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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 2008711 times)
cypherdoc
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December 08, 2014, 05:11:54 PM
 #18581

the Black Hole vortex continues to suck in all things valued:

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cypherdoc
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December 08, 2014, 05:47:54 PM
 #18582

it's starting:

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Citigroup Inc. are among at least five banks urging big clients in the U.S. to park cash elsewhere as new rules make it onerous to hold certain deposits, the Wall Street Journal reported.

HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA), Deutsche Bank AG and Bank of America Corp. expressed similar concerns in private talks with customers in past months, the newspaper said, citing unidentified people familiar with the conversations. In some cases, banks told clients -- including corporations, hedge funds, insurers and smaller lenders -- that fees may be added to accounts that have been free, it said. Banks, struggling to balance rising costs for certain deposits, already have begun charging customers for holding large amounts of euros, passing on fees imposed by the European Central Bank. Bank of New York Mellon Corp., which holds money for institutional investors, began charging for euro deposits on Oct. 1, Chief Financial Officer Todd Gibbons said that month, joining peers in passing along so-called negative interest rates.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-08/banks-urge-big-u-s-clients-to-move-deposits-wsj-reports.html
rocks
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December 08, 2014, 06:15:02 PM
 #18583

His criticisms in this piece are essentially:
1) We haven't seen it during an economic downturn.
2) Government's are causing problems for it.
Both are irrefutably true.

We don't see these as insurmountable barriers, however most people do.
The market has bitcoin currently priced at about a 1% chance of success or less at its current valuations.
We are betting on the long-shot to win, and while I think we are in the right, it is rational to bet against us.

More importantly, if we do not recognize the valid criticisms against our position, we are both (a) insane and (b) unable to adequately overcome them.

This is important because it often feels that bitcoiners believe full adoption of Bitcoin is inevitable and it's eventual success is guaranteed, and as a result do not want to acknowledge real world barriers to wide spread adoption that are outside concepts of what is money.

The taxation issue he raises is a massive problem (which I tried to discuss last week). Having to report every coffee purchase to the IRS is simply unworkable at many levels. Maybe people excited for Bitcoin will do so, but most see it as too much of a hassle to bother. Incidentally taxation is one factor that broke gold's role as money. Under the gold standard using gold as money in transactions was not a taxable event, today it is.

And taxation is just an example of the government applying existing laws to bitcoins. The government has a multitude of addition tools in it's tool belt to maintain dollar superiority, from regulations (Bitlicense) to new laws to co-opting functionality the public demonstrates preferences for (the USDollarCoin example last week).

These current and future barriers could very much force Bitcoin to take a black market economy route towards larger adoption, which is a much slower path.

Check out this:
https://coinreport.net/james-rickards-takes-bitcoin/

His position is highly nuanced.

I am much more bullish than Richards on bitcoin's possibilities, but his concerns are all valid and it essentially comes down to opinions on how things will play out.

My personal belief is what gives bitcoin a possible chance is the fact that the existing financial system is on it's last legs (NIRP is a perfect example), and as it slowly breaks down an alternative will have to be found.

Bitcoin offers the global public an apolitical and non-government option, which would be ideal in a dollar breakdown scenario.
cypherdoc
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December 08, 2014, 06:41:06 PM
 #18584

time for heads up:

cypherdoc
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December 08, 2014, 06:44:27 PM
 #18585

the creeping VIX:

cypherdoc
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December 08, 2014, 08:07:36 PM
 #18586

https://oslofreedomforum.com/talks/the-revolution-will-be-encrypted
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December 08, 2014, 08:37:08 PM
 #18587

The Cyprus bail-in was certainly merely coincidental with the April 2013 bitcoin run-up. But what happened to their stockmarket since the credit crisis began?

100 euros invested at the peak becomes 29 cents.

The Greatest Crash in History Revisited
Quote
Let us briefly ponder the mathematics of this wipe-out: when the market was down by 90%, it fell by another 50% at which point it was down 95% from the high. Thereafter, it fell by another 50%, ending down 97.5% from the high. Then it fell by another 50%, at which point it was down 98.75% from the high. Then it fell by 50% again and was down 99.375%. Surely this was bad enough? Nope…it then fell by yet another 50%, landing at 99.6875% down from its 2007 high. Unfortunately, the low was still not quite in yet at that juncture.

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=34594#more-34594


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December 08, 2014, 08:58:31 PM
 #18588

The Cyrpus bail-in was certainly merely coincidental with the April 2013 bitcoin run-up. But what happened to their stockmarket since the credit crisis began?

100 euros invested at the peak becomes 29 cents.

