Analysis

[2017orso]

Is historic high to low fib on log scale really that relevant?...I mean, let's apply that to the human population growth curve in anticipation of a potential doomsday event, seems silly.

[MAbtc]

i made something in log(logarithmic) scale so some of you can think/ponder about it and other to flame about it



info to read if you need to http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fibonacciretracement.asp


have a nice day

Awesome, haha.

[myself]

Is historic high to low fib on log scale really that relevant?...I mean, let's apply that to the human population growth curve in anticipation of a potential doomsday event, seems silly.

really ?? i mean REAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALY ??
did you just do that ??
got some questions for you ...

1) do you compare 2 different type of data, price data and human population data, just because can be represented on a chart ?

2) do you compare apples vs orange just because both grow on  tree's ?

3) do you compare human female vagina vs sheep vaginas just because are females genitals ?

4) some ppl hump sheep's now and then and we get sheeple so are you Scottish ?

[2017orso]

Is historic high to low fib on log scale really that relevant?...I mean, let's apply that to the human population growth curve in anticipation of a potential doomsday event, seems silly.

really ?? i mean REAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALY ??
did you just do that ??
got some questions for you ...

1) do you compare 2 different type of data, price data and human population data, just because can be represented on a chart ?

2) do you compare apples vs orange just because both grow on  tree's ?

3) do you compare human female vagina vs sheep vaginas just because are females genitals ?

4) some ppl hump sheep's now and then and we get sheeple so are you Scottish ?

price patterns are reflective of underlying dynamics that pressurize charting behavior of a variety of phenomena.  hyperbole of my statement was meant more to illustrate it is as nonsensical to apply fib levels to an arbitrary end point for all known data of an instrument in log form nonetheless as it would be to decide here that the human population growth curve has arbitrarily reached its peak and thus warrants fib levels to provide indication of where we go from here.  no I'm not Scottish, but you seem to be preoccupied with sheep in disturbing ways.

[oda.krell]

Hello thread.

I can't believe I haven't been following this thread (or the previous incarnation) and I can't hope to read or comprehend most of it, but in last couple days, I've tried to catch up (impossible) and I think this is some of the most valuable information on the speculation board. Hats off to all contributors, and sorry to clutter up your thread, but...


I just felt the need to share some non-technical "feelings" from someone with a less technical opinion (which I suspect are driven mostly by technicals, lol)  Anyways, a few posts I wanted to respond to:

Anyone else getting the eery feeling that luc's "long, painful slide down" prediction might become true after all?

YES! this feels eerily similar to the way it felt after the 32 bust, and the 266 (or whatever) bust. I'm hoping that this will last much longer than the 266 one though. 

Guys I see no support between now and purple line at all. And purple line support is quite questionable.

I was seeing the same thing. I thought the natural progression line should be something like this:

Obviously with a few pit stop along the way.

I very much hope this is the case, I get quite anxious when the price is too high.

No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.

Me too. When we were at 1000  On my trading account I was 80% fiat, 20% coins; then at 450 I was 20% fiat, 80% coins. Now, I've moved some extra coins back into storage to get me back closer to a 50-50 ratio and I'm looking forward to taking a "bitcoin vacation" (not a vacation paid for by bitcoin, more like just exiting the market for a while to relax a bit, this trading stuff is stressful for me)

Anyhow, thanks again to all contributors, fascinating stuff!


--------
(*DISCLOSURE*) I'm a miner, and my market position and perception is not good for anyone who does not have steady btc income. I simply place sells above and buys below.

Worst case for me are 2 scenarios:

1) Bitcoin fails. My account is cleaned out and I have 0 fiat and 100% bitcoin, but bitcoin is worthless. No big deal, I've been skimming off the top for years and I still have mining hardware that should be able to mine whatever the next coin might be. (of course if SHA-256 is broken then my ASIC's are worthless too, but my main advantage is my low overhead, but that's off-topic)

2) Bitcoin takes off and I missed the boat and I am now 0 bitcoin and 100% fiat. Oh bother. I only hold 10% of my BTC on the exchange and I can always make more. I can either just withdraw the fiat (and face potential tax consequences) or just leave the fiat there and try to catch some dips...

Don't know about the others, but I really appreciate to get a miner's feedback. Thanks for posting.

