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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1995041 times)
NewLiberty
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December 12, 2014, 07:05:07 PM
 #18661

yours is certainly the predominant view and logical at a certain level.

i only pt out however that 2008 never allowed markets to "clear".  the debt buildup since has only multiplied thru unsustainable policies.  we could be entering the blow off phase of a multi-decade inflation with QE being the culmination of those policies.  i do find myself conflicted on what's happening as, in general, i'm an optimist as to what tech and Bitcoin will bring to society but i am also a believer in cycles.  it's time for another down cycle to clear mkts.  gold's multi year drop may be leading the next deflationary phase.

just be cautious.

I'm with you there.  The macro view is pretty borked in ways that make unborking unlikely without an entirely new paradigm.
The deflation is only a piece of that mess, and is being managed to make the massive QE inflation game take longer to play out on the hopes that something weird happens and it doesn't turn calamitous like usual.

Optimism?
Maybe this time is different.  Maybe alien time travelers will visit us and show us the new plan.  Maybe we find an efficient, portable, and safe energy storage device.  Maybe we will all live forever.  Lots of good things can happen, and I don't really want to talk about the bad things because they are just what usually happens historically when the string plays out on this game and we reach the end of the spool.

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December 12, 2014, 07:23:42 PM
 #18662

A couple years behind the discussion here, but still good to see coming out of Princeton:

"Why ASICs may be good for Bitcoin" - https://freedom-to-tinker.com/blog/jbonneau/why-asics-may-be-good-for-bitcoin/

Quote
...
I would like to expand on the argument  here though by positing that ASICs may actually make Bitcoin (and similar cryptocurrencies) more stable by ensuring that miners have a large sunk cost and depend on future mining revenues to recoup it. Even if it were technically possible to design a perfectly ASIC-resistant mining puzzle which ensured that mining was efficient on general-purpose computers, this might be a bad idea if it meant you could obtain a lot of computational capacity and use it in a destructive attack on Bitcoin without significantly devaluing your computational resources’ value.
...


Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
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rocks
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December 12, 2014, 07:49:31 PM
 #18663

yours is certainly the predominant view and logical at a certain level.

i only pt out however that 2008 never allowed markets to "clear".  the debt buildup since has only multiplied thru unsustainable policies.  we could be entering the blow off phase of a multi-decade inflation with QE being the culmination of those policies.  i do find myself conflicted on what's happening as, in general, i'm an optimist as to what tech and Bitcoin will bring to society but i am also a believer in cycles.  it's time for another down cycle to clear mkts.  gold's multi year drop may be leading the next deflationary phase.

just be cautious.

I'm with you there.  The macro view is pretty borked in ways that make unborking unlikely without an entirely new paradigm.
The deflation is only a piece of that mess, and is being managed to make the massive QE inflation game take longer to play out on the hopes that something weird happens and it doesn't turn calamitous like usual.

Optimism?
Maybe this time is different.  Maybe alien time travelers will visit us and show us the new plan.  Maybe we find an efficient, portable, and safe energy storage device.  Maybe we will all live forever.  Lots of good things can happen, and I don't really want to talk about the bad things because they are just what usually happens historically when the string plays out on this game and we reach the end of the spool.

Maybe this time someone motivated who sees what is going on will create an exit from the current financial regime that anyone in the world can join.
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December 12, 2014, 07:52:52 PM
 #18664

yours is certainly the predominant view and logical at a certain level.

i only pt out however that 2008 never allowed markets to "clear".  the debt buildup since has only multiplied thru unsustainable policies.  we could be entering the blow off phase of a multi-decade inflation with QE being the culmination of those policies.  i do find myself conflicted on what's happening as, in general, i'm an optimist as to what tech and Bitcoin will bring to society but i am also a believer in cycles.  it's time for another down cycle to clear mkts.  gold's multi year drop may be leading the next deflationary phase.

just be cautious.

