Test Cricket Prediction and Discussion Thread [self - mod]

[bryant.coleman]

West Indies have already lost 3 valuable wickets to score 102 runs. West Indies need 222 more runs to win. There are still about 69 overs left today. I wouldn't be surprised if the West Indies lost all their wickets today. The match may end in 4 days.

There is no chance that West Indies is going to make a total of 300 plus in their second innings, against a bowling attack that is comprised of Anrich Nortje, Wiaan Mulder, Lungi Ngidi, Kagiso Rabada and Keshav Maharaj. They managed just 149 in the first innings (and that too thanks to decent scores from Jermaine Blackwood and Shai Hope). Anyway, now they are struggling at 107/6 and Keshav Maharaj has got his first test hattrick. West Indies trail by 216 runs, while the South Africans need just 4 wickets to win.

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[onecall123]

Rain is expected today as per the weather reports and yes it is frustrating to see the WTC final affected by weather and even with an extra day it looks like we might not see a result until we see another collapse from India in their second innings like they lost in Australia and usually they get defeated in their first match in their past few series and usually comes back and win the series.

According to the weather prediction, no play is possible until tomorrow second half. So unless some miracle occurs, this match is going to end in a draw and both the teams would be declared as combined winners. Time has come for the ICC to think about a stadium with retractable roof. I know that it is going to cost them a lot of money, but in the long run they may be able to get good returns. With climate change getting more severe, we can expect more rain interruptions in the future as well. Even the addition of the reserve day hasn't helped here.

The forecast of the upcoming days doesn't look very promising. Our concern, why ICC hold such occasions in where climate doesn't allow entire day's play? There hype was created for the finale but now we're heading to draw seems to be the only possible outcome. Weather is not in anybody's hand but there should be pre-planned and much awareness. At the end it'll be so miserable with no game and the title be shared.

[7788bitcoin]

West Indies have already lost 3 valuable wickets to score 102 runs. West Indies need 222 more runs to win. There are still about 69 overs left today. I wouldn't be surprised if the West Indies lost all their wickets today. The match may end in 4 days.

West Indies lost 6 wicket and they still need 215 runs to win the match and the match will end early because they are struggling to create any partnership and it is a matter of time South Africa will clean them up.

The forecast of the upcoming days doesn't look very promising. Our concern, why ICC hold such occasions in where climate doesn't allow entire day's play? There hype was created for the finale but now we're heading to draw seems to be the only possible outcome. Weather is not in anybody's hand but there should be pre-planned and much awareness. At the end it'll be so miserable with no game and the title be shared.

They knew there will be weather interruptions and so is the reason they had a reserve day and there was rain interruption when England and New Zealand played but they were able to play and an extra day could have given the results but this week we had more rain than expected and with two more days left there is no way we will have a result in this match.

[ubercool]

First of all, they made so much hype about this match, if they had at least half of the effort in climate prediction then it would have been a better thing. It's for sure now that there will not be a concrete result and I don't know any way of making a decision on the result here. We had waited for more than a year now for the world champion. All my bets were on India but it looks like that's out of picture now.

[Vaskiy]

First of all, they made so much hype about this match, if they had at least half of the effort in climate prediction then it would have been a better thing. It's for sure now that there will not be a concrete result and I don't know any way of making a decision on the result here. We had waited for more than a year now for the world champion. All my bets were on India but it looks like that's out of picture now.

There is very less chance for the match to get result. If the match gets ended without a result how will be the winner chosen. Possibly this will go on the side of India, because they're lucky in such occasions. Similar incident had taken place previously for New Zealand in its world cup finals where it missed the trophy by the mistake of referee.

[Haunebu]

First of all, they made so much hype about this match, if they had at least half of the effort in climate prediction then it would have been a better thing. It's for sure now that there will not be a concrete result and I don't know any way of making a decision on the result here. We had waited for more than a year now for the world champion. All my bets were on India but it looks like that's out of picture now.

I mentioned earlier that they should have conducted a 3 or 5 test match series to try and avoid these issues. 1 test match is not enough to effectively decide the winner of such a long tournament in my opinion.

It looks like India and NZ will end up sharing the title. For some reason, Kohli isn't able to get the job done in big tournaments as @JSRAW pointed out several times earlier.

[JSRAW]

^^ Would now add Williamson and kiwis too along with Koach. Kiwis are panuti/ unlucky too and chokers when playing in any finals or super overs.

Harsha got a fair point, stats indicate the same but i we need some batting collapse.

