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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 2013933 times)
cypherdoc
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December 17, 2014, 12:50:57 AM
 #18821

this is encouraging from Google and Yahoo:

http://googleonlinesecurity.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/an-update-to-end-to-end.html
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rocks
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December 17, 2014, 01:08:35 AM
 #18822

I've been warning about this shit for months now right here.  The charts have been forecasting this. Get yourselves to safety.

For close 100 years getting to safety has meant running to the US dollar. It is how the federal government has been able to thrive and grow the way it has. Every time there is a crisis the US government has never lacked for funding because the world runs into its debt, because of this it has been able to fund itself freely during every crisis, without care or worry.

Most sane organizations would never consider creating the massive number of obligations the US government has, obligations the must continue to be paid no matter the current environment. This includes a massive global military presence that requires funding every day, a massive welfare state that requires funding every day, a massive number of unfunded social liabilities that require funding every day. Without continuous funding our military overseas would stave for oil in a matter of weeks and over a hundred million in the US would suffer dramatically.

If at some point the market does not run to dollars in a crisis, the US government would find itself is a horrific situation from which there is no escape. A situation that was of it's own making but one it is completely unprepared to handle.

Luckily (or unluckily) I believe this end point is still a ways away. The Keynesian central banking model still has more tricks to utilize and I suspect the next upcoming crisis will play out the same as in 2008/09, the central banks will first allow the markets to crash, then create money out of thin air at public demand, then give that money to their own first to buy up assets cheap, then create more money and let that trickle into the economy so the public can re-buy at higher "recovered" prices.

So the question is which "safety" have you run to? Bitcoin, dollars, hard assets, Pb?
grappa_barricata
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December 17, 2014, 01:39:45 AM
 #18823

For close 100 years getting to safety has meant running to the US dollar. It is how the federal government has been able to thrive and grow the way it has. Every time there is a crisis the US government has never lacked for funding because the world runs into its debt, because of this it has been able to fund itself freely during every crisis, without care or worry.

Most sane organizations would never consider creating the massive number of obligations the US government has, obligations the must continue to be paid no matter the current environment. This includes a massive global military presence that requires funding every day, a massive welfare state that requires funding every day, a massive number of unfunded social liabilities that require funding every day. Without continuous funding our military overseas would stave for oil in a matter of weeks and over a hundred million in the US would suffer dramatically.

If at some point the market does not run to dollars in a crisis, the US government would find itself is a horrific situation from which there is no escape. A situation that was of it's own making but one it is completely unprepared to handle.

Luckily (or unluckily) I believe this end point is still a ways away. The Keynesian central banking model still has more tricks to utilize and I suspect the next upcoming crisis will play out the same as in 2008/09, the central banks will first allow the markets to crash, then create money out of thin air at public demand, then give that money to their own first to buy up assets cheap, then create more money and let that trickle into the economy so the public can re-buy at higher "recovered" prices.

So the question is which "safety" have you run to? Bitcoin, dollars, hard assets, Pb?

You may want to look up in these matters:
  - Nixon's shock and aftermath
  - so-called petrodollar system (not limited to oil)
  - US bonds flows (or the lack of)

It will be very interesting to you.

Fortune cannot take away what she has not given.
solex
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December 17, 2014, 02:18:21 AM
 #18824

Oh well, always next year...


Melbustus
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December 17, 2014, 02:29:38 AM
 #18825

Oh well, always next year...




It's too bad the 2013 rally didn't start 2 months later than it did. Then the bubble would've been entirely contained within 2014 and we'd be talking about how bitcoin is UP over 50% during the year...

But whatever. The media can spin a 2500% 2yr ROI however they want.

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HeliKopterBen
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December 17, 2014, 02:56:41 AM
 #18826

“We couldn’t imagine what’s happening in our worst nightmare even a year ago,” Shvetsov, who oversees financial markets at the central bank, said yesterday.

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-16/russia-crisis-hits-pimco-fund-wipes-out-options-as-ruble-sinks.html

I've been warning  about this shit for months now right here.  The charts have been forecasting this. Get yourselves to safety.

