BTCGuild ...LoL.  those guys find blocks left and right...never a sad 30% dry spell for so many days.  in the past  7 days or so our month luck dropped big time.  What the feezy ?

I'm not sure who you talk to, but if you look at the BTCguild thread, You'll see that they are all commenting on a bad luck streak as well.

30% worth i think not.   don't get me wrong...like slush pool...just hate this "bad luck" streak.  i paid too much to get jalapeno paydays.

just mentioning u bought a jalapeno means you paid too much. 5-7gh/s price when a cube for the same price does 30-38gh/s?
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bspurloc
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February 11, 2014, 04:50:08 PM
 #14802

Wow! My miner found a block. Number 285163. A first for me.

Mine found 2 a couple days ago throughout a single day and my rig is microscopic in comparison to what I see out there. Is that equivalent lightning striking twice?

yes very odd.. a friends 60gh/s rig found 2 blocks last week. essentially an impossible feat in comparison. but luck is luck, or someone is manipulating the data
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February 11, 2014, 06:25:29 PM
 #14803

Wow! My miner found a block. Number 285163. A first for me.

Mine found 2 a couple days ago throughout a single day and my rig is microscopic in comparison to what I see out there. Is that equivalent lightning striking twice?

yes very odd.. a friends 60gh/s rig found 2 blocks last week. essentially an impossible feat in comparison. but luck is luck, or someone is manipulating the data

I have to ask: do you get any kind of "Bonus" when your hardware finds a Block? Or the usual reward you would get for participating?

i am the one without any idea what he is doing, also i take donations ^^
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February 11, 2014, 06:36:09 PM
 #14804

Wow! My miner found a block. Number 285163. A first for me.

Mine found 2 a couple days ago throughout a single day and my rig is microscopic in comparison to what I see out there. Is that equivalent lightning striking twice?

yes very odd.. a friends 60gh/s rig found 2 blocks last week. essentially an impossible feat in comparison. but luck is luck, or someone is manipulating the data

I have to ask: do you get any kind of "Bonus" when your hardware finds a Block? Or the usual reward you would get for participating?

usual reward, no bonus
cr1776
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February 11, 2014, 06:47:52 PM
 #14805

Wow! My miner found a block. Number 285163. A first for me.

Mine found 2 a couple days ago throughout a single day and my rig is microscopic in comparison to what I see out there. Is that equivalent lightning striking twice?

yes very odd.. a friends 60gh/s rig found 2 blocks last week. essentially an impossible feat in comparison. but luck is luck, or someone is manipulating the data

I have to ask: do you get any kind of "Bonus" when your hardware finds a Block? Or the usual reward you would get for participating?

It depends on the pool. With Slush, no bonus.  Other pools have different rules - p2pool pays a 0.5% bonus to the person who finds the block.
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February 11, 2014, 06:48:00 PM
 #14806

...........

Thanks for the Formula's and explanation. I for one will try this. Probably not until the weekend, But I will get back to you with my results.

I'll be interested to see how you go. Keep us posted?

OK so here is what I got:

Round 21628 Thru 21657 = 30 Rounds

Total Shares = 78149042396

All blocks solved at Difficulty - 2,621,404,453.06

2,621,404,453.06 * 30 = 78,642,133,591.8

So Total Shares - 78149042396/78,642,133,591.8 (Difficulty * 30) = x

x = .993729936189684

k=30, lambda=30, x=.993729936189684

RESULT = .5105800139110

OK! Now it's up to you to tell me/us what this number means  Huh

Thanks

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February 11, 2014, 07:15:57 PM
 #14807

...........

Thanks for the Formula's and explanation. I for one will try this. Probably not until the weekend, But I will get back to you with my results.

I'll be interested to see how you go. Keep us posted?

OK so here is what I got:

Round 21628 Thru 21657 = 30 Rounds

Total Shares = 78149042396

All blocks solved at Difficulty - 2,621,404,453.06

2,621,404,453.06 * 30 = 78,642,133,591.8

So Total Shares - 78149042396/78,642,133,591.8 (Difficulty * 30) = x

x = .993729936189684

k=30, lambda=30, x=.993729936189684

RESULT = .5105800139110

OK! Now it's up to you to tell me/us what this number means  Huh

Thanks

If you convert the numbers to letters it spells out,,,,,,

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organofcorti
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February 11, 2014, 09:49:07 PM
 #14808

...........

Thanks for the Formula's and explanation. I for one will try this. Probably not until the weekend, But I will get back to you with my results.

I'll be interested to see how you go. Keep us posted?

OK so here is what I got:

Round 21628 Thru 21657 = 30 Rounds

Total Shares = 78149042396

All blocks solved at Difficulty - 2,621,404,453.06

2,621,404,453.06 * 30 = 78,642,133,591.8

So Total Shares - 78149042396/78,642,133,591.8 (Difficulty * 30) = x

x = .993729936189684

k=30, lambda=30, x=.993729936189684

RESULT = .5105800139110

OK! Now it's up to you to tell me/us what this number means  Huh

Thanks


The "RESULT" is the Erlang distribution cumulative distribution function p-value. From Wikipedia, the CDF "is the probability of observing a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed".

