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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1934172 times)
cypherdoc
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December 02, 2014, 10:04:40 PM
 #18281

i'm gonna argue how nicely mining is decentralizing based on this recent chart.  the nice Nash Equilibrium is equilibrating nicely.  the biggest growth is in the smaller pools:

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December 02, 2014, 10:09:19 PM
 #18282

i'm also going to claim that it's being driven by the commoditization of hardware as indicated by the leveling off of the hashrate.  prices have plunged 10-fold allowing more and more smaller pools into the game.  this was predicted here long ago:



furthermore, now that money has appeared to slow to a crawl into the mining "bucket", i think it's now time for that money to flow into the BTC price "bucket".  so hold on.

http://www.coindesk.com/btc-chinas-new-pool-mines-3325-btc-five-weeks/
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December 02, 2014, 10:13:01 PM
 #18283

this sounds pretty amazing.  anyone see any holes?

http://blog.choosecase.com/

Yeah I'm impressed, plus the founder is super hot.  Grin

Hole #1 : no working unit yet. still a prototype so let's see

I'm also curious about how the entropy and how they generate randomness. Even though I own a trezor I'm always kind of on the fence about using third-party hardware to generate my private key.

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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December 02, 2014, 10:13:07 PM
 #18284

oh Lordy.  from our favorite Bitcoin economist  Roll Eyes

https://twitter.com/TheScottRob/status/539895264807378945

he's been crying about this for years.
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December 02, 2014, 10:13:20 PM
 #18285

for those assets, what are the advantages of decentralization?
Lots of advantages in reliability and assurances.  More fundamentally it obsoletes some functions of auditing and government along with the associated costs to society.
It automates many of the administrivia of corporation management.

If you have ever run a public company, the advantages are more immediately apparent.

the pt that i was getting at is that until Bitcoin fulfills Satoshi's visions as a generally accepted and large enough form of currency or money, there will be no such trust or confidence given by the masses or larger financial institutions to embed asset derivatives into the blockchain as the "legal" ledger.

what will drive Bitcoins growth is a maintenance of its Sound Money function along with transactional growth which we are fortunately beginning to see w/o a doubt.  once it becomes a generally accepted global and apolitical public good as money, then it might be used to embed more riskier assets within the blockchain as with CP.

otoh, the blockchain may only ever be applicable to Bitcoin as Money.  in which case, all those speculative assets may just be bought and sold with BTC as they will become denominated as such with the records continuing to be maintained by those organizations responsible for enforcing those contracts.

if we use Bitcoin to win the Money Game, we win Everything.  that is where the problem lies.

Yes Yes...
This is why I would like to see SPV side chains implemented on some altcoins.  
In matters such as these, it is not as important to see how things work, as it is to see how they fail and under what circumstances.

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December 02, 2014, 10:13:58 PM
 #18286

i'm also going to claim that it's being driven by the commoditization of hardware as indicated by the leveling off of the hashrate.  prices have plunged 10-fold allowing more and more smaller pools into the game.  this was predicted here long ago:

The leveling off of the hash rate is almost certainly due to the 70% drop in price. You had huge investment pouring into mining, now you don't. What new gear is going into service is being balanced out by older unprofitable gear coming out of service.

That may in turn have some effect on pool concentration, but the effect is not clear to me, other than the obvious of say ghash not spending a lot on expanding the in house cloud mining right now.

I agree with Greg Maxwell as quoted in that tweet. The issues of mining decentralization have not been solved, as far as I can tell. I don't understand what you are talking about in terms of nash equilibrium so maybe you could expand on that so I can learn something.

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December 02, 2014, 10:21:18 PM
 #18287

i'm also going to claim that it's being driven by the commoditization of hardware as indicated by the leveling off of the hashrate.  prices have plunged 10-fold allowing more and more smaller pools into the game.  this was predicted here long ago:

The leveling off of the hash rate is almost certainly due to the 70% drop in price. You had huge investment pouring into mining, now you don't. What new gear is going into service is being balanced out by older unprofitable gear coming out of service.

That may in turn have some effect on pool concentration, but the effect is not clear to me, other than the obvious of say ghash not spending a lot on expanding the in house cloud mining right now.

I agree with Greg Maxwell as quoted in that tweet. The issues of mining decentralization have not been solved, as far as I can tell. I don't understand what you are talking about in terms of nash equilibrium so maybe you could expand on that so I can learn something.

There's still a ton of investment going into mining companies  Huh

Better guess is they are in R&D mode right now (apparently the case for KnC) and are not putting any significant rig setup online lately

I also disagree with the "commoditization of hardware" argument. We are nowhere near this scenario IMO.

