[2.5+ EH] Slush Pool (slushpool.com); World's First Mining Pool

[moo.over]

Now that we had our lucky streak, doesn't it logically make sense to move over to another pool?

Don't ever go to Las Vegas.

Why not? Win some money then  walk away....... isnt that the smartest thing to do?

Really ive been watching the pool carefully, log in like ever hour at work (its addicting). I get it, in the long run it should even out......(well should)...... but i also notice that there will be one good day (kind of like today) then it will suck for 3-4 days....

Honestly, who REALLY thinks we will hit a few more >3 hour blocks in the next 24 hours???

Lets have a vote

[1524471854]

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[CheeseSammich]

Now that we had our lucky streak, doesn't it logically make sense to move over to another pool?

Don't ever go to Las Vegas.

Why not? Win some money then  walk away....... isnt that the smartest thing to do?

No, it's not.
Walking away ahead at a gambling game makes more sense because you reduce the risk of losing your winnings to 0%.
Since there's no risk mining to begin with... you're not protecting your "winnings" in any way by leaving.  You're only hurting yourself by lowering your mining reward.
You're also assuming that "somewhere else" will have more "luck" than where you are now.  There's no way to prove that will actually happen.  It's a guessing game.

In the long run... staying in one pool makes the most sense... especially this one, since Slush's pool penalizes hopping by nature.

Pick a new pool and stay with it... or simply stay here.   Hopping is just a dumb move, IMO.

[Trefdraeth]

+1, Well said.

[KNK]

In the long run... staying in one pool makes the most sense... especially this one, since Slush's pool penalizes hopping by nature.

Pick a new pool and stay with it... or simply stay here.   Hopping is just a dumb move, IMO.

+2^256
Sticking to one pool only means 100% earnings for your hardware. Anything else is gambling and if you want to gamble ... ... ... solo mine with CPU

[moo.over]

[/quote]


In the long run... staying in one pool makes the most sense... especially this one, since Slush's pool penalizes hopping by nature.


[/quote]

Im at vegas now.. I brought with me 500, as of RIGHT now i am up to 1,000. Should I walk away or keep gambling until i make 2,000?


Anyhow. I am not hopping. I have been with slush since I started mining 3 weeks ago, so my luck % is roughly 90%. I actually like the pool and how it well it pays out(when it does find a block).


But honest question to everyone here....Who thinks we will find a few more less then three hour blocks in the last 24 hours. Again, I feel like we have one REALLY good day, then 2-3 crappy ones.

Anyhow all of this is talk, I am just killing time at work.

[KNK]

Who thinks we will find a few more less then three hour blocks in the last 24 hours.

I guess you mean next 24 hours.
 
Pool luck 166%, 84%, 90%, one 10+h block and one ~6h, pool ~777Th, network ~27Ph

The pool should find ~4 blocks daily, we have 11 ... if we find the next block before 2014-02-14 17:00 we are fine ... or our next round should be less than 20h to keep 100% daily luck.
To recover our weekly luck we need to have (approximately) round 21672 out of the stats page by the end of (edit 15-th) 17-th or otherwise twice the normal rounds per day ... on average 3h rounds, so yes we should have few more 'less than 3h' rounds in the next 72h and probably at least one in the next 24h

[moo.over]

Who thinks we will find a few more less then three hour blocks in the last 24 hours.

I guess you mean next 24 hours.
 
Pool luck 166%, 84%, 90%, one 10+h block and one ~6h, pool ~777Th, network ~27Ph

The pool should find ~4 blocks daily, we have 11 ... if we find the next block before 2014-02-14 17:00 we are fine ... or our next round should be less than 20h to keep 100% daily luck.
To recover our weekly luck we need to have (approximately) round 21672 out of the stats page by the end of 15-th or otherwise twice the normal rounds per day ... on average 3h rounds, so yes we should have few more 'less than 3h' rounds in the next 72h and probably at least one in the next 24h

This i like to read, some nice rational logic. Actually makes sense. I dont think it will take 72 hours to get back to 30day luck. More like 1week.