"He said the surprise interest-rate increase in the middle of the night, a 6.5 percentage-point move that failed to stem the run on the ruble yesterday"

This proves that central banks cannot control the value of a currency.  Eventually the USD should have the same fate.

Counterfeit:  made in imitation of something else with intent to deceive:  merriam-webster
cypherdoc
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December 17, 2014, 03:12:23 AM
 #18827

“We couldn’t imagine what’s happening in our worst nightmare even a year ago,” Shvetsov, who oversees financial markets at the central bank, said yesterday.

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-16/russia-crisis-hits-pimco-fund-wipes-out-options-as-ruble-sinks.html

I've been warning  about this shit for months now right here.  The charts have been forecasting this. Get yourselves to safety.

"He said the surprise interest-rate increase in the middle of the night, a 6.5 percentage-point move that failed to stem the run on the ruble yesterday"

This proves that central banks cannot control the value of a currency.  Eventually the USD should have the same fate.

they certainly do seem to be able to bully it around for certain time periods; often longer than we can imagine.  but you're right, every once in a while they do lose control and things get ugly.  i find it very suspicious that Bitcoin popped up organically in 2009, right after the crisis.  it sure seems like it is poised to radically change the game.
smooth
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December 17, 2014, 03:17:12 AM
 #18828

i find it very suspicious that Bitcoin popped up organically in 2009, right after the crisis.

Suspicious how? Satoshi's rhetoric (right down to the genesis block quote) was clearly directed right at the heart of the crisis. Whether that was really a motivation for the project or opportunistic marketing is unclear though.
cypherdoc
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December 17, 2014, 03:18:28 AM
 #18829

i find it very suspicious that Bitcoin popped up organically in 2009, right after the crisis.

Suspicious how? Satoshi's rhetoric (right down to the genesis block quote) was clearly directed right at the heart of the crisis. Whether that was really a motivation for the project or opportunistic marketing is unclear though.


suspicious in the sense of "fate".  or, as in, perfect timing. 
smooth
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December 17, 2014, 03:22:24 AM
 #18830

obligations the must continue to be paid no matter the current environment.

This is false. The only question is where is the breaking point (and how close to it we are), not whether there is one.

"Trends that can't continue, won't"

marcus_of_augustus
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December 17, 2014, 03:37:03 AM
 #18831

obligations the must continue to be paid no matter the current environment.
This is false. The only question is where is the breaking point (and how close to it we are), not whether there is one.

"Trends that can't continue, won't"


... too much of a good thing will never be good for you.

HeliKopterBen
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December 17, 2014, 03:38:05 AM
 #18832

“We couldn’t imagine what’s happening in our worst nightmare even a year ago,” Shvetsov, who oversees financial markets at the central bank, said yesterday.

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-16/russia-crisis-hits-pimco-fund-wipes-out-options-as-ruble-sinks.html

I've been warning  about this shit for months now right here.  The charts have been forecasting this. Get yourselves to safety.

"He said the surprise interest-rate increase in the middle of the night, a 6.5 percentage-point move that failed to stem the run on the ruble yesterday"

This proves that central banks cannot control the value of a currency.  Eventually the USD should have the same fate.

they certainly do seem to be able to bully it around for certain time periods; often longer than we can imagine.  but you're right, every once in a while they do lose control and things get ugly.  i find it very suspicious that Bitcoin popped up organically in 2009, right after the crisis.  it sure seems like it is poised to radically change the game.

Those bully tactics won't work if the majority of their populace decide that a better alternative exists.  The more and more central banks intervene, the more and more the fiat ledger gets distorted.  Eventually you lose track of who owes who and it becomes nearly impossible to value assets, which seems to near where we are today.  Of course this could be another head fake... or it could be the collapse we have all been looking for.

Counterfeit:  made in imitation of something else with intent to deceive:  merriam-webster
cypherdoc
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December 17, 2014, 04:01:40 AM
 #18833

“We couldn’t imagine what’s happening in our worst nightmare even a year ago,” Shvetsov, who oversees financial markets at the central bank, said yesterday.

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-16/russia-crisis-hits-pimco-fund-wipes-out-options-as-ruble-sinks.html

I've been warning  about this shit for months now right here.  The charts have been forecasting this. Get yourselves to safety.

