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Question: What type of pool payouts do you prefer?
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Author Topic: [40+ PH] SlushPool (slushpool.com); World's First Mining Pool  (Read 3858345 times)
organofcorti
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Poor impulse control.


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February 16, 2014, 11:00:50 PM
 #15021

even with the stats page correcting we're five + hours in and its only showing a CDF of 36.61. .   So its definitely still off. .   Usually we're at 35% of CDF less than 2 hours in. .   It's 50% at 3 or so hours. .  so the numbers here are still off. .   I imagine it'll correct itself as it looked like we were on another round while one was finished.  

I've posted this somewhere already, but maybe not in this thread.

If you want to estimate the amount of time taken for a pool to hit a particular CDF lower tail probability for a given block, you can do better than guesstimating. You can calculate it pretty simply:

Code:
estimated time in hours until lower tail CDF = P : -log(1 - P)*D*2^32/H/3600

D = network mining difficulty (currently 2621404453)
H = pool hashrate in hashes per second (eg 850 Thps = 850e12)

examples
estimated time until lower tail CDF = 0.1 : -log(1 - 0.1)*2621404453*2^32/850e12/3600 = 0.3876594 hours
estimated time until lower tail CDF = 0.5 : -log(1 - 0.5)*2621404453*2^32/850e12/3600 = 2.550339 hours
estimated time until lower tail CDF = 0.9999 : -log(1 - 0.9999)*2621404453*2^32/850e12/3600 = 33.88817 hours


HTH


edit: It occurred to me that you might want to estimate the CDF a given number of hours into the round:


Code:
P = 1 - exp(- t*H*3600/2^32/D)


P = lower tail CDF
D = network mining difficulty (currently 2621404453)
H = pool hashrate in hashes per second (eg 850 Thps = 850e12)
t = time in hours

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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anthem
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February 16, 2014, 11:15:09 PM
 #15022

sorry - sitting on a plane with gogo internet. . .  but yes, I agree with you. ..  that being said - we can both agree that the current stats page of 5+ hours and 35% CDF is not correctl
necro_nemesis
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February 17, 2014, 12:11:09 AM
 #15023

Whatever it did or is doing the unconfirmed reward which is relatively low showing in stats isn't showing carried over to the account.
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February 17, 2014, 12:21:12 AM
 #15024

Get ready 3 more blocks till difficulty adjustment. New estimated difficulty 3,129,249,303 (+19.37%)

Well here we have it folks:

Bitcoin Difficulty:   3,129,573,175
Estimated Next Difficulty:   3,704,625,859 (+18.37%)


Fresh off the presses.

So the real question is how does this effect the mind set of miners?

Since it is now very difficult to make anything even with ASIC's . When will the commercial operations of large scale begin to feel and embrace the pain.
At what level does the cost of Hardware, Electricity, Labor and their time make this an unprofitable situation. Of course the new Terra miner is profitable, if you have one.
Basically they don't have one. They have a bunch of older Butterfly labs, AntMiners, and AsicMiner Blades. Throw in some older Terra miner, and what else.

So what do they do now?

guslapins
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February 17, 2014, 12:54:38 AM
 #15025

Get ready 3 more blocks till difficulty adjustment. New estimated difficulty 3,129,249,303 (+19.37%)
_______________________________

That prompted me to put my rig for sale a few days ago. With the new difficulty it's no longer feasible to mine if you have less than 200GHS. Sad...
I actually feel disenfranchised and reluctant to use BTC ever again. I'll lose close to $1K on this whole ordeal (that's if I'll be able to sell my rig at what I'm asking for it). The whole idea of a currency not controlled by anyone is now in the hands of a few large pools/farms.
anthem
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February 17, 2014, 01:05:37 AM
 #15026

yes, and this works into the pool "luck"  . . .  because you would rather have bad luck when you're equipment is not as efficient with the difficulty than bad luck when you're able to effectively mine.  Not sure how the next jump in difficulty will be, but with this last week and the extra long blocks we've had, its definitely affected all of us in the pool. 
guslapins
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February 17, 2014, 01:11:48 AM
 #15027

BTW, if anyone is interested in 7*AntMiner U1 + USB 2.0 7 port hub and 2* BFL Jalapeno 7 GHS variety -- please PM me. I'm on a business trip, but will be able to ship on Friday. AntMiners are on sale on eBay, so quantity may vary. Willing to let it go for 1 BTC (US$600). If BTC goes down, it will be still around US$600.
The Avenger
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February 17, 2014, 01:23:14 AM
 #15028

Another block found and unreported on website  Angry https://blockchain.info/blocks/Slush

"I am not The Avenger"
1AthxGvreWbkmtTXed6EQfjXMXXdSG7dD6
anthem
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February 17, 2014, 01:27:43 AM
 #15029

Another block found and unreported on website  Angry https://blockchain.info/blocks/Slush

maybe the new website is faster at reporting incorrect information :-)


Also new stats are showing the new 3129573174 difficulty.
necro_nemesis
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February 17, 2014, 01:38:52 AM
 #15030

So what do they do now?

I suspect you either gamble on the short term price of bitcoin being low and the interest in investment in the arms race subsiding so folks can hope for ROI on their present rigs on speculation the price will rise or invest in the folks making the next gen hardware who are in a position to profit should the price of the currency rise in the near future covering development costs in their effort to make older equipment obsolete.

One could also speculate on the alts.

