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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 2022643 times)
NotLambchop
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December 01, 2014, 12:31:14 AM
 #18201

...
the only Sound Money left in the world is Bitcoin. 

That's why all the goldbugs are dumping gold and moving their muny into Bitcoin.
As is evidenced by the meteoric rise in Bitcoin prices!

...well, sort'a rise...

...Ok, Fahque, so nothing is happening, so what?@!  Last year there was!  And the year before the year before that!  What's with these artificial timeframes?  FUD!
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Erdogan
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December 01, 2014, 12:38:48 AM
 #18202

Too much investment in surveying, platform and drilling, due to forced low interest rates. It takes 20 years after investment till the product reaches the consumer.

Shale oil probably needs 130 USD to be profitable. Low interest and easy money has led to overinvestments. Those state capitalists and crony capitalists move slowly, so it will go on for some time.


Most is profitable quite a bit lower than that.



Market forces matter too, not just theories about politics.

If you believe those numbers. Edit: Ok, I found that 130 figure deep in my ars, but these drillers have had negative cash flow, they have to loan more money all the time.


NewLiberty
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December 01, 2014, 01:17:39 AM
 #18203

Also with each effort, new efficiencies are found.  Many of the Saudi fields are <$5 so it can go a lot lower if economies slow.
Another unintended consequence is that the falling energy prices may slow (and mask) some inflationary effects allowing this to creep up on the wizards behind the curtains of the Central Banks.

FREE MONEY1 Bitcoin for Silver and Gold NewLibertyDollar.com and now BITCOIN SPECIE (silver 1 ozt) shows value by QR
Bulk premiums as low as .0012 BTC "BETTER, MORE COLLECTIBLE, AND CHEAPER THAN SILVER EAGLES" 1Free of Government
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December 01, 2014, 01:28:54 AM
 #18204

Also with each effort, new efficiencies are found.  Many of the Saudi fields are <$5 so it can go a lot lower if economies slow.
Another unintended consequence is that the falling energy prices may slow (and mask) some inflationary effects allowing this to creep up on the wizards behind the curtains of the Central Banks.

Five dollars - not any more - they need money to spread around. 20 K princes with families, every public service free, and no taxes. It has become a welfare state. They need cash flow.

 

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December 01, 2014, 02:15:07 AM
 #18205

Also with each effort, new efficiencies are found.  Many of the Saudi fields are <$5 so it can go a lot lower if economies slow.
Another unintended consequence is that the falling energy prices may slow (and mask) some inflationary effects allowing this to creep up on the wizards behind the curtains of the Central Banks.

Five dollars - not any more - they need money to spread around. 20 K princes with families, every public service free, and no taxes. It has become a welfare state. They need cash flow.
They can get the oil out of the existing sites pretty cheaply, but there is no reason not to sell all they can with the new supplies available from technical advances.  They can be profitable when others can't.  You are right that they have lots of expenses though, lots of subsidies.  So they will pump away.

Here is some other details on some of the no-longer-profitable US sites (some well over US$130):
http://www.bloomberg.com/infographics/2014-11-19/shale-profits-at-risk.html



Lowest cost of production is in Saudi Arabia due to it being so close to the surface.
The operating cost (stripping out capital expenditure) of extracting a barrel in Saudi Arabia has been estimated to be around $1-$2, and the total cost (including capital expenditure) $4-$6 a barrel.

Even with such low costs, for the oil Saudi Arabia exports to the USA, the USA makes more on taxes levied on US citizens from that oil than Saudi Arabia makes in selling it to the USA.

FREE MONEY1 Bitcoin for Silver and Gold NewLibertyDollar.com and now BITCOIN SPECIE (silver 1 ozt) shows value by QR
Bulk premiums as low as .0012 BTC "BETTER, MORE COLLECTIBLE, AND CHEAPER THAN SILVER EAGLES" 1Free of Government
cypherdoc
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December 01, 2014, 02:34:23 AM
 #18206

Also with each effort, new efficiencies are found.  Many of the Saudi fields are <$5 so it can go a lot lower if economies slow.
Another unintended consequence is that the falling energy prices may slow (and mask) some inflationary effects allowing this to creep up on the wizards behind the curtains of the Central Banks.

Five dollars - not any more - they need money to spread around. 20 K princes with families, every public service free, and no taxes. It has become a welfare state. They need cash flow.
They can get the oil out of the existing sites pretty cheaply, but there is no reason not to sell all they can with the new supplies available from technical advances.  They can be profitable when others can't.  You are right that they have lots of expenses though, lots of subsidies.  So they will pump away.