"He said the surprise interest-rate increase in the middle of the night, a 6.5 percentage-point move that failed to stem the run on the ruble yesterday"

This proves that central banks cannot control the value of a currency.  Eventually the USD should have the same fate.

they certainly do seem to be able to bully it around for certain time periods; often longer than we can imagine.  but you're right, every once in a while they do lose control and things get ugly.  i find it very suspicious that Bitcoin popped up organically in 2009, right after the crisis.  it sure seems like it is poised to radically change the game.

Those bully tactics won't work if the majority of their populace decide that a better alternative exists.  The more and more central banks intervene, the more and more the fiat ledger gets distorted.  Eventually you lose track of who owes who and it becomes nearly impossible to value assets, which seems to near where we are today.  Of course this could be another head fake... or it could be the collapse we have all been looking for.

yeah, this one looks highly suspicious to me.  we never fixed anything in 2008, only made it worse with multiple QE's and more debt.

Greek debt is imploding along with the already imploded Argentinian & Cyprus debt.  the one that really makes this one suspicious is the currency failures we're seeing in Russia, Argentina, Venezuela, and Brazil.  we're getting down to the basic units of finance that are failing. 

on top of that, the failure of gold and silver to hold up over the last few years continues and imo is leading everything down.  i can't think of no better timing for a Black Swan like Bitcoin to have landed on the scene.
cypherdoc
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December 17, 2014, 04:21:09 AM
 #18834

obligations the must continue to be paid no matter the current environment.
This is false. The only question is where is the breaking point (and how close to it we are), not whether there is one.

"Trends that can't continue, won't"


... too much of a good thing will never be good for you.

tell that to the 0.1%
rocks
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December 17, 2014, 04:25:18 AM
 #18835

 - US bonds flows (or the lack of)

It will be very interesting to you.

Is there anything specific related to current bond flows to look at? I'm curious.

If you are responding and saying that during the next crisis the US gov will have difficulty funding operations, I'd suggest that the paradox of debt-based money will ensure the government remains funded at least for the next cycle and probably for some time.
Melbustus
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December 17, 2014, 04:31:09 AM
 #18836

...

they certainly do seem to be able to bully it around for certain time periods; often longer than we can imagine. 
...


Yup. I suspect the US will be able to wiggle out of any of these crises (or at least, weather the storm better than anyone else) until China (or whoever) is strong enough to use the opportunity to try/force a geopolitical shift. China's GDP has another 2x-4x to go before aggressively unseating the dollar wouldn't simply hurt them too much.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
Cryptoasset rankings and metrics for investors: http://onchainfx.com
HeliKopterBen
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December 17, 2014, 04:31:14 AM
 #18837

“We couldn’t imagine what’s happening in our worst nightmare even a year ago,” Shvetsov, who oversees financial markets at the central bank, said yesterday.

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-16/russia-crisis-hits-pimco-fund-wipes-out-options-as-ruble-sinks.html

I've been warning  about this shit for months now right here.  The charts have been forecasting this. Get yourselves to safety.

"He said the surprise interest-rate increase in the middle of the night, a 6.5 percentage-point move that failed to stem the run on the ruble yesterday"

This proves that central banks cannot control the value of a currency.  Eventually the USD should have the same fate.

they certainly do seem to be able to bully it around for certain time periods; often longer than we can imagine.  but you're right, every once in a while they do lose control and things get ugly.  i find it very suspicious that Bitcoin popped up organically in 2009, right after the crisis.  it sure seems like it is poised to radically change the game.

Those bully tactics won't work if the majority of their populace decide that a better alternative exists.  The more and more central banks intervene, the more and more the fiat ledger gets distorted.  Eventually you lose track of who owes who and it becomes nearly impossible to value assets, which seems to near where we are today.  Of course this could be another head fake... or it could be the collapse we have all been looking for.

yeah, this one looks highly suspicious to me.  we never fixed anything in 2008, only made it worse with multiple QE's and more debt.