All answers lead to an increase in uncertainty in mining.
anthem
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February 17, 2014, 01:50:45 AM
 #15031

hmm, definitely something wrong - just noticed that block 21687 (the latest long 11 hour long) is still awaiting confirmations.  usually this means payout is in the unconfirmed total. .   In the stats page it shows my BTC award, but  my unconfirmed total is showing 0.00000  so definitely something wrong as I'm usually at the 0.0x range for every round.
gourmet
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February 17, 2014, 01:57:31 AM
 #15032

I have no Unconfirmed rewards showing up for 21687.
What just happened to that one? I looked at it a while ago and it was a 15hr marathon, then its done and we are into a 3hr+.

I thought it was just me. Huh

First, there were some complaints for a 1/100 payout here.
Then, the next round was postponed in the stats, now it is postponed in the payout.
Maybe Slush is correcting things down the chain. I mean, first he had stopped the stats queue for some time and then he allowed it to advance again when he was done correcting things, now the payout stats may be in the same situation.
PostMixer
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February 17, 2014, 02:07:49 AM
 #15033

Another block found and unreported on website  Angry https://blockchain.info/blocks/Slush

Yes. Over 2 hours ago. Block 286275. This is the worst I've seen yet. Missing block update. Hash rate way off. Unconfirmed rewards not there. REBOOT Something Slush cause we got some BIG issues.

I won't ask for donations but I will ask for help. And I won't give donations but I will help if I can.
cenicsoft
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February 17, 2014, 02:09:59 AM
 #15034

In case no one else has submitted tickets, I opened one reporting the recent issues with blocks 286275 and 21687. The first one isn't being reported that it was found by the pool. The second one isn't showing as unconfirmed reward in my account.

Lastly, the Mhash rate is showing very low even though my score is high and the estimated rewards looks correct.

These kind of issues usually get fixed before I get a response from support, but I'll post an update should I hear back before that happens.

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digdug111
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February 17, 2014, 02:19:17 AM
 #15035

I had to switch pools for now.  Too many odd things going on over the last few days.  Easy to switch back but 160 GH/s went bye bye to another pool.
gourmet
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February 17, 2014, 02:43:13 AM
 #15036

Normal block periode is 10 minutes, so 2 hours is only 12 times the difficulty.
Damn, I need to stop doing math when sleepy ... and where those 6min came from Huh
Sorry

Can't sleep so back to the PC, but don't trust my math until tomorrow.

It seems round 21687 is the missing block we found a while ago, so probably some of the admis is working on that.
The account page shows about 1/4 of my hashrate while the estimated reward is jumping ~10% around the expected one with each refresh, so it is probably catching up with the score or it is messed from the total round time change ... anyway it will be fixed sooner or later

It's possible in the  current circumstances of delayed stats that the share count for the current block is divided by the total time for both current and last block, resulting in too low hashrate display.
gourmet
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February 17, 2014, 02:46:28 AM
 #15037

Why is the minimum payout so high.  My computer mines so slowly that it will take me months to reach the threshold.
Slush has to add a small fee to every payment.  If the threshold was lower, this would become a substantial part of the pool's running expenses.  As Slush takes only a small cut for running the pool (2%) there has to be a limit, or some people would claim every tiny amount they earn, and the thing would be unsustainable.

Are you mining using only a CPU or GPU?  If so, you are probably not covering your running costs anyway unless you get free electricity.

I have a nvidia gtx 660 ti gpu.  I have switched to scrypt mining because I only get 100 M/hash on my card with bitcoins, and I don't have the funds to upgrade to an ASIAC miner.

Still I have 0.00098937 Btc in my account that I want to transfer, but I would never be able to reach the minimum payout.

You coud have earned more by doing something useful instead of posting on this topic.
necro_nemesis
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February 17, 2014, 02:56:04 AM
 #15038

Why is the minimum payout so high.  My computer mines so slowly that it will take me months to reach the threshold.
Slush has to add a small fee to every payment.  If the threshold was lower, this would become a substantial part of the pool's running expenses.  As Slush takes only a small cut for running the pool (2%) there has to be a limit, or some people would claim every tiny amount they earn, and the thing would be unsustainable.

Are you mining using only a CPU or GPU?  If so, you are probably not covering your running costs anyway unless you get free electricity.

I have a nvidia gtx 660 ti gpu.  I have switched to scrypt mining because I only get 100 M/hash on my card with bitcoins, and I don't have the funds to upgrade to an ASIAC miner.

Still I have 0.00098937 Btc in my account that I want to transfer, but I would never be able to reach the minimum payout.

You coud have earned more by doing something useful instead of posting on this topic.

Don't jump to conclusions; today on MtGox that would almost net a quarter.
J_Dubbs
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February 17, 2014, 03:18:36 AM
 #15039

This is what I've been talking about that some people don't want to consider, a problem backstage. Right now our feedback loops consist of estimated reward, hash rate, round time, and luck. I guess "CDF" might be important, but I don't know how to read it or what it means. Anyways, that's not the point. If we had knowledge of these attacks, then perhaps the 15+ hour round and awful "luck" would have proper context. Here is yet another example where a technical issue backstage is probably playing a significant role in our round length or ability to find a block. Whatever, it's Bitcoin mining, just a hobby for me; and I'm fine waiting for the technical issues to be resolved, but I wish there was a better feedback loop to tell us the technical "health" of the website, just more transparency during rather than after the event.


THIS.

"a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush"
Learn something new?: 1hzpjSkWaxm7XaEMi5P2fL6hhxuj8gxyX
Scyntech
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February 17, 2014, 03:40:43 AM
 #15040

In the last week of mining. I've made more off my 7850 mining alt-coins than I have with 5Gh/s mining here. I'm fairly new to the game, but that seems way off. I've been told Slush's pool is one of the best so I'm willing to hang on a bit longer. I have new ASIC hardware coming and would like to use it here as well.

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