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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December 02, 2014, 10:24:18 PM
 #18288

for those assets, what are the advantages of decentralization?
Lots of advantages in reliability and assurances.  More fundamentally it obsoletes some functions of auditing and government along with the associated costs to society.
It automates many of the administrivia of corporation management.

If you have ever run a public company, the advantages are more immediately apparent.

the pt that i was getting at is that until Bitcoin fulfills Satoshi's visions as a generally accepted and large enough form of currency or money, there will be no such trust or confidence given by the masses or larger financial institutions to embed asset derivatives into the blockchain as the "legal" ledger.

what will drive Bitcoins growth is a maintenance of its Sound Money function along with transactional growth which we are fortunately beginning to see w/o a doubt.  once it becomes a generally accepted global and apolitical public good as money, then it might be used to embed more riskier assets within the blockchain as with CP.

otoh, the blockchain may only ever be applicable to Bitcoin as Money.  in which case, all those speculative assets may just be bought and sold with BTC as they will become denominated as such with the records continuing to be maintained by those organizations responsible for enforcing those contracts.

if we use Bitcoin to win the Money Game, we win Everything.  that is where the problem lies.

Yes Yes...
This is why I would like to see SPV side chains implemented on some altcoins.  
In matters such as these, it is not as important to see how things work, as it is to see how they fail and under what circumstances.


i would prefer NOT to see the spvp implemented, period, for all the reasons i've already made ad nauseum.  let them experiment on federated servers.

i'm not even sure how you'd bring an altcoin into a SC with spvp since the monetary properties of such altcoins are usually so divergent and non-sensical to most Bitcoiners it wouldn't be worth anyone's time or effort.
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December 02, 2014, 10:28:52 PM
 #18289

i'm also going to claim that it's being driven by the commoditization of hardware as indicated by the leveling off of the hashrate.  prices have plunged 10-fold allowing more and more smaller pools into the game.  this was predicted here long ago:

The leveling off of the hash rate is almost certainly due to the 70% drop in price. You had huge investment pouring into mining, now you don't. What new gear is going into service is being balanced out by older unprofitable gear coming out of service.

That may in turn have some effect on pool concentration, but the effect is not clear to me, other than the obvious of say ghash not spending a lot on expanding the in house cloud mining right now.

I agree with Greg Maxwell as quoted in that tweet. The issues of mining decentralization have not been solved, as far as I can tell. I don't understand what you are talking about in terms of nash equilibrium so maybe you could expand on that so I can learn something.



yes, you're absolutely right about the price drop also plateauing mining HR along with commoditization.

i don't agree with Maxwell or the other doomers about mining centralization.  here's where i talk about Nash:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=68655.10175;wap2
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December 02, 2014, 10:29:40 PM
 #18290

for those assets, what are the advantages of decentralization?
Lots of advantages in reliability and assurances.  More fundamentally it obsoletes some functions of auditing and government along with the associated costs to society.
It automates many of the administrivia of corporation management.

If you have ever run a public company, the advantages are more immediately apparent.

the pt that i was getting at is that until Bitcoin fulfills Satoshi's visions as a generally accepted and large enough form of currency or money, there will be no such trust or confidence given by the masses or larger financial institutions to embed asset derivatives into the blockchain as the "legal" ledger.

what will drive Bitcoins growth is a maintenance of its Sound Money function along with transactional growth which we are fortunately beginning to see w/o a doubt.  once it becomes a generally accepted global and apolitical public good as money, then it might be used to embed more riskier assets within the blockchain as with CP.

otoh, the blockchain may only ever be applicable to Bitcoin as Money.  in which case, all those speculative assets may just be bought and sold with BTC as they will become denominated as such with the records continuing to be maintained by those organizations responsible for enforcing those contracts.

if we use Bitcoin to win the Money Game, we win Everything.  that is where the problem lies.

Yes Yes...
This is why I would like to see SPV side chains implemented on some altcoins.  
In matters such as these, it is not as important to see how things work, as it is to see how they fail and under what circumstances.


i would prefer NOT to see the spvp implemented, period, for all the reasons i've already made ad nauseum.  let them experiment on federated servers.

i'm not even sure how you'd bring an altcoin into a SC with spvp since the monetary properties of such altcoins are usually so divergent and non-sensical to most Bitcoiners it wouldn't be worth anyone's time or effort.

I'm quite sure NL was referring to a SPV proof trial test on an altcoin before merging it into Bitcoin.

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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December 02, 2014, 10:37:26 PM
 #18291

this sounds pretty amazing.  anyone see any holes?

http://blog.choosecase.com/

Yes, that's very cool! 