Here is some other details on some of the no-longer-profitable US sites (some well over US$130):
http://www.bloomberg.com/infographics/2014-11-19/shale-profits-at-risk.html



Lowest cost of production is in Saudi Arabia due to it being so close to the surface.
The operating cost (stripping out capital expenditure) of extracting a barrel in Saudi Arabia has been estimated to be around $1-$2, and the total cost (including capital expenditure) $4-$6 a barrel.

Even with such low costs, for the oil Saudi Arabia exports to the USA, the USA makes more on taxes levied on US citizens from that oil than Saudi Arabia makes in selling it to the USA.

Back in 2005, I swallowed Matt Simmons Twilight in the Desert, hook, line, and sinker. What a mistake.

About the same time i started buying gold and silver. 
johnyj
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December 01, 2014, 07:02:01 AM
 #18207

Swiss gold referendum clearly shows that modern people's financial judgement has already been heavily affected by the central banks education effort


brg444
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Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks


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December 01, 2014, 08:05:25 AM
 #18208



Oil, ruble down, Bitcoin up?

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
Zarathustra
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December 01, 2014, 12:21:49 PM
 #18209

Is Bitcoin the Future?

by John Mauldin
of Mauldin Economics

While I think that Bitcoin as currently configured has limitations, the technology of the blockchain is one of the most potentially revolutionary developments of the last century. I think we evolve to Bitcoin 2.0 or 3.0, using the same blockchain technology, but with a way to make the new currency a truly stable medium of information that can be easily exchanged for goods and services.
Why not create a currency that is backed by a number of commodities, with gold perhaps as the backbone? Why even limit ourselves to commodities? Bitcoin as currently configured could be part of the basket. Anything that can be represented in a digital form and has a reasonably stable long-term value could be considered.

(..)

The Bitcoin blockchain technology allows for the most secure electronic transactions ever devised. Its adoption and acceptance seem inevitable to me. It will be used to validate everything we purchase: stocks, homes, investments, airplane tickets, etc. It will be a far cheaper and much more secure way to validate your ownership of anything, from your home to your stocks.

The blockchain will form the basis for the perfect medium of information exchange (at least as perfect as we humans can create), which in turn will be the basis for whatever electronic medium of financial exchange we evolve in the future. The market (that would be you and me) will move to whatever new medium serves our purposes best.

Satoshi, as technologically brilliant as he (or she or they) was, was limited in his understanding of economic exchange. He was trying to create electronic gold. To some degree, he was confusing technology with money. He was trying to overcome the flaws of our current monetary system (a very laudable goal, I might add) but limited himself to thinking within the box in which the current monetary system placed him.

The next generation of Bitcoin developers are going to crawl out of that box and create whole new realms of possibilities. Once you realize that money is just information, and all you need to do is to provide the most stable mechanism of the transfer of information, you turn thinking about money on its head.


http://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/mauldin_120114.php
justusranvier
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December 01, 2014, 12:26:50 PM
 #18210

The financial parasites and the charlatans who serve them are getting desperate.
cbeast
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.


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December 01, 2014, 12:27:59 PM
 #18211

Is Bitcoin the Future?

by John Mauldin
of Mauldin Economics

It should be Maudlin Economics. He's probably crying himself to tears over thinking he missed the boat with Bitcoin.

Quote
Satoshi, as technologically brilliant as he (or she or they) was, was limited in his understanding of economic exchange. He was trying to create electronic gold. To some degree, he was confusing technology with money. He was trying to overcome the flaws of our current monetary system (a very laudable goal, I might add) but limited himself to thinking within the box in which the current monetary system placed him.
What box is he talking about? Satoshi knew very well about Modern Money Mechanics.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
brg444
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Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks


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December 01, 2014, 12:29:43 PM
 #18212

Why not create a currency that is backed by a number of commodities, with gold perhaps as the backbone? Why even limit ourselves to commodities? Bitcoin as currently configured could be part of the basket. Anything that can be represented in a digital form and has a reasonably stable long-term value could be considered.

 Roll Eyes

And then he suggest Satoshi was "limited in his understanding of economic exchange"....

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
BldSwtTrs
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December 01, 2014, 12:31:41 PM
 #18213

Is Bitcoin the Future?

by John Mauldin
of Mauldin Economics

While I think that Bitcoin as currently configured has limitations, the technology of the blockchain is one of the most potentially revolutionary developments of the last century. I think we evolve to Bitcoin 2.0 or 3.0, using the same blockchain technology, but with a way to make the new currency a truly stable medium of information that can be easily exchanged for goods and services.
Why not create a currency that is backed by a number of commodities, with gold perhaps as the backbone? Why even limit ourselves to commodities? Bitcoin as currently configured could be part of the basket. Anything that can be represented in a digital form and has a reasonably stable long-term value could be considered.

