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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 2022643 times)
Melbustus
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December 15, 2014, 02:25:34 AM
 #18721

...
and we really are a mere 5 yrs in.  when i bought in i mentally told myself i would give it to 2020 to make a final decision on Bitcoin esp if it hadn't failed by then.  that's still 6 whole years away.


I gave myself 10yrs from when I first dove in to do any re-evaluation (assuming no core protocol/crypto issues, etc). So Bitcoin has an extra year to prove itself to me vs you. Smiley

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marcus_of_augustus
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December 15, 2014, 02:39:30 AM
 #18722

bitcoin $5 Bill

Paypal $50 Bill

Alibaba IPO $200 Bill

Microsoft $390 Bill

Apple $640 Bill

Morgan Stanley Managed Private Wealth Funds $1.5 Trill

Gold $7 Trill

Offshore Deposits $15 Trill

Global M2 money supply $60 Trill

Gross World Product $80 Trill

Global Notional Derivatives $800 Trill

.... we are at the bottom of HUGE mountain range looking upwards.

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December 15, 2014, 04:08:28 AM
 #18723

Quote

Gold could go down 20% or maybe 30% but it can go up 50%, 100% or a lot more so it seems like a good investment especially since you can have Gold without much third party risk.

Gold is certainly a good bet at this point, brother. See here for patterns and details: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=869664.msg9823983#msg9823983

 Wink


Gold is aided by the drop in oil barrel pricing as alot of the costs are related to energy and construction equipment gets pretty bad mileage!      Also any worries on country credit worthiness should help gold which is retained by central banks for this purpose as an irrefutable exchange of worth in global trade.   Also low oil causes problems with rebalancing budgets, USA is consumer of course but elsewhere; Venezuela nears default

Zangelbert Bingledack
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December 15, 2014, 06:55:51 AM
 #18724

Daniel continues to echo my sentiment:

http://bitcoinist.net/the-two-ideologies-in-bitcoin/

This guy gets it. Does anyone keep a shortlist of who is on the investor side, prominent figures and/or forum and reddit posters? I could name a few people off the top of my head, but it might be useful to have a list.
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December 15, 2014, 07:16:18 AM
 #18725

I have stumbled upon this chart on the internet, regarding the Gartner's hype cycle:

As of July 2014, cryptos just came out of the peak of inflated expectations to enter the trough of disillusionment. It is safe to say that the trough of disillusionment don't last only 6 months but typically can last 2 to 3 years. So maybe Bitcoin will be as revolutionary as we think but the bear market will last another 1 or 2 years. What do you think about that?

I'm hearing that timeframe thrown around a lot (1 or 2 years).

It coincides with the next halving, to it's an intuitive fit. It also makes sense to see a long sideways (or slightly downwards or whatever) stretch as it usually happens in bitcoin after a huge runup has corrected. It also makes sense that it would take longer than in the past because the market has grown in number of participants, so it's quite conceivable it behaves more sluggishly.

However my gut says we'll see a substantial rise before 1 year has passed (i.e. in 2015). Not necessarily breaking the ath yet, but substantial. Why? Continual adoption plus the experience of the last halving will have the effect that more players will price in the halving sooner (or at all) than last time, so we might get an ignition before, not after the actual reward halving occurs.

At some point the rising price will create another hype in a positive feedback loop. Noone know where that will take us and really noone knows when or even if it will occur. Some black swan type event can happen at any time external to bitcoin and trigger it, too.

I'm betting on it. Be it 1 day or 2 years.

If bitcoin fails to break the ath by end of 2016 or falls and remains below $266 for an extended period (months), then I'm worried.

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
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December 15, 2014, 09:32:07 AM
 #18726

I have stumbled upon this chart on the internet, regarding the Gartner's hype cycle:

As of July 2014, cryptos just came out of the peak of inflated expectations to enter the trough of disillusionment. It is safe to say that the trough of disillusionment don't last only 6 months but typically can last 2 to 3 years. So maybe Bitcoin will be as revolutionary as we think but the bear market will last another 1 or 2 years. What do you think about that?

i don't think we've even reached the Peak in that graph.  considering the $5T traded PER DAY in the Forex markets plus the $8T valued gold market, we've only just begun.

The thing I don't like about the graph is the shape of it, where the true growth never reaches the hype. Sure that happens, but there are many technologies that go through a hype phase and a bust, but then the real growth on the right side eventually eclipses the original hype.