I'm with you there.  The macro view is pretty borked in ways that make unborking unlikely without an entirely new paradigm.
The deflation is only a piece of that mess, and is being managed to make the massive QE inflation game take longer to play out on the hopes that something weird happens and it doesn't turn calamitous like usual.

Optimism?
Maybe this time is different.  Maybe alien time travelers will visit us and show us the new plan.  Maybe we find an efficient, portable, and safe energy storage device.  Maybe we will all live forever.  Lots of good things can happen, and I don't really want to talk about the bad things because they are just what usually happens historically when the string plays out on this game and we reach the end of the spool.

Maybe this time someone motivated who sees what is going on will create an exit from the current financial regime that anyone in the world can join.

This is why I think Bitcoin will actually thrive in the next downturn unlike what guys like Jim Rickards is predicting.

The timing is suspiciously right as well after a year of bitcoin stagnation in the price.
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December 12, 2014, 08:40:38 PM
 #18665

Dow diving now.  feels like deflation.

problem being debt implosions with Greek and now energy junk bonds.  that would be the next subprime.
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December 12, 2014, 09:02:34 PM
 #18666

ZH is now my no.1 news site, even more informative than the Google news aggregator.

Paying Down The Debt Is Now Almost Mathematically Impossible
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-12/paying-down-debt-now-almost-mathematically-impossible

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December 12, 2014, 09:14:40 PM
 #18667

Dow diving now.  feels like deflation.


There will also be "up" days again. As if the thing cannot stay down any more.

                                 
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December 12, 2014, 09:59:02 PM
 #18668

It's not like 2% is the end of the world, even if in that stock may be an interesting number. As I already said in my opinion we reached the top of this bull cycle and we are about to see a downfall of the major us stocks. Gold seems to have confirmed its historical support from a point of view, but I'm not convinced at all that it will reverse the trend anytime soon.

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December 12, 2014, 10:10:10 PM
 #18669

Dow diving now.  feels like deflation.


There will also be "up" days again. As if the thing cannot stay down any more.

To rocks point earlier I'm in total agreement, QE is just locking in past inflation.

Deflation should refer to the money supply but is largely measured in consumer prices.

When I here deflation I have a hard time relating it to falling stock prices and other investment assets, although consumer prices and investment assets may be correlated.

Where I see the deflation happening I see it in consumer value judgments. Here is a distressing story my wife told me.

The dentist visits schools in Canada part of oral hygiene education, while my wife was talking the dentist expressed concern, that many children aren't getting the calcium they need in there diet. Many kids don't eat cheese anymore, why, the feedback to the dentist is my mom says it's too expensive.

That's feedback I'd expect from  people living in poverty not middle class kids. The thing debt purchase like a car a house (even a cellphone believe it or not) are being serviced (creating monetary inflation) while at the same time many of the same people are foregoing basis like nutrition causing consumer deflation.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
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December 13, 2014, 12:06:23 AM
 #18670

if Adam says BUY due to GOLD, who are you to deny?
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December 13, 2014, 12:09:32 AM
 #18671

Who here thinks the Bitcoin to Dow ratio will flip someday?

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December 13, 2014, 12:23:48 AM
 #18672

Who here thinks the Bitcoin to Dow ratio will flip someday?

me.

we are at opposite ends of the cycles btwn the two, imo.
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December 13, 2014, 12:25:27 AM
 #18673

just as a reminder:

[–]Capt_Roger_Murdock 5 points 4 days ago

Here's how I usually explain what Bitcoin is and why it matters:

The reason it's so hard for most people to understand Bitcoin is that most people don't really understand money. Money isn't wealth. It's an accounting system used to facilitate the exchange of wealth. (The paradox of money is that while everyone wants it, no one actually wants it - they want the stuff they can buy with it!) Many people are put off by the fact that bitcoins are "just zeroes and ones." But that's what ALL money is, information! More precisely, money is a means for credibly conveying information about value given but not yet received (or at least not yet received in a form in which it can directly satisfy a person's wants or needs).