In this case results refer to the lower tail probability, so given a value of 0.5105 this means that there is a probability of 0.5105 of observing actual shares/expected shares of 0.9937 or less.

In other words: If you did the same thing for one hundred other group of 30 blocks, you'd get better luck 51.05% of the time (and worse luck 49.95% of the time).

So the 30 blocks that you tested were very close to perfectly neutral luck.

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PostMixer
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February 11, 2014, 10:09:42 PM
 #14809

...........

Thanks for the Formula's and explanation. I for one will try this. Probably not until the weekend, But I will get back to you with my results.

I'll be interested to see how you go. Keep us posted?

OK so here is what I got:

Round 21628 Thru 21657 = 30 Rounds

Total Shares = 78149042396

All blocks solved at Difficulty - 2,621,404,453.06

2,621,404,453.06 * 30 = 78,642,133,591.8

So Total Shares - 78149042396/78,642,133,591.8 (Difficulty * 30) = x

x = .993729936189684

k=30, lambda=30, x=.993729936189684

RESULT = .5105800139110

OK! Now it's up to you to tell me/us what this number means  Huh

Thanks


The RESULT is the Erlang distribution cumulative distribution function. From Wikipedia, the CDF "is the probability of observing a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed".

In this case results refer to the lower tail probability, so given a value of 0.5105 this means that there is a probability of 0.5105 of observing actual shares/expected shares of 0.9937 or less.

In other words: If you did the same thing for one hundred other group of 30 blocks, you'd get better luck 51.05% of the time (and worse luck 49.95% of the time).

So the 30 blocks that you tested were very very close to perfectly neutral luck.


Well again Organofcorti, thank you for that! It's the most tangible explanation I have seen to date regarding the pool "luck". I hope others grasp this as well and realize that things seem pretty neutral. I know it sucks to have these LONG blocks, but I do think it's right in line with the "luck"  of this pool overtime. Translation, I don't think there is any monkey business going on behind the curtain  Grin

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February 11, 2014, 10:22:00 PM
 #14810

Running 30Ghs with this long blocks. bad luck brian

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February 11, 2014, 11:01:01 PM
 #14811

91% 30-day luck.. That's pretty awful Sad

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February 11, 2014, 11:17:37 PM
 #14812

Completely new to this so if my question is stupid I will say I am sorry now.  I have setup cgminer and configured a batch file to run it.  I was not able to get the batch file in the knowledgebase to work but I have gotten it launched with this

I:\CGMiner\cgminer.exe -o stratum+tcp://stratum.bitcoin.cz:3333 -u XXXX.worker1 -p MyPassword

However, when I turn on verbose logging I see this...

(5s):0.00 (avg): 0.000h/s |A:0 R:0 HW:0 WV:0.0/m

This makes me suspect its not actually working. So here are my questions:

Is it working and there is simply nothing to work on now?
Is it not working and there is an issue with my batch file? 
Is it not working and likely a firewall type issue?
Is there a way to tell how many MHash/s I am running?

Any help would be appreciated.  I do see other messages besides the above such as work update received and but my numbers continue to be 0

(5s) and (avg) are your average hashrates for the last 5 seconds and from the program start respectively.
(You can find this information in the CGminer README file.)
So you're running zero MHash/s. So: It's not working.
The other messages can help you in finding the reason.
bobsmoke
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February 11, 2014, 11:21:15 PM
 #14813

...........

Thanks for the Formula's and explanation. I for one will try this. Probably not until the weekend, But I will get back to you with my results.

I'll be interested to see how you go. Keep us posted?

OK so here is what I got:

Round 21628 Thru 21657 = 30 Rounds

Total Shares = 78149042396

All blocks solved at Difficulty - 2,621,404,453.06

2,621,404,453.06 * 30 = 78,642,133,591.8

So Total Shares - 78149042396/78,642,133,591.8 (Difficulty * 30) = x

x = .993729936189684

k=30, lambda=30, x=.993729936189684

RESULT = .5105800139110

OK! Now it's up to you to tell me/us what this number means  Huh

Thanks


I went trough the same drill and got the same numbers just to corroborate the effort of PostMixer!
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February 11, 2014, 11:25:17 PM
 #14814

...........

Thanks for the Formula's and explanation. I for one will try this. Probably not until the weekend, But I will get back to you with my results.

I'll be interested to see how you go. Keep us posted?