What's unfamiliar to me is how the device gets mobile internet access, in over 60 countries, without roaming or monthly fees:

Quote from: case
The device doesn’t piggy back off your phone for Internet access. It has a dedicated GSM chip and a multi-IMSI embedded SIM card that allows us to hop from carrier to carrier without roaming fees. Bitcoin is a global currency so it seemed silly to have a wallet that didn’t work globally as well. At launch, Case will work in over 60 countries without any monthly fees so you can use it to execute unlimited transactions around the world for the life of the device.

Does the hardware manufacturer somehow pay the carriers so that the devices "just work"? 

Here's some literature on multi-IMSI SIM cards:

http://www.racowireless.com/multi-imsi-sim/

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December 02, 2014, 10:42:55 PM
 #18292

What's unfamiliar to me is how the device gets mobile internet access, in over 60 countries, without roaming or monthly fees:

Amazon does something similar for Kindle readers (they claim 100 countries). I don't know who is being paid or what the payment model looks like.


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December 02, 2014, 10:56:39 PM
 #18293

this sounds pretty amazing.  anyone see any holes?

http://blog.choosecase.com/

Yes, that's very cool!  

What's unfamiliar to me is how the device gets mobile internet access, in over 60 countries, without roaming or monthly fees:

Quote from: case
The device doesn’t piggy back off your phone for Internet access. It has a dedicated GSM chip and a multi-IMSI embedded SIM card that allows us to hop from carrier to carrier without roaming fees. Bitcoin is a global currency so it seemed silly to have a wallet that didn’t work globally as well. At launch, Case will work in over 60 countries without any monthly fees so you can use it to execute unlimited transactions around the world for the life of the device.

Does the hardware manufacturer somehow pay the carriers so that the devices "just work"?  

Here's some literature on multi-IMSI SIM cards:

http://www.racowireless.com/multi-imsi-sim/


i'm interested in the signature scheme.  i know that Trezor was delayed for all that time since they decided, at the last minute, to convert to the HMAC deterministic nonce generation scheme.  i think this was stimulated by the Android hack of non-random PRNG.

http://tools.ietf.org/html/rfc6979
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December 02, 2014, 11:07:46 PM
 #18294

What's unfamiliar to me is how the device gets mobile internet access, in over 60 countries, without roaming or monthly fees:

Amazon does something similar for Kindle readers (they claim 100 countries). I don't know who is being paid or what the payment model looks like.




wow, seems ripe for exploitation.
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December 02, 2014, 11:08:56 PM
 #18295

this sounds pretty amazing.  anyone see any holes?

http://blog.choosecase.com/

It looks good. The server key could be lost of course, and the fingerprint could also be compromised. And the device is kind of complicated. Expensive. But probably good, probably comparable to the trezor in security. This one could be better for point-of-sale operation.

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December 02, 2014, 11:18:17 PM
 #18296

What's unfamiliar to me is how the device gets mobile internet access, in over 60 countries, without roaming or monthly fees:

Amazon does something similar for Kindle readers (they claim 100 countries). I don't know who is being paid or what the payment model looks like.




wow, seems ripe for exploitation.

IIRC these are capped at 50 mb (per month?). The logic is they can cover the data charges by selling you more book from the Amazon bookstore.

I could see Case being able to cover the costs considering the amount of data consumed by an hardware wallet is likely to be very small.

Note that we don't know the price yet of the device yet so that could come into play.

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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December 02, 2014, 11:21:10 PM
 #18297

What's unfamiliar to me is how the device gets mobile internet access, in over 60 countries, without roaming or monthly fees:

Amazon does something similar for Kindle readers (they claim 100 countries). I don't know who is being paid or what the payment model looks like.


Bought the wife a Kindle DX while we were living in Asia. At the time she spent 2-3 hours a day on buses and subways traveling to various jigs.

The Kindle DX connectivity was both free and worked flawlessly everywhere she went. It was one of the few times we've been pleasantly surprised by how well something worked beyond our expectations.

But the connectivity was only useful for purchasing and downloading kindle ebooks and not much else. That's a several MB's per month at most and why the model works. Doubt you'd be allowed to run a Bitcoin node over that free connection...
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December 02, 2014, 11:26:56 PM
 #18298

What's unfamiliar to me is how the device gets mobile internet access, in over 60 countries, without roaming or monthly fees:

Amazon does something similar for Kindle readers (they claim 100 countries). I don't know who is being paid or what the payment model looks like.


Bought the wife a Kindle DX while we were living in Asia. At the time she spent 2-3 hours a day on buses and subways traveling to various jigs.