To put it yet another way, money is a ledger. With fiat currencies like the dollar, that ledger is centralized. And that gives the central authority responsible for maintaining that ledger tremendous power, power that history has proven will inevitably be abused. With Bitcoin, the ledger is decentralized. And that means that no one individual or entity has the power to arbitrarily create new units (thereby causing inflation), freeze (or seize) your account, or block a particular payment from being processed. We've had decentralized money before. After all, no one can simply print new gold into existence. And the "ledger" of gold is distributed because the physical gold itself (the "accounting entries" in the metaphor) is distributed. But with gold, that decentralization comes at a heavy price (literally). The physical nature of gold makes it hugely inefficient from a transactional perspective.

Enter Bitcoin.

It is the first currency in the world that is BOTH decentralized AND digital. It is more reliably scarce than gold, more transactionally efficient than "modern" digital banking, and enables greater financial privacy than cash. It could certainly still fail for one reason or another, but if it doesn't, it has the potential to be very, VERY disruptive.
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December 13, 2014, 12:57:40 AM
 #18674

I was on the fence about buying a new Xbox.

This settles it.  Merry Christmas!

I didn't have a console, ever. I quit playing computer games at some point.

I think I might get a TV or projector and a steam box.

When is steam going to accept Bitcoin? Now that would imply a rocket.

(I know one can buy steam games with bitcoin through 3rd parties, that's not what I mean).


I quit years ago as well. But I still have one teenager left at home. But who knows? Maybe I'll start again just because of Microsoft. Just to support the cause. A part of me wonders just how much the tech has come along.

Your teenagers will use you as a punching bag.
I used to think I was good at a few games until I had a son.
It will be humbling, but you will have new things to talk about with them.

Cypher one suggestion if you get the XBONE get Forza 5 racing sim. with force-feedback wheel and pedals.  My teenage son and daughter both use me as a punching bag with all games but this one.  I can get cocky and say "who's your daddy" with wheels and pedals but not those thumb sticks.  A low latency tv is a must.

Now I need to go spend some virtual cash for some virtual car upgrades.

Merry Christmas
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December 13, 2014, 01:02:41 AM
 #18675

Dow diving now.  feels like deflation.


There will also be "up" days again. As if the thing cannot stay down any more.

To rocks point earlier I'm in total agreement, QE is just locking in past inflation.

Deflation should refer to the money supply but is largely measured in consumer prices.

When I here deflation I have a hard time relating it to falling stock prices and other investment assets, although consumer prices and investment assets may be correlated.

Where I see the deflation happening I see it in consumer value judgments. Here is a distressing story my wife told me.

The dentist visits schools in Canada part of oral hygiene education, while my wife was talking the dentist expected concern, that many children aren't getting the calcium they need in there diet. Many kids don't eat cheese anymore, why, the feedback to the dentist is my mom says it's too expensive.

That's feedback I'd expect from  people living in poverty not middle class kids. The thing debt purchase like a car a house (even a cellphone believe it or not) are being serviced (creating monetary inflation) while at the same time many of the same people are foregoing basis like nutrition causing consumer deflation.

That is a sad anecdote Adrian, but one that I think points to just how horrific the current debt-money system is. Hyper-financialization of basic goods required to live has resulted in massive debt payments that must be paid before anything else, including food.

When central banks enable free debt and leverage, it raises the price of everything people need to live, right up to the level where the public can just barely afford interest payments.

Take housing for example, without mortgages housing would be much cheaper and affordable. However with all the free leverage (30-45 year mortgages, ARMs, interest-only terms, 3% down, etc), the price of housing rises due to people bidding with leverage until no one can afford any higher interest payments. Same is true with education, health care, etc., these are all examples of necessary goods bid up due to hyper-financialization of the economy.