It is possible that Bitcoin is doing that (with the peak in late 2013/early 2014) and will indeed, eventually grow to something on the scale of trillions far exceeding the previous peak, but somewhat more slowly.

Also, I don't believe it is really possible to position/rank/value technologies on the left side of the peak. You only know the peak in hindsight.


Growth isn't an axis on the chart. The y-axis is expectations not growth. By the time of maturity Bitcoin could be a lot bigger than it was at the height of expectations, but have lower expectations.

If you liked this post -> 1KRYhandiYsjecZw7mtdLnoeuKUYoGRkH4
Melbustus
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December 15, 2014, 10:04:26 AM
 #18727

...

I'm hearing that timeframe thrown around a lot (1 or 2 years).

It coincides with the next halving, to it's an intuitive fit. It also makes sense to see a long sideways (or slightly downwards or whatever) stretch as it usually happens in bitcoin after a huge runup has corrected. It also makes sense that it would take longer than in the past because the market has grown in number of participants, so it's quite conceivable it behaves more sluggishly.

However my gut says we'll see a substantial rise before 1 year has passed (i.e. in 2015). Not necessarily breaking the ath yet, but substantial. Why? Continual adoption plus the experience of the last halving will have the effect that more players will price in the halving sooner (or at all) than last time, so we might get an ignition before, not after the actual reward halving occurs.
...

I feel like the chatter about the halving has already started. Feels like early-mid 2012 in that regard.



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solex
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December 15, 2014, 10:39:47 AM
 #18728

...

I'm hearing that timeframe thrown around a lot (1 or 2 years).

It coincides with the next halving, to it's an intuitive fit. It also makes sense to see a long sideways (or slightly downwards or whatever) stretch as it usually happens in bitcoin after a huge runup has corrected. It also makes sense that it would take longer than in the past because the market has grown in number of participants, so it's quite conceivable it behaves more sluggishly.

However my gut says we'll see a substantial rise before 1 year has passed (i.e. in 2015). Not necessarily breaking the ath yet, but substantial. Why? Continual adoption plus the experience of the last halving will have the effect that more players will price in the halving sooner (or at all) than last time, so we might get an ignition before, not after the actual reward halving occurs.
...

I feel like the chatter about the halving has already started. Feels like early-mid 2012 in that regard.


June 2016 still a way off.
However, Namecoin is halving tomorrow which might produce an interesting market reaction (or not :-)

sickpig
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December 15, 2014, 12:57:59 PM
 #18729

"Chinese banks are haemorrhaging their deposits ..."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-14/forget-the-toaster-chinese-bank-offers-mercedes-to-get-deposits.html

and even a russian bank seems to use the same technique:

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/c1-bank-brings-back-its-1-million-mercedes-benz-cd-just-in-time-for-the-holidays-300002192.html


edit: fix grammar

Bitcoin is a participatory system which ought to respect the right of self determinism of all of its users - Gregory Maxwell.
sickpig
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December 15, 2014, 02:26:55 PM
 #18730

cypher it seems another one has joined your side Tongue

https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/544494460294680576

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December 15, 2014, 02:40:30 PM
 #18731

cypher it seems another one has joined your side Tongue

https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/544494460294680576

I wish. From the comments by Adam:

We can't rely on Bob not to spam the blockchain (to the point of disrupting service) using a bazillion Bob coins, each of zero market value, therefore the only answer is that transaction fees must remain in bitcoin to use the bitcoin blockchain (or sidechains denominated in bitcoin).
dEBRUYNE
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December 15, 2014, 02:49:39 PM
 #18732

...

I'm hearing that timeframe thrown around a lot (1 or 2 years).

It coincides with the next halving, to it's an intuitive fit. It also makes sense to see a long sideways (or slightly downwards or whatever) stretch as it usually happens in bitcoin after a huge runup has corrected. It also makes sense that it would take longer than in the past because the market has grown in number of participants, so it's quite conceivable it behaves more sluggishly.

However my gut says we'll see a substantial rise before 1 year has passed (i.e. in 2015). Not necessarily breaking the ath yet, but substantial. Why? Continual adoption plus the experience of the last halving will have the effect that more players will price in the halving sooner (or at all) than last time, so we might get an ignition before, not after the actual reward halving occurs.
...

I feel like the chatter about the halving has already started. Feels like early-mid 2012 in that regard.