Where do you guys think the difficulty level will be next changeup? THat is what I worried about most......

[EdB666]

Who thinks we will find a few more less then three hour blocks in the last 24 hours.

I guess you mean next 24 hours.
 
Pool luck 166%, 84%, 90%, one 10+h block and one ~6h, pool ~777Th, network ~27Ph

The pool should find ~4 blocks daily, we have 11 ... if we find the next block before 2014-02-14 17:00 we are fine ... or our next round should be less than 20h to keep 100% daily luck.
To recover our weekly luck we need to have (approximately) round 21672 out of the stats page by the end of (edit 15-th) 17-th or otherwise twice the normal rounds per day ... on average 3h rounds, so yes we should have few more 'less than 3h' rounds in the next 72h and probably at least one in the next 24h

Unless my calculations are a bit off, I thought that with neutral luck, we should expect ~7 blocks daily - the CDF hits 50% at 3 and a bit hours IIRC.

[organofcorti]

Now that we had our lucky streak, doesn't it logically make sense to move over to another pool?

Don't ever go to Las Vegas.

Why not? Win some money then  walk away....... isnt that the smartest thing to do?

No, it's not.
Walking away ahead at a gambling game makes more sense because you reduce the risk of losing your winnings to 0%.
Since there's no risk mining to begin with... you're not protecting your "winnings" in any way by leaving.  You're only hurting yourself by lowering your mining reward.
You're also assuming that "somewhere else" will have more "luck" than where you are now.  There's no way to prove that will actually happen.  It's a guessing game.

In the long run... staying in one pool makes the most sense... especially this one, since Slush's pool penalizes hopping by nature.

Pick a new pool and stay with it... or simply stay here.   Hopping is just a dumb move, IMO.

As I mentioned a couple of pages back, I've managed to get an average of 100% of expected reward by mining at Slush's pool. The scoring algorithm penalises pool hopping more than standard proportional, but there are still gains to be made if you know exactly how far into a new round you should leave.

[The Avenger]

As I mentioned a couple of pages back, I've managed to get an average of 100% of expected reward by mining at Slush's pool. The scoring algorithm penalises pool hopping more than standard proportional, but there are still gains to be made if you know exactly how far into a new round you should leave.

[PostMixer]

Check page 742. It's all there if you read carefully.

[The Avenger]

Check page 742. It's all there if you read carefully.

organofcorti suggests a figure can be calculated of what duration into a round is a good time to leave if you have not found a block. I'd assume, as it's time, it would be minutes or seconds or something like that. Page 742 says

The "RESULT" is the Erlang distribution cumulative distribution function p-value.

which, as I said, does not make any sense to me, as I'm not a stats expert.

I'm just asking because I'm curious. If it's some kind of Fight Club rule not to spell it out, then fair enough.

[organofcorti]

Y U NO EQUATIONS AND VARIABLES !

It's all in the blog post. You will have to figure out 'c' for yourself, since it changes over time. In the post I link to an R script that does it for you - you don't have to do it by hand. Look for "Navigator" in the post.

'c' changed from 300 to 200 about two years ago, but I don't know what it is now.

Edit: I think PostMixer is referring to this post on page 739.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1976.msg5053668#msg5053668

[organofcorti]

The "RESULT" is the Erlang distribution cumulative distribution function p-value.

which, as I said, does not make any sense to me, as I'm not a stats expert.

I'm just asking because I'm curious. If it's some kind of Fight Club rule not to spell it out, then fair enough.

It doesn't explain how you can mine strategically, but in case you were wondering, this post contains a bunch of quotes asking and answering the p.value and CDF questions in a different way and might be easier to understand: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=77000.msg3614424#msg3614424

[misternanyte]

I'm so sick of this. I leave slush and go to another pool, check on slush without pointing the miners back to slush, see that the block times are like 1 hour and less for the most part. Proceed to point the miners back to slush, and now we are back in the fucking 11's and 15 hours.

