Test Cricket Prediction and Discussion Thread [self - mod]

[JSRAW]

^^ Would now add Williamson and kiwis too along with Koach. Kiwis are panuti/ unlucky too and chokers when playing in any finals or super overs.

Harsha got a fair point, stats indicate the same but i we need some batting collapse.

[ene1980]

^^ Would now add Williamson and kiwis too along with Koach. Kiwis are panuti/ unlucky too and chokers when playing in any finals or super overs.

Harsha got a fair point, stats indicate the same but i we need some batting collapse.

A batting collapse might create a result from a situation like this, the pitch was expected to turn in the final two days and that might be the reason India picked two spinners but they pitch was covered for two days and there wont be any assist to the spinners as expected, so it is going to be hard for India to bowl out New Zealand that easily and if there is a result then i am expecting New Zealand to win.

[Mahdirakib]

<snip>

Pitch condition will give a surprise when the field will be playable again. The pitch is covered now, only 141 over has been bowled in first 4 days. So the pitch won't behave as expectation. It may become favourable for batsman. A batting collapse won't happen easily. But the outfield might reamin slow because of so much rain. It will be tough for batsman to score quickly.

Anyway, if rain don't interrupt in the game for next two days then there is a slight chance to see a single winner of WTC final. And I will keep New Zealand ahead from this situation. Otherwise we will see a draw.

[Iranus]

West Indies have already lost 3 valuable wickets to score 102 runs. West Indies need 222 more runs to win. There are still about 69 overs left today. I wouldn't be surprised if the West Indies lost all their wickets today. The match may end in 4 days.

West Indies lost 6 wicket and they still need 215 runs to win the match and the match will end early because they are struggling to create any partnership and it is a matter of time South Africa will clean them up.

West Indies lost all their wickets for 175 runs. West Indies lost the match by 158 runs. The West Indies need more patient and experienced players for the Test format. While the West Indies are good enough in the T20 and ODI formats, they are very weak in the Test format. Even I think the Afganisthan test squad is more good than West Indies' squad.

[ene1980]

Anyway, if rain don't interrupt in the game for next two days then there is a slight chance to see a single winner of WTC final. And I will keep New Zealand ahead from this situation. Otherwise we will see a draw.

Hopefully we will not have anymore weather interruption and the weather forecast looks good but not sure about the light as the played was stopped on occasion claiming poor light and it can happen. The chances of having a winner in the first WTC finals is highly unlikely as i am expecting interruption due to bad light.

West Indies lost all their wickets for 175 runs. West Indies lost the match by 158 runs. The West Indies need more patient and experienced players for the Test format. While the West Indies are good enough in the T20 and ODI formats, they are very weak in the Test format. Even I think the Afganisthan test squad is more good than West Indies' squad.

In the shorter format they are competitive and when the bowling is tough they struggled in Test matches even though they played some good cricket against Bangladesh if i remember correctly but was not able to survive against genuine pace bowling in South Africa.

[JSRAW]

^^ Would now add Williamson and kiwis too along with Koach. Kiwis are panuti/ unlucky too and chokers when playing in any finals or super overs.

Harsha got a fair point, stats indicate the same but  we need some batting collapse.

A batting collapse might create a result from a situation like this, the pitch was expected to turn in the final two days and that might be the reason India picked two spinners but they pitch was covered for two days and there wont be any assist to the spinners as expected, so it is going to be hard for India to bowl out New Zealand that easily and if there is a result then i am expecting New Zealand to win.

In case of no further delay, we have 196 overs. 

Scenario 1 - India fails to pick quick wickets in 1st session and Kiwis play another 50 ish overs and take 30-50 ish runs lead. followed by Indian batting collapse, this could happen as we have witnessed this countless times due to pressure. NZ team clearly got edge here, if it happens.

Scenario 2 - India does manage to bowl out NZ under 200 mark. We would have enough time for the result but in that case India need to pick 18 wickets, Indian bowler need to show mighty effort +180 runs on the board from the batsmen if they want to win the game. Picking 18 wickets seems tough task as Kiwis batsmen are in okay form. Potential draw if there is no batting collapse for India.

40% Kiwis win
35% Match Draw
25% India win

[Sithara007]

40% Kiwis win
35% Match Draw
25% India win

With further rain interruption predicted, I see no chance for a win by India. Only two days of play remain and the second innings is not yet completed. Also, the New Zealand batsmen have restrained themselves from playing unwanted shots, and they have scored only 101 runs from 49 overs yet. At this rate, the second innings may not get completed in the 5th day. There is still a slight chance for a win by the Kiwis. For that, New Zealand need to put another 300 runs on board and then need to bowl out India without the requirement to bat again.