What is evil about this is it creates a form of debt-based serfdom for everyone. Where before your average person could save and buy a house outright in mid-life, today people can "buy" a house earlier in life, but then are locked into large debt payments that extract a significant portion of ones lifetime income potential. And there is no way to opt-out of this system, even if you choose to rent and not buy, rent prices go up with housing.

Debt serfdom is exactly what it is. We are all required to pay a significant portion of our life's labor to banks to support debt payments for basic goods that would never be priced so high without the free leverage offered.
 
So here we are today, where families skip basic food for children because they have to make the mortgage payment, school payment, healthcare payment, etc. It is scarily similar to the feudal system where people had to pay a portion of their labor to work the land to the people who inherited that land, now we have a system where people have to pay a portion of their labor to financial institutions to people who inherited financial wealth. The mechanism has changed, but the result has not.

Sorry if this is too negative or OT, comes from reading ZH for many years.
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December 13, 2014, 01:12:42 AM
 #18676

I was on the fence about buying a new Xbox.

This settles it.  Merry Christmas!

I didn't have a console, ever. I quit playing computer games at some point.

I think I might get a TV or projector and a steam box.

When is steam going to accept Bitcoin? Now that would imply a rocket.

(I know one can buy steam games with bitcoin through 3rd parties, that's not what I mean).


I quit years ago as well. But I still have one teenager left at home. But who knows? Maybe I'll start again just because of Microsoft. Just to support the cause. A part of me wonders just how much the tech has come along.

Your teenagers will use you as a punching bag.
I used to think I was good at a few games until I had a son.
It will be humbling, but you will have new things to talk about with them.

Cypher one suggestion if you get the XBONE get Forza 5 racing sim. with force-feedback wheel and pedals.  My teenage son and daughter both use me as a punching bag with all games but this one.  I can get cocky and say "who's your daddy" with wheels and pedals but not those thumb sticks.  A low latency tv is a must.

Merry Christmas

lol, this is great!

is XBoxOne, the one i should be looking at?  there are all sorts of bundles.  is there one for Forza?

i've been thinking about the differences in eye hand coordination btwn adults and kids all day.  for instance, while my kids can pown me all day with video games which require fine motor skills of just the fingers, they still can't beat me with more gross, larger muscle activities like ping pong, fooz ball, pool, or shooting baskets.  which tells me their neural linkages leading from their retinas to optic nerves to crossing at the optic chiasm to the synapse at their geniculate nuclei and then to their occipital cortex to the motor centers of the brain and then on down to their fingers are highly developed at a young age.  it's just the large muscle groups for old guys like me that aren't fully there yet and why i have a chance!

Forza sounds good!
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December 13, 2014, 01:36:40 AM
 #18677

When central banks enable free debt and leverage, it raises the price of everything people need to live, right up to the level where the public can just barely afford interest payments.

Take housing for example, without mortgages housing would be much cheaper and affordable. However with all the free leverage (30-45 year mortgages, ARMs, interest-only terms, 3% down, etc), the price of housing rises due to people bidding with leverage until no one can afford any higher interest payments. Same is true with education, health care, etc., these are all examples of necessary goods bid up due to hyper-financialization of the economy.

What is evil about this is it creates a form of debt-based serfdom for everyone. Where before your average person could save and buy a house outright in mid-life, today people can "buy" a house earlier in life, but then are locked into large debt payments that extract a significant portion of ones lifetime income potential. And there is no way to opt-out of this system, even if you choose to rent and not buy, rent prices go up with housing.

Debt serfdom is exactly what it is. We are all required to pay a significant portion of our life's labor to banks to support debt payments for basic goods that would never be priced so high without the free leverage offered.
 
So here we are today, where families skip basic food for children because they have to make the mortgage payment, school payment, healthcare payment, etc. It is scarily similar to the feudal system where people had to pay a portion of their labor to work the land to the people who inherited that land, now we have a system where people have to pay a portion of their labor to financial institutions to people who inherited financial wealth. The mechanism has changed, but the result has not.