(..)

The Bitcoin blockchain technology allows for the most secure electronic transactions ever devised. Its adoption and acceptance seem inevitable to me. It will be used to validate everything we purchase: stocks, homes, investments, airplane tickets, etc. It will be a far cheaper and much more secure way to validate your ownership of anything, from your home to your stocks.

The blockchain will form the basis for the perfect medium of information exchange (at least as perfect as we humans can create), which in turn will be the basis for whatever electronic medium of financial exchange we evolve in the future. The market (that would be you and me) will move to whatever new medium serves our purposes best.

Satoshi, as technologically brilliant as he (or she or they) was, was limited in his understanding of economic exchange. He was trying to create electronic gold. To some degree, he was confusing technology with money. He was trying to overcome the flaws of our current monetary system (a very laudable goal, I might add) but limited himself to thinking within the box in which the current monetary system placed him.

The next generation of Bitcoin developers are going to crawl out of that box and create whole new realms of possibilities. Once you realize that money is just information, and all you need to do is to provide the most stable mechanism of the transfer of information, you turn thinking about money on its head.


http://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/mauldin_120114.php
So the guy want to back Bitcoin with gold and he thinks Satoshi's views of economics was limited... What a moron.


Zarathustra
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December 01, 2014, 12:42:12 PM
 #18214


So the guy want to back Bitcoin with gold and he thinks Satoshi's views of economics was limited... What a moron.

Yes, crazy, but at least they smell the potential of the blockchain.
NotLambchop
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December 01, 2014, 12:47:21 PM
 #18215

The financial parasites and the charlatans who serve them are getting desperate.

Glorious Bitcoin shall triumph scientifically, Comrade Dog!

cbeast
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.


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December 01, 2014, 12:48:49 PM
 #18216

Now I almost miss talking about Side Chains.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
cypherdoc
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December 01, 2014, 01:22:23 PM
 #18217

I've read one of Mauldins books and used to sub to his email newsletter. But like most, he's misunderstanding Bitcoin. And Worth Wray was doing so well.

He, and so many others, are going to be living examples of the greatest wealth transfer in human history.
600watt
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December 01, 2014, 03:10:46 PM
 #18218


So the guy want to back Bitcoin with gold and he thinks Satoshi's views of economics was limited... What a moron.

Yes, crazy, but at least they smell the potential of the blockchain.


i went through the entire story he/they wrote. it is a brilliant example of how bitcoin crawls into everyones head that is giving it a chance. those guys are very open about their learning experience and i think this is valuable information.
sickpig
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December 01, 2014, 03:28:49 PM
 #18219

Now I almost miss talking about Side Chains.

LOLed so hard

Bitcoin is a participatory system which ought to respect the right of self determinism of all of its users - Gregory Maxwell.
Peter R
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December 01, 2014, 04:36:56 PM
 #18220

Is Bitcoin the Future?

by John Mauldin
of Mauldin Economics

While I think that Bitcoin as currently configured has limitations, the technology of the blockchain is one of the most potentially revolutionary developments of the last century. I think we evolve to Bitcoin 2.0 or 3.0, using the same blockchain technology, but with a way to make the new currency a truly stable medium of information that can be easily exchanged for goods and services.
Why not create a currency that is backed by a number of commodities, with gold perhaps as the backbone? Why even limit ourselves to commodities? Bitcoin as currently configured could be part of the basket. Anything that can be represented in a digital form and has a reasonably stable long-term value could be considered.

...

I feel as though I'm watching my own learning curve for bitcoin play out in ultra slow motion as I continue to read articles such as this.   John Mauldin has understood blockchain technology as a decentralized ledger for recording transactions (time-stamp server).  What he's missed is that half the benefit of using the blockchain as money is lost if these transactions represent claims on real assets (commodity-backed tokens) rather than the transfer of the asset itself (bitcoin).  

It's quite interesting.  He uses the word "information" in an unusual way, like he half-gets the money-as-memory concept:

"a way to make the new currency a truly stable medium of information that can be easily exchanged for goods and services"

yet then proposes to back this "information" with a basket of commodities.  Can he not see that "backing" reintroduces centralization and counter-party risk, clouding the pure form of information that bitcoin already is?  

I've always been a fan of Cypherdoc's quote "the blockchain may only be applicable to money," not that I think it's necessarily true, but that it reminds us of the huge gap in trust and complexity between using the blockchain as money and using it as some sort of generalized notary system.  The thing is, we've largely solved the former problem and that's a vastly more important problem than the latter.  

Bitcoin is the Blockchain's native unit--the two cannot be separated.  

Run Bitcoin Unlimited (www.bitcoinunlimited.info)
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