OK so here is what I got:

Round 21628 Thru 21657 = 30 Rounds

Total Shares = 78149042396

All blocks solved at Difficulty - 2,621,404,453.06

2,621,404,453.06 * 30 = 78,642,133,591.8

So Total Shares - 78149042396/78,642,133,591.8 (Difficulty * 30) = x

x = .993729936189684

k=30, lambda=30, x=.993729936189684

RESULT = .5105800139110

OK! Now it's up to you to tell me/us what this number means  Huh

Thanks


I went trough the same drill and got the same numbers just to corroborate the effort of PostMixer!

Except on Pr(x <= 0.99) , k=30, lambda=30 calculation at http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Pr%28x+%3C%3D+0.99%29+%2C+k%3D30%2C+lambda%3D30 which says 0.839823 ...

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February 11, 2014, 11:34:14 PM
 #14815

...........

Thanks for the Formula's and explanation. I for one will try this. Probably not until the weekend, But I will get back to you with my results.

I'll be interested to see how you go. Keep us posted?

OK so here is what I got:

Round 21628 Thru 21657 = 30 Rounds

Total Shares = 78149042396

All blocks solved at Difficulty - 2,621,404,453.06

2,621,404,453.06 * 30 = 78,642,133,591.8

So Total Shares - 78149042396/78,642,133,591.8 (Difficulty * 30) = x

x = .993729936189684

k=30, lambda=30, x=.993729936189684

RESULT = .5105800139110

OK! Now it's up to you to tell me/us what this number means  Huh

Thanks


I went trough the same drill and got the same numbers just to corroborate the effort of PostMixer!

Except on Pr(x <= 0.99) , k=30, lambda=30 calculation at http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Pr%28x+%3C%3D+0.99%29+%2C+k%3D30%2C+lambda%3D30 which says 0.839823 ...




I used: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=erlang+distribution+Pr%28x+%3C%3D+1.1%29+%2C+k%3D10%2C+lambda%3D10

Replacing (x <= 1.1) with x=.993729936189684

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organofcorti
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February 11, 2014, 11:55:16 PM
 #14816


Except on Pr(x <= 0.99) , k=30, lambda=30 calculation at http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Pr%28x+%3C%3D+0.99%29+%2C+k%3D30%2C+lambda%3D30 which says 0.839823 ...



Try entering "Erlang distribution" at the front:

Erlang distribution Pr(x <= 0.99) , k=30, lambda=30


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anthem
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February 12, 2014, 12:05:24 AM
 #14817

91% 30-day luck.. That's pretty awful Sad

yeah, and it was all in the last week essentially that pulled the 30 day average down about 10 points. . .  So figure how bad its been the last week and there is your answer. .

Just this week - about 3 of the days this week I am about 1/3 of my normal average, so it has definitely been a very bad run of luck this week. .    and its like the hits keep on coming with long block after long block. .   

Here's hoping things normalize themselves, but it almost seems like the normalization will occur with the luck metric resetting itself vs us getting better luck to normalize those numbers. . .
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February 12, 2014, 12:22:06 AM
 #14818

91% 30-day luck.. That's pretty awful Sad

yeah, and it was all in the last week essentially that pulled the 30 day average down about 10 points. . .  So figure how bad its been the last week and there is your answer. .

Just this week - about 3 of the days this week I am about 1/3 of my normal average, so it has definitely been a very bad run of luck this week. .    and its like the hits keep on coming with long block after long block. .   

Here's hoping things normalize themselves, but it almost seems like the normalization will occur with the luck metric resetting itself vs us getting better luck to normalize those numbers. . .

Luck always looks worse if you average over days instead of blocks. The long rounds take longer, so "luck" looks worse than it should be.


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February 12, 2014, 12:39:18 AM
 #14819



Luck always looks worse if you average over days instead of blocks. The long rounds take longer, so "luck" looks worse than it should be.

No doubt.. .   I check once a day or so. . .   If I see 6 blocks looking for confirmations (about 36 hours worth of stuff), then its about average. . .  If you only see two or one (like right now), then that means there haven't been a lot of blocks done. . .   right now its one block, which means the current block was long enough for most of the earlier rounds to all be confirmed. . .
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February 12, 2014, 02:08:17 AM
 #14820

Hey all - I am unsure as to the normality of the following as I am new to mining, so a little advice would be helpful please...

It appears to me that every time a block is found and the stats page has the 'processing' message for the block that was just found, my hash rate dips 6 - 10 gh/s (not stuck at one interval, when I refresh the screen it varies between 6 & 10 Gh/s).

I noticed the dip on a block about 4 days ago and just passed it off as some sort of network re-adjustment. I bounced the miner client and it didn't help. I looked an hour or so later and everything was normal, so I figured I must have needed a reset. I noticed it again a couple of blocks later and tried the same thing, but watched it more closely. The hashes only came back up after the last block quit processing and showed my BTC reward. I then started to watch for a correlation. After closer notice of the last 7 blocks, every time a block is found I see the trail off in hashes and as soon as it is done processing the hash rate bounces right back. Is this an accepted pool trait or should I be looking at my mining hardware?


- Thanks -
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