[Juggy777]

40% Kiwis win
35% Match Draw
25% India win

With further rain interruption predicted, I see no chance for a win by India. Only two days of play remain and the second innings is not yet completed. Also, the New Zealand batsmen have restrained themselves from playing unwanted shots, and they have scored only 101 runs from 49 overs yet. At this rate, the second innings may not get completed in the 5th day. There is still a slight chance for a win by the Kiwis. For that, New Zealand need to put another 300 runs on board and then need to bowl out India without the requirement to bat again.

@Sithara007 this match is heading for a draw unless team India suddenly manage to bowl New Zealand all out, but I doubt that’ll happen. Furthermore even if New Zealand player’s score big, I doubt that team India will be bowled out so easily hence I’ll repeat that this match end result will be a draw.

[Sithara007]

@Sithara007 this match is heading for a draw unless team India suddenly manage to bowl New Zealand all out, but I doubt that’ll happen. Furthermore even if New Zealand player’s score big, I doubt that team India will be bowled out so easily hence I’ll repeat that this match end result will be a draw.

Even if India manages to bowl out New Zealand, they will have a lead of only 50 runs at the most (because NZ is trailing by just 116 as of now). So even if by some miracle India manages to get the remaining 8 wickets for 60 or 70 runs, they may need another 80-90 overs to build a good total and take the lead to at least 300. That would give them around 45 overs to bowl New Zealand out in the second innings. It is not impossible, but given the strong New Zealand batting lineup, it looks highly unlikely.

[slaman29]

Things are looking good right now though in Southampton, a little bit of rain but some breeze now to counter the pitch's wetness, updates they're saying weather is looking up and play should start very soon.

Terrible way for me betting wise, but I should have listened to the warnings about the conditions and not doubled down on some bets, my fault of course.

[bryant.coleman]

Things are looking good right now though in Southampton, a little bit of rain but some breeze now to counter the pitch's wetness, updates they're saying weather is looking up and play should start very soon.

Terrible way for me betting wise, but I should have listened to the warnings about the conditions and not doubled down on some bets, my fault of course.

Two of the most experienced batsmen are at crease for New Zealand now (Ross Taylor and Kane Williamson), and they have an experience of close to 200 matches between them. But still, the loss of Devon Conway was crucial. He fell during the last over of third day's play. If he was there, then New Zealand could have been in a much better position. Now they have two relatively new batsmen at crease and they may take some time to get adjusted with the outfield and weather conditions. And this may give some advantage to the Indian pacers.

[JSRAW]

40% Kiwis win
35% Match Draw
25% India win

With further rain interruption predicted, I see no chance for a win by India. Only two days of play remain and the second innings is not yet completed. Also, the New Zealand batsmen have restrained themselves from playing unwanted shots, and they have scored only 101 runs from 49 overs yet. At this rate, the second innings may not get completed in the 5th day. There is still a slight chance for a win by the Kiwis. For that, New Zealand need to put another 300 runs on board and then need to bowl out India without the requirement to bat again.

Weather update is promising today, we might get 80 ish overs easily. Yeah they were scoring at very low rate but it could change if they don't lose quick wickets.

Let's say Kiwis are playing for the result so its very much possible if they opt for counter attack strategy and score quickly followed by early declaration, even with 160 ish runs lead. In this scenario they can't lose game anyway. So let the Indians bat again for 70-80 overs who knows if another collapse is waiting for the Indian team (I don't want this but i'm craving for the result lol). They adopted similar strategy against England in their first test match (although it was 3rd inning of the game), they could have lost that game but they did it anyway. Sadly it ended up in draw because England batsmen were not interested.

[Haunebu]

40% Kiwis win
35% Match Draw
25% India win

My prediction:

80% Draw
10% Kiwis win
10% India win

Weather forecast looks better today, but rain could still interrupt play later on based on this article.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.hindustantimes.com/cricket/india-vs-new-zealand-wtc-final-southampton-weather-today-respite-from-rain-some-play-expected-on-day-5-101624336073430-amp.html

Both teams will probably avoid unnecessary risks due to which a draw seems inevitable at this stage. 3 or 5 match series could have circumvented this problem.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Play resumed a few minutes back... but today's weather is not looking great and in all probability the match will end up as another boring draw. Both the New Zealand batsmen (Ross Taylor and Kane Williamson) are playing defensively right now. There is no chance that India will bat again today. That said, the Indian seamers are looking in good shape (especially Ishant). But India is in backfoot right now and they need to get at least a couple of wickets in the first session to stay alive in this match.