Sorry if this is too negative or OT, comes from reading ZH for many years.

this is great once again, rocks. 

you are young enough to have the energy to post like i used to here back in 2011 at the beginning of the Gold: I Smell a Trap thread.  thanks for this.  everybody should pay attention.

yes, the key thing is that young ppl, even secretaries and plumbers, get into the speculation game by leveraging up to buy all sorts of expensive assets like stocks, houses, condos, or commercial RE they have no business getting into b/c of lack of income.

and we know this is a real problem b/c average incomes for middle and even upper class non financial Americans has stagnated for years now. the only ones whose incomes have skyrocketed are the well connected in the financial industry.  i've never seen such hypocrisy and levels of effort by our conflicted politicians to bailout a particular industry.  and this just exacerbates the problem b/c those same ppl know that it has to be pedal to the metal while the going is good.  if you've ever visited Wall St or known ppl in the industry, there is a sense of urgency to make hay while they can as they know it won't last forever.

the key thing here is that, as you say, the banks will never let you off the debt you owe to them.  there's 2 sets of rules; one for their own debt forgiveness aka bailouts and the other for pleebs like you.  we are fast approaching the point where the debt can't be financed any longer.  here's another chart that shows something has changed:

http://www.macrotrends.net/1381/debt-to-gdp-ratio-historical-chart 
xcrabber
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December 13, 2014, 01:43:31 AM
 #18678

I was on the fence about buying a new Xbox.

This settles it.  Merry Christmas!

I didn't have a console, ever. I quit playing computer games at some point.

I think I might get a TV or projector and a steam box.

When is steam going to accept Bitcoin? Now that would imply a rocket.

(I know one can buy steam games with bitcoin through 3rd parties, that's not what I mean).


I quit years ago as well. But I still have one teenager left at home. But who knows? Maybe I'll start again just because of Microsoft. Just to support the cause. A part of me wonders just how much the tech has come along.

Your teenagers will use you as a punching bag.
I used to think I was good at a few games until I had a son.
It will be humbling, but you will have new things to talk about with them.

Cypher one suggestion if you get the XBONE get Forza 5 racing sim. with force-feedback wheel and pedals.  My teenage son and daughter both use me as a punching bag with all games but this one.  I can get cocky and say "who's your daddy" with wheels and pedals but not those thumb sticks.  A low latency tv is a must.

Merry Christmas

lol, this is great!

is XBoxOne, the one i should be looking at?  there are all sorts of bundles.  is there one for Forza?

i've been thinking about the differences in eye hand coordination btwn adults and kids all day.  for instance, while my kids can pown me all day with video games which require fine motor skills of just the fingers, they still can't beat me with more gross, larger muscle activities like ping pong, fooz ball, pool, or shooting baskets.  which tells me their neural linkages leading from their retinas to optic nerves to crossing at the optic chiasm to the synapse at their geniculate nuclei and then to their occipital cortex to the motor centers of the brain and then on down to their fingers are highly developed at a young age.  it's just the large muscle groups for old guys like me that aren't fully there yet and why i have a chance!

Forza sounds good!

Yeah xbox one is the latest and greatest, not sure about Forza bundle.  I've been looking at getting a couple Polaris RZR's for Christmas to get my kids off the video games and maybe get me away from the charts a little bit.  If I had your amount of coins it would be a no brainer.
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December 13, 2014, 02:24:43 AM
 #18679

If I had your amount of coins it would be a no brainer.

i don't have any coins  Grin
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December 13, 2014, 02:26:57 AM
 #18680

If I had your amount of coins it would be a no brainer.

i don't have any coins  Grin

Lovely endorsement

Forgive my petulance and oft-times, I fear, ill-founded criticisms, and forgive me that I have, by this time, made your eyes and head ache with my long letter. But I cannot forgo hastily the pleasure and pride of thus conversing with you.
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