[ene1980]

^^ Would now add Williamson and kiwis too along with Koach. Kiwis are panuti/ unlucky too and chokers when playing in any finals or super overs.

Harsha got a fair point, stats indicate the same but i we need some batting collapse.

A batting collapse might create a result from a situation like this, the pitch was expected to turn in the final two days and that might be the reason India picked two spinners but they pitch was covered for two days and there wont be any assist to the spinners as expected, so it is going to be hard for India to bowl out New Zealand that easily and if there is a result then i am expecting New Zealand to win.

[Mahdirakib]

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Pitch condition will give a surprise when the field will be playable again. The pitch is covered now, only 141 over has been bowled in first 4 days. So the pitch won't behave as expectation. It may become favourable for batsman. A batting collapse won't happen easily. But the outfield might reamin slow because of so much rain. It will be tough for batsman to score quickly.

Anyway, if rain don't interrupt in the game for next two days then there is a slight chance to see a single winner of WTC final. And I will keep New Zealand ahead from this situation. Otherwise we will see a draw.

[Iranus]

West Indies have already lost 3 valuable wickets to score 102 runs. West Indies need 222 more runs to win. There are still about 69 overs left today. I wouldn't be surprised if the West Indies lost all their wickets today. The match may end in 4 days.

West Indies lost 6 wicket and they still need 215 runs to win the match and the match will end early because they are struggling to create any partnership and it is a matter of time South Africa will clean them up.

West Indies lost all their wickets for 175 runs. West Indies lost the match by 158 runs. The West Indies need more patient and experienced players for the Test format. While the West Indies are good enough in the T20 and ODI formats, they are very weak in the Test format. Even I think the Afganisthan test squad is more good than West Indies' squad.

[ene1980]

Anyway, if rain don't interrupt in the game for next two days then there is a slight chance to see a single winner of WTC final. And I will keep New Zealand ahead from this situation. Otherwise we will see a draw.

Hopefully we will not have anymore weather interruption and the weather forecast looks good but not sure about the light as the played was stopped on occasion claiming poor light and it can happen. The chances of having a winner in the first WTC finals is highly unlikely as i am expecting interruption due to bad light.

West Indies lost all their wickets for 175 runs. West Indies lost the match by 158 runs. The West Indies need more patient and experienced players for the Test format. While the West Indies are good enough in the T20 and ODI formats, they are very weak in the Test format. Even I think the Afganisthan test squad is more good than West Indies' squad.

In the shorter format they are competitive and when the bowling is tough they struggled in Test matches even though they played some good cricket against Bangladesh if i remember correctly but was not able to survive against genuine pace bowling in South Africa.

[JSRAW]

^^ Would now add Williamson and kiwis too along with Koach. Kiwis are panuti/ unlucky too and chokers when playing in any finals or super overs.

Harsha got a fair point, stats indicate the same but  we need some batting collapse.

A batting collapse might create a result from a situation like this, the pitch was expected to turn in the final two days and that might be the reason India picked two spinners but they pitch was covered for two days and there wont be any assist to the spinners as expected, so it is going to be hard for India to bowl out New Zealand that easily and if there is a result then i am expecting New Zealand to win.

In case of no further delay, we have 196 overs. 

Scenario 1 - India fails to pick quick wickets in 1st session and Kiwis play another 50 ish overs and take 30-50 ish runs lead. followed by Indian batting collapse, this could happen as we have witnessed this countless times due to pressure. NZ team clearly got edge here, if it happens.

Scenario 2 - India does manage to bowl out NZ under 200 mark. We would have enough time for the result but in that case India need to pick 18 wickets, Indian bowler need to show mighty effort +180 runs on the board from the batsmen if they want to win the game. Picking 18 wickets seems tough task as Kiwis batsmen are in okay form. Potential draw if there is no batting collapse for India.

40% Kiwis win
35% Match Draw
25% India win

[Sithara007]

40% Kiwis win
35% Match Draw
25% India win

With further rain interruption predicted, I see no chance for a win by India. Only two days of play remain and the second innings is not yet completed. Also, the New Zealand batsmen have restrained themselves from playing unwanted shots, and they have scored only 101 runs from 49 overs yet. At this rate, the second innings may not get completed in the 5th day. There is still a slight chance for a win by the Kiwis. For that, New Zealand need to put another 300 runs on board and then need to bowl out India without the requirement to bat again.