I'm so sick of this conspiracy bullshit.

And then 4 in a row, super quick. Damn this conspiracy 

I'm just saying it kept happening to me over and over again. I'm tired of it. Thank god... it's back to normal.

[The Avenger]

It doesn't explain how you can mine strategically, but in case you were wondering, this post contains a bunch of quotes asking and answering the p.value and CDF questions in a different way and might be easier to understand: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=77000.msg3614424#msg3614424

I appreciate the replies, but I just can't figure it out.

In the hitchhiker's guide to the galaxy, the answer to "life, the universe and everything", according to Deep Thought, was 42.

On that basis, I will assume the answer to your hop point equation is, give or take, 42 minutes.

Tell lambert_w to go home  

[PostMixer]

I just HAD to know 


The organ of Corti (or "spiral organ"), found only in mammals, is part of the cochlea of the inner ear and is provided with hair cells or auditory sensory cells. [1] It evolved from the basilar papilla found in all tetrapods, except for a few derived species that have lost it.

[Trefdraeth]

I'm so sick of this. I leave slush and go to another pool, check on slush without pointing the miners back to slush, see that the block times are like 1 hour and less for the most part. Proceed to point the miners back to slush, and now we are back in the fucking 11's and 15 hours.

I'm so sick of this conspiracy bullshit.

And then 4 in a row, super quick. Damn this conspiracy 

I'm just saying it kept happening to me over and over again. I'm tired of it. Thank god... it's back to normal.

Dude, it's always been 'normal', that's the point  .

We roll with the punches.

Forget the witchcraft and nonsense, average is average.

We are all, pretty much average.

IF there was a magic formula, it'd have regularised and published in open source years ago. Everything else is ego and nonsense.

Onwards and upwards. Before it becomes too difficult to mine for anyone other then Th/s corporates....

[organofcorti]

I'm so sick of this. I leave slush and go to another pool, check on slush without pointing the miners back to slush, see that the block times are like 1 hour and less for the most part. Proceed to point the miners back to slush, and now we are back in the fucking 11's and 15 hours.

I'm so sick of this conspiracy bullshit.

And then 4 in a row, super quick. Damn this conspiracy 

I'm just saying it kept happening to me over and over again. I'm tired of it. Thank god... it's back to normal.

You have to expect variance. Here's a few links to show you how the average/expected can vary:

Average over one round: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Erlang+distribution%2C+k+%3D+1+%2C+rate+%3D+1

Average over three rounds: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Erlang+distribution%2C+k+%3D+3+%2C+rate+%3D+3

Average over ten rounds: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Erlang+distribution%2C+k+%3D+10+%2C+rate+%3D+10

[organofcorti]

It doesn't explain how you can mine strategically, but in case you were wondering, this post contains a bunch of quotes asking and answering the p.value and CDF questions in a different way and might be easier to understand: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=77000.msg3614424#msg3614424

I appreciate the replies, but I just can't figure it out.

In the hitchhiker's guide to the galaxy, the answer to "life, the universe and everything", according to Deep Thought, was 42.

On that basis, I will assume the answer to your hop point equation is, give or take, 42 minutes.

Tell lambert_w to go home  

Argh!

OK, a worked example. Slush might hate me for doing this, but:

Code:

D = 2621404453.0646
hashrate = 769984.646
assume c=200 (although it might have changed - you'll have to find out for yourself).

Then hop point = 0.0164293+1.14254/(1.8747*2621404453.0646/(769984.646*200)+exp(1))
                     = 0.04942183


Shares mined before 0.04942183*D = 86486769 d1 shares are submitted will, on average,
be worth more than expected. Shares mined after this point will be worth less than expected.

I should reiterate the above is only valid if c is still 200. Since c influences variance to a great extent, it will be decreased when Slushes proportion of the network increases, and be increased when  Slushes proportion of the network decreases. Since the Slush's proportion has decreased significantly since it was changed to 200, c may be back to 300 by now.


Edit: That's more like 8 minutes rather than 42 minutes.