Greek debt is imploding along with the already imploded Argentinian & Cyprus debt.  the one that really makes this one suspicious is the currency failures we're seeing in Russia, Argentina, Venezuela, and Brazil.  we're getting down to the basic units of finance that are failing. 

on top of that, the failure of gold and silver to hold up over the last few years continues and imo is leading everything down.  i can't think of no better timing for a Black Swan like Bitcoin to have landed on the scene.

It definitely looks primed.  Hash rate 50x higher than a year ago.  Tx rates at all time high.  Huge bull flag generated for over a year.  Third largest company in the world now accepts bitcoin.  Eight thousand locations in argentina now exchange pesos for bitcoin.  The last mini rally (ending nov 11) coincided with the highest total weekly exchange volume ever in bitcoin history (over 6 million coins traded vs just over 3 million at the previous record in nov 2013!).  And world fiat currencies may be on the brink of collapse.  The stage is set.  

The only caveat is ripple has showed surprising strength lately. Shocked

Counterfeit:  made in imitation of something else with intent to deceive:  merriam-webster
cypherdoc
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December 17, 2014, 05:07:52 AM
 #18838

“We couldn’t imagine what’s happening in our worst nightmare even a year ago,” Shvetsov, who oversees financial markets at the central bank, said yesterday.

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-16/russia-crisis-hits-pimco-fund-wipes-out-options-as-ruble-sinks.html

I've been warning  about this shit for months now right here.  The charts have been forecasting this. Get yourselves to safety.

"He said the surprise interest-rate increase in the middle of the night, a 6.5 percentage-point move that failed to stem the run on the ruble yesterday"

This proves that central banks cannot control the value of a currency.  Eventually the USD should have the same fate.

they certainly do seem to be able to bully it around for certain time periods; often longer than we can imagine.  but you're right, every once in a while they do lose control and things get ugly.  i find it very suspicious that Bitcoin popped up organically in 2009, right after the crisis.  it sure seems like it is poised to radically change the game.

Those bully tactics won't work if the majority of their populace decide that a better alternative exists.  The more and more central banks intervene, the more and more the fiat ledger gets distorted.  Eventually you lose track of who owes who and it becomes nearly impossible to value assets, which seems to near where we are today.  Of course this could be another head fake... or it could be the collapse we have all been looking for.

yeah, this one looks highly suspicious to me.  we never fixed anything in 2008, only made it worse with multiple QE's and more debt.

Greek debt is imploding along with the already imploded Argentinian & Cyprus debt.  the one that really makes this one suspicious is the currency failures we're seeing in Russia, Argentina, Venezuela, and Brazil.  we're getting down to the basic units of finance that are failing. 

on top of that, the failure of gold and silver to hold up over the last few years continues and imo is leading everything down.  i can't think of no better timing for a Black Swan like Bitcoin to have landed on the scene.

It definitely looks primed.  Hash rate 50x higher than a year ago.  Tx rates at all time high.  Huge bull flag generated for over a year.  Third largest company in the world now accepts bitcoin.  Eight thousand locations in argentina now exchange pesos for bitcoin.  The last mini rally (ending nov 11) coincided with the highest total weekly exchange volume ever in bitcoin history (over 6 million coins traded vs just over 3 million at the previous record in nov 2013!).  And world fiat currencies may be on the brink of collapse.  The stage is set.  

The only caveat is ripple has showed surprising strength lately. Shocked

yeah, Ripple and Stellar.  what the heck is that?  esp after Stellar contracted down to one node?
smooth
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December 17, 2014, 06:57:24 AM
 #18839

yeah, Ripple and Stellar.  what the heck is that?  esp after Stellar contracted down to one node?

Don't forget that centralized systems are still thousands of times bigger than bitcoin. So there is a big market potentially even if the whole thing runs entirely on one node.
molecular
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December 17, 2014, 07:18:52 AM
 #18840

i find it very suspicious that Bitcoin popped up organically in 2009, right after the crisis.

Suspicious how? Satoshi's rhetoric (right down to the genesis block quote) was clearly directed right at the heart of the crisis. Whether that was really a motivation for the project or opportunistic marketing is unclear though.


suspicious in the sense of "fate".  or, as in, perfect timing. 

suspicious as in "a cash payment is a suspicious transaction"?

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
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