June 2016 still a way off.
However, Namecoin is halving tomorrow which might produce an interesting market reaction (or not :-)

Up 20% currently, look at those weird up & down spikes on the chart: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/nmcbtc

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cypherdoc
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December 15, 2014, 04:44:30 PM
 #18733

hella intraday reversal.  look the hella out:

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December 15, 2014, 04:46:54 PM
 #18734

still no go.  Wall St does not believe in you dear plebes:

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December 15, 2014, 04:51:39 PM
 #18735

that sweet smell of deflation:



and more black hole shit:



yowzer!:

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December 15, 2014, 04:54:34 PM
 #18736

We can't rely on Bob not to spam the blockchain (to the point of disrupting service) using a bazillion Bob coins, each of zero market value, therefore the only answer is that transaction fees must remain in bitcoin to use the bitcoin blockchain (or sidechains denominated in bitcoin).
That quote makes me think there's still an unmet need for collaboration between cryptographers and market economists.
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December 15, 2014, 06:07:15 PM
 #18737

Growth isn't an axis on the chart. The y-axis is expectations not growth. By the time of maturity Bitcoin could be a lot bigger than it was at the height of expectations, but have lower expectations.

This is a true statement in general, however simple arithmetic (ok, and some reasonable assumptions about use cases) implies that the price of Bitcoin would have to be at least 100x larger if it had, say, a billion users. So, if the price of Bitcoin today was $5 million per BTC, then I would agree with you... the Bitcoin ecosystem could keep growing while the expectations (i.e., market price) would just keep going down (because expectations went unreasonably high, beyond the equilibrium value). However, at current prices, it's just impossible for Bitcoin to grow much more without also raising the market price.
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December 15, 2014, 06:33:57 PM
 #18738

Growth isn't an axis on the chart. The y-axis is expectations not growth. By the time of maturity Bitcoin could be a lot bigger than it was at the height of expectations, but have lower expectations.

This is a true statement in general, however simple arithmetic (ok, and some reasonable assumptions about use cases) implies that the price of Bitcoin would have to be at least 100x larger if it had, say, a billion users. So, if the price of Bitcoin today was $5 million per BTC, then I would agree with you... the Bitcoin ecosystem could keep growing while the expectations (i.e., market price) would just keep going down (because expectations went unreasonably high, beyond the equilibrium value). However, at current prices, it's just impossible for Bitcoin to grow much more without also raising the market price.

I'll add that the new coin supply (25 BTC block reward every 10 min) makes it difficult for investors to cling to unrealistic expectations over the medium term. At ~3600 BTC/day, the current price of ~$350 / BTC requires ~$1.3 million of new capital (money, energy for hashing, etc) to enter the system.  A stable price means that there's sufficient demand to absorb these new coins.  A price based on "unrealistic expectations" cannot last because the new coin supply requires that market participants continuously inject new capital to back their unrealistic expectation---but eventually they run out of money and the price falls.  (E.g., if the BTC price was $5 million per coin like Chris mentioned, it would require $18 billion in new capital each day.  Even if every current holder refused to sell for less than $5 million the price would still drop unless those holders in aggregate can inject $18 billion each day to absorb the mining supply.)

Bitcoin's inflation schedule is quite ingenious actually because the new supply forces the price back to a level commensurate with new demand.  It's not possible for the price to remain overly-hyped for too long.  

Run Bitcoin Unlimited (www.bitcoinunlimited.info)
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December 15, 2014, 06:47:58 PM
 #18739

Bitcoin's inflation schedule is quite ingenious actually because the new supply forces the price back to a level commensurate with new demand.  It's not possible for the price to remain overly-hyped for too long.  


yes it is, isn't it?

the asymptotic distribution schedule encourages new miners to get in and attempt to compete for these new coins with each and every new innovative or economically advantageous way they can devise.  current miners are encouraged to stay as long as they can keep up with costs.  new buyers of BTC are encouraged to get in on a new fixed supply currency that is "still" bootstrapping itself. 

it's obvious now (but not always in times past) that pre-mined or IPO'd altcoins are unfair to new entrants.
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December 15, 2014, 06:58:25 PM
 #18740

At ~3600 BTC/day, the current price of ~$350 / BTC requires ~$1.3 million of new capital (money, energy for hashing, etc) to enter the system.
Your list of capital types should include products and services.

Every person who sells their productivity for Bitcoin and does not immediately spend what they earn is contributing to that ~$1.3 million/day requirement.
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