[Lady_Luck]

i made something in log(logarithmic) scale so some of you can think/ponder about it and other to flame about it




have a nice day

Hello

I can see what you are trying to say, but since you are using a log scale, sorry to be be a bit abrupt but your fib can't be linear, so the .5 should look a bit more "off center".
Otherwise, it's a nice perspective to keep in mind.
Will see where the end of c/A (may be C/2 already but doubt it) land, with low volume and the ED it looks like very likely that wave 5 would  be 1.61 of wave 1, slower and longer, so patience.
In my opinion there is too much enthusiasm to validate a supercycle yet. But a new low/potential double bottom will come soon.

[windjc]

Are we still in the Wave 5 of the downtrend or did we break out of it and start Wave 1 of a new uptrend?

[bqxpd]

i made something in log(logarithmic) scale so some of you can think/ponder about it and other to flame about it



info to read if you need to http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fibonacciretracement.asp


have a nice day

Pretty sure I see the first half of a head and shoulders forming there, even manifesting the ultra-rare Road Warrior-style spiked shoulder pads and Viking helmet meta-pattern.

[ElectricMucus]

what is this by the way? This isn't like the usual bubble I see graphed. It's double peaked and seems to be coming down in a series of bear traps.

This is what happens if people come here and use the terminology they learn in this echo chamber without knowing what it means.

[damnek]

what is this by the way? This isn't like the usual bubble I see graphed. It's double peaked and seems to be coming down in a series of bear traps.

This is what happens if people come here and use the terminology they learn in this echo chamber without knowing what it means.

I lol'ed

[invisiblehand]

What's going on right now?  I have a lot of fiat on the sidelines that I cannot decide when to put it.  I would like to buy in at or below 570 as I sold off a lot at that point hoping to average down

[notme]

What's going on right now?  I have a lot of fiat on the sidelines that I cannot decide when to put it.  I would like to buy in at or below 570 as I sold off a lot at that point hoping to average down

The market is shaking out the new buyers who don't understand bitcoin and are just looking for fiat profits.

[invisiblehand]

I understand bitcoin and I'm looking to get as many coins as I can with a given amount of fiat

[Wekkel]

I understand bitcoin and I'm looking to get as many coins as I can with a given amount of fiat

Then put in orders @ $350 and wait what happens.

[knightcoin]

The market is shaking out the new buyers who don't understand bitcoin and are just looking for fiat profits.

full mesh network ( gnax ? )

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_k_elbBz8c

[invisiblehand]

I understand bitcoin and I'm looking to get as many coins as I can with a given amount of fiat

Then put in orders @ $350 and wait what happens.

was looking for something more technical rather than glib

[shmadz]

What's going on right now?  I have a lot of fiat on the sidelines that I cannot decide when to put it.  I would like to buy in at or below 570 as I sold off a lot at that point hoping to average down

I'm not a pro trader, but to me it looks like we just broke some kind of minor resistance at 700 and I expect we should come back and test 700 as support. If we bounce off to the upside, we could see a significant move higher. If we fall back through, then it was just a failed move.

Unfortunate that you were not able to get your fiat in during the dip on Dec 18, and it's impossible to predict what will happen next, but around the 750 level seems to be significant support/resistance and if we break through that to the upside, then I think the train is back on track  

(*edit: now fighting between 730 and 710, starting to smell like bull trap

2nd edit, now seriously testing a 710 support, I'm expecting that the price will eventually go through that floor and next support =

LOOK OUT BELOW!

lol

[outofservice]

What's going on right now?  I have a lot of fiat on the sidelines that I cannot decide when to put it.  I would like to buy in at or below 570 as I sold off a lot at that point hoping to average down

I'm not a pro trader, but to me it looks like we just broke some kind of minor resistance at 700 and I expect we should come back and test 700 as support. If we bounce off to the upside, we could see a significant move higher. If we fall back through, then it was just a failed move.

Unfortunate that you were not able to get your fiat in during the dip on Dec 18, and it's impossible to predict what will happen next, but around the 750 level seems to be significant support/resistance and if we break through that to the upside, then I think the train is back on track  

(*edit: now fighting between 730 and 710, starting to smell like bull trap

2nd edit, now seriously testing a 710 support, I'm expecting that the price will eventually go through that floor and next support =

LOOK OUT BELOW!

lol

Outofservice has been waiting for this moment. He saved half his btc to sell high. OutofService is excited to buy Cheap coins!

[Voodah]

Looking very much like a trap yeah.

[shmadz]

Looking very much like a trap yeah.

yeah, but if the price touches 700 and bounces up? then what?

(I'm only looking at gox numbers just for clarity)

(edit* I should really figure out how to time stamp edits, but... there is heavy pressure just above 700 right now, heavy downward pressure, this is quite exciting,)