[Swordsoffreedom]

What a great come-back by Indian bowlers. It's Amazing. Before the start of today's game, England lost only 2 wickets for 101 runs. At the moment they have collected 135 runs, and they have lost 5 wickets. Ishant Sharma and Shami are doing great ball today. India's bowlers are doing great, they needed that performance to draw the match. My prediction is, this match will be a draw.

[JSRAW]

^^ I'm still hoping for result lol. We only need 2 batting collapse and voila! Batting not looking easy here, fingers crossed for Indian batsmen if they get the chance to bat in the next session 

NZ scored only 34 runs in 23 overs so all credit to Shami-Ishant duo, hope Bumrah joins the party soon. Indians should also think about over rates tho, they are bowling slow today.

~~~

My prediction:
~sbip~
Both teams will probably avoid unnecessary risks due to which a draw seems inevitable at this stage. 3 or 5 match series could have circumvented this problem.

Only if Players schedule is free for 1 good month.

@vishnu Rain and bad light interruptions are ruining the moment but so far we have seen quality of cricket from the both sides, they are fighting hard.

[bryant.coleman]

What a great come-back by Indian bowlers. It's Amazing. Before the start of today's game, England lost only 2 wickets for 101 runs. At the moment they have collected 135 runs, and they have lost 5 wickets. Ishant Sharma and Shami are doing great ball today. India's bowlers are doing great, they needed that performance to draw the match. My prediction is, this match will be a draw.

Yes.. the Indian pacers made use of the damp and overcast conditions. And this is the advantage in having experienced seamers like Shami and Ishant in the squad. These two have 151 test matches between them. On the other hand, the least experienced pacer (Jasprit Bumrah) was quite wayward and conceded a lot of runs. He really struggled to adjust to the conditions. And India's refusal to play warm-up matches didn't helped. Now the question is whether Ishant and Shami are enough to take the remaining five wickets quickly. If Bumrah and Ashwin needs to be brought in, it may give some breathing space to the Kiwis.

[onecall123]

What a great come-back by Indian bowlers. It's Amazing. Before the start of today's game, England lost only 2 wickets for 101 runs. At the moment they have collected 135 runs, and they have lost 5 wickets. Ishant Sharma and Shami are doing great ball today. India's bowlers are doing great, they needed that performance to draw the match. My prediction is, this match will be a draw.

You should replace England, with New Zealand dude. England host the match ICC World Test Championship Final 2021.
New Zealand trail by 82 runs, Ishant Sharma and Mohammed Shami are doing great bowling duo right now. Outstanding bowling spell from Shami for Indian team, he might pick Kane Williamson wickets to get back into the game. It's happiness to watch his bowling, particularly those fiery spell from Shami. Let's just enjoy the contest.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Will be interesting to see whether India will be able to take the lead. Right now New Zealand trail by 52 runs, with 4 wickets remaining. Kane Williamson is still there, but the tail has started with Kyle Jamieson. Colin de Grandhomme was looking good, but just now he got out to Mohammed Shami. Ishant/Shami need to clean up the tail before there is a need to bring in Bumrah or Ashwin (or even Jadeja). I hope those who argued in favor of replacing Ishant with Siraj are silent now. Ishant has proved that he is the best, once again.

[onecall123]

Will be interesting to see whether India will be able to take the lead. Right now New Zealand trail by 52 runs, with 4 wickets remaining. Kane Williamson is still there, but the tail has started with Kyle Jamieson. Colin de Grandhomme was looking good, but just now he got out to Mohammed Shami. Ishant/Shami need to clean up the tail before there is a need to bring in Bumrah or Ashwin (or even Jadeja). I hope those who argued in favor of replacing Ishant with Siraj are silent now. Ishant has proved that he is the best, once again.

NZ 249 and all out. New Zealand lead by 32 runs, however this 32 runs might be play vital role for Indian scoreboard. Excellent comeback by India bowlers. Ishant take the most prominent wickets Williamson thus he missed his fifty. May be a draw is possible but India can't win this match in any way. May be a chance available for New Zealand too.