The Kindle DX connectivity was both free and worked flawlessly everywhere she went. It was one of the few times we've been pleasantly surprised by how well something worked beyond our expectations.

But the connectivity was only useful for purchasing and downloading kindle ebooks and not much else. That's a several MB's per month at most and why the model works. Doubt you'd be allowed to run a Bitcoin node over that free connection...

Yup, but considering that sending and receiving transactions is a matter of kb I can see that model being adopted by Case to fit the need of their device.

It's a very nice proposition in fact and I would certainly be willing to pay a premium for this.

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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December 02, 2014, 11:30:55 PM
 #18299

i would prefer NOT to see the spvp implemented, period, for all the reasons i've already made ad nauseum.  let them experiment on federated servers.

i'm not even sure how you'd bring an altcoin into a SC with spvp since the monetary properties of such altcoins are usually so divergent and non-sensical to most Bitcoiners it wouldn't be worth anyone's time or effort.

If Side Chains run adequately on say LTC for long enough to see some of the tail risks play out, and we figure out how to handle those, then I would see that as a beneficial outcome.

On the other hand, some of the pernicious effects may take a very long time to work out, but we'd see them on LTC well before we'd see them on BTC.  (Or even better some new coin designed with this as its purpose.)

Say for example, what happens when a SC becomes more valuable than its MC and stays more valuable?
What happens when it approaches this circumstance and it upsets the equilibrium (where it may become profitable to attack a SC with already sunk resource from merge mining ASICs that are funded through MC emission)?

These are economic circumstances that would be highly disruptive, but might not manifest for possibly many years after it were implemented.

The point here is that the big win should not be jeopardized for tertiary wins, (I think we agree on this at least), especially when the same thing can be accomplished without such jeopardy.  A Side Chain valuation may approach LTC valuation much more swiftly and there are enough economic analogs that the experience of handling it could be highly instructive.  We may learn that the currently proposed side chain structure isn't viable, or that it is.
We may get to see the reaction from the various regulatory entities that attempt to govern securitisation.   Throwing it onto Bitcoin without a proof of concept elsewhere would be a non-voluntary "taking" (also true for LTC).

At a minimum, this is the sort of thing that a responsible development team would engage.
I like the innovation.  I think it holds great promise.  It is not the big win, but it is a very significant win none the less if it works.

tl;dr
Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.


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Bulk premiums as low as .0012 BTC "BETTER, MORE COLLECTIBLE, AND CHEAPER THAN SILVER EAGLES" 1Free of Government
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December 02, 2014, 11:32:00 PM
 #18300

for those assets, what are the advantages of decentralization?
Lots of advantages in reliability and assurances.  More fundamentally it obsoletes some functions of auditing and government along with the associated costs to society.
It automates many of the administrivia of corporation management.

If you have ever run a public company, the advantages are more immediately apparent.

the pt that i was getting at is that until Bitcoin fulfills Satoshi's visions as a generally accepted and large enough form of currency or money, there will be no such trust or confidence given by the masses or larger financial institutions to embed asset derivatives into the blockchain as the "legal" ledger.

what will drive Bitcoins growth is a maintenance of its Sound Money function along with transactional growth which we are fortunately beginning to see w/o a doubt.  once it becomes a generally accepted global and apolitical public good as money, then it might be used to embed more riskier assets within the blockchain as with CP.

otoh, the blockchain may only ever be applicable to Bitcoin as Money.  in which case, all those speculative assets may just be bought and sold with BTC as they will become denominated as such with the records continuing to be maintained by those organizations responsible for enforcing those contracts.

if we use Bitcoin to win the Money Game, we win Everything.  that is where the problem lies.

Yes Yes...
This is why I would like to see SPV side chains implemented on some altcoins.  
In matters such as these, it is not as important to see how things work, as it is to see how they fail and under what circumstances.


i would prefer NOT to see the spvp implemented, period, for all the reasons i've already made ad nauseum.  let them experiment on federated servers.

i'm not even sure how you'd bring an altcoin into a SC with spvp since the monetary properties of such altcoins are usually so divergent and non-sensical to most Bitcoiners it wouldn't be worth anyone's time or effort.

I'm quite sure NL was referring to a SPV proof trial test on an altcoin before merging it into Bitcoin.

By the time such a trial test had enough time to prove out the various risks of having a multitude of side chains offering new functionality below an established coin, you might just find that usage and gravity inadvertently shifted to that altcoin over bitcoin. I still believe alts are the highest potential threat to the whole experiment. Network effects and the economic need for interoperability between users have successfully kept alt coins at bay so far, but if SC's prove successful network effects might just shift to the tested altcoin.
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