The Greatest Crash in History Revisited
Quote
Let us briefly ponder the mathematics of this wipe-out: when the market was down by 90%, it fell by another 50% at which point it was down 95% from the high. Thereafter, it fell by another 50%, ending down 97.5% from the high. Then it fell by another 50%, at which point it was down 98.75% from the high. Then it fell by 50% again and was down 99.375%. Surely this was bad enough? Nope…it then fell by yet another 50%, landing at 99.6875% down from its 2007 high. Unfortunately, the low was still not quite in yet at that juncture.

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=34594#more-34594



Wow, what a  great read. 
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December 08, 2014, 09:08:14 PM
 #18589

The Cyrpus bail-in was certainly merely coincidental with the April 2013 bitcoin run-up. But what happened to their stockmarket since the credit crisis began?

100 euros invested at the peak becomes 29 cents.

The Greatest Crash in History Revisited
Quote
Let us briefly ponder the mathematics of this wipe-out: when the market was down by 90%, it fell by another 50% at which point it was down 95% from the high. Thereafter, it fell by another 50%, ending down 97.5% from the high. Then it fell by another 50%, at which point it was down 98.75% from the high. Then it fell by 50% again and was down 99.375%. Surely this was bad enough? Nope…it then fell by yet another 50%, landing at 99.6875% down from its 2007 high. Unfortunately, the low was still not quite in yet at that juncture.

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=34594#more-34594



Wow, what a  great read.  

This is really instructive because, for a small country like Cyprus, the euro is effectively a gold-standard. Normally a country will hyperinflate in great crisis and the equity market will look good. Zimbabwe's stock market was the best performer in 2007 (in local currency terms). The obliteration of the Cypriot equity market began as painful medicine for years of over-exuberance, but the government seizure of private savings, capital flight and rigid capital controls made good money scarce and destroyed confidence - hence the knife-catchers got stabbed.


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December 08, 2014, 09:19:04 PM
 #18590

crazy, just crazy:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-08/one-hundred-years-of-bond-history-means-bears-destined-to-lose.html
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December 08, 2014, 10:07:37 PM
 #18591

@pmarca:

Peter R
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December 08, 2014, 10:28:00 PM
 #18592

Is anybody here planning to attend the North American Bitcoin Conference in Miami Beach Jan 16 - 18?

http://btcmiami.com


Run Bitcoin Unlimited (www.bitcoinunlimited.info)
rocks
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December 08, 2014, 11:08:22 PM
 #18593


The reason rates can not go up (and bonds go down) is simply because given the about of debt owed the government could not possibly support interest payments if rates went up, even if they only rose to historical averages. Japanification has come to the US. Japan has such a massive debt load that if rates went to 3% interest payments would be higher than tax revenues, i.e. if Japan cut ALL government services they'd still be running a deficit. So rates have been keep at near zero for a long time.

Same thing in the US now. Here is a chart showing the evolution of "forward guidance" on the fed funds rate.



Notice the pattern?  They keep saying "trust us rates will go up soon", but then never increase rates. Again and again and again. The reason is simple and easily understood by anyone who can read a balance sheet and cash flow statement, the government simply can not afford higher rates, so the government will never allow rates to increase.
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December 09, 2014, 05:44:54 AM
 #18594

Rates will rise by about 2% before implosion

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NewLiberty
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December 09, 2014, 12:13:16 PM
 #18595

Is anybody here planning to attend the North American Bitcoin Conference in Miami Beach Jan 16 - 18?

http://btcmiami.com

Moe puts on awesome conferences.  Miami last year was a blast.

FREE MONEY1 Bitcoin for Silver and Gold NewLibertyDollar.com and now BITCOIN SPECIE (silver 1 ozt) shows value by QR
Bulk premiums as low as .0012 BTC "BETTER, MORE COLLECTIBLE, AND CHEAPER THAN SILVER EAGLES" 1Free of Government
cypherdoc
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December 09, 2014, 03:09:04 PM
 #18596

Victory in the battle for the digital wallet may not necessarily go the swiftest, but an over-cautious approach could leave banks trailing in the dust of early adopters.

http://www.kpmg.com/Global/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Frontiers-in-Finance/Pages/virtual-currencies-get-real-fs.aspx
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December 09, 2014, 03:24:01 PM
 #18597

We definitely live in a crazy/exciting world:

http://cointelegraph.com/news/113077/venezuelan-politician-buys-out-bankrupt-hashfast


Bitcoin is a participatory system which ought to respect the right of self determinism of all of its users - Gregory Maxwell.
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December 09, 2014, 03:29:01 PM
 #18598

major short term Dow Theory non-conf on the board.  makes sense with oil and Baltic Dry plunging along with other commodities except for gold.  i think this is real so high alert on stocks:



cypherdoc
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December 09, 2014, 03:31:25 PM
 #18599

like i said, gold could go all the way to 1300 in a major head fake.  i'll be waiting for you  Grin:

cypherdoc
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December 09, 2014, 03:33:04 PM
 #18600

VIX more than creeping.  more like green up the ass.  this one should hurt bad:

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