[Juggy777]

40% Kiwis win
35% Match Draw
25% India win

With further rain interruption predicted, I see no chance for a win by India. Only two days of play remain and the second innings is not yet completed. Also, the New Zealand batsmen have restrained themselves from playing unwanted shots, and they have scored only 101 runs from 49 overs yet. At this rate, the second innings may not get completed in the 5th day. There is still a slight chance for a win by the Kiwis. For that, New Zealand need to put another 300 runs on board and then need to bowl out India without the requirement to bat again.

@Sithara007 this match is heading for a draw unless team India suddenly manage to bowl New Zealand all out, but I doubt that’ll happen. Furthermore even if New Zealand player’s score big, I doubt that team India will be bowled out so easily hence I’ll repeat that this match end result will be a draw.

[Sithara007]

@Sithara007 this match is heading for a draw unless team India suddenly manage to bowl New Zealand all out, but I doubt that’ll happen. Furthermore even if New Zealand player’s score big, I doubt that team India will be bowled out so easily hence I’ll repeat that this match end result will be a draw.

Even if India manages to bowl out New Zealand, they will have a lead of only 50 runs at the most (because NZ is trailing by just 116 as of now). So even if by some miracle India manages to get the remaining 8 wickets for 60 or 70 runs, they may need another 80-90 overs to build a good total and take the lead to at least 300. That would give them around 45 overs to bowl New Zealand out in the second innings. It is not impossible, but given the strong New Zealand batting lineup, it looks highly unlikely.

[slaman29]

Things are looking good right now though in Southampton, a little bit of rain but some breeze now to counter the pitch's wetness, updates they're saying weather is looking up and play should start very soon.

Terrible way for me betting wise, but I should have listened to the warnings about the conditions and not doubled down on some bets, my fault of course.

[bryant.coleman]

Things are looking good right now though in Southampton, a little bit of rain but some breeze now to counter the pitch's wetness, updates they're saying weather is looking up and play should start very soon.

Terrible way for me betting wise, but I should have listened to the warnings about the conditions and not doubled down on some bets, my fault of course.

Two of the most experienced batsmen are at crease for New Zealand now (Ross Taylor and Kane Williamson), and they have an experience of close to 200 matches between them. But still, the loss of Devon Conway was crucial. He fell during the last over of third day's play. If he was there, then New Zealand could have been in a much better position. Now they have two relatively new batsmen at crease and they may take some time to get adjusted with the outfield and weather conditions. And this may give some advantage to the Indian pacers.

[JSRAW]

40% Kiwis win
35% Match Draw
25% India win

With further rain interruption predicted, I see no chance for a win by India. Only two days of play remain and the second innings is not yet completed. Also, the New Zealand batsmen have restrained themselves from playing unwanted shots, and they have scored only 101 runs from 49 overs yet. At this rate, the second innings may not get completed in the 5th day. There is still a slight chance for a win by the Kiwis. For that, New Zealand need to put another 300 runs on board and then need to bowl out India without the requirement to bat again.

Weather update is promising today, we might get 80 ish overs easily. Yeah they were scoring at very low rate but it could change if they don't lose quick wickets.

Let's say Kiwis are playing for the result so its very much possible if they opt for counter attack strategy and score quickly followed by early declaration, even with 160 ish runs lead. In this scenario they can't lose game anyway. So let the Indians bat again for 70-80 overs who knows if another collapse is waiting for the Indian team (I don't want this but i'm craving for the result lol). They adopted similar strategy against England in their first test match (although it was 3rd inning of the game), they could have lost that game but they did it anyway. Sadly it ended up in draw because England batsmen were not interested.

[Haunebu]

40% Kiwis win
35% Match Draw
25% India win

My prediction:

80% Draw
10% Kiwis win
10% India win

Weather forecast looks better today, but rain could still interrupt play later on based on this article.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.hindustantimes.com/cricket/india-vs-new-zealand-wtc-final-southampton-weather-today-respite-from-rain-some-play-expected-on-day-5-101624336073430-amp.html

Both teams will probably avoid unnecessary risks due to which a draw seems inevitable at this stage. 3 or 5 match series could have circumvented this problem.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Play resumed a few minutes back... but today's weather is not looking great and in all probability the match will end up as another boring draw. Both the New Zealand batsmen (Ross Taylor and Kane Williamson) are playing defensively right now. There is no chance that India will bat again today. That said, the Indian seamers are looking in good shape (especially Ishant). But India is in backfoot right now and they need to get at least a couple of wickets in the first session to stay alive in this match.